How to test a conspiracy theory

[Byzantine Magpie]

I originally posted this to the thread I started to promote the Moon Hoax talk I did a couple of weeks ago. But I thought the tests would be more use on the Conspiracy Theories section of the board.

Anyway, in the talk, I presented ten tests which people can apply to conspiracy theories.

= = = =

Questions to test conspiracy theories

Test 1: Is the argument factually correct?

It’s remarkable how many conspiracy theories are based on arguments which are simply factually incorrect. If you’re presented with a conspiracy theory argument, the first thing to do is to check the surrounding facts. Many incorrect arguments are repeated in ignorance. But it’s also been my unhappy experience that there are some purveyors of conspiracy theories who knowingly repeat arguments they know are incorrect.

Test 2: Is the argument relevant to the theory?

A second common problem with conspiracy theories is that they cloud the issue by attaching true, but irrelevant, arguments. Just because an argument is true doesn’t mean it’s relevant to the theory you’re testing. This is a form of guilt by association, and gives the impression that the theory is being padded.

Test 3: If the argument is true, what implications does it have in other areas?

An argument on its own may appear to be plausible. But if we apply the argument to related fields or subjects, does it continue to make sense? Or would it require the world to be very different from how we see it?

Test 4: Is the argument consistent with other arguments used to support the theory?

There’s a temptation to judge a theory simply by the number of supporting arguments, regardless of how they interact with each other. But amongst all these arguments, there’s the danger that two or more of them contradict each other. This immediately means that at least one of the arguments is wrong, but in the context of conspiracy theories, it’s perhaps worthwhile doubting both.

Test 5: What do relevant experts say about a particular argument?

Conspiracy theorists often tout their apparent expertise with a body of knowledge in order to bolster their arguments. But, perversely, they also often decry other experts in the field. This is often because the expert consensus in that field is contrary to the argument presented. Similarly, they often quote experts speaking inaccurately outside their field of expertise.

Test 6: Is there actually an argument in the argument, or is it just an opinion?

An argument which merely expresses an opinion, but which doesn’t have any supporting evidence, adds nothing to the theory, and should be ignored.

Test 7: Does the argument offer any supporting evidence?

Some arguments are presented with weasel words such as “could have” or “maybe”. Without any supporting evidence, these aren’t arguments – they’re just speculation. They too should be ignored.

Test 8: Is the explanation provided by an argument the only possible explanation for the evidence?

There are cases when an argument presents two alternative explanations for an event. One is the conspiracy explanation, while the other is said to be the official explanation. When the official explanation is debunked, the conspiracy explanation appears to be correct by default. Problems arise, though, when the apparently official explanation turns out to be a straw-man misrepresentation of the official explanation.

Test 9: How does the argument deal with positive arguments which contradict it?

Theories aren’t built out of opposition to other theories. Instead, they’re created to better explain the evidence than previous theories. Therefore, any conspiracy theory has to address evidence which contradicts it. Ignoring the evidence isn’t acceptable, and should be treated as a major weakness of the theory.

Test 10: Would an experiment of your own help shed light on an argument?

Some conspiracy arguments rely on you accepting them without question, perhaps by an appeal to common sense. Sadly, common sense can lead us astray. This is where simple experiments, or even just careful observation of the world around us, can provide useful insights into the accuracy of an argument.

Conclusion: Is the conspiracy theory a coherent theory?

A problem with many conspiracy theories is that they exist only as a challenge to the official version of events. Yet if the conspiracy theory is true, a series of events must have occurred to bring the conspiracy to fruition. However, many conspiracy theorists aren’t willing to spell out exactly how they think the conspiracy was achieved. This appears to be a tacit acceptance that their arguments don’t add up to a coherent theory. What they often have, instead, is an ad hoc collection of arguments which, if put together, create an implausible, self-contradictory and ad hoc narrative.

[CHF]

I'd add another point:

Does the conspiracy even make sense to the person presenting it?

You wouldn't believe how many twoofers are at a loss to explain their own theories.

That's why some claim to want a new investigation: to figure out what all their "evidence" actually adds up to, cuz they haven't a clue,

[uk_dave]

Look, when you have a belief in some supranatural group or entity controlling what you perceive to be the world, rational analysis of your conspiracy theory doesn't matter a jot.

If you believe in a NWO/Illuminati/Reptoid/Zionist plot to rule the world and decimate the population in order to conserve resources for yourself and your offspring, then ANYTHING is possible :D

[hellaeon]

Look, when you have a belief in some supranatural group or entity controlling what you perceive to be the world, rational analysis of your conspiracy theory doesn't matter a jot.

If you believe in a NWO/Illuminati/Reptoid/Zionist plot to rule the world and decimate the population in order to conserve resources for yourself and your offspring, then ANYTHING is possible :D

I have witnessed this first hand with old friends telling me I needed to 'unlearn the reality that I had been shown' which aparently was wrong.

[Byzantine Magpie]

Look, when you have a belief in some supranatural group or entity controlling what you perceive to be the world, rational analysis of your conspiracy theory doesn't matter a jot.

If you believe in a NWO/Illuminati/Reptoid/Zionist plot to rule the world and decimate the population in order to conserve resources for yourself and your offspring, then ANYTHING is possible :D

Maybe, but not everyone who hears a conspiracy theory is necessarily convinced it's true. The problem, though, is that people don't have the means to find the faults in the theory, and may also be overwhelmed by specious technical arguments used by the conspiracy theorists.

What I wanted to show in my talk was that you don't necessarily need to be a technical expert in order to dissect a conspiracy theory. Instead, these questions, plus some reasonable research, will often allow you to determine the reliability of a particular conspiracy theory.

[pagan]

Interesting!

The obvious conspiracy theory to test is, of course, the Dubya adm's silly story. The one about the 19 Muslim cokeheads directed by a kidney patient from a cave in Afgahnistan.

This is exactly what we 911 truthers have been doing for years now. While you gullible guys choose not to. Instead you attack us for doing our duties as citizens.

[gumboot]

The one about the 19 Muslim cokeheads directed by a kidney patient from a cave in Afgahnistan.


I don't think I've ever seen a simple sentence with so many errors in it...

-Gumboot

[pagan]

I don't think I've ever seen a simple sentence with so many errors in it...

-Gumboot

OK, Gumbo.

Note taken. Willing to test the official conspiracy theory?

[gumboot]

OK, Gumbo.

Note taken. Willing to test the official conspiracy theory?



If you mean the accepted version of events, gladly.

-Gumboot

[Travis]

*plays Taps as Pagan walks the Green Mile*

[twinstead]

Pagan do you ever NOT use emotional rhetoric instead of rational discussion in response to objections to your theories?

[Travis]

Interesting!

The obvious conspiracy theory to test is, of course, the Dubya adm's silly story.

It was not "Dubya's adm's" story nor was it "silly."

The one about the 19 Muslim cokeheads...

You got something against cokeheads? They are just as capable of conducting a suicide attack as anyone. In fact some evidence indicates they are the ideal individuals to do such a thing.

directed by a kidney patient from a cave in Afgahnistan.

There is no evidence Bin Laden was in a cave on 9/11 nor anytime prior to the start of Operation Enduring Freedom.

[gumboot]

It was not "Dubya's adm's" story nor was it "silly."



You got something against cokeheads? They are just as capable of conducting a suicide attack as anyone. In fact some evidence indicates they are the ideal individuals to do such a thing.

There is no evidence Bin Laden was in a cave on 9/11 nor anytime prior to the start of Operation Enduring Freedom.



Not to mention there's nothing to indicate any of the 9/11 hijackers were "cokeheads" and Osama Bin Laden himself has outright denied he has ever needed medical treatment for his kidneys.

Oh, and Pagan spelled "Afghanistan" wrong...:p

-Gumboot

[uk_dave]

Yeah but to be fair to Pagan, he did get the number right.

And the religion.

2 out of 5

Must do better.

[Travis]

Not to mention there's nothing to indicate any of the 9/11 hijackers were "cokeheads" and Osama Bin Laden himself has outright denied he has ever needed medical treatment for his kidneys.

Illustrating that it was inconsequential whether or not they were "cokeheads" was my goal. But you are right the evidence for it is not really there. As for Bin Laden. . . well at least he didn't claim he was a CIA operative.

Oh, and Pagan spelled "Afghanistan" wrong...:p

-Gumboot

As a sufferer of dyslexia I usually won't harp on other peoples spelling foibles.

[Disbelief]

OK, Gumbo.

Note taken. Willing to test the official conspiracy theory?

Can anyone even test your theory or do you not have one like typical truthers?

[The Silver Shadow]

Interesting!

The obvious conspiracy theory to test is, of course, the Dubya adm's silly story. The one about the 19 Muslim cokeheads directed by a kidney patient from a cave in Afgahnistan.

This is exactly what we 911 truthers have been doing for years now. While you gullible guys choose not to. Instead you attack us for doing our duties as citizens.
These '19 Muslim cokeheads' had university and post graduate education, something that the great majority of 9/11 truthers lack.

[Rika]

Interesting!

The obvious conspiracy theory to test is, of course, the Dubya adm's silly story. The one about the 19 Muslim cokeheads directed by a kidney patient from a cave in Afgahnistan.

This is exactly what we 911 truthers have been doing for years now. While you gullible guys choose not to. Instead you attack us for doing our duties as citizens.

Uhm.. They a) weren't on drugs, and have postgraduate educations
b) Osama bin Laden is most likely in Pakistan, and is not a kidney patient.

C) Your testing the facts keeps going. Somehow, you've not come up with a coherent alternative or a fact to come up with your side that's applied wrong, wrong, or understood incorrectly..

D) So, I'll see you in front of Congress protesting various manifest injustices? Sending your evidence to the officals? Having an investigation? :boxedin:

[pagan]

It was not "Dubya's adm's" story nor was it "silly."



You got something against cokeheads? They are just as capable of conducting a suicide attack as anyone. In fact some evidence indicates they are the ideal individuals to do such a thing.



There is no evidence Bin Laden was in a cave on 9/11 nor anytime prior to the start of Operation Enduring Freedom.


You guys don't want to remember the Dubya adm's propaganda from almost day 1 after 911?

The reason why I am using the phrase: "The one about the 19 Muslim cokeheads directed by a kidney patient from a cave in Afgahnistan" is because.

The hijackers were described as very religious fanatical Islamists. It turned out they were not. They were partying a lot. Getting drunk, using coke and liked the company of lapdancers.
I remember that one Gov't report stated that they went to Las Vegas many times, but they couldn't figure out why?:eye-poppi

It was also said that Osama was hiding in very high-tec caves in Afghanistan. They never found any of these caves after invading Afgh. They sure looked for them. See the BBC docu: The power of nightmares.

[parky76]

Pagan- Are you trying to say that you believe an 1 hour documentary on BBC over more then a decade of research by many international researchers and experts on the subject matter? When did Youtube and Google video trump hard research and investigation? Your standards of proof are very very strange.

[defaultdotxbe]

The hijackers were described as very religious fanatical Islamists. It turned out they were not. They were partying a lot. Getting drunk, using coke and liked the company of lapdancers.
martyrdom absolves all sins, so they decided to live it up, i fail to see why this is surprising to anyone

wouldnt you do everything you ever wanted to if you knew you could get away with it?

[Redtail]

You guys don't want to remember the Dubya adm's propaganda from almost day 1 after 911?

The reason why I am using the phrase: "The one about the 19 Muslim cokeheads directed by a kidney patient from a cave in Afgahnistan" is because.

The hijackers were described as very religious fanatical Islamists. It turned out they were not. They were partying a lot. Getting drunk, using coke and liked the company of lapdancers.
I remember that one Gov't report stated that they went to Las Vegas many times, but they couldn't figure out why?:eye-poppi

It was also said that Osama was hiding in very high-tec caves in Afghanistan. They never found any of these caves after invading Afgh. They sure looked for them. See the BBC docu: The power of nightmares.


The truth movement claims to have proof that the USG is either lying or are directly responsible for the 9/11 attacks and they are dedcated to bringing the truth out yet the most 99.9% of them will do is argue with debunkers on website instead of going to DC and demanding answers. Why?:eye-poppi

[Byzantine Magpie]

G’day Pagan

I’m perfectly happy for the official theory to be tested using the questions I provided.

But I’d also expect you to be willing to test your theory using the questions.

[pagan]

G’day Pagan

I’m perfectly happy for the official theory to be tested using the questions I provided.

But I’d also expect you to be willing to test your theory using the questions.


G'day to you too Magpie.

I would be happy to oblige. But, the problem here is that we don't have a theory. You have. And it is a conspiracy theory. You have bought and are the true believers of Dubya's silly propaganda. We are the non-believers or the sceptics.

What we have is well grounded suspicions that the official 911 story is a fraud. In order to develop a theory on what actually happened that day. We need new truly independent investigations. This is our goal.:)

[PhantomWolf]

pagan, you're failing step one

Test 1: Is the argument factually correct?

[beachnut]

G'day to you too Magpie.

I would be happy to oblige. But, the problem here is that we don't have a theory. You have. And it is a conspiracy theory. You have bought and are the true believers of Dubya's silly propaganda. We are the non-believers or the sceptics.

What we have is well grounded suspicions that the official 911 story is a fraud. In order to develop a theory on what actually happened that day. We need new truly independent investigations. This is our goal.:)
Real experts do not need an official story to put together 9/11. I have no idea what the President's official story is and I see the entire 9/11 truth movement is unable to come up with any real story to counter what some 19 terrorist did with a surprise even the truther can not grasp. Why are truthers unable to see the simple steps to make 9/11 happen.
Just 2 simple tasks to carry out 9/11, and not one truther can grasp it, why?
1. Kill pilots
2 . Fly planes into buildings.

Then the truth movement does everything it can to mess up physics, math, material science, engineering, and just plan clear thinking to take 5 years and mess up every single thing about 9/11. As if they planned on telling lies instead of using logic. Why?

It was not surprising once ordinary people knew the rules they stopped the terrorists and the terrorist only were 75 percent effective. If they had announced the rules they may have scored ZERO, the same number for the amount of facts and understanding the truthers have of 9/11.

The 9/11 conspiracy is 19 terrorists. If you do not have it yet, more time is not going to help the truth movement manufacture better lies. The movement of 9/11 truth has no facts to use.

When and if you find some facts to support the lies of the 9/11 truth movement, feel free to post them right here. Got facts?

It is funny the truth movement, as in your case, has not idea what happen on 9/11. Lack of knowledge and the ability to think logically with evidence and facts has turned the truth movement in to a sad collection of fact less "experts" and followers with no knowledge of science, engineering, math, or physics. The entire movement called 9/11 truth has no facts or evidence to support their implied ideas, and now it seems they have no story at all for some of the truthers.

The inability of the turth movement to use some framework to submit their ideas and test them, make the truth movement just statements of lies.

You have no theory, you have no facts. Just perfect, you even missed the many if not hundreds of independent studies. Where have you been for five years and how did you miss all of the evidence, reports, and studies on 9/11 done by real experts? With all those experts in the truth movement why are they unable to find facts and do an new study? Why does LC not conduct a study and stop telling lies?

[Byzantine Magpie]

G'day to you too Magpie.

I would be happy to oblige. But, the problem here is that we don't have a theory. You have. And it is a conspiracy theory. You have bought and are the true believers of Dubya's silly propaganda. We are the non-believers or the sceptics.

What we have is well grounded suspicions that the official 911 story is a fraud. In order to develop a theory on what actually happened that day. We need new truly independent investigations. This is our goal.:)

I'm surprised. Five years have passed since the September 11 attacks, and you still don't have a theory for what happened on the day?

Why do you need an official investigation to work this out? Why can't you put together the pieces of evidence you have to make a coherent theory of your own?

[gumboot]

I'm surprised. Five years have passed since the September 11 attacks, and you still don't have a theory for what happened on the day?

Why do you need an official investigation to work this out? Why can't you put together the pieces of evidence you have to make a coherent theory of your own?



Indeed, that's how most of us here did it. Frankly I wouldn't be at all surprised if I learned that I actually knew more about the 9/11 attacks than Pagan's much mentioned "Dubya".

-Gumboot

[Byzantine Magpie]

The video of my talk is now on YouTube, in 9 parts, thanks to the guy who taped it all:

1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8Vbp894PFU

2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fb1oe-Ik9aM

3: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBjtYbNYqgA

4: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wqvNKX1fDg

5: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y1FReYoQJcw

6: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_F_oXAHMJtw

7: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIkkF2vQi-E

8: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vl-SXz6VpmI

9: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zz8T2hESDmc

Enjoy.

[Vincent Vega]

The hijackers were described as very religious fanatical Islamists. It turned out they were not. They were partying a lot. Getting drunk, using coke and liked the company of lapdancers.
I remember that one Gov't report stated that they went to Las Vegas many times, but they couldn't figure out why?:eye-poppi

The validity of these claims of partying has never been verified, regardless one would not necessarily preclude the other. No one has any idea what each individual's beliefs are. Just because they martyred themselves it is irresponsible to assume they all were devout Muslims. You cannot rule out social or psychological mental illness. You can’t rule out that some may have taken advantage their pending martyrdom that would cleanse their souls of all sin. You also can't rule out that not all 19 knew that they were on a suicide mission. All were university trained with western tendencies, and commitment to murdering Americans. That’s why they were picked. Anything else is pure speculation.


It was also said that Osama was hiding in very high-tec caves in Afghanistan. They never found any of these caves after invading Afgh. They sure looked for them. See the BBC docu: The power of nightmares.


He wasn't in hiding until after 9-11. There was an extensive training camp network in Afghanistan. Why live in a cave when buildings hide you from satellites just as well?

Any more simplistic assumptions?