Forex Trading

[Charlie Monoxide]

Currently I'm "employment challenged", or on the positive note "between jobs". I've been looking into trading Forex (foreign exchange). I tried it a few years with a demo account and did badly. I've been reading up on it lately and I now have a better grasp at understanding the various charting technique (ie Bollinger bands, Fibonacci, candlesticks).

Does anyone here do Forex trading and willing to share experience and/or advice?

I've been thinking of developing a Java 2 model to help predict trends. That's still a "work-in-progress".

Charlie (shorting Enron) Monoxide

[drkitten]

Currently I'm "employment challenged", or on the positive note "between jobs". I've been looking into trading Forex (foreign exchange). I tried it a few years with a demo account and did badly. I've been reading up on it lately and I now have a better grasp at understanding the various charting technique (ie Bollinger bands, Fibonacci, candlesticks).

Does anyone here do Forex trading and willing to share experience and/or advice?


If you are employment-challenged, it sounds like this is about the last thing you want to do.

In particular, technical analysis ("various charting techniques") has been repeatedly shown to be no better than chance -- and you don't even have the underlying economic growth working in your favor in Forex trading. You'll be paying commissions to bet on coin flips.

[Charlie Monoxide]

If you are employment-challenged, it sounds like this is about the last thing you want to do.

In particular, technical analysis ("various charting techniques") has been repeatedly shown to be no better than chance -- and you don't even have the underlying economic growth working in your favor in Forex trading. You'll be paying commissions to bet on coin flips.I understand very well that technical analysis by its own doesn't work well with forex trading. The mantra is "the trend is your friend" and that always involves what the various governments are doing at the time with respects to their monetary policies.

I'm also aware that typically 90%+ of investors (day traders and forex investers) lose. Hopes spring eternal to be part of the 10% club.

Although I'm not working, I do have a skeckel or two in the piggy bank. I miss working though and feel the brain is calcifying from lack of challenges.

Charlie (beer taster and video poker tester in Reno) Monoxide

[Pyrts]

It's quite risky. I know several people who got into it and were quite disappointed with the results.

The best way to fail at a business is to go into something that niether you nor any relatives or acquaintances know nothing about. Instead, start with what you know -- a service (accounting, babysitting, tutoring, writing, etc) or something a friend/relative knows or even go into Ebaying things you collected and are interested in.

[Pyrts]

Although I'm not working, I do have a skeckel or two in the piggy bank. I miss working though and feel the brain is calcifying from lack of challenges.

You can play around as a microlender on www.prosper.com -- I have a small portfolio over there, and the returns may interest you (8-20%). It's less risky than penny stocks or forex... but about as risky as regular stocks.

It takes awhile to learn the ropes (not long, but awhile) and the wait for funds to transfer is nearly a full week (which actually slows down the chance that you will do something rash.) Do NOT (as some have done) borrow money to get into this, and do NOT tie up more than 5% of your available play money in it.

So far I've had luck, but I invest small amounts (under $100) and stick with fairly safe requests (AA or A credit ratings, homeowners, and verified accounts.)

[Charlie Monoxide]

Thanks Pyrts for the link. I'm not looking to sink a bunch of cash into a video-like game AKA day trading. This seems more up my alley.

I'm fascinated by the various ways you can earn money. In Reno here, video slots are truly ubiquitous. Whenever I hit the grocery store, I drop a $10 or $20 and see if I can "win" my grocery bill back. More often than not I do or more truthfully I'm probably only remembering the "hits" a la Sylvia Brown.

And you're absolutely right (if I may), that learning the "hard way" is both humiliating and not the best way to do things.

Charlie (plus I'm a (part) cheap Scot to boot) Monoxide

[roger]

Forex is wonderful for the professionals - basically hedging foreign investments. I.e. you buy some Canadian stock and want to hedge against currency swings so you go to forex and buy against your Canadian trade so you are immune to USD vs CAD swings. Or, if you are somebody like Soros you can make a billion or so in currency exchanges. Note that he then went ahead and lost a few billion in currency exchanges. If he can't do it, you probably can't, even with a nifty Java program.

[roger]

prosper.com. Ie yi yi. Read the forum. Everything goes swimmingly for the first few months. Read the accounts of people who have been at it for a year or more. It's generally a losing proposition. yes, I'm trading anecdotes for anecdotes, but it's all the data we have.

You are unemployed. You can't afford to lose your nut. If you want 5% on your money, go to HSBC and get an online savings account. If you can afford to lock up your money, you can get longer term CDs or bonds that will pay slightly better. Anything else is gambling at this point. If you have a job and free cash, gamble away. The ideas on this thread amount to taking your bank account, and putting it to ride on black on the roulette table.

[Charlie Monoxide]

prosper.com. Ie yi yi. Read the forum. Everything goes swimmingly for the first few months. Read the accounts of people who have been at it for a year or more. It's generally a losing proposition. yes, I'm trading anecdotes for anecdotes, but it's all the data we have.

You are unemployed. You can't afford to lose your nut. If you want 5% on your money, go to HSBC and get an online savings account. If you can afford to lock up your money, you can get longer term CDs or bonds that will pay slightly better. Anything else is gambling at this point. If you have a job and free cash, gamble away. The ideas on this thread amount to taking your bank account, and putting it to ride on black on the roulette table.The bulk of my money has been living in a tax free money market fund at Fidelity. It typically pays about 4-5% and you don't have to deal with the tax implications.

I also have money in various mutual funds. The Vice Fund (guns, gambling, booze, and tobacco) http://www.vicefund.com/ has been very kind the last 3 years ....

Charlie (off to collect aluminum cans) Monoxide

[Pyrts]

prosper.com. Ie yi yi. Read the forum. Everything goes swimmingly for the first few months. Read the accounts of people who have been at it for a year or more. It's generally a losing proposition.

Yup -- unless you're very careful. When you look at the stats you quickly see why banks don't loan to some of these folks. It's a bit riskier than stocks but not as risky as some things.

Charlie, it seems like you enjoy gambling. I suggest you play the lotto and forget about the other things. They're high risk activities and the last thing you need to do now is lose a bunch of money.

[Charlie Monoxide]

Charlie, it seems like you enjoy gambling. I suggest you play the lotto and forget about the other things. They're high risk activities and the last thing you need to do now is lose a bunch of money.Thanks for the advice.

The problem is, is that I've never been given a free drink when buying lotto tickets.

Charlie (feeding the cross addictions) Monoxide

[Francesca R]

I take FX positions for an investment bank. It has a very lumpy performance record. I lost money every month until July and then cleaned up in July and Aug. (look at NZDJPY for a decent barometer of my strategy . . . I have been short carry).

FX is not an asset class. It has no passive rate of return over cash. You're not compensated for the risk the same way you are in the stock market. You can only make money by outsmarting the rest of the market by more than transaction costs set you back.

My advice: do it with someone else's money :)

[Charlie Monoxide]

I take FX positions for an investment bank. It has a very lumpy performance record. I lost money every month until July and then cleaned up in July and Aug. (look at NZDJPY for a decent barometer of my strategy . . . I have been short carry).

FX is not an asset class. It has no passive rate of return over cash. You're not compensated for the risk the same way you are in the stock market. You can only make money by outsmarting the rest of the market by more than transaction costs set you back.

My advice: do it with someone else's money :)Isn't it a problem with trading non-US pairs that they both have to be converted to US $'s?

It's nice to hear that you can make money in Forex, but that clubs seems to be <%10 of the investors.

Charlie (still too shy to trade Forex) Monoxide