Chasing Two Rabbits

[Puppycow]

There is an old adage that says "He who chases two rabbits at once will catch neither."

This article (NY Times) (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/02/world/asia/02taliban.html?hp) and this video (http://video.on.nytimes.com/?fr_story=691460a13ccf0b985cbb476b43572a8f3d59f618 ) explain that the Taliban are having a resurgence in Afganistan, and are retaking territory that had previously been won.
KANDAHAR, Afghanistan, Aug. 26 — Over the past six weeks, the Taliban have driven government forces out of roughly half of a strategic area in southern Afghanistan that American and NATO officials declared a success story last fall in their campaign to clear out insurgents and make way for development programs, Afghan officials say.

A year after Canadian and American forces drove hundreds of Taliban fighters from the area, the Panjwai and Zhare districts southwest of Kandahar, the rebels are back and have adopted new tactics. Carrying out guerrilla attacks after NATO troops partly withdrew in July, they overran isolated police posts and are now operating in areas where they can mount attacks on Kandahar, the south’s largest city.

The setback is part of a bloody stalemate that has occurred between NATO troops and Taliban fighters across southern Afghanistan this summer. NATO and Afghan Army soldiers can push the Taliban out of rural areas, but the Afghan police are too weak to hold the territory after they withdraw. At the same time, the Taliban are unable to take large towns and have generally mounted fewer suicide bomb attacks in southern cities than they did last summer.

If we didn't have most of our army occupied in Iraq, we could afford to send reinforcements. Not only is the Iraq war a huge disaster, but it is also preventing us from winning this other war. If we weren't surging in Iraq, we could be surging in Afganistan. It is a huge opportunity cost and strategic blunder to have such a big commitment in Iraq. Bush and his advisors are completely incapable of strategic thinking.

If we had sent enough resources to Afganistan in the first place and really committed to transforming the country, we could have won a strategic victory and eliminated Al Qaeda. Instead, our strategy has made Al Qaeda stronger.

http://z.about.com/d/uspolitics/1/0/D/D/mission_accomplished.pnghttp://homepage.eircom.net/~yellowbeard/Ren.gifYOU EEEDIOT!

[andyandy]

would even Afghanistan ever be winnable anyway? The place is about 2/3 the size of europe, and combined with the terrain and climate, it's a monster of a country....Perhaps if we stationed 100,000 troops there permanently we might have some sucess...but i don't see any way out of Afghanistan without a Taliban resurgence.

[Charlie Monoxide]

would even Afghanistan ever be winnable anyway? The place is about 2/3 the size of europe, and combined with the terrain and climate, it's a monster of a country....Perhaps if we stationed 100,000 troops there permanently we might have some sucess...but i don't see any way out of Afghanistan without a Taliban resurgence.Looking at the situation in Afghanistan pre-Iraq invasion, at MINIMUM we (the true coalition of the willing), should have captured and/or dealt with Osama bin Laden and got the Taliban out of there. A stable democratic-like society would have been gravy.

Afghanistan has a long history of invasions and although I haven't studied the history in depth, it seems none of them were successful.

I still don't understand why Iraq was such a priority (notwithstanding neocons in power and an upcoming 2004 election) with the outstanding issues in Afghanistan.

Charlie (they make great hash) Monoxide

[andyandy]

Charlie (they make great hash) Monoxide

...they make good everything now...:D

2001 opium production under the taliban est ~200 tons
2007 opium production under coalition est ~8000 tons


Afghanistan now accounts for more than 93% of the world's opiates.
Helmand province is now the biggest single drug-producing area in the world, surpassing whole countries such as Colombia.
193,000 hectares of opium poppies are being grown in Afghanistan.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/6965115.stm

[Puppycow]

would even Afghanistan ever be winnable anyway? The place is about 2/3 the size of europe, and combined with the terrain and climate, it's a monster of a country....Perhaps if we stationed 100,000 troops there permanently we might have some sucess...but i don't see any way out of Afghanistan without a Taliban resurgence.

I think the answer is yes. Without Iraq that level of commitment would actually have been sustainable, if necessary. Even that commitment would be less than the current combined commitment of Afghanistan and Iraq. We would be free to use our best generals like Petraus and best units. The key 'center of gravity' I believe would be in education, especially of girls. If the majority came to see a better future for themselves through modern civilization, it would work in the long run.

[WildCat]

...they make good everything now...:D

2001 opium production under the taliban est ~200 tons
2007 opium production under coalition est ~8000 tons



http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/6965115.stm
Perhaps if we killed the opium farmers we could get the success rate the Taliban had? Do you support that?

[WildCat]

would even Afghanistan ever be winnable anyway? The place is about 2/3 the size of europe, and combined with the terrain and climate, it's a monster of a country....Perhaps if we stationed 100,000 troops there permanently we might have some sucess...but i don't see any way out of Afghanistan without a Taliban resurgence.
Yeah, sending in 100,000 troops worked so well for the Soviets.

[WildCat]

Looking at the situation in Afghanistan pre-Iraq invasion, at MINIMUM we (the true coalition of the willing), should have captured and/or dealt with Osama bin Laden and got the Taliban out of there.
You're assuming that OBL is actually in Afgfhanistan (unlikely) and "getting the Taliban out of there" is tantamount to "getting the Afghanis out of Afghanistan".

[andyandy]

Perhaps if we killed the opium farmers we could get the success rate the Taliban had? Do you support that?

woah mr confrontational! The fact remains that the continued surge in opium production has been a major failing of our involvement in Afghanistan - and undermines development. Surely one can remark as such without being given a Taliban or Freedom dichotomy? Or can we not talk about opium production? Is that too unpatriotic?

[DJW]

deleted due to stupidity

[RandFan]

deleted due to stupidityBeen there, done that.

[DJW]

Good company then.

[RandFan]

Good company then.Thanks, then again perhaps the saying, "mediocrity knows nothing higher than itself" is true. ;)

[qayak]

would even Afghanistan ever be winnable anyway? The place is about 2/3 the size of europe, and combined with the terrain and climate, it's a monster of a country....Perhaps if we stationed 100,000 troops there permanently we might have some sucess...but i don't see any way out of Afghanistan without a Taliban resurgence.

That wouldn't work. It would simply result in a longer war of attrition which you would eventually lose regardless of numbers.

The way to win the war is the tried and true method of colonization. Give free land out to any American/Brit/Canadian who was willing to move there and then have the military protect them ruthlessly. The local population is given two options: either assimilate and live as your conquerors do or be exterminated.

In a few years you would have the local population under control and more territory in your possession. In a few more years, once the locals have gotten used to the system, you would be able to allow them into government without having to worry about their reverting to the tribal system.

[WildCat]

woah mr confrontational! The fact remains that the continued surge in opium production has been a major failing of our involvement in Afghanistan - and undermines development. Surely one can remark as such without being given a Taliban or Freedom dichotomy? Or can we not talk about opium production? Is that too unpatriotic?
If Europeans would stop using heroin the market for Afghani opium would be almost non-existent, and production would cease.

[andyandy]

If Europeans would stop using heroin the market for Afghani opium would be almost non-existent, and production would cease.

in the early 90s production was around 3000 metric tons
under the Taliban crackdown it was reduced to around 200metric tons
Now it is 8000metric tons

whichever way you dance, those aren't impressive figures. It supplies 87% of the global opiate trade - there are an est. 3.3million heroin addicts in Europe and 11million globally - so even if you wish you can't blame it all on European junkies. In any case, when did we slip into utopia-land? Eradicate drug use in Europe? There's a greater chance of establishing functional democracy in iraq...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/afghanistan/story/0,,2112348,00.html

[Puppycow]

Even with 100,000 troops of course, tactics and strategy still matter.
And there were policies that actually encouraged opium production early on.
They paid farmers who were producing opium to stop producing it, which of course had the perverse effect of incentivizing farmers who hadn't been producing to start production so that they could also be eligible for payments. A more effective approach would have been to subsidize other food crops.
It should be possible to crack down on poppy production without getting as barbaric as the Taliban also. But it would help to begin with better security.

[Charlie Monoxide]

You're assuming that OBL is actually in Afgfhanistan (unlikely) and "getting the Taliban out of there" is tantamount to "getting the Afghanis out of Afghanistan".I think you should familiarize yourself with the history of the Taliban. They're primarily a hard-code Muslim group from Pakistan that came in after the vacuum left by the Soviet invasion.

And even if OBL is straddling a border, kill the SOB and put his head on a pike for the news media.

If you want to defend Mr W., tag your post with "Bush apologist" for clarity sake ...

Charlie (Iraq Invasion = biggest centurial mistake so far and the century is still young) Monoxide

[Madalch]

would even Afghanistan ever be winnable anyway? The place is about 2/3 the size of europe...

Europe is about 10 million km^2. Afghanistan is about 650 000 km^2.

I think you meant 2/30 the size of Europe.

[corplinx]

And if we stationed 400,000 troops in Afghanistan we would be hearing about how were smothering them when we don't even know if OBL is there or not.

Would people stop linking troop levels in Afghanistan to the capture of OBL as if they knew this was the way to magically capture him in hindsight.

[leftysergeant]

Bush has obviously never really studied military strategy, and takes advice mostly from others even less wise than he. (There actually are a few such. Like William Kristol and Scooter Libby.)

The drooling lot of PNAC apparently refuse to learn anything of military value from the history of Afghanistan. Nor have they read Clausewitz or Sun Tzu.

The most important lesson that they failed to learn was that of WWII and Hitler's decision not to invade England because he really wanted to invade Russia all along and besides the Brits, after Dunkirk, looked like they would be HARD to beat.

Will someone remind me again why soldiers are supposed to vote Republican because they are so good for the military?

[Charlie Monoxide]

Will someone remind me again why soldiers are supposed to vote Republican because they are so good for the military?Not just the soldier, but his/her family as wll. I heard one gentleman state the reason he is voting for Bush in the fall of 2003, is "because he has a nephew fighting in Iraq". The logic still escapes me to this day ....

Charlie (can't beat the GOP spin machine) Monoxide

[RandFan]

Charlie (can't beat the GOP spin machine) MonoxideNo kidding, have you seen the presidents high poll numbers lately? That's some spin machine.

Anecdotes are so persuasive.

[andyandy]

Europe is about 10 million km^2. Afghanistan is about 650 000 km^2.

I think you meant 2/30 the size of Europe.

oops....missed one of the zeroes in the comparison :)

[andyandy]

And if we stationed 400,000 troops in Afghanistan we would be hearing about how were smothering them when we don't even know if OBL is there or not.

Would people stop linking troop levels in Afghanistan to the capture of OBL as if they knew this was the way to magically capture him in hindsight.

When was the last time anyone heard from OBL? It's a few years no? we might need to start looking 6 feet underground to find him....

[corplinx]

Nor have they read Clausewitz or Sun Tzu.


Oh my god, they haven't read Sun Tzu! That's the key to it all.

Jewels like "If you are far from the enemy, make him believe you are near."

Seriously, Sun Tzu's Art of War is the most highly overrated tome on warfare. We can all find wise sounding quotes from Sun Tzu, but the truth is most battles go to the stronger side with more boots, guns, planes, and bombs. It is neither required reading nor would I say optional since most of it falls within common sense.

The more you post, the more I doubt your credentials.

[leftysergeant]

"Know both your enemy and yourself.."

Rummy told Shinseki that he didn't need more than 150k soldiers to fight the war in Iraq. He said the Iraqis would welcome us.

He based his policies on what he thought the world should be like. He disregarded vital intelligence assessments.

He was willfully ignorant, and thought that his will was all that was needed to turn the advantage.

"When the cat is on the hole, a thousand rats will not venture forth.."

The best defense is NOT always a vigorous offnse.

And this lot is not capable of a good offense.

[Charlie Monoxide]

No kidding, have you seen the presidents high poll numbers lately? That's some spin machine.

Anecdotes are so persuasive.I was referring to the GOP spin machine circa Sept 2003.

Like that 1 dentist of of 5 who won't endorse sugar free gum (according to the commercials), I can't understand anyone supporting the president now.

Charlie (thank jebus for 2 term limits) Monoxide

[corplinx]

"Know both your enemy and yourself.."



This quote is also from the Military periodical "Duh".

It doesnt take Sun Tzu to grok that.

[Puppycow]

Would people stop linking troop levels in Afghanistan to the capture of OBL as if they knew this was the way to magically capture him in hindsight.

It might have made the difference. But if we can't argue about this then every past decision cannot be questioned because we can't go back and do it over and see what would have happened. I don't know exactly what would have happened, but it seems likely that more troops or at least the option to add more troops might have been useful and might be useful now. My main point is not that we didn't capture OBL, but that the Taliban are resurgant.

[Puppycow]

Like that 1 dentist of of 5 who won't endorse sugar free gum (according to the commercials), I can't understand anyone supporting the president now.

Maybe they want to drum up more work for themselves.

[drkitten]

This quote is also from the Military periodical "Duh".

Yeah. The problem is that the White House doesn't read that either.

If you're suggesting that only idiots read Sun Tzu, because everything he says is obvious to anyone with an IQ in double-digits.... well, I might agree. But what does that say about the US high command, to whom Sun Tzu's insights are not obvious?

[andyandy]

This quote is also from the Military periodical "Duh".

It doesnt take Sun Tzu to grok that.

but nevertheless it would apparently be a quote that Rumsfield should have paid more attention to.....

instead we have the exhibit of the self same Orientalist mindset of Chateaubriand who (in 1810) talks in terms of the orientals requiring conquest to deliver them liberty - and a pervasive mindset that dominated European oriental thought - the theme of europe teaching the orient the meaning of liberty, and of europe knowing what was best for the orientals - (better than they knew themselves) regardless that orientalist scholarship sought only to project the western interpretation, the "idealised" orient, and did little to truly understand the populace as human, as distinct from concept.

You could add Said's Orientalism to the Rumsfield's reading list - then perhaps he could have taken the lessons from history to avoid the play out of European failures on an American level.

[Puppycow]

Yeah. The problem is that the White House doesn't read that either.

If you're suggesting that only idiots read Sun Tzu, because everything he says is obvious to anyone with an IQ in double-digits.... well, I might agree. But what does that say about the US high command, to whom Sun Tzu's insights are not obvious?

Good point! Common sense was in short supply. Bush needed some plain easy-to-grok advice in short monosyballics words and simple sentences with no subordinate clauses.

Clearly Bush & Company didn't "know his enemy or himself" because he bit off more than he could chew. And he believed the ravings of some screwball codenamed Curveball, which turned out to have no basis in reality (which was already known in the intelligence community, but somehow they nevertheless deluded themselves into believeing it anyway and used it to sell the war).

[andyandy]

the most amazing thing with apparently taking with surity the opinions of exiled iraqis, is that they themselves had a vested interest in the overthrow of saddam - so hardly would make the most objective of analysists. We have Chalabi who is very influential in the administration's justification of saddam's overthrow through the INC, who enjoys the position of oil minister and then deputy PM after saddam has been deposed.

The most telling quote, after being asked in 2004 to justify why the INC information had proved to be so wrong, he replied,

"We are heroes in error. As far as we're concerned, we've been entirely successful. That tyrant Saddam is gone and the Americans are in Baghdad. What was said before is not important."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2004/02/19/wirq19.xml

do not trust a man who has a vested interest in lying to you. Another lesson worth learning.

[Pardalis]

Since this is about Bush, shouldn't the title say : "Chasing two wabbits?"

[KoihimeNakamura]

I'm going wabbit hunting, huhuhuhuh!

[Puppycow]

I think you mean this guy:
http://members.aol.com/lupinaccim/cheney-elmer-2.jpgThere's something scwewy awound heah!

[timhau]

would even Afghanistan ever be winnable anyway?

Of course it's winnable. The problem is whether the country is livable for a couple of generations after the win.

[drkitten]

Of course it's winnable.

Bring in the nukes. No population -- ergo, no popular unrest.