62% sure god exists

[FarSideOfTheMoon]

I noticed this story in that bastion of science, The Sun, today, but I can't find the source.

I'm 62% sure there's a god

Boffins have calculated there is a 62% chance that God exists.

They used mathematical probability formulas to analyse the evidence for and against across five areas - creation, evolution, good and evil, and religious experiences.

The German researchers then worked out the answers to questions such as "How probable is it that the evolution of life took place without God?" and "How probable is it that God created the universe?"

They combined all the results - published yesterday in science magazine PM - and came up with the figure of 62 per cent in favour of God existing.

I could have told them not to bother with their forumulas, but I was still interested read the assumptions these 'Scientists' were working with. Has anyone heard of PM magazine?

ETA: It doesn't actually say they were scientists, that was my probably invalid assumption. Heck, they probably aren't even mathematicians.

[ImaginalDisc]

I noticed this story in that bastion of science, The Sun, today, but I can't find the source.



I could have told them not to bother with their forumulas, but I was still interested read the assumptions these 'Scientists' were working with. Has anyone heard of PM magazine?

62% sure of which god existing? This isn't an either/or problem.

[Orangutan]

Shenanigans!
'Calculated' is a 4 syllable word and therefore was never printed in the Sun. I demand more proof, scan Page 3 and put the JPG here as proof!

(Please don't I'm just kidding I'm at work!) ;)

[zizzybaluba]

There was a bit about this "study" in Dawkins' The God Delusion. If I recall correctly, the variables used were quite fuzzy and subjective.

[Glen.Nogami]

Yeah, called a Bayesian argument.

The book [The Probability of God]is better seen as a "How To" manual, a sort of Bayes' Theorem for Dummies, using the existance of God as a semi-facetious case study.

Apparently, these are different people, since Stephen Unwin (Author of the book) got 67%, instead of 62%.

The basic idea is that you combine various subjectively determined probabilities, multiply them together and such, and get a number or numbers about what is and is not true. The problem with applying this to a god hypothesis is garbage in, garbage out.

[andyandy]

good old Sun and their "boffins" :)

[zizzybaluba]

Yeah, called a Bayesian argument.



Apparently, these are different people, since Stephen Unwin (Author of the book) got 67%, instead of 62%.

The basic idea is that you combine various subjectively determined probabilities, multiply them together and such, and get a number or numbers about what is and is not true. The problem with applying this to a god hypothesis is garbage in, garbage out.

That's it. I couldn't remember exactly off the top of my head and I don't have the book with me at the moment.

[Moochie]

Avast you lubbers!

I know who you are and I saw what you did!

M. (aka Jezuuus!)

[Kopji]

Yeah Bayesian. People are making money on this.

They start with a 50/50 probability of there being a god, instead of near zero where it should be. God gets a 50 free point head start.

So maybe it should be 15% to 17% chance of there being a god, tops.

[Paul C. Anagnostopoulos]

Was it really 62%, or did some doofus round that from 61.967%?

~~ Paul

[DangerousBeliefs]

So maybe it should be 15% to 17% chance of there being a god, tops.

I'd like to see the evidence for that 15-17%.

Best I've seen is:

1) Bible says God exists.
2) God is 100% correct.
3) Bible is 100% correct.
4) God exists!

[Kopji]

:D
And my guess should have been 12%

[grayman]

42% do not believe in statistical polls.

[kurious_kathy]

Best I've seen is:

1) Bible says God exists.
2) God is 100% correct.
3) Bible is 100% correct.
4) God exists!

I'm in full agreement with you here! Also I don't think people should discount that God does reward those who dilligently seek Him. If you will ever get to a point where you can take it on faith, God has a way of letting us know He's really there.

[Foster Zygote]

62% sure of which god existing? This isn't an either/or problem.

Hanuman, of course.

[slingblade]

I'm in full agreement with you here! Also I don't think people should discount that God does reward those who dilligently seek Him. If you will ever get to a point where you can take it on faith, God has a way of letting us know He's really there.

Sigh. Kathy, hon, that's called circular logic and is wrong.

[DangerousBeliefs]

I'm in full agreement with you here! Also I don't think people should discount that God does reward those who dilligently seek Him. If you will ever get to a point where you can take it on faith, God has a way of letting us know He's really there.

Uh, what rewards?

Uh, how do you know you've found Him (if there is no evidence She's there)?

What way(s) does He make Herself known?

Perhaps most importantly, if you are having a conversation, how do you know it's just one god you're talking to?

[KillerBob]

I'm in full agreement with you here! Also I don't think people should discount that God does reward those who dilligently seek Him. If you will ever get to a point where you can take it on faith, God has a way of letting us know He's really there.

You see, the problem is that his rewards are so random, it's almost as if he's not there at all. Hmmm, maybe that's something to ponder...

And as far as taking g-daddy on faith, I don't need to get to that point. I spent the first twenty years of my life brimming with christian faith and the benevolent, invisible sky-buddy didn't bother doing anything to let me know he was there. So we'll scratch faith off the list, next suggestion?

[burrahobbit]

Ganesha is better!!

It seems rather improbable that anyone can calculate the improbability of the existence of God.

However, with the help of a hot cup of tea........

[Foster Zygote]

Ganesha is better!!

Please do not offer my god a peanut!

[Beerina]

62% sure god exists

How does one define "sure"?

[Beerina]

I'm in full agreement with you here! Also I don't think people should discount that God does reward those who dilligently seek Him. If you will ever get to a point where you can take it on faith, God has a way of letting us know He's really there.

Will you feel good sitting there in Heaven, watching otherwise decent folk being heaved into Hell simply because they would not believe in God?

Why would such a being be deserving of worship? Are you scared of Him (God-as-terrorist)? Or just seeking rewards (God-as-sugar-daddy)?

[Darat]

I think this has been discussed in this thread: http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=57501&highlight=Bayesian+god+exists

[TragicMonkey]

I fear everyone's misreading the statistics. The discovery is that there is definitely 100% certainty that God exists--but only 62% of him does. He was involved in an industrial accident and 38% of himself was obliterated from existence. Unfortunately, that missing 38% includes the brain. Since he's immortal, it didn't kill him, but he's not really up to doing much besides lying there in Heaven, twitching what limbs remain to him.

[Iamme]

I'm in full agreement with you here! Also I don't think people should discount that God does reward those who dilligently seek Him. If you will ever get to a point where you can take it on faith, God has a way of letting us know He's really there.

Has he ever let YOU know?

[Iamme]

How does one define "sure"?

"Certain"?

[Iamme]

Will you feel good sitting there in Heaven, watching otherwise decent folk being heaved into Hell simply because they would not believe in God?

The Bible supposedly is inspired by God. If man came from God, then it would be automatic that the Bible would have to be inspired by God (since everything came from God and would contain God-given 'information'). But mistakes in inspired interpretation were made, I am sure. Man may have been on the right IDEA when it came to certain premises. For example, man knew from visual experience that wrongdoings, evil, and mistakes were rewarded by injury, punishment, or death. Out of this came a twisted tale of their being this fiery lake to whom red colored demons with horns and tails would toss into this lake, (or God wold toss in, including the demons) all people who did not obey God.

It is quite inconceivable, from a standpoint of logic, that any creator who claimed he loves each and every one of us, would not simply reward the good, and let the dead remain dead, and leave it go at that. There is no logic that any man would be recreated after teh first death with nerve-endings again, to be able to feel the pain of fire, and never be consumed by it, and be screaming in agony for trillions upon trillions of years, because the person who died at the age of 17 in a car accidnet, who happened to be a Eddie Haskel type, never turned his life over to the Lord.

[CP489]

Further than that Iamme, there is no crime on earth so obscene and substantial to warrent a punishment that lasts for eternity. A just god could not do such a thing.

[strathmeyer]

Everyone knows the one true god has a 92% chance of existing. Sheesh.

[SezMe]

No! It is only 91.5778856577% Sheesh.

[Zamzara]

The Bible supposedly is inspired by God. If man came from God, then it would be automatic that the Bible would have to be inspired by God (since everything came from God and would contain God-given 'information').

In that case, it would be automatic that the Spice Girls movie also came from God.