Vladimir Putin, madman, genius, or both? [Archive]

The Atheist

10th October 2006, 12:11 AM

bozothedeathmachine

10th October 2006, 06:22 AM

I'm a little surprised no mention has been made of it ...

http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=65566
</suave>

Maybe the silence is from total lack of surprise?

Rob Lister

10th October 2006, 06:27 AM

A few years back we had "Mad Vlad" who wanted to shoot all Jews with an "atomic gun". Fortunately, his insane nationalist party crumbled with Vlad and Yeltsin became President.

Now we have the good-looking, articulate, self-satisfied former FSB man Vladimir Putin, undisputed leader of Russia.Funny how his critics keep turning up dead. (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/search/story.cfm?storyid=000CB07D-6814-1529-8F8283027AF1FE9F)

Some things about Putin I like, some not so much. A couple of his put-downs of Dubbya a few months back were classics and I was prepared to let him have some leeway as a result, ...

Ah, the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Don't worry, I'm sure Putin will pay Bush a few more public insults to get back into your and other's good graces, thus clearly the way for a few more of his acts that, had Bush done far, far less than the same, you would [once again?] call for impeachment and/or otherthrow.

Clearly, that seems to do the trick. A diverse form of skepticism that. We should respect diversity. I'm sure Putin does.

The Atheist

10th October 2006, 10:55 AM

http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=65566
</suave>

Maybe the silence is from total lack of surprise?Sure, but it does go to show that nobody has any interest in the subject in here. I'm not exactly an infrequent poster, yet that thread dropped out of sight before I even noticed it - with a grand total of three replies.

Conforms to the pattern

The Atheist

10th October 2006, 11:00 AM

Ah, the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Don't worry, I'm sure Putin will pay Bush a few more public insults to get back into your and other's good graces, thus clearly the way for a few more of his acts that, had Bush done far, far less than the same, you would [once again?] call for impeachment and/or otherthrow.

Clearly, that seems to do the trick. A diverse form of skepticism that. We should respect diversity. I'm sure Putin does.What impeachment? What overthrow?

I'm 10,000 km from USA, I could give a flying f*** who runs the place. Anyone taking the piss out of Dubbya is great - though it can't be all that hard to do!

I just had the opinion that Putin might be a change for the better in Russia. Not as though the great bear doesn't need a bit of good stuff after the last couple of hundred years.

Pretty easy to tell which side your bread's buttered.

senorpogo

10th October 2006, 11:13 AM

Yeah, I was pretty embarrassed reading about this yesterday.

Paul Klebnikov, the U.S.-born editor of Forbes Magazine in Russia, was shot dead in Moscow in July 2004. Klebnikov was at the time the 11th journalist to be murdered in a contract-style killing since Putin took office in 2000.

I mean, I could understand bein uninformed about two or three contract murders of journalists oppossed to Putin, but the fact that I missed the first ten tells me that maybe I should be paying more attention to world news.

So how realistic is it that Putin, or someone in the Kremlin at least, is behind this? I know Putin was once something of a former KGB strong arm thug who did his utmost to restore domestic Russian power back to the Kremlin. And I've also read that some worry he may not relinquish the reigns of power when his time is up. So is plausible/probable that Russia slips into some kind of totalitarian state in the coming years? Or is that just "the sky is falling" paranoia? If there's anyone with greater knowledge than mine, please assist in educating me.

Or should we just start a thread on Israel and Palenstine instead?

Upchurch

10th October 2006, 11:30 AM

The Atheist

10th October 2006, 11:59 AM

Yeah, I was pretty embarrassed reading about this yesterday.

I mean, I could understand bein uninformed about two or three contract murders of journalists oppossed to Putin, but the fact that I missed the first ten tells me that maybe I should be paying more attention to world news.

So how realistic is it that Putin, or someone in the Kremlin at least, is behind this? I know Putin was once something of a former KGB strong arm thug who did his utmost to restore domestic Russian power back to the Kremlin. And I've also read that some worry he may not relinquish the reigns of power when his time is up. So is plausible/probable that Russia slips into some kind of totalitarian state in the coming years? Or is that just "the sky is falling" paranoia? If there's anyone with greater knowledge than mine, please assist in educating me.

Or should we just start a thread on Israel and Palenstine instead?My point exactly - if this thread had started with a Middle-Eastern tone, it would now be 110 pages long - nobody cares about Russia any more, which is interesting after a "Cold War" of 45-odd years. Maybe people just think the bear's dead, never to ressurrect.

Your points about Putin are bang on - he's a KGB/FSB thug who has lots of friends in strange places. Under his rule/sponsorship, guys like Roman Abramovich have managed to amass enormous fortunes and the "Russian mafia" has become the new KGB.

One of those areas where a real crystal-ball gazer would be helpful. Given that Putin has re-commenced spending on the Russian military and is trying very hard to get Georgia, Lithuania and Ukraine re-assimilated into Russia, it'd be fascinating to think where Russia might be in ten years' time.

Think about a hypothetical scenario. USA's economy is not in good shape and Iraq is going to bleed it for several years yet, by the looks of the current situation, so where is the US going to be financially and militarily in ten years?

I just find it particularly interesting that very few people seem to notice or care that this is going on.

Ziggurat

10th October 2006, 12:54 PM

Maybe people just think the bear's dead, never to ressurrect.

The bear IS dead (if you have any doubts, just look at their demographic implosion). The real question is, what kind of stink will its rotting carcass make, and which buzzards are going to come feed on it?

Darth Rotor

10th October 2006, 01:06 PM

I just find it particularly interesting that very few people seem to notice or care that this is going on.
I find China a far more disturbing problem for US political long term interests than Russia, with whom US should be working toward a better relationship, not moving away from.

DR

Tricky

10th October 2006, 01:13 PM

The bear IS dead (if you have any doubts, just look at their demographic implosion). The real question is, what kind of stink will its rotting carcass make, and which buzzards are going to come feed on it?
From what I understand, the Russian Mafia has near total control. Based on the gangland-style killings, I can't dispute this.

Darth Rotor

10th October 2006, 01:31 PM

From what I understand, the Russian Mafia has near total control. Based on the gangland-style killings, I can't dispute this.

Russia has been described by some as the world's biggest third world nation, thanks to its current power structure.

Nigeria, but colder? :confused:

DR

geni

10th October 2006, 01:36 PM

Now we have the good-looking, articulate, self-satisfied former FSB man Vladimir Putin, undisputed leader of Russia.Funny how his critics keep turning up dead. (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/search/story.cfm?storyid=000CB07D-6814-1529-8F8283027AF1FE9F)

A few do.A few end up in prison. The rest are careful

Some things about Putin I like, some not so much.

Which is odd since Putin is consitant.

A couple of his put-downs of Dubbya a few months back were classics and I was prepared to let him have some leeway as a result,

As a general rule giving a cold calculateing bastard like Putin leeway of any type is a bad move.

but this latest murder, on Putin's birthday, of his harshest critic, does bother me.

There are other suspects (mostly people involved in chechen politics).

I'm a little surprised no mention has been made of it and I thought I'd throw it out to see if anyone cares or has an opinion.

On what? The killing? Surely that should be fairly obvious.

Putin? Smart, not nice but has done quite a good job of starting to pull Russia out of the Yeltsin chaos.

geni

10th October 2006, 01:40 PM

Russia has been described by some as the world's biggest third world nation, thanks to its current power structure.

Nigeria, but colder? :confused:

DR

Doesn't have the religious issues. Russsia is unique. Half mess half order.

The Atheist

10th October 2006, 02:26 PM

The bear IS dead (if you have any doubts, just look at their demographic implosion). The real question is, what kind of stink will its rotting carcass make, and which buzzards are going to come feed on it?What makes you say that? The amount of money floating around in the wrong hands would suggest otherwise.

The Atheist

10th October 2006, 02:28 PM

Russia has been described by some as the world's biggest third world nation, thanks to its current power structure.

Nigeria, but colder? :confused:

DRI think a cold Nigeria isn't too far off the mark, given the massive oil reserves both countries hold.

The Atheist

10th October 2006, 02:30 PM

Doesn't have the religious issues. Russsia is unique. Half mess half order."I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest." Winston Churchill, October 1945.

Still applies - I don't think many non-Russians have any idea what's really going on.

Darth Rotor

10th October 2006, 02:31 PM

Doesn't have the religious issues. Russsia is unique. Half mess half order.
True enough. I get the sense the Russia is still trying to refind its feet. When she does, standby world.

DR

The Atheist

10th October 2006, 02:45 PM

I find China a far more disturbing problem for US political long term interests than Russia, with whom US should be working toward a better relationship, not moving away from.No worries. China and NZ are best buddies - we are the country of "Three Firsts" with China - so all you'll need to do is be our friend and China will be yours!

andyandy

10th October 2006, 03:00 PM

Vladimir Putin, madman, genius, or both?

mad? No

genius? No

mad genius? No

he seems pretty rational, pretty intelligent and pretty unsavory.....

The Atheist

10th October 2006, 03:03 PM

he seems pretty rational, pretty intelligent and pretty unsavory.....Does the news out of Russia create waves in UK at all? Seems to hardly create a ripple in USA, yet here we get plenty of news. (mind you nothing ever happens here!)

Ziggurat

10th October 2006, 03:22 PM

What makes you say that? The amount of money floating around in the wrong hands would suggest otherwise.

Like I said: the rotting carcass is going to give off a stink. But Russia is in the process of undergoing a slow collapse. Putin can do little to nothing to stop it, but he knows what the real problem (for Russia) is at least, and that's demographics. It's collapsing. Birth rates are FAR below replacement rates. Their population has already decreased, and it's going to decrease a lot more. There have been reports that the abortion rates are higher than the live birth rates. That is NOT the sign of a healthy society. With a shrinking population, how can they achieve anything other than shrinking influence? They cannot, and they will not. Demographics is destiny.

The Atheist

10th October 2006, 03:50 PM

I'll take your word for that - I know lots of Russians are migrating, we get heaps coming over here to live.

geni

10th October 2006, 04:00 PM

True enough. I get the sense the Russia is still trying to refind its feet. When she does, standby world.

DR

Not really. In the short term russia might be able to stablise as an oil and gas producer but I can't see russia being a player the size that it once was.

geni

10th October 2006, 04:01 PM

No worries. China and NZ are best buddies - we are the country of "Three Firsts" with China - so all you'll need to do is be our friend and China will be yours!

Not so. In practice your geopolitical importance is sod all.

geni

10th October 2006, 04:03 PM

Like I said: the rotting carcass is going to give off a stink. But Russia is in the process of undergoing a slow collapse. Putin can do little to nothing to stop it,

I don't know. He apears to be trying to put together some for of enconomy based on oil exports.

Demographics is destiny.

And nukes will buy you a place on the top table for a long time to come.

Ziggurat

10th October 2006, 04:14 PM

I don't know. He apears to be trying to put together some for of enconomy based on oil exports.

How on earth will oil money stop a population implosion, it it's done nothing to slow it down so far? It won't.

And nukes will buy you a place on the top table for a long time to come.

Sure. Russia's decline is not going to be quick, that's true, but it's looking inevitable nonetheless.

The Atheist

10th October 2006, 04:15 PM

Not so. In practice your geopolitical importance is sod all.Bit like your sense of humour, I presume...

peptoabysmal

10th October 2006, 09:52 PM

One of those areas where a real crystal-ball gazer would be helpful. Given that Putin has re-commenced spending on the Russian military and is trying very hard to get Georgia, Lithuania and Ukraine re-assimilated into Russia, it'd be fascinating to think where Russia might be in ten years' time.

Think about a hypothetical scenario. USA's economy is not in good shape and Iraq is going to bleed it for several years yet, by the looks of the current situation, so where is the US going to be financially and militarily in ten years?

I just find it particularly interesting that very few people seem to notice or care that this is going on.
I've noticed, but couldn't get anyone interested. I think the cold war is alive and flourishing.

PogoPedant

10th October 2006, 10:44 PM

Let's see.

Russia is a large nation with ample natural resources. The population is poor and unemployed, but many of them are proud of Russia's history, at least the part where Russia is the great and noble empire that most choose to remember. Moreover, Russia is currently a democracy, but the people see this as more of a transitional thing than a good system. (I wish I had references for that, but this is from interviews I've seen).

The People want a strong Russia. There's a strong and ruthless leader on the top. There are natural resources everywhere you look and enemies at just about every border.

Can anybody think of any parallells? Godwin, mayhaps?

I think Russia can become all kinds of bad news before it eventually collapses.

The Atheist

10th October 2006, 11:25 PM

I've noticed, but couldn't get anyone interested. I think the cold war is alive and flourishing.Yeah, well the number of posts tell the story of the interest level - not much. As was pointed out, if this was about Israel, Palestine or Iraq, it would be 29 pages, not 29 posts.

This Putin is a cunning b'stard, I feel, and he has an awful lot of firepower, including ICBMs. Also, he's ramped the spending on subs right up, which if you want strategic weapons, is quite smart.

Looks like it's you and me and not many others. It wouldn't surprise me if Western powers don't regret not being more interested in the future. Opinions like ziggurat's seem to be the rule rather than the exception and I see them as pretty naive when the coutry which is "collapsing" still holds the second-largest nuclear arsenal. Look at all the fuss about North Korea having one or two primitive nukes. Russia still has hundreds.

geni

11th October 2006, 04:58 AM

How on earth will oil money stop a population implosion, it it's done nothing to slow it down so far? It won't.

It doesn't need to. You don't need a large population for an oil based economy.

Ziggurat

11th October 2006, 07:09 AM

It doesn't need to. You don't need a large population for an oil based economy.

The economy isn't the problem. Security is.

geni

11th October 2006, 08:33 AM

The economy isn't the problem. Security is.

Not really. The various surounding countries can be held of with nukes or bribed into towing the line. As for other threats there are only a few hundred thousand chechen left.

Ziggurat

11th October 2006, 08:44 AM

Not really. The various surounding countries can be held of with nukes or bribed into towing the line.

And that's worked to stop Islamic radicals - when?

The security problem isn't state actors, it's non-state actors. Especially among immigrant populations. And believe me, with an imploding population, Russia is going to get immigrants. Where are they going to come from? Not Europe, that's for sure. They're going to come from the Stans.

geni

11th October 2006, 04:28 PM

And that's worked to stop Islamic radicals - when?

Objectively Islamic radicals are not that big a problem. They so rarely kill more than a few hundred people.

No russia has enough conventional force on hand to keep the problem of islamic radicals down to a reasonable level.

The security problem isn't state actors, it's non-state actors. Especially among immigrant populations. And believe me, with an imploding population, Russia is going to get immigrants. Where are they going to come from? Not Europe, that's for sure. They're going to come from the Stans.

Not so far and in any case you are only going to get imigrants if you have jobs

Ziggurat

11th October 2006, 04:40 PM

Objectively Islamic radicals are not that big a problem. They so rarely kill more than a few hundred people.

Uh... no, that's not true. They kill a LOT of people, on a fairly regular basis. It's just easy to ignore because most of the time, it's other muslims (or Africans) that they're killing, not westerners.

No russia has enough conventional force on hand to keep the problem of islamic radicals down to a reasonable level.

Troop numbers aren't enough when the radicals infiltrate your own population centers. Sure, they won't get conquered any time soon. But think: what's Russia going to look like in 50 years? The ethnic Russian population will have decreased significantly, and it will be older too. There will probably be lots of immigrants from the Stans, and they will be much younger and their numbers will be growing. If these guys get radicalized successfully, what exactly can the Russian military do about it?

Not so far and in any case you are only going to get imigrants if you have jobs

There will be jobs. Russia's oil wealth, along with an aging population which creates a heavier and heavier welfare burden on a shrinking workforce, will see to that.

geni

11th October 2006, 04:54 PM

Troop numbers aren't enough when the radicals infiltrate your own population centers. Sure, they won't get conquered any time soon. But think: what's Russia going to look like in 50 years? The ethnic Russian population will have decreased significantly, and it will be older too. There will probably be lots of immigrants from the Stans, and they will be much younger and their numbers will be growing. If these guys get radicalized successfully, what exactly can the Russian military do about it?

Win. At least if they have someone like Putin in charge. It wouln't be pretty (see Grozny) but if you are prepared to accept civilian casulties the problem can be delt with with only limted diffifulty..

There will be jobs. Russia's oil wealth, [quote]

You can exploit that with a fairly small workforce.

[quote]
along with an aging population which creates a heavier and heavier welfare burden on a shrinking workforce, will see to that.

Russia also has a falling life expectancy.

Ziggurat

11th October 2006, 05:22 PM

You can exploit that with a fairly small workforce.

The oil itself, yes. The economy as a whole, no.

Russia also has a falling life expectancy.

I don't think that improves things for them, and because of the fantastically low birth rate, I don't think it stops the average age from drifting upwards either. Rather, I think it's a sign that, despite the oil wealth, they aren't doing very well even now.

peptoabysmal

11th October 2006, 09:03 PM

Yeah, well the number of posts tell the story of the interest level - not much. As was pointed out, if this was about Israel, Palestine or Iraq, it would be 29 pages, not 29 posts.

This Putin is a cunning b'stard, I feel, and he has an awful lot of firepower, including ICBMs. Also, he's ramped the spending on subs right up, which if you want strategic weapons, is quite smart.

Looks like it's you and me and not many others. It wouldn't surprise me if Western powers don't regret not being more interested in the future. Opinions like ziggurat's seem to be the rule rather than the exception and I see them as pretty naive when the coutry which is "collapsing" still holds the second-largest nuclear arsenal. Look at all the fuss about North Korea having one or two primitive nukes. Russia still has hundreds.
Honestly, I think the US government is fully aware of the chess game they are playing, but hasn't been forthcoming with information because it would just be more bad press. "...not only has the Bush administration blah blah, but they have re-ignited the cold war blah blah blah..."
The second document (CMPC-2004-001117) is a typed account, signed by Deputy Foreign Minister Hammam Abdel Khaleq, that states that the Russian ambassador has told the Iraqis that the United States was planning to deploy its force into Iraq from Basra in the South and up the Euphrates, and would avoid entering major cities on the way to Baghdad, which is, in fact what happened. The documents also state "Americans are also planning on taking control of the oil fields in Kirkuk." The information was obtained by the Russians from "sources at U.S. Central Command in Doha, Qatar," according to the document.
Did Russian Ambassador Give Saddam the U.S. War Plan? (http://abcnews.go.com/International/IraqCoverage/story?id=1734490&page=1)

I want a good explanation for this, but it's like no one cares...

a_unique_person

12th October 2006, 02:44 AM

A few years back we had "Mad Vlad" who wanted to shoot all Jews with an "atomic gun". Fortunately, his insane nationalist party crumbled with Vlad and Yeltsin became President.

Now we have the good-looking, articulate, self-satisfied former FSB man Vladimir Putin, undisputed leader of Russia.Funny how his critics keep turning up dead. (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/search/story.cfm?storyid=000CB07D-6814-1529-8F8283027AF1FE9F)

Some things about Putin I like, some not so much. A couple of his put-downs of Dubbya a few months back were classics and I was prepared to let him have some leeway as a result, but this latest murder, on Putin's birthday, of his harshest critic, does bother me. I'm a little surprised no mention has been made of it and I thought I'd throw it out to see if anyone cares or has an opinion.

Russia is a mess, it tried to change too quickly from Communist to radical free enterprise. China is a better example of how to do it. Now that the place is in chaos, the Russian people seem to prefer a strongman who can at least hold the place together in one piece. Lesser of two evils kind of thing, perhaps. He is a ruthless, almost, dictator, but that is what they appear to want for now.