Big Les
14th April 2007, 06:56 AM
I recently started a thread here (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=79480) about an episode of the risible "Psychic Private Eyes" that dealt with the death of George Gray at Deepcut Army Barracks in 2001. This was one of four deaths over a period of several years that led to controversy in the media and allegations of institutional abuse and bullying. Naturally enough, this has attracted its own conspiracy theory, around which the psychic programme was geared.
There's inconsistency within the programme itself over how many rounds were fired. The mother claims three shots, the "ballistics expert" says three cartridge cases were found, and yet all three psychics say two shots were fired. It's then claimed that five rounds were fired by the rifle recovered by investigators. So which is it? Five shots fired, two hit? Three fired, two hit? Or two fired, both hit? This is symptomatic of the way the psychics appear to hot-read. They take their lead directly from the mother's beliefs and this so-called expert's pronuncements. As these are already inconsistent, the result is confused.
The "ballistics expert" shown on the programme is a Frank Swann. I must admit that the gold charm bracelet full of guns on his wrist did not inspire my confidence. Anyway, Google shows that this guy is an "independent legal-forensic consultant (http://www.legalforensics.co.uk/)". He was brought in by the mother, see this newspaper report (http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/crime/article98852.ece). He's also mentioned in official reports, e.g.
Summary (http://www.deepcutreview.org.uk/Text/1111359259897-0735/uploadedFiles/1144320109977-8740.pdf) by report author Nicholas Blake QC:
At one point in the public concerns surrounding these deaths it was thought that independent scientific expertise might point away from a conclusion of self inflicted death for one or more of the deaths. In the light of the expert evidence seen by the Review and noted in the Report, I am satisfied that this is not the case. Although Mr Frank Swann declined to make his opinions available to the Review for reasons set out in the exchange of correspondence reproduced in the Appendix 3, I am satisfied that scientific analysis demonstrates to varying degrees that the fatal shots were fired at very close range and in a manner consistent with and suggestive of self inflicted harm. Science alone cannot go beyond this but in my opinion nothing more can be expected to be achieved in this area of evidence.
Looking at Appendix 3, (http://www.deepcutreview.org.uk/Text/1111359418445-6578/uploadedFiles/1143656299656-6299.pdf) we see that Nicholas Blake QC tried to get Swann to give evidence for the final report. Original letters are reproduced but:
The Review did not recieve [sic] a response to its letter to Mr Frank Swan [sic] dated 13th April 2005. Redactions made have been made by the Review.
Swann, it seems, refuses to co-operate on the grounds that only a Judicial Public Enquiry will suffice, and despite this not being on the cards, refuses the only chance for his "evidence" to actually count for something. Swann comes across as nothing more than an armchair conspiracy theorist in the programme, arguing exclusively from personal incredulity. He claims that the muzzle climb of the SA80 / L85 assault rifle used would make two self-inflicted gunshot wounds in the front of the head impossible, and that Gray could not have held the weapon the 7" away that Swann claims it must have been. He gives no reason why 7", presumably he's thinking of the severity of powder burns. But, as the psychics delight in telling us, the body and cap were both destroyed, and independent investigators (naturally) weren't allowed access, so I'm unsure as to how he arrived at his conclusions. I personally see no problem with the scenario of Gray bracing the bullpup (grip in front of magazine) assault rifle on the ground or against an object, holding the barrel in one hand and pressing the trigger with a finger or thumb on the other. Swann's only meaningful critique of this is that the geometry of the situation bearing in mind the 7" distance, would have demanded that flash-hider be gripped in one hand, resulting in obvious burns to the hand. He fails to tell us whether such burns were in fact absent from the corpse, or account for this otherwise, e.g. whether gloves might have been worn.
He also claims that the patrol sent to investigate the "three shots" heard that night, could not possibly have missed Gray's body as later found, as it would have been 9" away from the wire between the guard house and the area they set out to. The mother also claims that soldiers on that detail have come to her and sworn that the body was not there at that time. Both claim that the body was moved.
His incredulity over the issue of getting two rounds into the head on full-automatic fire makes little sense. He states that the weapon would have climbed up and to the right. A weapon will do so when held right-handed in a standing or crouched position, because it exerts force on that shoulder and pushes back and twists the body slightly to the right as it starts to lift the muzzle. A weapon held facing the shooter, against an immovable bracing object, would not do either of these things. Muzzle climb is certainly an issue when taking aimed automatic fire at a distant target, but not when a weapon is effectively braced, and putting shots into a 6" broad, 3" high (approx) target at point-blank range. Especially not in a bullpup (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullpup) arrangement like the L85, in which one would expect the recoil to be directed straight backward - there is not a point about which the weapon is able to pivot, as was the case with older weapons with less straight layouts.
He also says no actual bullets were recovered, which to me (if true) seems quite possible given the long distance they would have travelled after exiting Gray's head.
He claims that he and his team fired 800 rounds with SA80 rifles and were unable to reproduce the results shown. No hints at methodology are given, nor where he might get his hands on Section 2, military-grade automatic weapons. He states that the only way the official scenario could have occurred was if the body was either "restrained" or "lying down". I simply don't believe his speculation.
His own offered scenario is (to say the least) no easier to swallow for me than the "official story". The actor playing the soldier and holding a broom or similar, walks obliviously up to a tree, behind which is hiding another actor playing the supposed murdering fellow soldier. The latter jumps out, shouts "surprise!" (not really) and puts the muzzle of his rifle to Gray's forehead, making the fatal shots. This seems to me to be speculative at best. The guy was on guard duty, yet fails to notice an armed man hiding behind a tree. The murderer, rather than jumping him with a blunt and therefore silent weapon, decides not to put any distance between him and his target, but to walk right up to him and fire either multiple shots or a short burst, alerting everyone on the base. I think not, and there is no evidence that I can find online to support this theory.
He claims that armoury logs that would have shown what weapon was issued to what soldier, were destroyed. He goes on to say that initially, he tried to avoid thoughts of conspiracy, but that the "scientific forensics" clearly indicate to him that it was murder, not suicide. Needless to say, the mother and all three "psychics" in the TV show agree with this and adjust their "readings" accordingly.
There is an interesting discussion between serving and ex-soldiers and Swann himself on the unofficial army forumhere (http://www.arrse.co.uk/cpgn2/Forums/viewtopic/t=46458/postdays=0/postorder=asc/start=15.html). His credentials and methods are called into very much into question, as is his taste in gold jewellery. Whilst I can't condone ad hominem attacks, and it having nothing to do with the CT at hand, this being the JREF I feel compelled to point out his woo "reasons" for wearing it:
I have Poly Rheumatoid Arthritis, as well as other disabling diseases, and yes, gold bracelets, believe it or not, keep my wrists, and gold rings on my fingers, supple, and appear to prevent acute inflammation. I do not claim it works for everyone, but it works for me; and yes, I do like gold jewellery.
From research (well, investigoogling) thus far, the conspiracy theories seem to extend far beyond Gray's family, much of it touched on in the above linked ARRSE thread. Has anyone else here looked in to this particular CT?
There's inconsistency within the programme itself over how many rounds were fired. The mother claims three shots, the "ballistics expert" says three cartridge cases were found, and yet all three psychics say two shots were fired. It's then claimed that five rounds were fired by the rifle recovered by investigators. So which is it? Five shots fired, two hit? Three fired, two hit? Or two fired, both hit? This is symptomatic of the way the psychics appear to hot-read. They take their lead directly from the mother's beliefs and this so-called expert's pronuncements. As these are already inconsistent, the result is confused.
The "ballistics expert" shown on the programme is a Frank Swann. I must admit that the gold charm bracelet full of guns on his wrist did not inspire my confidence. Anyway, Google shows that this guy is an "independent legal-forensic consultant (http://www.legalforensics.co.uk/)". He was brought in by the mother, see this newspaper report (http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/crime/article98852.ece). He's also mentioned in official reports, e.g.
Summary (http://www.deepcutreview.org.uk/Text/1111359259897-0735/uploadedFiles/1144320109977-8740.pdf) by report author Nicholas Blake QC:
At one point in the public concerns surrounding these deaths it was thought that independent scientific expertise might point away from a conclusion of self inflicted death for one or more of the deaths. In the light of the expert evidence seen by the Review and noted in the Report, I am satisfied that this is not the case. Although Mr Frank Swann declined to make his opinions available to the Review for reasons set out in the exchange of correspondence reproduced in the Appendix 3, I am satisfied that scientific analysis demonstrates to varying degrees that the fatal shots were fired at very close range and in a manner consistent with and suggestive of self inflicted harm. Science alone cannot go beyond this but in my opinion nothing more can be expected to be achieved in this area of evidence.
Looking at Appendix 3, (http://www.deepcutreview.org.uk/Text/1111359418445-6578/uploadedFiles/1143656299656-6299.pdf) we see that Nicholas Blake QC tried to get Swann to give evidence for the final report. Original letters are reproduced but:
The Review did not recieve [sic] a response to its letter to Mr Frank Swan [sic] dated 13th April 2005. Redactions made have been made by the Review.
Swann, it seems, refuses to co-operate on the grounds that only a Judicial Public Enquiry will suffice, and despite this not being on the cards, refuses the only chance for his "evidence" to actually count for something. Swann comes across as nothing more than an armchair conspiracy theorist in the programme, arguing exclusively from personal incredulity. He claims that the muzzle climb of the SA80 / L85 assault rifle used would make two self-inflicted gunshot wounds in the front of the head impossible, and that Gray could not have held the weapon the 7" away that Swann claims it must have been. He gives no reason why 7", presumably he's thinking of the severity of powder burns. But, as the psychics delight in telling us, the body and cap were both destroyed, and independent investigators (naturally) weren't allowed access, so I'm unsure as to how he arrived at his conclusions. I personally see no problem with the scenario of Gray bracing the bullpup (grip in front of magazine) assault rifle on the ground or against an object, holding the barrel in one hand and pressing the trigger with a finger or thumb on the other. Swann's only meaningful critique of this is that the geometry of the situation bearing in mind the 7" distance, would have demanded that flash-hider be gripped in one hand, resulting in obvious burns to the hand. He fails to tell us whether such burns were in fact absent from the corpse, or account for this otherwise, e.g. whether gloves might have been worn.
He also claims that the patrol sent to investigate the "three shots" heard that night, could not possibly have missed Gray's body as later found, as it would have been 9" away from the wire between the guard house and the area they set out to. The mother also claims that soldiers on that detail have come to her and sworn that the body was not there at that time. Both claim that the body was moved.
His incredulity over the issue of getting two rounds into the head on full-automatic fire makes little sense. He states that the weapon would have climbed up and to the right. A weapon will do so when held right-handed in a standing or crouched position, because it exerts force on that shoulder and pushes back and twists the body slightly to the right as it starts to lift the muzzle. A weapon held facing the shooter, against an immovable bracing object, would not do either of these things. Muzzle climb is certainly an issue when taking aimed automatic fire at a distant target, but not when a weapon is effectively braced, and putting shots into a 6" broad, 3" high (approx) target at point-blank range. Especially not in a bullpup (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullpup) arrangement like the L85, in which one would expect the recoil to be directed straight backward - there is not a point about which the weapon is able to pivot, as was the case with older weapons with less straight layouts.
He also says no actual bullets were recovered, which to me (if true) seems quite possible given the long distance they would have travelled after exiting Gray's head.
He claims that he and his team fired 800 rounds with SA80 rifles and were unable to reproduce the results shown. No hints at methodology are given, nor where he might get his hands on Section 2, military-grade automatic weapons. He states that the only way the official scenario could have occurred was if the body was either "restrained" or "lying down". I simply don't believe his speculation.
His own offered scenario is (to say the least) no easier to swallow for me than the "official story". The actor playing the soldier and holding a broom or similar, walks obliviously up to a tree, behind which is hiding another actor playing the supposed murdering fellow soldier. The latter jumps out, shouts "surprise!" (not really) and puts the muzzle of his rifle to Gray's forehead, making the fatal shots. This seems to me to be speculative at best. The guy was on guard duty, yet fails to notice an armed man hiding behind a tree. The murderer, rather than jumping him with a blunt and therefore silent weapon, decides not to put any distance between him and his target, but to walk right up to him and fire either multiple shots or a short burst, alerting everyone on the base. I think not, and there is no evidence that I can find online to support this theory.
He claims that armoury logs that would have shown what weapon was issued to what soldier, were destroyed. He goes on to say that initially, he tried to avoid thoughts of conspiracy, but that the "scientific forensics" clearly indicate to him that it was murder, not suicide. Needless to say, the mother and all three "psychics" in the TV show agree with this and adjust their "readings" accordingly.
There is an interesting discussion between serving and ex-soldiers and Swann himself on the unofficial army forumhere (http://www.arrse.co.uk/cpgn2/Forums/viewtopic/t=46458/postdays=0/postorder=asc/start=15.html). His credentials and methods are called into very much into question, as is his taste in gold jewellery. Whilst I can't condone ad hominem attacks, and it having nothing to do with the CT at hand, this being the JREF I feel compelled to point out his woo "reasons" for wearing it:
I have Poly Rheumatoid Arthritis, as well as other disabling diseases, and yes, gold bracelets, believe it or not, keep my wrists, and gold rings on my fingers, supple, and appear to prevent acute inflammation. I do not claim it works for everyone, but it works for me; and yes, I do like gold jewellery.
From research (well, investigoogling) thus far, the conspiracy theories seem to extend far beyond Gray's family, much of it touched on in the above linked ARRSE thread. Has anyone else here looked in to this particular CT?