Darth Rotor
22nd August 2007, 07:17 PM
What are the pros and cons of predicting changes in the short and mid term oil market (not long term) based on news like I heard this morning:
"In Yucatan and Southern Mexico, oil production has stopped due to Hurricane Dean."
Gas prices in the US are influenced by refinery capacity as much as by raw oil supply, and demand, but short term fluctuations come for a variety of reasons.
A recent flux near where I live saw gas drop from 289 per gallon, to 259, and back up to 269 in the matter of three weeks.
No macro changes were visible as I watched the price of oil by the barrel.
Is Dean's influence on the Mexican oil output significant enough to warrant a cause/effect conclusion on oil supply to the US? They are our number two foreign source, after Canada.
DR
"In Yucatan and Southern Mexico, oil production has stopped due to Hurricane Dean."
Gas prices in the US are influenced by refinery capacity as much as by raw oil supply, and demand, but short term fluctuations come for a variety of reasons.
A recent flux near where I live saw gas drop from 289 per gallon, to 259, and back up to 269 in the matter of three weeks.
No macro changes were visible as I watched the price of oil by the barrel.
Is Dean's influence on the Mexican oil output significant enough to warrant a cause/effect conclusion on oil supply to the US? They are our number two foreign source, after Canada.
DR