New Osama conspiracy theory

[EvilYeti]

This thought occured to me while watching Politically Incorrect last night. Bill Mahr was making the point that we spend the same in a week on operations in Iraq that we spend in a year in Afghanistan, where the top AlQueda power structure is based.

Much was made of the recent "Terror Summit" and that reporters had been able to find out from locals some information of BinLadins whereabouts.

Mr. Mahr questioned why more isn't being done to find Osama. It seems a logical question, no? He's the head of AlQueda, not Saddam.

Here's my theory. He's already been found. The administration knows where he is and is keeping tabs on him. Maybe via an informant, sat. surveillence, anything.

They are going to wait until the end of the current term and watch the polls and approval ratings. If the race is close or Bush is behind, they pull the trigger and "OSAMA CAPTURED" is the headline on every paper in the country. That should capture enough of the swing voters to ensure a victory.

Even if it's discovered that his whereabouts were known all along, the Administration could claim that in the interest of national security it was not prudent to act earlier.

The only problem with my theory is its obvious most of the administration would have trouble following the plot of a typical Tom Clancy novel, let alone think one up! :D

[Hexxenhammer]

Thanks, now I won't be able to sleep.

[Aoidoi]

Like most good conspiracy theories, the problem arises that there seems to be far more danger in proceeding as per the conspiracy than just doing the obvious. If ObL escapes and they it's found out they were waiting to bag him then it pretty much destroys Bush's reelection chance. If somebody else bags him while we're sitting on our thumbs we look like chumps. If the arabic press finds out we could have grabbed him at any time then they spin it that we're completely untrustworthy and nobody should ever listen to us (well, I suppose that's no change... :D) Seems like waiting on bagging him risks looking foolish whereas grabbing him immediately would allow for a media circus lasting up through the next election anyway.

Of course, I could be wrong. :)

Got a guy at work who thinks that they've (the CIA or some other unnamed TLA) already got ObL and are pumping him for info on the rest of his network. Might be justifiable from an intelligence perspective, but the political fallout from revealing "oh, btw, we've had Osama for the last year and a half, don't worry about all those anti-terrorism laws we've been shoving through Congress partially due to the continued fear of this guy." And I'd like to think that a transparant publicity stunt near election time would backfire ("HA! You were arrested for drunk driving 30 years ago!" springs to mind.)

Besides; obviously, the aliens have abducted ObL to improve their anal probing and cattle mutilating abilities ;)

[EvilYeti]

Originally posted by Aoidoi
Like most good conspiracy theories, the problem arises that there seems to be far more danger in proceeding as per the conspiracy than just doing the obvious. If ObL escapes and they it's found out they were waiting to bag him then it pretty much destroys Bush's reelection chance.

Of course, I could be wrong. :)



You are neglecting the fact that if Osama is somewhere its difficult to get into, its just as difficult to get out of. If we know where he is in those mountains, he might as well be in prison. He ain't going nowhere.

I'm going to predict if he is ever "found", its right around election time and Dubya's behind in the polls. This is one case where a BinLadin in the hand isn't worth two for the Bush!

[Aoidoi]

Originally posted by EvilYeti
You are neglecting the fact that if Osama is somewhere its difficult to get into, its just as difficult to get out of. If we know where he is in those mountains, he might as well be in prison. He ain't going nowhere.I dunno, they seemed to move pretty well through the mountains of Afghanistan. As it's all hypothetical it's kind of a silly argument to have, though. :D

I'm going to predict if he is ever "found", its right around election time and Dubya's behind in the polls. This is one case where a BinLadin in the hand isn't worth two for the Bush! I dunno, I strongly suspect "I caught the mastermind behind 9-11" would still play pretty strong a year from now. A grandstanding early November "gee, lookie what we found" seems a bit over the top to me.

For what it's worth (= "nothing"), my prediction is that he's buried in some cave we bombed the hell out of, but will be showing up alongside Elvis in southern gas stations for the foreseeable future. ;)

[corplinx]

Typical Bill Maher, has all the insight of a bent spoon. Military personnel are not needed to find Bin Laden. That is the work of intel. Military personnel were used to topple the regime that was sheltering Bin Laden. The manpower still in Afghanistan is more than enough to handle taliban remnants. Bin Laden won't be found be dumping troops all over Afghanistan. Troops are for killing.

[EvilYeti]

Originally posted by Aoidoi

I dunno, I strongly suspect "I caught the mastermind behind 9-11" would still play pretty strong a year from now. A grandstanding early November "gee, lookie what we found" seems a bit over the top to me.


You are overestimating the American public. Remember how popular Dubya was after we steamrollered Iraq? He ain't so popular now, and Iraq is still steamrollered (and starting to smell bad to boot).