Stats on belief in astrology

[FireGarden]

On the link to the Dawkins TV program story (http://entertainment.timesonline.co.uk/tol/arts_and_entertainment/books/article2198063.ece) it makes this claim:

Dawkins is horrified that 25% of the British public has some belief in astrology – more than in any one established religion – and that more newspaper column inches are devoted to horoscopes than to science.

I find it hard to believe both those stats. I would meet more people who believe in astrology if the first were true.

Google turns up this:
http://www.astrology.co.uk/AstroStats.htm

But the link's claims are somewhat undermined by a claim that those born around the same time as OBL have self-destructive tendencies, etc.

Any help?


ETA: It could be even worse than 25%

Google's second link:
http://www.astrology.com/presskit/statistics.html

When working out how many people believe in astrology, a great deal depends on how the question is put. In the 1996 Gallup Poll, 25% said that they believe that the position of the stars and planets affect people's lives. However, research conducted amongst a sample of students in England by Sue Blackmore and Marianne Seebold found that 100% know their star sign, 70% read their horoscopes regularly and 85% agree that the description of their birth sign describes their personality (Blackmore, Susan and Seebold, Marianne, 'The Effect of Horoscopes on Women's Relationships', Correlation, Vol. 19 no 2, Winter 2000-1, pp. 14-23).

A gallup poll, 1996.
I'm speechless.

[clerihew80]

I find it hard to believe both those stats. I would meet more people who believe in astrology if the first were true.

You must not meet the right breed of people. I work in a bar on the weekends. All of the female bartenders, and many of the customers, are avid followers of astrology. They're constantly discussing their horoscopes and asking others what their sign is. Good thing they're hot, otherwise they'd be completely insufferable.

[andyandy]

both stats sound plausible - though i'd be interested in what they deemed to be "science" with regards to newspaper inches...

if they are saying that 25% of the UK population believe in horoscopes, they may as well be saying 50% of UK women believe in them ;)

[Beady]

"Sue Blackmore and Marianne Seebold found that 100% know their star sign..."

I attach no importance at all to this particular item, even if true (and I don't doubt that it is). In this society, it's impossible to not know your sign. Hell, I even know my Oriental sign (Tiger). I'd be willing to bet that Dawkins knows at least his Western astology sign.

[JoeTheJuggler]

I find it hard to believe both those stats. I would meet more people who believe in astrology if the first were true.

I would've guessed a lot higher percentage based on the people I meet who believe in that rubbish. So I guess the people you and I meet would average to 25% astrology believers.

[Big Les]

Most women and some men I know/have known seemed to think there was something in what star sign you were. Even if many would have denied "believing in astrology" if asked. I think some of the ideas have permeated the public consciousness to the point where many don't much question it. Kinda like the moon lunacy thing, dowsing, or people who think homeopathy = naturopathy - they haven't looked into it, lots of people (and celebs) believe in it, so they do too (to some extent). All wild speculation on my part, but if the criteria for the survey were fairly wide, you might get quite a high percentage, but a much lower proportion will be card-carrying hippy fruitcakes.

[FireGarden]

"Sue Blackmore and Marianne Seebold found that 100% know their star sign..."

I attach no importance at all to this particular item, even if true (and I don't doubt that it is). In this society, it's impossible to not know your sign.

But "85% agree that the description of their birth sign describes their personality".

That's certainly believing in one aspect of astrology.

[Big Les]

Exactly. Ask them "do you believe in astrology" and they may well deny it. They may not even know what it is. Deliberately ask about star signs, and you get your 85% no bother. That's what I was trying to say.

[Beady]

Exactly. Ask them "do you believe in astrology" and they may well deny it. They may not even know what it is. Deliberately ask about star signs, and you get your 85% no bother. That's what I was trying to say.

I still think it's skewed. Rather than ask them how well their star sign describes them, ask them if they know what their star sign supposedly says about them. I'll bet a vast majority of your 85% don't.

[fortuneteller]

It is worse than 25%

even world leaders subscribe to ritual before making key decisions

that kind of behavior has been going on since man first stepped
foot on this planet

[Merko]

But "85% agree that the description of their birth sign describes their personality".

That's certainly believing in one aspect of astrology.

I disagree. Of course, I'm curious what is supposed to be the description of my birth sign (or any other birth sign). But assuming that the pollsters offer some sort of 'authoritative' description, I would agree that the description of my birth sign describes my personality. I would also agree that the description of any other birth sign also describes my personality. Of course, if I had to read all of these descriptions, I might actually find that some of them were totally off. But generally, I'd expect them all to match. That's what they are crafted to do, after all. And I have great faith in astrologers' ability to write up that kind of stuff.

[Merko]

I just googled 'birth sign personalities' and picked the first response:
http://www.paranormality.com/zodiac.shtml

I went through the statements for all signs and there was only one which I don't think describes my personality:
"However, they must learn to speak with candor instead of simply repeating what others want to hear."
That's just plain opposite of me. Incidentally, that one's offered for 'my' sign. Most other statements, for all signs, I feel are dead on.

But then of course, that's because they are all the kind of flattering descriptions of abilities we all want to have. Even the weaknesses are phrased in such a positive way: "X'ers have to learn to...", and then you go: "Exactly! I certainly have learned that!"

[FireGarden]

I disagree. Of course, I'm curious what is supposed to be the description of my birth sign (or any other birth sign). But assuming that the pollsters offer some sort of 'authoritative' description, I would agree that the description of my birth sign describes my personality. I would also agree that the description of any other birth sign also describes my personality.

I see what you mean.
I had assumed they just asked a straightforward question about star-signs. "Do you believe your character is accurately predicted by your star-sign?" -- without a specific example.

Your way sounds more likely.

[andyandy]

Most women and some men I know/have known seemed to think there was something in what star sign you were. Even if many would have denied "believing in astrology" if asked. I think some of the ideas have permeated the public consciousness to the point where many don't much question it. Kinda like the moon lunacy thing, dowsing, or people who think homeopathy = naturopathy - they haven't looked into it, lots of people (and celebs) believe in it, so they do too (to some extent). All wild speculation on my part, but if the criteria for the survey were fairly wide, you might get quite a high percentage, but a much lower proportion will be card-carrying hippy fruitcakes.

true - i think that it's a quite nebulous "belief" - you could extend it further and find that a great deal of the population believe in "luck" through a survey in which you sought to determine if people subscribed to any superstition attached to luck in some sense, whether not walking under a ladder, having a lucky teddy for exams, wearing something borrowed for their wedding, etc etc. I would expect the figures to be far higher than 25%...
but do people really "believe in luck"? Generally its almost as an acknowledged form of irrationality, a Pascal's wager on a much more mundane scale - a pretty weak just in case .

[Big Les]

I still think it's skewed. Rather than ask them how well their star sign describes them, ask them if they know what their star sign supposedly says about them. I'll bet a vast majority of your 85% don't.

Knowledge is not a prerequisite for belief (quite the opposite). Someone that takes a tarot reading and happens to know the deck and system being used is no more a believer than someone who just "thinks there's something in it".

true - i think that it's a quite nebulous "belief" - you could extend it further and find that a great deal of the population believe in "luck" through a survey in which you sought to determine if people subscribed to any superstition attached to luck in some sense, whether not walking under a ladder, having a lucky teddy for exams, wearing something borrowed for their wedding, etc etc. I would expect the figures to be far higher than 25%...

Agreed.

but do people really "believe in luck"? Generally its almost as an acknowledged form of irrationality, a Pascal's wager on a much more mundane scale - a pretty weak just in case .

I see what you're driving at - they may pay lip-service to it but if challenged or if important choices are affected by it, they are likely to admit their irrationality. That is indeed different to the "true-believer". But those not at the latter stage are perhaps the best audience for programmes like this - if they take them as a cautionary tale not to let their all-too-human predilection for irrational thoughts to become irrational behaviour (consequences to include being financially fleeced and/or emotionally damaged). You could argue, as I suspect old Dawks would, that if they let it influence their real-life decisions, then for all intents and purposes, they believe in it. I certainly try to recognise it in myself and avoid it, so I approve of and enjoy programmes that encourage something similar in others.

[Beady]

I had assumed they just asked a straightforward question about star-signs. "Do you believe your character is accurately predicted by your star-sign?" -- without a specific example.

Your way sounds more likely.

The Skeptic's Dictionary seems to have fallen out of use, lately, but you might want to take a look at this (http://skepdic.com/forer.html) entry. It's also known as the Barnum Effect.

[FireGarden]

Thanks, Beady.

btw,
Your link links to http://skepdic.com/rumpology.html

Rumpology. Sounds so made up.
But I think my dog believes in it....
:)

[Big Les]

You *must* see the Shirley Ghostman bit on rumpology. Can't find it on Youtube.

[Beady]

Thanks, Beady.

btw,
Your link links to http://skepdic.com/rumpology.html:)

I just tried it, and it links to the Forer Effect, which is what I intended. Anyhow, if you haven't, already, check out the Forer Effect.

ETA: Just to make sure: http://skepdic.com/forer.html

[FireGarden]

I just tried it, and it links to the Forer Effect, which is what I intended. Anyhow, if you haven't, already, check out the Forer Effect.

ETA: Just to make sure: http://skepdic.com/forer.html

I meant the page you linked to itself links to rumpology. Sorry for the confusion.

[FireGarden]

You *must* see the Shirley Ghostman bit on rumpology. Can't find it on Youtube.

Can't find a video, but here's a BBC site:
"High Spirits with Shirley Ghostman"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/comedy/shirleyghostman/paranormalists/

[YouBelieveWHAT?]

"Asstrologer" - I love that!

Actually, the thing I find the most difficult to understand is the horoscope in the newspaper.

Even if there is something in Astrology (of course there isn't :)), to believe a reading that has to match with a twelfth of the population seems ridiculous.

It has to be so vague as to be meaningless.

Oh - I see now..... :)

YBW

[kieran]

even world leaders subscribe to ritual before making key decisions
I heard on the radio today (BBC Radio 5) that, when India and Pakistan were established as modern states (independent from British rule), India was actually created the day after Pakistan as Indian astrologers deemed it to be more astrologically favourable ... I've looked it up and true enough, Pakistan was formed on 14th August 1947 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan) while India was formed at midnight on 15th August 1947 (http://www.indianchild.com/independence_of_india.htm).

If something as monumetal as the creation of a nation is governed by woo - then I despair ...

[FireGarden]

Even if there is something in Astrology (of course there isn't :)), to believe a reading that has to match with a twelfth of the population seems ridiculous.

Dawkins made the point in his program. He read the "horoscopes" of Germans, Chinese and British.

Inscrutable, stiff upper lip, etc.

It's partly an emotional argument, but it does highlight how under different circumstances such stereotyping is not PC. That, alone, wouldn't make stereotyping wrong. But how do daily horoscopes justify spliting people into just 12 groups? What's so different about star-sign compared to nationality?

[YouBelieveWHAT?]

I think you're right, FireGarden,

National "behaviour" has probably developed over the centuries, and become part of that nation's "culture".

So - if you're born as a Brit - as I was - you're kind of indoctrinated by that culture - total immersion therapy!

Of course, you can rebel against it in later years :)

I don't believe that you can do that in Astrology, though?

YBW

[FireGarden]

YBW,
I don't think that national stereotypes are all that accurate. There's a lot of variety in Britain. In comedy: Benny Hill and Monty Python are both British. In music: Iron Maiden and the Spice Girls are both British. etc.

And I'm a Brit, too, btw.

[Beady]

National "behaviour" has probably developed over the centuries, and become part of that nation's "culture".

When the British open fire, the Indians take cover.
When the Germans open fire, the French take cover.
When the Americans open fire, everybody takes cover.

Hell is where the policemen are German, the politicians French and the cooks British.

[YouBelieveWHAT?]

Well - for post 616 I need something profound.

After all, isn't this the alternate number of the beast?

Alas....

Beady - I heard that originally as a bit of WWII doggerel:

When the RAF flies over, the Germans dive for cover.
When the Luftwaffe flies over, the Allies dive for cover.
When the US Air Force (actually USAAC at the time) flies over.....

Actually, FireGarden, I guess I was using a too-broad brush there.

In my own case, as well as being an Atheist, I'm pretty much of a republican -though not as a supporter of a certain American political party. :)

I believe that this is unusual for a Brit, though I've not done any in-depth analysis, of course. However, Prince Charles does seem to be campaigning - inadvertently, I assume - for a Republic, so who am I to complain? :)

YBW

[Big Les]

Actually actually, it was USAAF at the time. ;)

[Beady]

Wiki:

The United States Army Air Corps (USAAC) was the predecessor of the United States Army Air Forces (USAAF) from 1926 to 1941, which in turn was the forerunner of today's United States Air Force (USAF). Although abolished as an organization in 1941, it existed as a branch subordinate to the USAAF from 1941 to 1947.


Emphasis added.

[YouBelieveWHAT?]

Thanks Beady,

You beat me to it :)

I must stop answering the phone on my desk. :)

YBW

[YouBelieveWHAT?]

Actually - so that I didn't derail the thread too much, I was referring to the "United States of America Astrology Corps".

Sorry for the confusion..... :)

YBW

[GimmePepsi]

I don't think that national stereotypes are all that accurate. There's a lot of variety in Britain. In comedy: Benny Hill and Monty Python are both British.


I always thought the formula was:
Men wearing women's clothing = British comedy
:duck:

[FireGarden]

I always thought the formula was:
Men wearing women's clothing = British comedy
:duck:

I'm sure you meant subset rather than equals. A large subset to be sure. But not equal.

"I'm a lumberjack and I'm okay.... I cut down trees, I wear high heels, suspendies and a bra"

Can't we pretend Palin was a Canadian for that scene? :Clutching at straws:

[phildonnia]

..."However, they must learn to speak with candor instead of simply repeating what others want to hear."...

In other words, they aren't truthful in Gallup Polls? I wonder if this was factored in to the poll results?