you know its time to man the lifeboats when

[jimbob]

There is a new business paridigm meaning that the inherent value of a particular type of investment is suddenly higher than it has historically been, and we are not in the middle of a speculatitive bubble.

For example.

I am only 34 and can remember this happening several times already.

Any other examples or ideas?

[The Atheist]

I saw a great comment the other day: "When did an asset bubble ever burst gently?"

[geni]

The accountant moves on.

[geni]

I saw a great comment the other day: "When did an asset bubble ever burst gently?"

Gold does so from time to time.

[The Atheist]

Gold does so from time to time.

I don't know whether gold's position could ever have been described as a "bubble", but gold's a good one, because unlike almost anything else, its universality as a precious metal means that there will always be an intrinsic value.

[geni]

I don't know whether gold's position could ever have been described as a "bubble", but gold's a good one, because unlike almost anything else, its universality as a precious metal means that there will always be an intrinsic value.

Not garenteed. Silver crashed a few decades back. Palladium crashed in 2001 after a certain car company (ford) stopped buying up the world supplies and Russia sorted out the supply issues.

On the other hand Platinum bounces around a fair bit but I don't think it has ever exactly crashed.

[jimbob]

<derail>
talking about platinum:

I read in a (library) book that in the C19th some russian forgersfound a silvery metal that they knew wasn't silver and decided to make fake coins out of it.

This seems like an archetypal urban myth, can anyone else confirm this?

It would be fint if t'were true.

</derail>

[DRBUZZ0]

How do you know when it's over?

When you start hearing things like: "No, this is different!" "This is the *new* economics of business" "This time it's different." "This is the one"

Basically stuff implying that something which smells like just another naive attempt at doing something which business convention says won't work but hearing "No it's different" because of whatever new technology or social group or whatever is involved...

The more things change the more they stay the same...

[Francesca R]

. . . . when funds claim, most sincerely, that we have had a "twenty-five sigma event" instead of "we got that totally wrong"

[fishbob]

. . . when an accountant or other financial type takes over operations.

[madurobob]

Just happened to me several hours ago in an exec meeting: "we're not focused on driving profit, we're focused on driving buzz"

I thought, damn, we've gone into that business now? Time to get my re-org boots out.

[geni]

. . . when an accountant or other financial type takes over operations.

Generaly the accountant has a reasonable idea as to what shape the business is in and isn't going to get involved in something they think is going to fall over in the short term.

[fishbob]

Generaly the accountant has a reasonable idea as to what shape the business is in and isn't going to get involved in something they think is going to fall over in the short term.

In three instances I saw a financial type take over the operations of healthy companies (an oil company and two engineering companies). In two cases, lay-offs soon began (non-essential personnel), workloads for the remaining people gradually increased (not so non-essential after all) until long-term personnel began looking for other jobs, turnover increased, morale and quality of work decreased, and in each case over a period of 18 to 24 months there was a short-term increase in profitability followed by a long slow decline. The oil company sold out to a larger company, one engineering company recovered by changing management and reorganizing with operations people running operations.

The damage to the second engineering company may have been due to more to malfeasant pocket lining. The jury is still out on that one. Since the CEO was deposed, he left the state after a short stint running a Christian used car dealership ( I kid you not).

[jimbob]

Nothing so develops the latent fatuousness in a community as a speculative boom. It is probable that it presents an unresolved problem of restraint

J.K Galbraith in "American Capitialism" (Revised edition 1956. Pelican reprint 1970, p213).

I like Galbreith's writing

[Francesca R]

Generaly the accountant has a reasonable idea as to what shape the business is in and isn't going to get involved in something they think is going to fall over in the short term.I had understood that (an accountant taking over) to mean that the business had gone into administration :)

[geni]

I had understood that (an accountant taking over) to mean that the business had gone into administration :)

While that is one situation there are others such as being unable to find anyone better in the short term.

[rjh01]

Slight derail. You know it is time to panic when the fire alarms are going off at work and all the wardens, who are meant to be looking after you, leave the floor.

[a_unique_person]

In three instances I saw a financial type take over the operations of healthy companies (an oil company and two engineering companies). In two cases, lay-offs soon began (non-essential personnel), workloads for the remaining people gradually increased (not so non-essential after all) until long-term personnel began looking for other jobs, turnover increased, morale and quality of work decreased, and in each case over a period of 18 to 24 months there was a short-term increase in profitability followed by a long slow decline. The oil company sold out to a larger company, one engineering company recovered by changing management and reorganizing with operations people running operations.

The damage to the second engineering company may have been due to more to malfeasant pocket lining. The jury is still out on that one. Since the CEO was deposed, he left the state after a short stint running a Christian used car dealership ( I kid you not).

You're preaching to the choir here. Strangely, accountants are always essential.

[thrombus29]

1. When the recently fired CFO of your company sues your company's board and the chairman sends out a broadcast e-mail saying not to worry.

2. When Boban "Call me Bobby" the juiced up Serbian bouncer hired by the owner of your restaurant to keep the non-juiced up Serbians from fighting to hard points a gun at you because you won't make him some veal.

3. As a general rule, whenever anyone starts taking measurements of the area you work in.

[fishbob]

You're preaching to the choir here. Strangely, accountants are always essential.

Accountants are indeed essential for doing proper accounting.

[a_unique_person]

Accountants are indeed essential for doing proper accounting.

Everyone has an important part to play in a well run business, some are just more important than others, apparently.

[fishbob]

Everyone has an important part to play in a well run business, some are just more important than others, apparently.

Just to make my point clear - accountants in charge of technical services companies are a recipe for disaster.
Also steer clear if you see a financial company run by an engineer or a modeling agency run by a plumber.

[Mongrel]

Just to make my point clear - accountants in charge of technical services companies are a recipe for disaster.


A good example (http://worsethanfailure.com/Articles/Pay-the-Bills,-Bill.aspx) ;)

[timhau]

When cab drivers start giving out investment tips, sell.

[Leif Roar]

you know its time to man the lifeboats when

... they say the ship is unsinkable.

[a_unique_person]

A good example (http://worsethanfailure.com/Articles/Pay-the-Bills,-Bill.aspx) ;)



Jun-04: Chatted with April (Pokemon girl) about Unreal Tournament. She’s in a “clan.” It is her mission, apparently, to run out into the middle of an open area and get shot down so her teammates could spot the enemy.



:)

http://worsethanfailure.com/Articles/Diary-of-a-ThirdClass-Programmer.aspx