qayak
9th January 2007, 06:37 PM
I couldn't decide whether to put this in the Science section or here. I decided on the latter because the discussion is philosophical although based on math and science.
In his book The Varieties of Scientific Experience, Carl Sagan puts forth an interesting point when discussing the possibility of there being other life in the universe and how we would go about making contact.
He uses a simple probability formula to decide the chances of other life existing. The idea is that a collective probability is the product of the individual probabilities.
He lists and defines each factor such as; the rate of star formation, the number of stars with planetary systems, the number of planets in an average system that are suitable for life, . . ., the average lifetime of a technological civilization.
He points out that the largest uncertainty in the whole formula is the average lifetime of a techical civilization simply because if technology destroys civilization relatively early in their lifetime, there is zero chance of communication with other life.
When you think about this it is quite staggering. We are a technological civilization. Technology is one of the things that seperates humans from other animals. Life has been on the planet for several billion years, humans have been here for 130,000 years and yet it is only in the last half century that we have had the capability to communicate with other planets.
The second part of the problem is that even if there is life in a very close system that is capable of communication, it will take a few hundred years for one to contact us or vice versa. So, two way communication will take several hundred years. Up until that time, the conversation will be completely one sided and the sender of the message will have no way of knowing it was received until the return message is received. Any technological civilization that destroys itself in less than a few hundred years will not be able to communicate.
So, even though the chances of other life being out there could be very high, our chances of contact with them are almost zero because after only 50 years of communicating ability, we are on the verge of destroying ourselves through nuclear weapons and global warming. Think of how many more problems we will encounter before that several hundred years is up.
He then points out that it maybe a system that develops intelligence but not technology, for instance, a planet where the highest intelligence is in a whale, would have to be considered the "most" intelligent in the universe based simply on longevity. How intelligent can you be if you destroy yourself early in your lifetime?
We just don't know what the average lifespan of a technical civilization is.
This is a great book. :)
In his book The Varieties of Scientific Experience, Carl Sagan puts forth an interesting point when discussing the possibility of there being other life in the universe and how we would go about making contact.
He uses a simple probability formula to decide the chances of other life existing. The idea is that a collective probability is the product of the individual probabilities.
He lists and defines each factor such as; the rate of star formation, the number of stars with planetary systems, the number of planets in an average system that are suitable for life, . . ., the average lifetime of a technological civilization.
He points out that the largest uncertainty in the whole formula is the average lifetime of a techical civilization simply because if technology destroys civilization relatively early in their lifetime, there is zero chance of communication with other life.
When you think about this it is quite staggering. We are a technological civilization. Technology is one of the things that seperates humans from other animals. Life has been on the planet for several billion years, humans have been here for 130,000 years and yet it is only in the last half century that we have had the capability to communicate with other planets.
The second part of the problem is that even if there is life in a very close system that is capable of communication, it will take a few hundred years for one to contact us or vice versa. So, two way communication will take several hundred years. Up until that time, the conversation will be completely one sided and the sender of the message will have no way of knowing it was received until the return message is received. Any technological civilization that destroys itself in less than a few hundred years will not be able to communicate.
So, even though the chances of other life being out there could be very high, our chances of contact with them are almost zero because after only 50 years of communicating ability, we are on the verge of destroying ourselves through nuclear weapons and global warming. Think of how many more problems we will encounter before that several hundred years is up.
He then points out that it maybe a system that develops intelligence but not technology, for instance, a planet where the highest intelligence is in a whale, would have to be considered the "most" intelligent in the universe based simply on longevity. How intelligent can you be if you destroy yourself early in your lifetime?
We just don't know what the average lifespan of a technical civilization is.
This is a great book. :)