1 in 909,000 chance in 2014... [Archive]

King of the Americas

3rd September 2003, 05:42 AM

...indeed.

1 in 909,000...???

THOSE are VERY sh!tty odds given astronomical terms.

Isn't that the same date the Mayans proposed would be the day for the New Beginning?

QUESTION:

*WHY aren't we doing something to make those odds better??? Throw Bruce Willis up there with a nuclear bomb or something. I mean DAMN...just sitting back and waiting for this cosmic roll of the dice sounds pretty f*cking ignorant if you ask me.

The only reason they even announce these odds to the public was the way too many people looked into the sky due to Mars' arrival and departure.

What astounds me is that this is no big deal, it is JUST a 1 in 909,000 chance of hitting us...

WHAT THE F*CK!?!?

I am not saying people should go ape ***** nuts, but we damn sure should have some kind of plan of action to better our odds!!!

The Don

3rd September 2003, 05:55 AM

Originally posted by hgc
Hell of a lot better chance than winning the lottery, and someone is doing that pretty much every week. So now I'm nervous too.

:D

..... never mind

Hexxenhammer

3rd September 2003, 05:56 AM

Originally posted by King of the Americas
...indeed.

1 in 909,000...???

THOSE are VERY sh!tty odds given astronomical terms.

Isn't that the same date the Mayans proposed would be the day for the New Beginning?
I was waiting for this. No, it's not the Mayan date. Check out this thread of Xoupers. (http://www.randi.org/vbulletin/showthread.php?s=&threadid=25934) The Mayans couldn't predict their own demise, why should they have predicted ours?

And no those odds aren't sh!tty. They're 1 in almost a million. That's great odds. 1 in 100 and I'd worry, but not 1 in a million.

Dragon

3rd September 2003, 06:14 AM

Originally posted by hgc
Hell of a lot better chance than winning the lottery, and someone is doing that pretty much every week. So now I'm nervous too.

:D

Don't be. Millions of people do the lottery so there's a very good chance someone will win. I'm with Hexxenhammer - 1:1,000,000 (roughly) is OK by me.
Mind you this figure is for just one NEO, if there were millions of them, each with similar odds of hitting the Earth ...

hgc

3rd September 2003, 06:20 AM

Originally posted by Dragon

Don't be. Millions of people do the lottery so there's a very good chance someone will win. I'm with Hexxenhammer - 1:1,000,000 (roughly) is OK by me.
Mind you this figure is for just one NEO, if there were millions of them, each with similar odds of hitting the Earth ... It'll be the million meteor march on Earth!

:re:

King of the Americas

3rd September 2003, 06:33 AM

...the odds AREN'T "1 in a million", they are 1 in 909,000.

That's almost a hundred thousand worse odds than 1 in a million!

Secondly, 'I' remember the date as being 2012, too. However, it WAS "March of 2012", or possible May...

Have you read this yet?

MY "Rapture Theory"

Statement of Theory: When a highly civilized entity witnesses the coming danger of extinction of a lesser entity, said civilized entity make an attempt to stop the extinction process *IF they deem that species 'worthy'.

Evidence: When we Civilized Humans TODAY see the Bengal Tiger in danger of extinction, we make an attempt to stop the process. Fail or Succeed an attempt is made.

FACT: The Earth has suffered an asteroid impact that caused massive extinction of life across the planet.

FACT: The Earth will suffer another asteroid impact in the future that will cause similar damage *A 1 in 909,000 chance on March 21, 2014.

Conclusion: When We, as mere Humans, are in danger of extinction, an even more highly evolved entity will make an attempt to stop the process, *IF We are deemed worthy of salvation.

Hexxenhammer

3rd September 2003, 07:09 AM

Originally posted by King of the Americas
Conclusion: When We, as mere Humans, are in danger of extinction, an even more highly evolved entity will make an attempt to stop the process, *IF We are deemed worthy of salvation.
So, are you a alien nut, or a Jesus nut?

slimshady2357

3rd September 2003, 07:14 AM

Originally posted by King of the Americas
...the odds AREN'T "1 in a million", they are 1 in 909,000.

That's almost a hundred thousand worse odds than 1 in a million!

Those are odds are fine by me. A one shot chance where the odds are 1 in 909,000 is worrying you?

I'll sell you a lottery ticket with a 1 in 909,000 chance of winnning $100,000,000 for 10 bucks. You should jump at the chance, you have the same odds as the NEO hitting us afterall ;)

Only 10 measely bucks and you could win $100,000,000! One ticket only though ;)

Adam

Crossbow

3rd September 2003, 07:18 AM

Er, KOA did you actually read the articles you posted?

In the second and third paragraph of the CNN article it says:

...

But for those fearing Armageddon, don't be alarmed -- the chances of a catastrophic collision are just one in 909,000.

Asteroid "2003 QQ47" will be closely monitored over the next two months. Its potential strike date is March 21, 2014, but astronomers say that any risk of impact is likely to decrease as further data is gathered.

...

That bit about "don't be alarmed" is good advice; just wait a few weeks and see what some better data has to say about the issue before continuing your public Chicken Little routine.

King of the Americas

3rd September 2003, 07:24 AM

Independent Progressive Theorist, thank you.

---

To SS:

No thanks, I don't play the lottery, at all.

---

To Crossbow:

The announcement of 1 in 909,000 just has me asking questions like , "Why the f*ck aren't we sending up a bunch of test pilot G.I. Joes, and some kind of deterring sytem intended to BETTER those odds!?"

I am not saying we should all starting digging holes in our backyard, but rather what I AM SERIOUSLY suggesting is thazt we NOT just go with those odds as 'acceptable'.

I am NOT suggest the sky is fallying, I AM suggesting we KEEP it from doing so!

Hexxenhammer

3rd September 2003, 08:03 AM

Originally posted by King of the Americas
Independent Progressive Theorist, thank you.

An equal-opportunity nut. Ah.

King of the Americas

3rd September 2003, 08:12 AM

Would you prefer an "Associated Traditional Follower"???

Give me a break, I take what 'I' know to be true from my own emperically collected data, and I state what 'I' believe will happen in the future based upon my own independent findings.

Why would you characterize my stance with the false dicotomy of one 'nut or another'???

Crossbow

3rd September 2003, 08:17 AM

Originally posted by King of the Americas
..

To Crossbow:

The announcement of 1 in 909,000 just has me asking questions like , "Why the f*ck aren't we sending up a bunch of test pilot G.I. Joes, and some kind of deterring sytem intended to BETTER those odds!?"

I am not saying we should all starting digging holes in our backyard, but rather what I AM SERIOUSLY suggesting is thazt we NOT just go with those odds as 'acceptable'.

I am NOT suggest the sky is fallying, I AM suggesting we KEEP it from doing so!

OK then, the reason why were are not sending up manned space ships to intercept the asteriod is because we do not have the technology to send manned space ships that could intercept the asteriod in the manner you suggest.

And besides, just wait a few weeks and it may turn out that there is no way the asteriod will present any danger to the Earth so there would be no point in developing such technology.

ShowMe

3rd September 2003, 08:21 AM

Or we could, you know, wait until all the data was gathered and then make a truly informed prediction.

Oh, wait. They did that already:

http://www.msnbc.com/news/960340.asp?0cv=TB10

"Observations gathered on Monday night, however, allowed astronomers to plot the asteroid’s orbital course more precisely. By Tuesday evening, the risk for 2014 was eliminated. JPL said there was still a 1-in-2.2 million chance that an impact could occur sometime in the next century, but that is far below the “background risk” of a catastrophic collision in any given year."

I'm certain that something else catastrophic will come about shortly, so I guess you can comfort yourself with that.

King of the Americas

3rd September 2003, 08:35 AM

...this 'asteriod' COULD be diverted with ANY kind of explosion, couldn't it???

We don't have to destroy it, persay, just nudge it a little further away.

We HAVE to have that kind of technology, and if we don't then we have at least a decade to develope it.

1 in 2.2 million is better, but not yet good enough.

Crossbow

3rd September 2003, 08:47 AM

Originally posted by King of the Americas
...this 'asteriod' COULD be diverted with ANY kind of explosion, couldn't it???

We don't have to destroy it, persay, just nudge it a little further away.

We HAVE to have that kind of technology, and if we don't then we have at least a decade to develope it.

1 in 2.2 million is better, but not yet good enough.

All right KOA, I take it from your question that you really have not studied this issue in any detail, yes?

If so, then that is fine by me so just try to follow along.

If the asteriod has a very low mass, is very far away, and not moving that fast, then yes, it would not take much of an explosion to change its path (perhaps even a few sticks of dynamite could do the job).

If the asteriod is very massive, very close, and moving very fast, then it will take substanitally more energy to change its path (perhaps something on the order of a nuke).

In this case, it is still far to early to accurately determine the data regarding postion, mass, speed, trajectory, the influence of other factors, on the asteriod in question so one cannot tell just what would be needed to change its path. Thus, I keep on telling you that you will have to wait a few weeks for better data before making any big decisions.

Psiload

3rd September 2003, 08:58 AM

Originally posted by King of the Americas
...indeed.

1 in 909,000...???

THOSE are VERY sh!tty odds given astronomical terms.

Isn't that the same date the Mayans proposed would be the day for the New Beginning?

QUESTION:

*WHY aren't we doing something to make those odds better??? Throw Bruce Willis up there with a nuclear bomb or something. I mean DAMN...just sitting back and waiting for this cosmic roll of the dice sounds pretty f*cking ignorant if you ask me.

The only reason they even announce these odds to the public was the way too many people looked into the sky due to Mars' arrival and departure.

What astounds me is that this is no big deal, it is JUST a 1 in 909,000 chance of hitting us...

WHAT THE F*CK!?!?

I am not saying people should go ape ***** nuts, but we damn sure should have some kind of plan of action to better our odds!!!
The woo woo credo:

When in danger or in doubt, run in circles scream and shout.

PygmyPlaidGiraffe

3rd September 2003, 09:02 AM

over zealous amateurs at work?

reevaluation of threat (http://www.cbc.ca/stories/2003/09/03/asteroid030903)

They say they need more data. If so why did they release the statement of the probability of impact with earth?

What an irresponsible and premature statement to make.

slimshady2357

3rd September 2003, 09:04 AM

Originally posted by King of the Americas

1 in 2.2 million is better, but not yet good enough.

Has anyone got any statistics handy? 1 in 2.2 million has to be comparable to some of the dangers we face every day. Like getting hit by a car crossing the road, or dying in a plane crash, or getting bitten by a shark.....

1 in 2.2 million is not good enough? Give me a break :roll:

Adam

Crossbow

3rd September 2003, 09:06 AM

Originally posted by Psiload

The woo woo credo:

When in danger or in doubt, run in circles scream and shout.

Amen Psiload!

Silicon

3rd September 2003, 09:25 AM

Originally posted by slimshady2357
Has anyone got any statistics handy? 1 in 2.2 million has to be comparable to some of the dangers we face every day. Like getting hit by a car crossing the road, or dying in a plane crash, or getting bitten by a shark.....

1 in 2.2 million is not good enough? Give me a break :roll:

Well, you estimate the number correctly, but not the danger.

You liken it to a shark attack. Now, a shark attack isn't that serious a thing, since only one person dies.

In a massive collision extiction-level-event, EVERYONE dies.

You are only weighing one side of the danger, the probability.

In risk-avoidance, you have to weight the likelihood of the catastrophy AGAINST the severity of the catastrophy.

Now this one looks like yet another false alarm. But no a million-to-one odds isn't good enough to risk the life of everyone on the planet for. I say send Bruce Willis.

And Crossbow, EVERYONE knows you can't just push it away with a nuke. You have to get the world's best deep-core drilling team, a ragtag crew of roughnecks.

Crossbow

3rd September 2003, 09:33 AM

I guess that it is your lucky day KOA!

You did not even have to wait a few weeks to get the status on that asteriod you have been fretting over. From 'Yahoo!' news:

A newly discovered asteroid that generated doomsday headlines around the world yesterday morning was, by the end of the day, reduced to innocuous status as additional observations showed it would not hit Earth.

...

You can get out from under you bed now, all is well.

:p

Grammatron

3rd September 2003, 09:34 AM

Silicon

3rd September 2003, 09:43 AM

Estimated 7 billion people in 2014.

2,200,000 : 1 odds of impact=

A risk/severity quotient of 3181.

In 1992, about 1 million divers swam in the Florida Keys. Of these, 2 were bitten (neither bite was fatal).

So those odds are 2 in a million. So about 4 times as likely as our asteroid impact.

so that's

500,000 : 1 odds of bite

1 death (assuming the worst)/500,000 =

A risk/severity quotient of .0000002

So I fear our asteroid by about ten orders of magnitude more than a shark attack.

Grammatron

3rd September 2003, 09:47 AM

slimshady2357

3rd September 2003, 10:08 AM

Originally posted by Silicon
Estimated 7 billion people in 2014.
2,200,000 : 1 odds of impact=
A risk/severity quotient of 3181.
In 1992, about 1 million divers swam in the Florida Keys. Of these, 2 were bitten (neither bite was fatal).
So those odds are 2 in a million. So about 4 times as likely as our asteroid impact.
so that's
500,000 : 1 odds of bite
1 death (assuming the worst)/500,000 =
A risk/severity quotient of .0000002
So I fear our asteroid by about ten orders of magnitude more than a shark attack.

Assuming you have even the slightest, mildest, weakest fear of getting attacked by a shark while in the water, you must literally be sh*tting your pants right now. You must be building the most intense underground shelter ever imagined. You must be gathering all your family and friends and convincing them to join you. You must be frantically getting ready, for ten years is hardly enough time for all this.

Oh, you're not building a shelter? You're not right now, calling everyone you know and convincing them to join you in the shelter building business?

Hmmm could that be because you're full of sh*t when you say you fear the asteroid collision 10 BILLION times more than you fear a shark attack? Hmmmm?

Adam

Silicon

3rd September 2003, 11:00 AM

SS,

I have no fear of getting bitten by a shark.

I have enough fear of an asteroid that I think people should be monitoring the sky.

I think you are getting a bit too emotional about an internet discussion.

Grammatron, I think my number errs, but on the greater side of danger of shark attacks, since we know that florida is a hotbed of shark attacks.

I went with data that's easy to find. You run the math yourself, if you think it's not accurate. You have shark attack data for the entire world, plus swimming data for the entire world? Bring it.

c0rbin

3rd September 2003, 11:16 AM

So, are you a alien nut, or a Jesus nut?

KOA feeds at the buffet of Pseudo-Science and comes back for more!

Grammatron

3rd September 2003, 11:16 AM

Originally posted by Silicon
SS,

I have no fear of getting bitten by a shark.

I have enough fear of an asteroid that I think people should be monitoring the sky.

I think you are getting a bit too emotional about an internet discussion.

Grammatron, I think my number errs, but on the greater side of danger of shark attacks, since we know that florida is a hotbed of shark attacks.

I went with data that's easy to find. You run the math yourself, if you think it's not accurate. You have shark attack data for the entire world, plus swimming data for the entire world? Bring it.

The best data I found suggest about 15 people are reported to die as a result of a shark. If we want to be very liberal about it, lets say 30 people die a year because half of the incidents are unreported. That's still very low, but the data is deceiving if you want to use it in comparison with the NEO rate. As far as I know, sharks only attack you when you are in water, thus, avoiding water -- living in the middle of a desert for example -- reduces your chances to pretty much 0. It is, however, much hard to avoid being on Earth.

slimshady2357

3rd September 2003, 12:19 PM

Originally posted by Silicon
SS,

I have no fear of getting bitten by a shark.

Why?

I have no fear of getting hit by an NEO.

Adam

Silicon

3rd September 2003, 12:44 PM

Originally posted by Grammatron

The best data I found suggest about 15 people are reported to die as a result of a shark. If we want to be very liberal about it, lets say 30 people die a year because half of the incidents are unreported. That's still very low, but the data is deceiving if you want to use it in comparison with the NEO rate. As far as I know, sharks only attack you when you are in water, thus, avoiding water -- living in the middle of a desert for example -- reduces your chances to pretty much 0. It is, however, much hard to avoid being on Earth.

Hey, we're halfway there. Now give me the number of people who swim in a year, and we'll have enough numbers for you to run the calculation you were quick to criticize me about.

Silicon

3rd September 2003, 12:46 PM

Originally posted by slimshady2357

Why?

Because I don't swim in the ocean.

But I do live on the earth, so therefore I think watching the sky for NEO's is prudent.

Grammatron

3rd September 2003, 12:54 PM

Originally posted by Silicon

Hey, we're halfway there. Now give me the number of people who swim in a year, and we'll have enough numbers for you to run the calculation you were quick to criticize me about.

It's your claim, you do it.

Silicon

3rd September 2003, 02:30 PM

I don't think the number exists of an estimate of how many people in the world swim in the ocean. So I took a sample of the Florida Keys.

Sorry if it's not a represantative sample. I think it is.

If you have better numbers, have at it.

Grammatron

3rd September 2003, 03:17 PM

Originally posted by Silicon
I don't think the number exists of an estimate of how many people in the world swim in the ocean. So I took a sample of the Florida Keys.

Sorry if it's not a represantative sample. I think it is.

If you have better numbers, have at it.

Perhaps a better thing to show would be the odds of people drowning; maybe you'll start fearing water? :)

King of the Americas

4th September 2003, 06:33 AM

...well those ARE 'slightly better' odds than the 1 in 909,000, but still not acceptable when considering astronomical numbers.

THIS is why NASA not only needs to be fully funded, but 'expanded' greatly. We have GOT to push technological innovation, and incourage inventive initiative toward space, if for no other reason, than to give more earthlings a broader perspective on that which they exist and depend on.

The problem is that far too many of us are far too myopic.

Hey, there is NOW a 1 in 2.2 million chance of us getting smacked with something so big that it would cause mass extinction. And no one is worried about not having a back-up plan!?!?

I have a problem with that, I think that the Human Species is, if there was one, THE steward for Earth and all that lives on it. If there is something that threatens ALL that lives here, the whale and dolphins aren't building something to save our collective arses. Its Us, or God...and God has been somewhat inconsistant in the past, and even picky about those who he'll help.

So I say, it's up to Us. Are we going to sit around and let some piece of space garbage take us out, or are we going to come together in a collaberative effort to save Ourselves?

Why ISN'T this event possibility announcement enough to create this attitude on a global basis?

1 in 2.2 million?

It DOES sound better then 1 and less than a million...but where did THAT number come from to begin with???

Frostbite

4th September 2003, 08:09 AM

I sure hope it hits the Earth, so then at last I can stop wasting my time working to earn a living and do what I always wanted to do: to hunt down radioactive rats and eat them.

Jocko

4th September 2003, 08:10 AM

Are the odds 1 in 2.2 million just for THAT year, or every year? I'm guessing just for that year, because if the last mass extinction occured 65 million years ago, wouldn't that put the odds at LEAST at 65 million to 1 in any given (average) year?

Besides, why get into a bed-wetting panic now, when we're apparently able to spot these suckers coming 11 years in advance? It's not like we're going to wake up someday and realize we only have 48 hours to live. That's about the same time from the advent of manned space flight to human footsteps on the moon. A lot can happen in 11 years when we're motivated.

And if ignoring a 1-in-65-million threat makes me myopic, then I guess I'm myopic. At least I don't get my sense of urgency from third-rate Bruce Willis movies.

richardm

4th September 2003, 09:01 AM

Originally posted by Crossbow

You can get out from under you bed now, all is well.

:p

Hmm. Can we still fire Bruce Willis into space anyway?

Crossbow

4th September 2003, 09:35 AM

Originally posted by King of the Americas
...well those ARE 'slightly better' odds than the 1 in 909,000, but still not acceptable when considering astronomical numbers.

THIS is why NASA not only needs to be fully funded, but 'expanded' greatly. We have GOT to push technological innovation, and incourage inventive initiative toward space, if for no other reason, than to give more earthlings a broader perspective on that which they exist and depend on.

The problem is that far too many of us are far too myopic.

Hey, there is NOW a 1 in 2.2 million chance of us getting smacked with something so big that it would cause mass extinction. And no one is worried about not having a back-up plan!?!?

I have a problem with that, I think that the Human Species is, if there was one, THE steward for Earth and all that lives on it. If there is something that threatens ALL that lives here, the whale and dolphins aren't building something to save our collective arses. Its Us, or God...and God has been somewhat inconsistant in the past, and even picky about those who he'll help.

So I say, it's up to Us. Are we going to sit around and let some piece of space garbage take us out, or are we going to come together in a collaberative effort to save Ourselves?

Why ISN'T this event possibility announcement enough to create this attitude on a global basis?

1 in 2.2 million?

It DOES sound better then 1 and less than a million...but where did THAT number come from to begin with???

KOA, if you were a reasonable person I may be able answer you questions and assuage your fears given enough time and temperament, however in this case one is not dealing with a reasonable indvidual.

So I trust that you will kindly excuse me as I decline the attempt, thank you.

Hexxenhammer

4th September 2003, 09:39 AM

Originally posted by Jocko
Are the odds 1 in 2.2 million just for THAT year, or every year?
No, just for that 1 particular asteroid hitting in 1 particular year.

Crossbow

4th September 2003, 09:39 AM

Originally posted by richardm

Hmm. Can we still fire Bruce Willis into space anyway?

By all means! His ego is already the size of a 500 man space-station. Psst! Maybe we sneak all those old copies of 'Hudson Hawk' up there with him so we will never have to see that movie listed in program schedule again.

:p

Giz

4th September 2003, 09:39 AM

1 in 2.2 million!

Quick, British Space Agency, prepare to deploy: Stiff Upper Lip!

Silicon

4th September 2003, 12:18 PM

Originally posted by Jocko

Besides, why get into a bed-wetting panic now, when we're apparently able to spot these suckers coming 11 years in advance? It's not like we're going to wake up someday and realize we only have 48 hours to live.

Actually, last year, we DID spot one 3 DAYS AFTER it passed us. Asteroid 2002MN.

Nothing we could do. It passed well inside the distance of the moon and Earth, at a distance of 75,000 miles, going 23,000 miles per hour.

But this one wasn't big enough to wipe out all civilization. It was just big enough to wipe 2000 square kilometers off the map.

"The best estimate of the probability of a civilization-threatening collision in the next century is nearly one in 1,000. " -Carl Sagan

Jocko

4th September 2003, 12:30 PM

Originally posted by Silicon

"The best estimate of the probability of a civilization-threatening collision in the next century is nearly one in 1,000. " -Carl Sagan

Interesting- but without knowing what magnitude of destruction is necessary to meet Sagan's definition of "civilization-threatening," it's hard to pin down.

I mean, if we're talking about the Dinosaur killer, that's at least 65 million years between events. Sagan pegs that at a mere 100,000 years between events, 650 times more frequently!

Either he's talking about a much smaller event, or someone slipped a digit or two (maybe me, my math has never been too sharp).

On the other hand, however, if we're not even spotting all these threats in advance, what good is a spaceborne weapon to deflect it? If we can't observe it coming, we can't shoot it.

I think I'll retire to my original strategy regarding the imminent threat of NEOs... ignoring it and opening another beer.

[Edited to fix one of what is probably a host of math errors.]

Jocko

4th September 2003, 12:34 PM

Originally posted by Silicon

Actually, last year, we DID spot one 3 DAYS AFTER it passed us. Asteroid 2002MN.

Nothing we could do. It passed well inside the distance of the moon and Earth, at a distance of 75,000 miles, going 23,000 miles per hour.

But this one wasn't big enough to wipe out all civilization. It was just big enough to wipe 2000 square kilometers off the map.

Well, I guess that depends on which 2,000 sq. km we're talking about before I can get upset about THAT... for instance, north central Texas being vaporized could actually be considered a boon.

Silicon

4th September 2003, 01:02 PM

Originally posted by Jocko

On the other hand, however, if we're not even spotting all these threats in advance, what good is a spaceborne weapon to deflect it? If we can't observe it coming, we can't shoot it.

So if we can't find all of them, we shouldn't look at all?

That doesn't seem prudent.

What's the subset of NEO's that we can

1: find and
2: do something about

If you don't look for them, you won't find any of them in the 2 subset.

The next dinosaur killer might be one we can see 120 years in advance, and can we steer off course, given that amount of lead time.

Telescopes are cheap. I say we look.

Pyrian

4th September 2003, 01:41 PM

Frankly, I'm much more concerned that humanity will make the Earth unlivable than any outside phenomenon. Especially with the Bush administration pushing to increase use of methyl bromide.

Silicon

4th September 2003, 02:33 PM

Originally posted by Pyrian
Frankly, I'm much more concerned that humanity will make the Earth unlivable than any outside phenomenon.

There's no reason we can't try to avert both. It's not an either/or dichotomy.

peptoabysmal

4th September 2003, 10:58 PM

RPG Advocate

5th September 2003, 05:55 AM

Originally posted by peptoabysmal

It's still better than the lottery. The possible permutations for six numbers gives odds around 14 billion, with a b, to 1. Throw in a powerball or mega number and it becomes (pardon the pun) astronomical.

I believe that in most lotteries, order is irrelivant. Therefore, you would be working with the number of combinations, rather than permutations, which is quite a bit smaller.

King of the Americas

5th September 2003, 05:58 AM

...AND 1 in 2.2 million could hardly be considered 'astronomical' chances.

1 in 2.2. million sound like pretty sh!tty odds if you as me.

That we actually MISSED one that came between us and the moon astounds me.

That this is 'no big deal', just a 2 minute news story at best, on most stations, and that was WITH the 1 in 909,000 chance!

People are stupid.

Individuals can be intelligent, insightful, and be very compitent. However the 'group', they know know and act upon very little outside of their immediate environment. That's why the power outage and 9-11 were so important. They 'shocked' the masses into understanding and perceiving a great cause...

...but the People still don't get it. Sure you may know several people who read the whole paper, maybe even bits of several different papers oe written pieces each day. However, there are far too many of those that aren't. And its not just the kids.

We don't care, and this time we don't care that there is a 1 in 2.2 million chance that we could get hit by something so big and fast that it ends what we know as Life...

Why aren't we talking about increasing the NASA budget, to at the very least try to collect more information about this NEO? Why aren't we talking about releasing patent information about how to make orbital rockets, to allow the private sector in on the race???

Why isn't this much much more IMPORTANT???

Jocko

5th September 2003, 07:20 AM

Originally posted by Silicon

So if we can't find all of them, we shouldn't look at all?

That doesn't seem prudent.

What's the subset of NEO's that we can

1: find and
2: do something about

If you don't look for them, you won't find any of them in the 2 subset.

The next dinosaur killer might be one we can see 120 years in advance, and can we steer off course, given that amount of lead time.

Telescopes are cheap. I say we look.

No argument here, chum. But even if we reduce the risk to 1 in a hundred billion, that won't keep the KOA from pounding his fist and ranting how we must always be doing MORE, MORE MORE!

Which was my real point.

wollery

5th September 2003, 10:02 AM

We are looking!

http://spaceguard.esa.int/
http://www.ll.mit.edu/LINEAR/
http://spacewatch.lpl.arizona.edu/
http://neat.jpl.nasa.gov/

Add to that the huge raft of amateurs that are constantly searching for asteroids and comets and you can see that there's a lot of asteroid hunting going on

And for a realistic treatment of the science and hazards, and what we might do about it

http://impact.arc.nasa.gov/

As for the dubious statistics that people have been coming up with in this thread I can only say that if an astrophysicist says that a single event has a 1:1,000,000 chance of happening then you can be pretty sure that it isn't going to happen. Also you cannot assign a risk value to an extinction level event in the same way that you can to a shark attack, they just don't compare!

Aoidoi

5th September 2003, 05:19 PM

In case anyone still cares: http://www.cnn.com/2003/TECH/space/09/05/asteroid.miss/index.html

Chance is now 0. The joy of such things is that once you've found the object, it hitting the Earth is deterministic... it can be calculated as a yes/no, not a probability. :)

Psiload

5th September 2003, 05:24 PM

Originally posted by King of the Americas
...AND 1 in 2.2 million could hardly be considered 'astronomical' chances.

1 in 2.2. million sound like pretty sh!tty odds if you as me.

That we actually MISSED one that came between us and the moon astounds me.

That this is 'no big deal', just a 2 minute news story at best, on most stations, and that was WITH the 1 in 909,000 chance!

People are stupid.

Individuals can be intelligent, insightful, and be very compitent. However the 'group', they know know and act upon very little outside of their immediate environment. That's why the power outage and 9-11 were so important. They 'shocked' the masses into understanding and perceiving a great cause...

...but the People still don't get it. Sure you may know several people who read the whole paper, maybe even bits of several different papers oe written pieces each day. However, there are far too many of those that aren't. And its not just the kids.

We don't care, and this time we don't care that there is a 1 in 2.2 million chance that we could get hit by something so big and fast that it ends what we know as Life...

Why aren't we talking about increasing the NASA budget, to at the very least try to collect more information about this NEO? Why aren't we talking about releasing patent information about how to make orbital rockets, to allow the private sector in on the race???

Why isn't this much much more IMPORTANT??? The chance of the asteroid hitting the Earth are actually 50/50... either it will hit us, or it won't.

Anyone remember that doozy?

RSLancastr

5th September 2003, 06:34 PM

Originally posted by slimshady2357
Has anyone got any statistics handy? 1 in 2.2 million has to be comparable to some of the dangers we face every day. Like getting hit by a car crossing the road, or dying in a plane crash, or getting bitten by a shark.....Now I am afraid to go outside! :eek:

Can you tell me what the odds are of my being in a plane that crashes into an intersection where I get hit by a car, which subsequently knocks me into the ocean, where I get bitten by a shark? As a meteor destroys Earth?

These things keep me awake nights...