Dowsing By Edge

[edge]

My point is if you test the way I stated there can't be not one excuse.

[jsfisher]

So, when can the JREF expect your (re-)application?

[Klaymore]

If I said it doesn't it follow I understand it?

You know, I once knew a parrot who could say "Cogito ergo sur."

[Tricky]

My point is if you test the way I stated there can't be not one excuse.
You underestimate the ability of failed dowsers to make excuses. Heck, you agreed that the test was fair on the first test, but as soon as it was over, you started making excuses. The same is true of Connie Sonne. Experience has shown that almost all dowsers who have failed a fair test (which means 100% of them) will make excuses. Some of them are laughably ludicrous.

[William Smith]

My point is if you test the way I stated there can't be not one excuse.

Great. Pick a location and stick with it.

I bet twenty globnarks you will change your position ...
6: I pick the spot to test at in a park near their office for their convenience.
... at least once during this thread.

I bet two thousand globnarks that you will not apply properly. Properly means: Application accepted by the JREF. This shouldn't be too hard for you since you seem sure you fulfill all qualifications, right?

[William Smith]

Your proposed protocol features the same problems which have been dealt with ad nauseam in the links I provided earlier.
The main problems:

1. Academic affidavit.
2. The number of trials (100) makes the test too long.
3. You being unable or unwilling to stick to one protocol proposal.

You know the JREF will not accept a protocol proposal which makes for a test duration of more than eight hours.

If you propose a test which takes longer than eight hours, you are setting yourself up for rejection. We have been here before, remember?

[Tricky]

I'm taking the fairly unusual step of merging this thread with a much older thread that covers much of the backstory here. This is a moderated thread which means your posts will have to be approved, so try to stay on topic, which is Edge's try at the Million Dollar Challenge. General dowsing posts should be put in the General Skepticism and Paranormal forum.

Thanks

[edge]

You people really crack me up,
you say you want to do the science and then in the same breath:
You know the JREF will not accept a protocol proposal which makes for a test duration of more than eight hours.



If I can spend the night in Ldale. they live there And lets see I would probably spend two nights there, what's so hard? I am doing the tuff stuff?
This will zap my energy.

[edge]

Edited for topic

If you propose a test, which takes longer than eight hours, you are setting yourself up for rejection. We have been here before, remember?

That's not why but it was a concern.
Real science takes time that's all there is to it and the final proof will take time what can i say.
Let me do it the old way that is a proven failure?
I have found out why every test is a failure when done that way and there are multiple reasons why, unless?
I already know for sure so prove me wrong.
I won't change the way my set up is, my target and what I use in my stick is up to me.
It won't be a tray.
Probably will be gold in the end of my stick and I will use it for a target too.
I am going to do a test with mercury as a target and I know they will not like that in the test it's too dangerous for them they’ll freak out.
That test will be F.M.I….

[Gmonster2]

"What I discovered is pig wire in the slab we were standing on as with most fairly modern buildings.
Or possibly in that building rebar crisscrossing for reinforcing of the concrete.

The same thing has happened in and on other locations where I have tested on slabs."



Which is why Jref has an open test before you started to check everything was ok and there was no interference yet you went ahead with the test and didn't mention it , why is that?

[remirol]

I won't change the way my set up is, my target and what I use in my stick is up to me.


No, edge. I don't think they're going to let you put magnets in your stick and then dowse for iron.

[Tricky]

You people really crack me up,
you say you want to do the science and then in the same breath:
Actually, the MDC is not touted as a scientific experiment. It is designed to see if you can do what you say you can do. If you can do it with magic, no science need be involved.

If I can spend the night in Ldale. they live there And lets see I would probably spend two nights there, what's so hard? I am doing the tuff stuff?
This will zap my energy.
I cannot see anything in your protocol that should require strenuous exertion, so you must be talking about some other kind of energy. I suppose it might be possible to make the test last longer, but you realize that few people are going to volunteer to take two days out of their lives to watch this. If they have to be lodged while you restore your "energy", that is going to be even more expense for you. It is better for your own finances that you keep the test as short as possible. I don't think Randi is going to give you an advance on the million.

[Lothian]

If I can spend the night in Ldale. they live there And lets see I would probably spend two nights there, what's so hard? I am doing the tuff stuff?With all respect, getting results in accordance with chance ain't that tough. You just choose a hard way to do it.

[petre]

As a starting point for people new to Edge, let me pose a situation:

Imagine your life experiences have led you to believe in a paranormal phenomenon, but you accept that you do not understand exactly how it works (just because you've discovered something doesn't instantly make you an expert in all aspects of it of course). Now add that you are also willing to believe in a very large number of unknown confounders (i.e. that there are many things that alter how the phenomenon behaves), many of which occur naturally nearly everywhere on earth. Now attempt to devise a controlled test that will demonstrate this phenomenon consistently. Whenever you consider the thought "My original conclusion that this phenomenon exists may have been incorrect, given my exhaustive study of the matter and continued inability to achieve consistent results in a controlled test", strengthen your resolve and resist the urge to accept that thought. Instead drive on to postulate a refined theory of the phenomenon where some other previously-unconsidered aspect of your testing environment must have been a confounder. Embrace this new refined theory and retest until satisfied that it is consistent (and if it is not, then refine the theory further).

Now fast-forward that thought experiment 7 years. After about a thousand tests, you've succeeded (once) in producing results that you would only expect at a likelyhood of 1:1000 by chance alone. You then proceed immidiately to making renewed overatures to the JREF at being ready to be tested. You might still have a few kinks to work out (you "kinda" tested it again and it didn't work great, but you didn't "really" try to test it much, it already worked once!) but you can do all of that in the ample time it will take to get your application accepted anyway. If you decide to see that whole process through of course.

I wish that every applicant had the willingness to self-test that Edge has demonstrated time and again. Edge is a fine example of why for some people, it would be better for them if I didn't get my wish. I don't necessarily mean it would be better in Edge's specific case. He appears to live a somewhat-fulfilling life in this pursuit or I would not participate, for fear of encouraging him.

With the challenge drawing to a close, I suppose there must eventually be a "last test". It could be a Carina Landin test, or maybe Connie Sonne's test at the last TAM will be the swan song of this chapter. If I had to choose though, I'd probably pick an Edge retest.

[politas]

Alright let me start with this, I was watching my arms and my hands to see if it was the ideomotor effect in other words I made sure I didn’t move at all.
No looking away from my hands or arms.
Meditating to be perfectly still. He was assigned to observe and report the readings of the scale.None of these controls are effective at preventing the ideomotor effect. The only ways to prevent the ideomotor effect from operating is double-blinding or dowsing using some device you weren't actually in physical contact with in any way.

Now that I know that I was perfectly still. Having some one do this isn’t necessary for the test; we had to learn much quickly as I had just figured out this important part of the test measuring the force both ways.
If I need some one to help see it for me because it also twists it will be a JREF rep.You will need to make the determination of which container holds the target entirely by yourself (or perhaps with the help of a friend). There is no way that you could trust a JREF examiner to give you helpful assistance. The test is confrontational.

[edge]

First thing I have tested many times in the way my protocol is set up.
We could do 800 passes and it would still be in the 70 to 90% range.
Second thing is it as I see it this is not paranormal at all, this is my belief and conclusion on that issue. This might be the only category that may be provable for that reason.

It is not something that is Ideomotor although it can appear that way, in some instances it might have some bearing on it and appear that way.
I cam see that with the L shaped rods, because it's impossible to keep them level while walking.

The JREF never said they wouldn't test in that way because it is still double blind and more if they want it that way, which might mean I am correct about the negativity of proving it to be something other than above mention reasons why it occurs, "dowsing", what as set down by the JREF and other scientists and peoples of the past there's where the magic came from, the paranormal.

I never said I was dowsing with steel and magnets.

I have never seen a magnet that could react to steel at a four foot level unless it was in a steel mill, like where I worked in the past, they had a 15 ton capability electromagnet on the end of a crane, that would be kind of hard to put into the end of a willow stick, stop being afraid and looking for false reasoning to retain your belief on other peoples' word.

Ask SezMe if I ever got closer than 4 feet to the target.
If you viewed his report then you know that the dowsing stick was tied to a truss with a string at that level.

I wouldn't have to pay them to stay there; they live there in their homes, right there in Ldale if they work in the office I am sure they have homes there.

Edited for topic - moderated thread

[edge]

You will need to make the determination of which container holds the target entirely by yourself (or perhaps with the help of a friend). There is no way that you could trust a JREF examiner to give you helpful assistance. The test is confrontational.

I don't trust no one, your right, so I will have to get new glasses. oh well need em any way. :)

[rjh01]

No, edge. I don't think they're going to let you put magnets in your stick and then dowse for iron.

Great tip for you. Agree to douse for gold (provided by you). Then turn up with a regular metal detector. Please note you must have practiced with this metal detector beforehand. Some of them do not detect gold, or may require adjusting for gold.

Remember my standard advise (always rejected for some reason) is practice using the protocol a lot. Just the smallest of changes can change success to failure as another recent applicant found out. She convinced her family of her ability then failed because she had to use another, slightly different protocol.

[EHocking]

First thing I have tested many times in the way my protocol is set up.
We could do 800 passes and it would still be in the 70 to 90% range...Mike, I still think that the major stumbling block is the time that would be required to take your test.

You could reduce both setup and trial time as well as material needed by testing for 1 sample in 5 containers.

Admittedly, you'd have to get 10 from 10 for a 10 pass trial to beat 1:1Million odds, but has JREF determined that these MUST be the odds you need to beat for the preliminary?

If not, 10 passes of 5 containers (i.e. 50 in total) would require a success rate of 8 to beat odds of 1:10,000. Perhaps sufficient for a preliminary?

ETA. I see from post 4 from JREF (http://forums.randi.org/showpost.php?p=2727246&postcount=4) in the original Challenge thread that the odds given to beat for edge are indeed 1:10,000.
"A positive result for the preliminary test will be identifying the target substance (of either gold or silver) correctly in seven out of the ten sets of ten."
Source (http://www.automeasure.com/chance.html)for my "calculation" of odds.

[Marcus]

You people really crack me up,
you say you want to do the science and then in the same breath:

If I can spend the night in Ldale. they live there And lets see I would probably spend two nights there, what's so hard? I am doing the tuff stuff?
This will zap my energy.
Haven't we been through this before? Many times? We tell you why something would not be acceptable in a protocol, you say, "well, it should be" and insist on leaving it in. You are quite experienced at the challenge now, you should know the rules without people having to quote them at you.

[edge]

Mike, I still think that the major stumbling block is the time that would be required to take your test.

You could reduce both setup and trial time as well as material needed by testing for 1 sample in 5 containers.

Admittedly, you'd have to get 10 from 10 for a 10 pass trial to beat 1:1Million odds, but has JREF determined that these MUST be the odds you need to beat for the preliminary?

If not, 10 passes of 5 containers (i.e. 50 in total) would require a success rate of 8 to beat odds of 1:10,000. Perhaps sufficient for a preliminary?

ETA. I see from post 4 from JREF (http://forums.randi.org/showpost.php?p=2727246&postcount=4) in the original Challenge thread that the odds given to beat for edge are indeed 1:10,000.
"A positive result for the preliminary test will be identifying the target substance (of either gold or silver) correctly in seven out of the ten sets of ten."
Source (http://www.automeasure.com/chance.html)for my "calculation" of odds.

I don't think they would go for 50 but yes that would be a one day trial.

[NoZed Avenger]

First and most basic question:

Has any suitable place been located where these dowsing powers can work? I mean, not just "I assume there is a place" or "the must be some place," but an actual, "I have stood in a field and it will absolutely be acceptable" place?

[edge]

First and most basic question:

Has any suitable place been located where these dowsing powers can work? I mean, not just "I assume there is a place" or "the must be some place," but an actual, "I have stood in a field and it will absolutely be acceptable" place?

I can look in pretty much any area and find a dead spot somewhere, has to be out side.
The wrost possible place would be where SezMe and I tested.

[CynicalSkeptic]

First and most basic question:

Has any suitable place been located where these dowsing powers can work? I mean, not just "I assume there is a place" or "the must be some place," but an actual, "I have stood in a field and it will absolutely be acceptable" place?

I can look in pretty much any area and find a dead spot somewhere
That would be a "no".

[EHocking]

I don't think they would go for 50 but yes that would be a one day trial.What are your grounds for such a statement?

Given the explanation of required odds in my previous post and the preceding MDC protocol discussion, there is no reason why 10 trials with 5 test samples would not be a reasonable prospect.

Stop making things difficult for yourself. One of the main problems with your proposed protocol IS the time required. Why not explore a protocol that satisfies the required success rate by JREF that ALSO reduces the required time to conduct the test?

If you're serious, I suggest you email the JREF team with whether 10 trials of 5 IS sufficient, rather than dismissing the suggestion out of hand. Working on reducing the effort for your protocol is going to help your chances of JREF accepting a protocol - dismissing it out of hand without consultation seems like avoidance...

[politas]

I never said I was dowsing with steel and magnets.No, but you never said you weren't, either. Leaving the target and stick unspecified leaves open the posibility that you could turn up with a hunk of magnetised steel and a rare earth magnet on a stick, and if the JREF had agreed to a protocol which said you could use whatever you wanted, they would be forced, according to the legal agreement of the protocol, to let you use it. This is why your protocol needs to specify what the target will be, and what you will use as your dowsing tool.

Ask SezMe if I ever got closer than 4 feet to the target.
If you viewed his report then you know that the dowsing stick was tied to a truss with a string at that level.But your protocol doesn't state anything about this, so there's no reason you couldn't bring your stick right down close to the target.

Remember, Edge, the protocol is part of a legal agreement involving a million dollars potentially being given to you. The JREF is not going to accept a protocol that leaves possible loopholes for you to employ obvious trickery.

[vIQleS]

I know that this is probably a waste of time, but here is my attempt to translate / convert / expand the OP into a readable protocol suggestion:

Equipment:
(All to be provided by edge and approved and inspected by JREF agent/s before test)


10 opaque (non-see-through) containers (or buckets if using cardboard boxes)
Ballast material (Flour OR Rice OR Corn[to be defined])
Quanity of gold and/or mercury (subject to state and local statutes etc)
10 Identical cardboard boxes (optional)
Dowsing rod etc as needed
Tent or Marquee (Depending on location)
Labels - 1 to 10
Score sheets etc
1D10


People:


Edge (E)
Friend of Edge (FoE)
JREF Rep 1 (R1)
JREF Rep 2 (R2)
JREF Rep 3 (R3)


Setup:

Area of land to be chosen by E - general location to be agreed upon in advance by both E and Testing Agency.

Location must include two 'isolation' locations (one for E & R3 and one for FoE & R1). If necessary, a marquee or tent will be set up to screen the testing area from participants between tests.

Imediately prior to testing, area will be dowsed by E to determine 'neutral' or 'Safe' zones with no interferance. Tent and nearby buildings will also be dowsed to make sure they are not interfering with dowsing ability.

Containers and boxes will be clearly labeled 1 - 10.

Pretest:


10 containers will be loaded with ballast and placed on the ground in pre-dowsed 'safe' zones.
One 10 sided dice will be rolled in full view of all participants
Test Substance (TS) will be placed in the bucket or container that coresponds to the number rolled and covered or sealed
With all participants present, E will attempt to dowse for the TS.
Results will be recorded and then containers opened and results verified


Open Test:


10 containers will be loaded with ballast and placed on the ground in pre-dowsed 'safe' zones.
E & R3 will wait in IZ2
R2 will wait in IZ1
R1 (in the presence of FoE) will roll dice and place TS in the appropriate container
Containers will all be sealed and covered with boxes
R1 wil pickup and put down each container (and the box covering) ensuring that the container remains within designated safe zone.
R1 & FoE will retreat to IZ1 and inform R2 that the test has been set up AND which number was rolled
R2 will go to IZ2 and tell E & R3 that they may enter the testing area and perform the dowsing. R2 will also inform them which number has been rolled
E & R3 will enter the testing area and atempt to locate the TS by dowsing.
Results will be recorded and then everyone will be recalled to open the containers and check results.


Assuming that E has passed the first 2 tests, testing will proceed to the official MDC qualifying test.:

Actual test:

10 trials consisting of the following:


E & R3 will wait in IZ2
R2 will wait in IZ1
R1 (in the presence of FoE) will roll dice and place TS in the appropriate container
Containers will all be sealed and covered with boxes
R1 wil pickup and put down each container (and the box covering) ensuring that the container remains within designated safe zone.
R1 & FoE will retreat to IZ1 and inform R2 that the test has been set up.
R2 will go to IZ2 and tell E & R3 that they may enter the testing area and perform the dowsing.
The number rollled will obvously not be revealed during the real tests
E & R3 will enter the testing area and atempt to locate the TS by dowsing.
Results will be recorded and then everyone will be recalled to open the containers and check results.

Repeat as necessary

E will be allowed up to [ten] minutes for each test (with aprox 5 minutes to reset each time). Total time should be no more than 2.5 hrs.

[Klaymore]

Seems solid to me, but it won't be acceptable to Edge because it looks too much like an actual, solid, test of dowsing that would give Edge no better than a random chance of finding the test object. Edge tried that kind of test in 2002, and has spent the ensuing 7 years trying to come up with one that he can beat, but that Randi will accept.

One thing that keeps jumping out at me as I read through this thread is this continued insistence of Edge's on having 10 one-out-of 10 trials. As a rule of thumb, the JREF requires a test that gives the applicant a 1:1000 chance of passing by sheer luck (see Connie Sonne, Patricia Putt, etc.). With 10 containers and one test object, Edge should only have to run the test three times, and succeed every single time. (1:10)^3=1:1000.

Edited for moderated thread.

[pakeha]

Hi, vIQleS.
I've read over your protocol and to my inexpert eye, it looks pretty good.
One thing-would constant video recording of the event be included?

[William Smith]

vIQleS' protocol

Does this mean that edge possible never faces the gold/target while dowsing?

[Spektator]

As I understand it, and Edge will correct me if I am wrong, he wants each target to be placed in the exact same spot; so someone would bring target 1 out, place it on the limited spot; Edge would come out, dowse it, say yea or nay, and then go back out of sight of the area. Someone would remove target 1 and replace it with target 2; Edge would then come out, dowse, etc.

This looks to be much more time-consuming than the suggested protocol.

I'd suggest that Edge go for three correct tries out of three attempts at finding a 1-in-10 target.

[jsfisher]

As I understand it, and Edge will correct me if I am wrong, he wants each target to be placed in the exact same spot; so someone would bring target 1 out, place it on the limited spot; Edge would come out, dowse it, say yea or nay, and then go back out of sight of the area. Someone would remove target 1 and replace it with target 2; Edge would then come out, dowse, etc.

This looks to be much more time-consuming than the suggested protocol.

I'd suggest that Edge go for three correct tries out of three attempts at finding a 1-in-10 target.

This would create several problems, more than just duration. For one, what prevents someone from tampering with the containers after it has been tested by Edge?

[remirol]

As I understand it, and Edge will correct me if I am wrong, he wants each target to be placed in the exact same spot; so someone would bring target 1 out, place it on the limited spot; Edge would come out, dowse it, say yea or nay, and then go back out of sight of the area. Someone would remove target 1 and replace it with target 2; Edge would then come out, dowse, etc.

This looks to be much more time-consuming than the suggested protocol.

Yes, I agree. It also raises my "misdirection" warning flags: it's a sufficiently artificial activity in context that I can't help but suspect there's another reason to do it this way that I just haven't seen yet. The most obvious reason, to me, is that the simple act of moving the targets around might somehow reveal some information; stationary targets can be checked to ensure similarity and all "cleared" prior to the test actually beginning. Moving this check to the time period when the test is ongoing introduces a potential for error (intentional or otherwise) that I simply can't see the need to permit.

Edge, is there any particular reason you would need things to be done this way?

[Tricky]

Yes, I agree. It also raises my "misdirection" warning flags: it's a sufficiently artificial activity in context that I can't help but suspect there's another reason to do it this way that I just haven't seen yet. The most obvious reason, to me, is that the simple act of moving the targets around might somehow reveal some information; stationary targets can be checked to ensure similarity and all "cleared" prior to the test actually beginning. Moving this check to the time period when the test is ongoing introduces a potential for error (intentional or otherwise) that I simply can't see the need to permit.

Edge, is there any particular reason you would need things to be done this way?
I don't suspect Edge of some ulterior motive in asking for this. I think he honestly thinks that the difference of a few feet in location will give different "vibes" that he will be unable do distinguish from the target. I suspect that this is in part because he actually has tested himself in private and has found that his "powers" are highly variable. This says two things to me. First, that he is doing his best to test himself honestly, and secondly, that the conclusion that he has no powers is not an acceptable explanation.

Randi himself has said that among test applicants, dowsers are far an away the most honest and the most likely to agree to a fair test. Unfortunately, like Edge showed after his first test and like Connie Sonne showed after her test, they are not so honest and fair that they won't find some excuse to make for their failure. Unlike "psychic" frauds though, this is not out of intent to decieve, but out of inability to let go of their beliefs.

[vIQleS]

Hi, vIQleS.
I've read over your protocol and to my inexpert eye, it looks pretty good.
One thing-would constant video recording of the event be included?

Yes - I meant to add something to that effect. I would suggest video surveilence of the test area and both holding zones. Also the video would have to be able to see the d10 and the test area, so probably 2 cameras there. But I'm sure that the JREF has their min recomendations for that sort of thing...

Does this mean that edge possible never faces the gold/target while dowsing?

If by faces, you mean sees, then no - after the first open test, he will not see the gold until the dowsing has been completed. When teh results have been recorded, then the buckets are checked with all participants present.

Otherwise I'm not sure what you mean - he can face anyway he likes while dowsing...

As I understand it, and Edge will correct me if I am wrong, he wants each target to be placed in the exact same spot; so someone would bring target 1 out, place it on the limited spot; Edge would come out, dowse it, say yea or nay, and then go back out of sight of the area. Someone would remove target 1 and replace it with target 2; Edge would then come out, dowse, etc.

Yeah - I was a bit confused by this, and had intended to get clarification from Edge. I'm not sure why, or how much more effort it would take. Unless they setup some sort of conveyor belt... :D

[William Smith]

...
If by faces, you mean sees, then no - after the first open test, he will not see the gold until the dowsing has been completed. When teh results have been recorded, then the buckets are checked with all participants present.

Otherwise I'm not sure what you mean - he can face anyway he likes while dowsing...
...

I meant: Does this mean that under your proposed protocol, the target is possibly never put before edge's dowsing rod for edge to dowse, due to the numbers rolled with the dice?

[edge]

Open means I can see the target.
I had to do this ten times because of ten different placses the containers where set on.
In this test there is only one spot for the containers to sit on.
We only need to do that once as i get the readings when the target is there and when it is not.
I can check the other 9 non targget containers to make sure the readings are all the same when no target is present.

Sezme and i went into the closed blind test right after I got the two different readings, this saved time.

As far as the blind test target appears one out of ten passes.


Ehocking said:
If not, 10 passes of 5 containers (i.e. 50 in total) would require a success rate of 8 to beat odds of 1:10,000. Perhaps sufficient for a preliminary?

This would save time too.

Basically if you look at SezMes' test that would be the way only in those ten tries the target would appear only once. and we would have 9 more sets to do.


vIQleS not bad.

Study the way the open test was done in 2002, I had to dowse ten times , all I need is 2 times with this protocol, the target doesn't have to appear in every container for me to know my so called powers are working.


When SezMe and I did it I took my 2 inital readings and went right into it,"the blind test", it was simple and fast.

[edge]

Open and closed test consists of 10, 11.5 once coffee cans made of plastic.
Each can is to have approximately 10 ounces of filler or ballast.
That ballast can be corn, rice.
I will choose a spot in a park or at a house where I will set up a tri pod app. 5 feet tall somewhere in Ft-Lauderdale.
From there I will hang a scale on a short piece of twine and from it’s clip I will hang another short piece of twine to which my dowsing stick will be tied as in the SezMe test.
For the open test I will check the readings of the containers with all the ballast in place then once with the target assuring all the readings are the same empty or with target.
Targeted and empty containers in full view. Lids off.

Once I am satisfied we can proceed to the closed test.

1: All targets will pass across one spot, one at a time.

2: There will be 100 passes with the target showing up 10 time in all the passes, once every ten sets of passes.

4: Let me put it another way each set of ten will have the target show up once there will be ten sets of ten containers.

5: As before you will want me to get at least 8 of ten correct, picking out the target each
time they are present, this will mean also that I have to get 90 correct hits on the
empty containers with out the target present, that in it's self is an extraordinary
accomplishment.

EHocking says, above in number 5 all I need is 7 out of 10 to match the odds. Number 6 he says:

6: You could reduce both setup and trial time as well as material needed by testing for 1
sample in 5 containers.
Admittedly, you'd have to get 10 from 10 for a 10 pass trial to beat 1:1Million odds, but
has JREF determined that these MUST be the odds you need to beat for the preliminary?
This means the target will be changed every tenth time or every fifth time in ten total
sets for each.

7: One of your people hangs with me one of mine hangs with you.

8: Anything else you want to do to insure I don’t see or hear is up to you. Depending on
where we are at when I choose a spot.

9: You can also cover the containers with a box also made of cardboard or plastic on the
X spot.

10: The target can be any kind of metal, gold, iron, nickel, silver, as long as it is metal.
I might even use mercury if you aren’t scared since mercury covered gold is mined
where I was dredging.
Target will be in it’s own container placed in the can with the ballast and when on the
X spot it all can be covered with a small cardboard box, triple wrapped so to say.

11: I might use silver or a regular dime or gold in the end of the dowsing stick.

12: You can use cards or dice to get the number 1 through10 for placement of targets in
which container that coincides with that number or 1 through 5.

13: You can send the cans through in any order of each set, either 1through 5 or 1
through 10 set.

14: the JREF team with one of my members will pick a card or roll a dice to get the number
of the can that will hold the target then they will place the cans on the spot one at a
time and each time I will come out to the x spot and say yes or no.




15: to win the million I must repeat the closed test one more time if I understand this correctly.

Did I leave any thing out is it understandable.

[William Smith]

...
somewhere in Ft-Lauderdale.
...

Knowing your previous insisting on "the right spot" and understanding the need to adhere to your protocol, have you tried to find a suitable spot in Ft. Lauderdale?

If you haven't - which I assume, since you do not live in the neighbourhood - what besides your previously mentioned "convenience for the JREF" makes you claim "somewhere in Ft. Lauderdale" is acceptable for your protocol?

Are you absolutely sure your protocol will meet the JREF's demand for a test duration of less than eight hours?

[vIQleS]

Did I leave any thing out is it understandable.


Still a little confusing in parts...

Friendly suggestion: If you have to say (in one of your steps) "Let me put it another way" then perhaps you need to rewrite the previous step...

How about: My protocol, but instead of 10 containers spread out - we'll just do one at a time.


Roll a 4 sided die. If the result is 4, load the gold into the can. If not - can will have only ballast.


Then the dowsing result for each trial will be simply "yes" or "no". With there being a 1 in 4 chance of being right.

You could of course use a 6, 10, 20 or 100 sided die until the odds are as you want it.

[Marcus]

That looks pretty good. A couple of observations and questions:

Odds as high as 1000:1 may be accepted for the preliminary.

How much time will you require with each target?

Will you self test using this protocol?

[Spektator]

I do not know, but I think, that number 15 is wrong. You will have to meet higher odds in the second test--maybe finding just one target out of 100. However, I do not know this, and I'm sure someone will correct me.

[jsfisher]

I do not know, but I think, that number 15 is wrong. You will have to meet higher odds in the second test--maybe finding just one target out of 100. However, I do not know this, and I'm sure someone will correct me.


Edge is claiming he can succeed 7 times in 10 trials. The math is a little complicated because he allows himself up to 3 failures anywhere during the trials, but if I did the math correctly, he's working at roughly 1 in 100,000 chance of success by luck alone.

Not quite the 1,000,000 to 1 odds some have suggested would be needed for the final, but more than sufficient for the preliminary trial.

By the way, at 4 successes out of 5 trials, Edge would be above the 1 in 1,000 mark while cutting the time commitment in half.

[Klaymore]

I do not know, but I think, that number 15 is wrong. You will have to meet higher odds in the second test--maybe finding just one target out of 100. However, I do not know this, and I'm sure someone will correct me.

As long as the odds of passing the test by chance alone are no better than 1:1000, the JREF would probably accept the same test twice. The odds of passing a 1:1000 test twice in a row are 1:1,000,000.

[edge]

Knowing your previous insisting on "the right spot" and understanding the need to adhere to your protocol, have you tried to find a suitable spot in Ft. Lauderdale?

If you haven't - which I assume, since you do not live in the neighbourhood - what besides your previously mentioned "convenience for the JREF" makes you claim "somewhere in Ft. Lauderdale" is acceptable for your protocol?

Are you absolutely sure your protocol will meet the JREF's demand for a test duration of less than eight hours?

When I took the test in Ldale the first time before i went into the office i checked the ground out side to see what I would feel there and it is similar to any other ground i have tested.

There are major attractions and blank or neutral spots so there shouldn't be a problem finding a suitable spot to test in any where down there.

I will do a test here, probably several as I need a suitable target plus check my two base lines to make sure here in Palm Bay I get a low number for the non target container and the highest number for the target when it is placed.
Should be a breeze.

As far as duration of test I will find all that out soon EHockings’ idea seems to be the way to cut that time factor in half.

The less time I spend dowsing the better for me as I explaned it in the paranormal part of the forum.

Marcus I haven't done this in a while but yes I will self test and do more experimenting very soon tofine tune it, what I find next will determan if I should procced or not.

vIQleS yep I need to fine tune it to make sure they understand it, it's a great deal to do and be clear on so we can do the whole test with out any excuses from both sides, I'll make those changes and we will all view the final protocol.



Fri.8/09 my time 9: 46

[CynicalSkeptic]

Are you absolutely sure your protocol will meet the JREF's demand for a test duration of less than eight hours?

If he can dowse each set of 10 in say 30 minutes, that's only 5 hours of dowsing. That should leave plenty of time for setup and breaks.

I'm not sure how reasonable that is. That's 3 minutes per container including time to swap out the containers. Edge is that possible? I seem to remember in your test with SezMe it took longer as the day went on, is that correct?

The protocol as Edge has written is by far the most coherent I've seen from him yet. Below is my attempt at writing Edge's protocol up more along the lines of what JREF expects while following his requirements as I understand them. Also, I'm only focusing on the actual steps of the dowsing, and not getting terribly specific about his equipment (like no magnets) or how to isolate everyone.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Materials:
10 Identical 34 oz Plastic Coffee Containers (specify color/brand, etc.), empty with foil seal completely removed, numbered 1-10 with permanent ink
1 20 lb. bag of rice (specify color/grain/brand, etc.)
1 10 sided die
Gold taget, weighing no more than 3 ounces.
Two Isolated areas: Perperation & Dowsing. The Dowsing area shall be pre-selected by Edge as free from interference with his abilities.

To be double blinded there will be 3 groups or "teams" of people. 1 JREF rep, and one witness for Edge will be on each team (on team 3, it will be Edge himself).
T1: Target placement team
T2: Container moving team
T3: Dowsing team

Perparation.
--- The following steps will be performed only by T1 in the Preperation Area. Members of T2 & T3 can not witness.
1. Fill all 10 containers with precisely 2 lbs. of rice.
2. Roll the 10 sided die
3. Record the die roll
4. Remove [the weight of the target] ounces of rice from, and place the target in the container corresponding to the die roll
5. Place the lids and seal all the containers in such a way that any evidence of tampering will be obvious (JREF will probably require more detail)
6. Team 1 shall leave the perparation area with their data from step 3.

--- The following steps shall be performed only by T2.
7. Deliver a single container to the dowsing area (can they be in sequential order, or does the order need to be shuffled?).
8. Edge shall have 3 minutes to dowse and declare whether the target exists in that container or not.
9. Edge's decision will be recorded.
10. The container will be removed back to the preparation area.
(repeat 7-10 for all 10 containers)
---
11. T1 & T2 shall verify the seals have not been tampered with.
12. Empty the contents of all containers recording the container holding the target, and verifying that all other containers only held ballast.
13. T1 shall validate that the correct container held the target as recorded in step 3.
14. T2 shall leave the preperation area.

(Repeat 1-14 for all 10 passes.)

15. T1 & T3 compare results.

For the open test, steps 5 & 11 shall be skipped, and all teams can witness all steps.

[Startz]

How many hits are required here for the test to be a success?

[William Smith]

When I took the test in Ldale the first time before i went into the office i checked the ground out side to see what I would feel there and it is similar to any other ground i have tested.

There are major attractions and blank or neutral spots so there shouldn't be a problem finding a suitable spot to test in any where down there.

I will do a test here, probably several as I need a suitable target plus check my two base lines to make sure here in Palm Bay I get a low number for the non target container and the highest number for the target when it is placed.
Should be a breeze.
...

Referring to the highlighted parts: That is not good enough, edge. The JREF will not approve an application with you saying things like this.

You will have to be absolutely sure that you can do your stuff down there. Indicating beforehand that you might settle on the best spot available if you do not find a perfect spot will very likely prompt the JREF to reject your proposal.

You will need to name a specific location, as in, for example: Fort Lauderdale, Poinciana Park just south of the JREF Office.

The more specific, the better.
For example: Near the bus station SE 3 a/SE 14 SA on SE 3rd Ave.



Edge, anyone: During the 2002 test, the noted average dowsing time for each of the ten cups was a whopping 8 1/2 minutes. That alone accounts for 85 minutes. And it does not include changing the cups, stepping away in the safety area, etc.

You will have to make sure you can do it in significantly less time. Or there simply will be no test at all.



I will refrain from pointing out that you are already contradicting yourself again by saying ...
I will do a test here, probably several as I need a suitable target plus check my two base lines to make sure here in Palm Bay I get a low number for the non target container and the highest number for the target when it is placed.
...

when you have said in your OP before the threads were merged that

...
10: The target can be any kind of metal, gold, iron, nickel, silver, as long as it is metal.
...

[edge]

Come on....Its not that complicated, just leave those parts to me, hell they can name the park the house what ever. I will find what I need in any park, house property as long as it’s out side.

I'm not sure how reasonable that is. That's 3 minutes per container including time to swap out the containers. Edge is that possible? I seem to remember in your test with SezMe it took longer as the day went on, is that correct?

Yes that's about right. you could say four. it took about 40 minutes or so ...max.
Now you guys are thinking.

I got the material for the tripod tonight.

[EHocking]

How many hits are required here for the test to be a success?I posted earlier (http://forums.randi.org/showpost.php?p=4950230&postcount=1519)on his original protocol attempt (my bolding)

10 passes of 5 containers (i.e. 50 in total) would require a success rate of 8 to beat odds of 1:10,000.

ETA. I see from post 4 from JREF in the original Challenge thread that the odds given to beat for edge are indeed 1:10,000.

"A positive result for the preliminary test will be identifying the target substance (of either gold or silver) correctly in seven out of the ten sets of ten."

[William Smith]

Come on....Its not that complicated, just leave those parts to me, hell they can name the park the house what ever. I will find what I need in any park, house property as long as it’s out side.

Great. This provides you with a perfect out. Let me phrase it for you:

"They would not let me pick the place. They insisted on [insert location], but I could not find a suitable spot there so I had to make do with what they gave me and that's why I failed."

No, edge. You know you have to pick the location or else the JREF will not accept your protocol, given the previous experience with you, your test and your forum history.

If you can not be more specific, I see no reason for the JREF to accept your protocol proposal along with your application. (Academic affidavit pending, of course.)

Yes that's about right. you could say four. it took about 40 minutes or so ...max.
...

Can you put that in a definite time frame for your entire proposed protocol? Something like this:

"My preliminary test will run a maximum of ___ minutes. I have done this before and I am able to do it under controlled conditions."

[Startz]

I posted earlier (http://forums.randi.org/showpost.php?p=4950230&postcount=1519)on his original protocol attempt (my bolding)

10 passes of 5 containers (i.e. 50 in total) would require a success rate of 8 to beat odds of 1:10,000.

ETA. I see from post 4 from JREF in the original Challenge thread that the odds given to beat for edge are indeed 1:10,000.

"A positive result for the preliminary test will be identifying the target substance (of either gold or silver) correctly in seven out of the ten sets of ten."

Sorry I missed the earlier post. Perhaps Edge might tell us whether what fraction of the time he dowses correctly. If it works all the time, then the number of trials might be reduced to save time.

[EHocking]

Sorry I missed the earlier post.[\quote]Easy to miss. I didn't mean to sound like I was berating you.[quote] Perhaps Edge might tell us whether what fraction of the time he dowses correctly. If it works all the time, then the number of trials might be reduced to save time.The two problems Mike has is his inability to agree a location and the time needed for the protocol he's insisting on. A smaller number of test targets should at least address the second issue.

[William Smith]

Sorry I missed the earlier post. Perhaps Edge might tell us whether what fraction of the time he dowses correctly. If it works all the time, then the number of trials might be reduced to save time.

We have been at this point before at least two more times during edge's odyssey to another controlled test.

When the proposed test duration was a sensible two to three hours, edge started claiming he couldn't do it at the proposed success rate and hence needed more trials.

You can see easily edge's inability or unwillingness to stick to a fixed proposal in the last couple of dozen posts:

1. The target can be any metal became I have to find a suitable target.

2. Any area outside became pretty much any area outside.

[CynicalSkeptic]

Come on....Its not that complicated, just leave those parts to me...

The protocol has to be nailed down 100% absolute before the test, JREF won't let anything just be left up to you (or them).

[William Smith]

Edited for topic - moderated thread

All it takes for you to get your application on track is to check the following list - and since you said an application would not make sense before you had a protocol, we're doing this your way. Call it an extended hand if you will.

1. Name a specific test location. Get a permit, if needed.
Example: "I will do the test in Fort Lauderdale, Poinciana Park."

2. Name a specific target.
Example: "I will dowse for one piece of silver of one ounce. The silver will be hidden in a coffee mug."

3. Clearly state the number of trials and the expected test duration based on your self-tests.
Example: "I will do twenty passes of the target. Target can be either the silver or a dummy of exactly the same weight."

Example: "Not more than ten minutes per pass. A break of up to 30 minutes after ten passes, if needed. Total maximum test duration: 20 x 10 minutes plus 20 x 5 minutes for changing the target plus 30 minutes break time = 330 minutes or five and a half hours."

Example: "Before each pass, a six-sided die will be rolled to determine what will be put in the coffee mug. Odd numbers will mean the dummy, even numbers the silver."

4. Tell us what will mean a successful test.
Example: "If I get 15 or less correct the test will be called a failure. If I get 16 or more correct, the test will be called successful."

5. Make sure you have a written academic support.
Example: "I, [the undersigned], have witnessed a demonstration of the claimed ability by Mr. Mike Guska and I can offer no rational explanation for it."

Come on. You can do this.

[edge]

James knows I can dowse and has film on U-Tube stating so and a couple of other blurbs as Tricky says in News Week not to mention SezMes’ test.

If that’s a stickler for the test then that may take a little time.

I haven't dowsed since I left California that's been about 10 months ago.

How ever I have made a tripod and tested the theory in my yard and it took only a few minutes to set up and test.
I need a wider spread in my base line numbers for target and non-target comparison.

I will have to go the Ldale first to find a spot, I am not ready yet till I get a suitable target.
I am working on that, it all hinges on that, I don't want to use the silver tray because of size and I am sure that JREF would want to do this later when the weather cools down a bit.

So these two points I need to get before I send it in and I need to make sure I can actually do this and it all takes time, because if I send it in I will be sure I can do this, I am not going to fail again.

1. Name a specific test location. Get a permit, if needed.
Example: "I will do the test in Fort Lauderdale, Poinciana Park."

2. Name a specific target.
Example: "I will dowse for one piece of silver of one ounce.


I doubt that I will need a permit but I might have to reserve a spot.

I'm sure James would go for it, for another chance to trash me.

[CynicalSkeptic]

I will have to go the Ldale first to find a spot, I am not ready yet till I get a suitable target.
Fair enough. I'm actually glad that you're working to narrow down your target and also nail down the exact location.

I am working on that, it all hinges on that, I don't want to use the silver tray because of size and I am sure that JREF would want to do this later when the weather cools down a bit.
Don't worry about the weather. I'm sure it'll take a while to finalize the protocol negotiations. Might was well start as soon as possible.

--Of course now I'm anticipating that the whether will have in affect. He'll do his tests in the summer, and when he tries to take the test in January or February, it's not gonna work because of the change in conditions.

[Paulhoff]

James knows I can dowse and has film on U-Tube stating so and a couple of other blurbs as Tricky says in News Week not to mention SezMes’ test.
James who? Not James Randi.

Paul

:) :) :)

[William Smith]

James knows I can dowse and has film on U-Tube stating so and a couple of other blurbs as Tricky says in News Week not to mention SezMes’ test.

If that’s a stickler for the test then that may take a little time.

The stickler is the academic support. You will need it or your application won't be accepted - barring decision by the JREF.

I haven't dowsed since I left California that's been about 10 months ago.

How ever I have made a tripod and tested the theory in my yard and it took only a few minutes to set up and test.
I need a wider spread in my base line numbers for target and non-target comparison.

I will have to go the Ldale first to find a spot, I am not ready yet till I get a suitable target.
I am working on that, it all hinges on that, I don't want to use the silver tray because of size and I am sure that JREF would want to do this later when the weather cools down a bit.

So these two points I need to get before I send it in and I need to make sure I can actually do this and it all takes time, because if I send it in I will be sure I can do this, I am not going to fail again.

I doubt that I will need a permit but I might have to reserve a spot.
...

I think it's great that you intend to self-test thoroughly.

I also think that you are contradicting yourself again because you said earlier that you could dowse for any metal in any outside location.

...

6: I pick the spot to test at in a park near their office for their convenience..
...
10: The target can be any kind of metal, gold, iron, nickel, silver, as long as it is metal.
...