Can McCain be front-runner and sleeper candidate all at once?

[hgc]

Look at how he does it! Falls asleep during SOTU. Oops. Just in time to make his age an issue in the campaign.

http://thinkprogress.org/2007/01/24/mccain-falls-asleep/

[davefoc]

I don't think McCain is going to get the nomination.

DR mentioned the Keating five thing in another thread. That sounds like enough of a scandal to cause McCain problems if it gets close.

Besides that McCain is looking mighty old and this picture won't help things along those lines.

McCain doesn't look all that strong in early polling either:
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/01/parsing_the_polls_inside_the_0.html?nav=rss_blog

[Puppycow]

I don't think McCain is going to get the nomination.
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/01/parsing_the_polls_inside_the_0.html?nav=rss_blog

If not McCain, who? Giuliani? Somehow I just can't trust these current polls yet. I think it just means that most people aren't even giving serious thought to it yet, and are answering based on some vague remembrence of how that Giuliani fellow said and did the right things after 9/11.

Also, I don't think age is such a big issue with Republicans. Remember Reagan and Dole?

[Kopji]

I'm not bothering to post much against McCain, that should tell what I think his chances of winning are.

The screamingly riotous thing is that a lot of his criticism comes from the religious right. They don't trust him even though he supports causes that would make a Taleban Mullah bless him. Sheesh, what does he have to do gain their endorsement? (of a non sexual nature)

[steverino]

Some faulted Clinton for sleeping with the wrong person, and now we fault McCain for sleeping by himself. Wake up America!

[hgc]

I think the Republican field has some filling in to do that we haven't noticed yet. McCain will sink with his trademark war. Giuliani and Romney are non-starters with the theocrats, as is McCain with a lot of them. Gingrich is, well, Gingrich. Brownback is a schoolmarm in pants. Where are the real contenders?

[timhau]

Also, I don't think age is such a big issue with Republicans. Remember Reagan and Dole?

Dole lost, and in 2008 McCain will be three years older than Reagan was in 1980.

[Lemastre]

Some faulted Clinton for sleeping with the wrong person, and now we fault McCain for sleeping by himself. Wake up America!It wasn't sleeping that got Bill Clinton in hot water.

[hgc]

Dole lost, and in 2008 McCain will be three years older than Reagan was in 1980.
It's hard to judge by past results. Reagan seemed especially vigorous for his age in 1980, and he had Jimmy Carter to contend with (easy pickins'). McCain also seems pretty vigorous. If he doesn't make a habit of snoozing off and doesn't get another bout of skin cancer, I can't see how age will figure into it too much.

[steverino]

I think the Republican field has some filling in to do that we haven't noticed yet. McCain will sink with his trademark war. Giuliani and Romney are non-starters with the theocrats, as is McCain with a lot of them. Gingrich is, well, Gingrich. Brownback is a schoolmarm in pants. Where are the real contenders?

HE could have been a contender.

[hgc]

Oh! I forgot Hegel. He may slide into home plate. I don't think the theocrats will contest his conservative credentials, and he's gaining a lot of admiration in other circles for his hint of reality-based foreign policy notions.

[Puppycow]

I think the Republican field has some filling in to do that we haven't noticed yet. McCain will sink with his trademark war. Giuliani and Romney are non-starters with the theocrats, as is McCain with a lot of them. Gingrich is, well, Gingrich. Brownback is a schoolmarm in pants. Where are the real contenders?

In other words, McCain by default. I'm talking about the nomination here. I don't think the republican nominee will win the White House.

Hegel is a bit counterintuitive. He might win the general election, but I don't see how he could win the primary because hawkinsh republicans think he's a traitor.

He's the anti-Lieberman. (Maybe that means he could win by running as an independent.)

My prediction is that Obama will be the next president.

[steverino]

My prediction is that Obama will be the next president.

Yes, I agree that if everything in two years is exactly like it is at this moment he is invincible. But he is attractive because he is refreshing. But...will he continue with building the immigration fence? Tear it down?
What if the gay communities in large cities start marching in the thousands for gay marriage, forcing the issue during the election. He will almost have to say he will be for it, but that will cost him a huge chunk of kooky-Christian votes.
And what, gosh forbid, if there is another 9/11 type terrorist attack in America, say, 4 months before the election. Will he come across tough enough to middle-America? Suppose a rumor surfaces that he cheated on his wife, or his taxes, even if it was just a rumor? Would voters say, "Oh, no. Not again." And take a pass?

I do not wish him ill, but ***** happens, plus, he will have to take some tough stands when things heat up.

[Puppycow]

I certainly wouldn't bet my "farm" on him winning. Yes, preditions are very tough. Especially about the future.

(Apologies to Yogi Berra.)

[steverino]

I certainly wouldn't bet my "farm" on him winning. Yes, preditions are very tough. Especially about the future.

(Apologies to Yogi Berra.)

Well, when you reach an intersection in the road, take it!

[Darth Rotor]

Can McCain be front-runner and sleeper candidate all at once?
It appears that the answer to that question is still

Yes.

DR

[davefoc]

one year ago:
I don't think McCain is going to get the nomination.

Hmm, looks like another credibility hit for me there.

I still think Romney is more of a contender than it looks like right now. The power of Romney's calculated insincerity can't be discounted.

[Gnu World Order]

Nor can the power of Mitt's millions.

[Darth Rotor]

Nor can the power of Mitt's millions.

Really?

Ever hear of Steve Forbes?

A guy more recently looking at self financing, a New York gent named Bloomberg?

DR

[Puppycow]

In other words, McCain by default.
I'm amazed by my own prescience! :duck:
Here's hoping my other prediction turns out to have been equally prescient:My prediction is that Obama will be the next president.

[SezMe]

Look at how he does it! Falls asleep during SOTU.
I think your interpretation of that vid is invalid. The Senators and Representatives had copies of his speech and this video - which is quite short - could just be him looking down at his copy. I saw others doing the same thing.

Look, I thing McCain's age is a real issue but I don't think this video contributes to the discussion.