Seeking Rational Info on 2012

[PAC]

The memory of Y2K fanatics still leaves me cold. But I was prepared with rational arguments. Now I am confronted with the 2012 er's and have not yet read much of the rational thought on these upcoming events. I am looking for sources of intelligent thought on the series of 2012 events.
Any suggestions where to begin my research?

[Darat]

Er what "2012 events" are you talking about?

[PAC]

Er what "2012 events" are you talking about?


The coming apocalypse based on the supposed meaning of the Mayan calendar and some alignment of planets, galaxies, etc. The books are coming out and the hysteria has begun. Unfortunately I have to spend time with
some fundamentalists who will want to discuss this until the end of 2012.

[Darat]

So it's not one thing? If so you'll probably need to come up with some specific claims that you'd like information about.

[Darat]

Perhaps this SkepicWiki article will be helpful: http://www.skepticwiki.org/index.php/21_December_2012 ?

[PAC]

So it's not one thing? If so you'll probably need to come up with some specific claims that you'd like information about.

Let's start with then end date of the Mayan calendar, December 2012, being interpreted as the Mayan's predicting the end of times. Is this correct or is it
twisting of the Mayan culture?

[Darat]

See the article I've just linked to but from memory (so sorry you'll have to look it up if you want supporting evidence): The Mayan calendar doesn't end at 2012, it's just the end of one "long cycle".

[GT/CS]

The only real event that I know of for 2012 is that the earth passes through the equator of the galaxie, for lack of a better description. No one knows what will happen when this occurs. Some believe that our poles will flip and the result of that will be total environmental havoc.

It's amazing that the Mayans figured out the timing of this event.

[fuelair]

Basically - just like several other allignments of the past one or two dozen years - it is a huge crock of feces marinated in ripe urine. Or to put it more politely, it is a flipping load.

[GT/CS]

Basically - just like several other allignments of the past one or two dozen years - it is a huge crock of feces marinated in ripe urine. Or to put it more politely, it is a flipping load.

Are you always this uncivil and rude or is this disgraceful behavior just the result of having a bad day?

[lionking]

The only real event that I know of for 2012 is that the earth passes through the equator of the galaxie, for lack of a better description. No one knows what will happen when this occurs. Some believe that our poles will flip and the result of that will be total environmental havoc.

It's amazing that the Mayans figured out the timing of this event.
I take it you are serious as I do not see any smiley face. Have a look at darat's wiki link please. Also, what fuelair said.

[GT/CS]

I take it you are serious as I do not see any smiley face. Have a look at darat's wiki link please. Also, what fuelair said.


What Fuelair said was just rude.

I am not a believer in the whole end-of-the-world 2012 thing but as far as I know there will be a major alignment in that year, and that is the only thing that happens that year that may be real and could possibly cause any sort of disruption. For that reason I posted it in response to the OP.

Now, if I were a believer and was presented with fuelair's response I'd think he or she is just a childish name-caller with no facts or debating skills, and would assume he or she was typical of all JREFrs. We both know that he or she is the exception instead of the rule but rude is rude.

I would love to find out more about the alignment because I can't see how such an event could wreak havoc on the earth. All the sites I've seen have been pro-destruction so any debunking links you can provide would be greatly appreciated. PAC would probably appreciate it, too.

Thank you

[lionking]

Please read Darat's link.

[GT/CS]

Here is link 3 from Darat's Wiki link

http://edj.net/mc2012/truezone.htm

And a quote from that link:

If, for reasons of explanatory simplicity, we state that the alignment zone is 1998 +/- 18 years, (because the sun is half a degree wide and 1/2 a degree of precessional shifts is 36 years), we achieve a realistic and fair appraisal of the process, yielding an alignment zone of 1980 - 2016. It is my hope that this will lend clarity to the discussion, as intellectually dishonest critics are likely to misinterpret contexts, parameters, and meanings in order to subvert the thesis.

What is it you want me to review in particular? If you have a point to make please make it. Again, I don't believe it the 2012 thing so just say whatever it is you want to say, other than nonsense like, to quote fuelair, "...it is a huge crock of feces marinated in ripe urine. Or to put it more politely, it is a flipping load."

[catbasket]

But fuelair was correct ... and polite.

I think you'll find the "intellectually dishonest critics" John Major Jenkins refers to may well be the people who claim that the world ends in 2012 because of the Mayan calendar.

Here's another quote from JMJ's article -
... the alignment the Maya were trying to indicate with their 2012 end-date ...

Emphasis mine.

[lionking]

Clearly, the "alignment window" needs to incorporate the entire process, including the solstice sun's closest approach to the Galactic Center (in 2219). This is roughly 208 years, or two Venus Rounds, after 2012! And so long-range prognosticators may look to the year 2220 for other astronomical/astrological phenomenon.



From the same link. Anyone can cherry pick. You raised the possibility of pole shift. Fuelair's assessment of this possibility is accurate.

[GT/CS]

But fuelair was correct ... and polite.

I think you'll find the "intellectually dishonest critics" John Major Jenkins refers to may well be the people who claim that the world ends in 2012 because of the Mayan calendar.

Here's another quote from JMJ's article -


Emphasis mine.

I completely agree that the 1st part of his post was correct. But how is the 2nd part either correct or polite. "...it is a huge crock of feces marinated in ripe urine. Or to put it more politely, it is a flipping load."

Yes, I understand how trivial, and off-topic, this whole discussion is but there have recently been posts on "Forum Management" stating how rude many members are on this web-site and when I read fuel's reply it dawned on me that the people complaining about such behavior may actually have a leg to stand on.

I hate to think that JREF is earning such a reputation. We need to be the adults. Being technically correct does not overrule civility.

[GT/CS]

Clearly, the "alignment window" needs to incorporate the entire process, including the solstice sun's closest approach to the Galactic Center (in 2219). This is roughly 208 years, or two Venus Rounds, after 2012! And so long-range prognosticators may look to the year 2220 for other astronomical/astrological phenomenon.



From the same link. Anyone can cherry pick. You raised the possibility of pole shift. Fuelair's assessment of this possibility is accurate.

I certainly didn't mean to cherry pick. I honestly took the paragraph I posted as the author's final summary. I am more than happy using your paragraph rather than the one I posted because, again, I DON'T BELIEVE IN THE 2012 STUFF.

Lionking, what about Darat's Wiki page do you want me to review? I've read the page and most of the links and I agree with Darat.

If you want to talk about pole shifting we can talk about that. There is evidence that suggests the poles have shifted in the past. Some say the shifts were rapid and others say they took a long time. No one knows what will happen if and when they shift again but there are a lot of theories. From what I understand the North pole moves 10km to 40km per year. Does that mean it's shifting? I don't know, but at 40km per year it will certainly take a long time to travel 12,000 miles. That is all I know about pole shifts and 2012.

[lionking]

I completely agree that the 1st part of his post was correct. But how is the 2nd part either correct or polite. "...it is a huge crock of feces marinated in ripe urine. Or to put it more politely, it is a flipping load."

Yes, I understand how trivial, and off-topic, this whole discussion is but there have recently been posts on "Forum Management" stating how rude many members are on this web-site and when I read fuel's reply it dawned on me that the people complaining about such behavior may actually have a leg to stand on.

I hate to think that JREF is earning such a reputation. We need to be the adults. Being technically correct does not overrule civility.
Hang on, to whom was fuelair being rude? He was criticising an idea! The words he used are within the forum rules.

[GT/CS]

Hang on, to whom was fuelair being rude? He was criticising an idea! The words he used are within the forum rules.

Ha, ha. Is that what we're arguing about? Now I understand why we're missing each other.

Yes, you are correct that he is not being rude to any particular person, but IMO he is discouraging debate on the subject with his graphic description of what he thinks of the issue, and therefore, those who believe in it.

I'm sorry if my misunderstanding of your stance created unnecessary confusion and stress.

[lionking]

I'm hardly under stress. Debate away. Like fuelair, I am departing.

[catbasket]

There is evidence that suggests the poles have shifted in the past.

Do you mean magnetic poles? Or that the earth will "flip" and the new poles will be (say) UK and Australia. I read a science fiction novel about that once, something to do with unbalanced ice caps. I don't believe it has any basis in fact, but I'm open to evidence.

[DoubtingStephen]

So with the world ending in 2012 should I be stocking up on survivalist merchandise, NRA approved firearms, and extra copies of the Bible to give to our new transdimensional galactic equatorial overlords?

Or am I supposed to sell all of my worldly goods and give the proceeds to a galactic crossover Kool-Aid death cult?

There's hardly any use in an end of the world scenario unless somebody is hauling in the cash.

[GT/CS]

Do you mean magnetic poles? Or that the earth will "flip" and the new poles will be (say) UK and Australia. I read a science fiction novel about that once, something to do with unbalanced ice caps. I don't believe it has any basis in fact, but I'm open to evidence.

Magnetic poles.

[fuelair]

Are you always this uncivil and rude or is this disgraceful behavior just the result of having a bad day?
When it comes to pure scientific ignorance (Velikovsky, the idiot with the three big planets alligned in the 70's. etc. ) yes - and the disgrace is on those who don't learn how the universe operates - including the actual effects of gravity and gravitational systems so they will not present the idiot ideas as possible without researching it some on their own. I will apologize if the world is destroyed in 2012 - until then I will respond accurately to the drivel. And actually - as pretty much usual - my day has gone quite well:)!!

[catbasket]

GT/CS - Thanks for the clarification.

No one knows what will happen if and when they shift again but there are a lot of theories.

The Snow Theory - my brother-in-law's homing pigeons might get lost. ;)

[fuelair]

And, of course the poles have flipped in the past - though it could happen right now and there would be no noticeable effect on us except the compass thing. We know when through core samples of the material slowly oozing out and cooling along the mid-ocean ridges - the particles of iron or other magnetic materials solidify with those particles oriented according tothe field when they harden and then can no longer switch orientation.

[GT/CS]

And, of course the poles have flipped in the past - though it could happen right now and there would be no noticeable effect on us except the compass thing. We know when through core samples of the material slowly oozing out and cooling along the mid-ocean ridges - the particles of iron or other magnetic materials solidify with those particles oriented according tothe field when they harden and then can no longer switch orientation.

Agreed. Pole shifting probably isn't anything to worry about. Now Yellowstone on the other hand.......

[Showmeproof]

The government claims that during the "Montauk Project" they had psychics that could not see passed 2012. In conclusion, the world comes to an end in 2012!

[GT/CS]

The government claims that during the "Montauk Project" they had psychics that could not see passed 2012. In conclusion, the world comes to an end in 2012!

Did the psychics say how the world would end?

[fuelair]

[QUOTE=GT/CS;3121914]Did the psychics say how the world would end?[/QUOTE/]

Slyvias Browne expands to block out the sun, plunging us into Pukelear winter and the meat- death of the universe.

[Showmeproof]

Um, I did not delve into the research hard enough to know this. I just kind of stumbled upon this piece of knowledge.

[Arkan_Wolfshade]

<geekmode>
I'd be more worried about 2038.
</geekmode>

[Wolverine]

Let's start with then end date of the Mayan calendar, December 2012, being interpreted as the Mayan's predicting the end of times. Is this correct or is it twisting of the Mayan culture?

Twisting, to say the least. As Darat noted, the calendar does not "end" on December 21, 2012 (any more than ours "ends" on December 31st) -- it simply rolls over. This page (http://www.wundermoosen.com/WunderMoosenWeb-mayan-calendar-article.aspx) examines the Mayan Calendar rather thoroughly. Claims of doomsday scenarios, catastrophes, and other eschatological nonsense you're commonly seeing have been manufactured via new-age silliness (http://www.skepdic.com/maya.html).

The only real event that I know of for 2012 is that the earth passes through the equator of the galaxie, for lack of a better description.

Our solar system is currently light years above the galactic equator (i.e. above the disk in the direction of the galactic north pole), and we'll not be crossing that plane in 2012. The lowest such estimate I can find is roughly 20 LY (which is probably based upon older models). Regardless, it's a distance we certainly won't be covering in the next five years.

Perhaps you instead meant this (http://curious.astro.cornell.edu/question.php?number=686)? From our perspective (key phrase), the Sun appears to cross the galactic equator in both June and December on each solstice. We haven't suffered from that already, and nothing suggests we shall (http://www.astronomy.com/asy/default.aspx?c=a&id=6140) in 2012.

No one knows what will happen when this occurs. Some believe that our poles will flip and the result of that will be total environmental havoc.

That's a shame, too; such beliefs are quite misguided.

It's amazing that the Mayans figured out the timing of this event.

How did you conclude the Maya predicted any such thing?

I would love to find out more about the alignment because I can't see how such an event could wreak havoc on the earth.

It hasn't, and doesn't. Astrologers and certain woo peddlers still associate the "alignments" of celestial bodies and disasters (earthquakes, etc). Here's an example (http://www.badastronomy.com/bad/misc/planets.html) from a similar non-event in 2000. (And, this page (http://www.etsu.edu/physics/etsuobs/starprty/22099dgl/planalign.htm) offers more visual aids.)

And a quote from that link:

If, for reasons of explanatory simplicity, we state that the alignment zone is 1998 +/- 18 years... [snip]

Since the OP is seeking rational information concerning the 2012 non-event, may I respectfully suggest we bypass folks like John Major Jenkins entirely? The SkepticWiki page posted above links to a rather comprehensive analysis of common 2012 claims (http://www.astro.uu.nl/~strous/AA/en/2012.html), authored by someone with actual astronomical experience (Dr. Louis Strous). A run-down from a scientific perspective is much more beneficial.

If you want to talk about pole shifting we can talk about that. There is evidence that suggests the poles have shifted in the past. Some say the shifts were rapid and others say they took a long time. No one knows what will happen if and when they shift again but there are a lot of theories. From what I understand the North pole moves 10km to 40km per year. Does that mean it's shifting? I don't know, but at 40km per year it will certainly take a long time to travel 12,000 miles. That is all I know about pole shifts and 2012.

This might be of further assistance (http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/29dec_magneticfield.html). The process takes thousands of years, and can be modeled with an admirable degree of confidence.

Some doomsday-mongers aren't claiming a mere magnetic polar reversal, though. You can find numerous pages like this (http://survive2012.com/geryl1.php) stating that, among other silly things...:

In 2012 the next polar reversal will take place on earth. This means that the North Pole will be changed into the South Pole. Scientifically this can only be explained by the fact that the earth will start rotating in the opposite direction, together with a huge disaster of unknown proportions.

Yeehaw, that sounds eerily familiar (http://www.zetatalk.com/poleshft/p21.htm). In reality however, the Earth is not some cosmic billiard ball which eagerly accepts the application of "english". This stuff is pure fantasy.

It's going to become increasingly tedious watching 2012 claims bandied about over the next five years.

[GT/CS]

Our solar system is currently light years above the galactic equator (toward the galactic north pole), and we'll not be crossing that plane in 2012. The lowest such estimate I can find is roughly 20 LY (which is probably based upon older models). Regardless, it's a distance we certainly won't be covering in the next five years.



That's interesting. I understood the rationale behind the pole flip idea to be that the earth will soon pass through our solar system's equater instead of our system passing through the galactic equater. Do you know if that theory is being tossed about or have I misunderstood the whole thing?

ETA: Sorry, I should have used "solar system" instead of "galaxy" when I made this post; "The only real event that I know of for 2012 is that the earth passes through the equator of the galaxie, for lack of a better description."

[Trakar]

The only real event that I know of for 2012 is that the earth passes through the equator of the galaxie, for lack of a better description. No one knows what will happen when this occurs. Some believe that our poles will flip and the result of that will be total environmental havoc.

It's amazing that the Mayans figured out the timing of this event.

I have a good university astronomy link for a discussion on this, but can't post it until I've made a few more posts.
If you are interested, I will try to give the link in a manner that avoids this restriction.

It is from the Sterrekundig Instituut Utrecht, which is located at: world wide web dot astro dot uu dot nl backslash ~strous backslash AA backslash en backslash 2012 dot hypertextmarkuplanguage

Good luck!

[bokonon]

So with the world ending in 2012 should I be stocking up on survivalist merchandise, NRA approved firearms, and extra copies of the Bible to give to our new transdimensional galactic equatorial overlords?

That would seem to be the good news about predicting the end of the world, rather than a Y2K event -- stocking up is pointless, unless you're stocking up on all those experiences you want to make sure you experience before the end.

The big things to worry about would seem to be the sociopaths who might want to take advantage of the fact that a life sentence just means "until next Monday," to get a leg up on Karma, and the Heaven's Gate messiahs who will promise to help the spirits of the credulous escape before the end comes.

[Freethinker]

A co-worker brought this up some time back, and I countered him with this:

I, Joe Blow, hereby convey all of my wordly possessions, including my home at 1234 Any Street, Mytown USA, any automobiles, savings accounts, stocks, bonds or other instruments of value, to be effective at noon on the 1st day of June, 2015, in exchange for a payment of $5,000 in cash on 5 November, 2007

Signed: _________________
Gullible Coworker



I then told him that only a fool would turn down $5000 in cash for absolutely nothing. Suddenly he didn't believe it so much.:p

[Wolverine]

That's interesting. I understood the rationale behind the pole flip idea to be that the earth will soon pass through our solar system's equater instead of our system passing through the galactic equater. Do you know if that theory is being tossed about or have I misunderstood the whole thing?

I'm thinking you've misunderstood something along the way. Either that or I'm misunderstanding what you're attempting to convey. Let me know if that's the case.

When you say "equator", I'm guessing you mean the ecliptic (the plane in which the planets orbit the Sun)? Our orbital path around the Sun is our frame of reference, the benchmark, so to speak. We measure and compare the orbits and inclinations of the rest of the neighboring planets in relation to our own (http://www.solstation.com/orbits/solarsys.htm) (and they follow ours within a couple of degrees). So, Earth's orbital plane defines the ecliptic. From our point of reference, there is no "passing through" it.

It doesn't follow that planetary magnetic fields reverse polarity based on their inclination to the ecliptic. It seems to me that the pole-reversal advocates (example (http://www.polereversal.com/)) largely try to shoehorn the Sun's magnetic polar reversals into their 2012 catastrophe schemes solely based on correlation (http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2001/ast15feb_1.htm). There are entirely different mechanisms at work, though, so this too would be pretty silly. The wacky "pole shift" page I posted previously advocates a completely different causal mechanism (http://survive2012.com/geryl1.php)... "solar lightning causes the polar reversal... [it] strikes our planet and causes a gigantic short circuit". :rolleyes: Whee... that's some Grade A codswallop.

[Wolverine]

I have a good university astronomy link for a discussion on this, but can't post it until I've made a few more posts.

I'd already linked it above in #34, but for the sake of convenience, here it is again (http://www.astro.uu.nl/~strous/AA/en/2012.html).

[Hokulele]

I have a good university astronomy link for a discussion on this, but can't post it until I've made a few more posts.
If you are interested, I will try to give the link in a manner that avoids this restriction.

It is from the Sterrekundig Instituut Utrecht, which is located at: world wide web dot astro dot uu dot nl backslash ~strous backslash AA backslash en backslash 2012 dot hypertextmarkuplanguage

Good luck!


Here's the link.

http://www.astro.uu.nl/~strous/AA/en/2012.html

ETA: Wolverine was on top of it, but I guess it can't hurt to display again.

[GT/CS]

This thread from badstronomy articulates the theory as I've heard it.

"The claim is that in December 2012, the sun, earth, and galactic center will all form a straight line"


My knowledge of astronomy probably matches that of most Amercians in that I know the big white thing is the moon and it revolves around the earth, which revolves around the bigger bright thing, and all that is part of the Milky Way, which is plate-shaped.

So, if you don't mind educating this ignorant fool, let's get the basics out of the way so we can learn to explain this to all other ignorant fools who will ask the same ignorant questions at a more fevered rate as we get closer to 2012.

1. Is it true that some time on or around 2012 the sun and earth will line up with the galactic center?

2. Does "galactic center" mean the center of the Milky Way or center of our solar system?

3. If #1 is true how often does this alignment occur?

4. Do we know why the magnetic north pole wanders around the earth?

5. Is there even the slightest possibility that the position of the magnetic poles could be related to where the earth sits in realation to the center of the Milky Way? In other words, is there some known force that orients North up and South down?

6. Have the magnetic poles swapped ends in the past? If so why?

Thanks for any answers or links you can provide.

ETA: From the link you provided. "The Milky Way has no clear central line either, so there is uncertainty about when the solstitial point crosses that central line. Different groups of people can each use reasonable definitions for the central line that yet deviate from one another. If we estimate (for example) that the uncertainty about the "best" central line of the Milky Way is half a degree (which is only a small fraction of the width of the Milky Way), then the corresponding uncertainty in the date at which the solstitial point crosses the central line is 0.5°/360°*26000 = about 36 years.

The conjunction of the southern solstitial point and the Milky Way is therefore quite rare (it happens only once each about 13,000 years) but also lasts many years.

If you accept the central line that the IAU has defined for the Milky Way (see question 480), then (based on some experimenting with planetarium program Redshift 5) the southern solstitial point crossed the central line of the Milky Way already back in 1999." Is this what we are talking about?

[Earthborn]

2. Does "galactic center" mean the center of the Milky Way or center of our solar system?That of the galaxy we call Milky Way.

4. Do we know why the magnetic north pole wanders around the earth?
6. Have the magnetic poles swapped ends in the past? If so why?Scientists have a pretty good idea, which can be modelled physically. The Earth's magnetic field is likely caused by spinning hot fluid metal in the Earth's core. That causes a magnetic field that is fragile and sometimes chaotic, and can flip once in a while. Geomagnetic reversal

"Earth investigated" on National Geographic once showed an amazingly cool physical experiment that modelled this theory with a fast spinning ball filled with molten sodium. It produced a magnetic field that behaves very much like that of the Earth, only its flips happen a lot faster.

5. Is there even the slightest possibility that the position of the magnetic poles could be related to where the earth sits in realation to the center of the Milky Way? In other words, is there some known force that orients North up and South down?No, there is no known force coming from the center of the Milky Way that can do that. If there was, it is rather unlikely that geomagnetic reversals would have happened as often as they happened.

[Trakar]

I'd already linked it above in #34, but for the sake of convenience, here it is again (http://www.astro.uu.nl/~strous/AA/en/2012.html).

Ah, thank-you, and I apologize for the redundant repetitiveness of my posting, but on the upside, I now have accumulated enough posts to present my own links, so since this is a good link with a pretty thorough discussion of the issue at hand I guess it doesn't really hurt to keep offering it!


http://www.astro.uu.nl/~strous/AA/en/2012.html

:)

[GT/CS]

That of the galaxy we call Milky Way.


Scientists have a pretty good idea, which can be modelled physically. The Earth's magnetic field is likely caused by spinning hot fluid metal in the Earth's core. That causes a magnetic field that is fragile and sometimes chaotic, and can flip once in a while. Geomagnetic reversal

"Earth investigated" on National Geographic once showed an amazingly cool physical experiment that modelled this theory with a fast spinning ball filled with molten sodium. It produced a magnetic field that behaves very much like that of the Earth, only its flips happen a lot faster.

No, there is no known force coming from the center of the Milky Way that can do that. If there was, it is rather unlikely that geomagnetic reversals would have happened as often as they happened.

Thanks Earthborn, that helps.

Thinking outside the box here, and from ignorance, is it possible that as the earth passes through the center of the Milky Way the Milky Way's gravitational force pulls on the other side of earth, causing the flip?

[Earthborn]

Thinking outside the box here, and from ignorance, is it possible that as the earth passes through the center of the Milky Way the Milky Way's gravitational force pulls on the other side of earth, causing the flip?There is a supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way. Nobody knows exactly what happens to the Earth if it was sucked in a black hole, as our understanding of physics breaks down in black holes. But it whatever it is that happens, it doesn't involve coming out the other end, flipped or otherwise.

[GT/CS]

There is a supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way. Nobody knows exactly what happens to the Earth if it was sucked in a black hole, as our understanding of physics breaks down in black holes. But it whatever it is that happens, it doesn't involve coming out the other end, flipped or otherwise.

Sorry, a poor choice of words on my part. I didn't mean the center as in the center I meant as it passes through what I'll call the horizontal plane of the Milky Way.

My layperson's reasoning tells me that if there is a gravitational force exerted by this ambiguous plane of the Milky Way that force would be pulling generally towards one of the earth's poles, then after the earth passes through the plane it would pull more towards the other pole. If there is such a gravitational force could such an event possibly mess with the earth's molten layer and create a magnetic pole shift?

[nathan]

My layperson's reasoning tells me that if there is a gravitational force exerted by this ambiguous plane of the Milky Way that force would be pulling generally towards one of the earth's poles, then after the earth passes through the plane it would pull more towards the other pole. If there is such a gravitational force could such an event possibly mess with the earth's molten layer and create a magnetic pole shift?

In a word, 'no'. your idea is so off the wall, that I don't really know where to start explaining things. As someone once said 'it's so bad it's not even wrong' :)

One thing your hypothesis seems to rely on is that the gravitational mass of matter depends on whether magnetic field lines are coming out of it (a north pole) as opposed to whether they are going into it (a south pole). But magnetic flux forms closed loops, so doesn't really make sense.

[GT/CS]

In a word, 'no'. your idea is so off the wall, that I don't really know where to start explaining things. As someone once said 'it's so bad it's not even wrong' :)

One thing your hypothesis seems to rely on is that the gravitational mass of matter depends on whether magnetic field lines are coming out of it (a north pole) as opposed to whether they are going into it (a south pole). But magnetic flux forms closed loops, so doesn't really make sense.


I don't think my theory has nothing to do with the magnetic field going in or out.

Let's assume, just for giggles, that that the earth is above the plane of the Milky Way now and will be below it in the future.

Earthborn said, "The Earth's magnetic field is likely caused by spinning hot fluid metal in the Earth's core. That causes a magnetic field that is fragile and sometimes chaotic, and can flip once in a while. Geomagnetic reversal."

Using that theory and the fact that the moon pulls on the oceans of the earth I am asking if there is a gravitational force in the Milky Way that gets stronger as we get closer to the center of its plane. If there is such a force could it be gently pulling up on the spinning hot fluid in such a way that the resulting magnetism is what we now have? If the earth then passes below the plane will that same force then be pulling down on the fluid creating a gradual reversal in the magnetic poles?

I understand this might be insulting to someone with your advanced knowledge of astronomy but if we are going to debunk pole shifting, earth aligning, total destruction 2012 questions and theories we need to be able to explain why it won't happen to people with absolutely no astronomical knowlege (like me). Somehow I dont' think, "In a word, 'no'. your idea is so off the wall, that I don't really know where to start explaining things. As someone once said 'it's so bad it's not even wrong'", is going to cut it (even with a smilie face).

Thank you

[fuelair]

I don't think my theory has nothing to do with the magnetic field going in or out.

Let's assume, just for giggles, that that the earth is above the plane of the Milky Way now and will be below it in the future.

Earthborn said, "The Earth's magnetic field is likely caused by spinning hot fluid metal in the Earth's core. That causes a magnetic field that is fragile and sometimes chaotic, and can flip once in a while. Geomagnetic reversal."

Using that theory and the fact that the moon pulls on the oceans of the earth I am asking if there is a gravitational force in the Milky Way that gets stronger as we get closer to the center of its plane. If there is such a force could it be gently pulling up on the spinning hot fluid in such a way that the resulting magnetism is what we now have? If the earth then passes below the plane will that same force then be pulling down on the fluid creating a gradual reversal in the magnetic poles?

I understand this might be insulting to someone with your advanced knowledge of astronomy but if we are going to debunk pole shifting, earth aligning, total destruction 2012 questions and theories we need to be able to explain why it won't happen to people with absolutely no astronomical knowlege (like me). Somehow I dont' think, "In a word, 'no'. your idea is so off the wall, that I don't really know where to start explaining things. As someone once said 'it's so bad it's not even wrong'", is going to cut it (even with a smilie face).

Thank youHe is right about that though. If a person has no real concept of gravity other than "Earth turn around-why Uggh not fall off other side. Oh!!gravity hold Uggh down. Big good gravity!!" Then stuff like this can make sense "Earth change place get closer to BIG THING. BIG THING pull Earth - make Earth crush, go by-by!!! Uggh no-like!!!" In reality, unless you get closer to a large (much more massive) body/group of bodies - which you don't in any functional way crossing the elliptic, a meridian, a time-line, an equator etc. - there is no gravity effect going to harm us. Distance and the relative masses are what we concern ourselves with, not direction or angle (relative angle). It is not trying to be vicious, it is saying "you can't tell the players without a program!" The laws governing the motion of celestial objects and their relation to each other and the laws of physics are the players and education about them is the program. The full explanations are not simple (though oversimplification is often done - even in introductory courses) but they say "Not gonna happen - and where did you get an idea like that anyway?!!!"

[Fnord]

The only real event that I know of for 2012 is that the earth passes through the equator of the galaxie, for lack of a better description. No one knows what will happen when this occurs. Some believe that our poles will flip and the result of that will be total environmental havoc.

It's amazing that the Mayans figured out the timing of this event.


Did the mayans actually predict that the earth would pass through the equator of the galaxy, or does their calendar's "Grand Cycle" just happen to coincide with this astronomical event?

My vote: Coincidence, and nothing more.

[Fnord]

There is a supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way.


I thought it was nougat. I dun lernt sumpin new t'day!

[Michael Redman]

My layperson's reasoning tells me that if there is a gravitational force exerted by this ambiguous plane of the Milky Way . . . There isn't.

[DoubtingStephen]

I don't think my theory has nothing to do with the magnetic field going in or out.


I'm sure I don't fail to disagree.

[nathan]

I don't think my theory has nothing to do with the magnetic field going in or out.
yes it does. You're postulating that the gravitational attaction is somehow related to the direction of the magnetic field lines. If that's incorrect, then either you don't realize it, or I've misunderstood your theory.

Somehow I dont' think, "In a word, 'no'. your idea is so off the wall, that I don't really know where to start explaining things. As someone once said 'it's so bad it's not even wrong'", is going to cut it (even with a smilie face).
That's why I tried to show at least one place where your hypothesis seemed to be nonsensical.

Please clarify your hypothesis if you think that half of Earth has a greater gravitational attraction than the other half. Or could you show where else this gravitationally generated torque is coming from?

[dudalb]

Basically - just like several other allignments of the past one or two dozen years - it is a huge crock of feces marinated in ripe urine. Or to put it more politely, it is a flipping load.

Fuelair but speaks the truth.
He is not calling anybody names but giving an accurate description of the Mayan Calender/Polar Shift 2012 crapola.
BTW I expect a lot of 2012 hysteria as the year draws closer. The big time woo on this is just getting warmed up. Expect major outbreaks of stupidity and insanity.

[GT/CS]

My whole question was based on the assumption that there is some force, probably gravity, that will affect the earth differently after the earth passes through the plane. If there is no such force (thanks for that clarification Fuelair and Michael) the question has no value.

Fnord, it is probably coincidence but story is being spread as fact and the closer we get to 2012 the more it will be accepted as fact, especial when the MSM start in with it.

Again, thank you to everyone who offered input on this.

[GT/CS]

Fuelair but speaks the truth.
He is not calling anybody names but giving an accurate description of the Mayan Calender/Polar Shift 2012 crapola.
BTW I expect a lot of 2012 hysteria as the year draws closer. The big time woo on this is just getting warmed up. Expect major outbreaks of stupidity and insanity.

Dudalb, astronomy is such a complicated science that the 2012 nonsense will be easy to spread due to ignorance of the science. I'm sure I can bury you in some subjects and you'd rather your lack of understanding in those subjects be considered to be ignorance instead of stupidity and insanity, or crapola.

[Monza]

The coming apocalypse based on the supposed meaning of the Mayan calendar and some alignment of planets, galaxies, etc. ...


I'm not worried. Was it Hubble who discovered that galaxies are red-shifted? Anyway, all galaxies are moving away from each other at an incredible rate. So even if some of them line up, they are farther away from us than they have ever been. Thus, their effect should be reduced. I'll keep my plans for 2013 intact.

[JAStewart]

What.

How can people believe this? What significance does the calender hold? We are move advanced than Mayans.

[dudalb]

Dudalb, astronomy is such a complicated science that the 2012 nonsense will be easy to spread due to ignorance of the science. I'm sure I can bury you in some subjects and you'd rather your lack of understanding in those subjects be considered to be ignorance instead of stupidity and insanity, or crapola.


I was referring more to the Mayan Calender aspect of it,which is what is getting the lion's share of the MSM attention,rather then the astronomical aspect of it.
By Insanity I am convinced you will see some "Doomsday Cults" get going as 2012 draws closer.

[dudalb]

So with the world ending in 2012 should I be stocking up on survivalist merchandise, NRA approved firearms, and extra copies of the Bible to give to our new transdimensional galactic equatorial overlords?

Or am I supposed to sell all of my worldly goods and give the proceeds to a galactic crossover Kool-Aid death cult?

There's hardly any use in an end of the world scenario unless somebody is hauling in the cash.


In the words of Brains Gremlin:
"I am advising all my clients to invest in Canned Goods and Shotguns".

[GT/CS]

What.

How can people believe this? What significance does the calender hold? We are move advanced than Mayans.

Unfortunately almost as soon as someone figured out that the Mayan calendar ends in 2012 people started looking for other things that confirm the 2012 end of the world date. One guy even twisted enough facts to claim that the bible predicts how many popes there will be and the last one dies in 2012!

As dudalb stated it will just keep getting worse. My only prediction is that there will be a hell of a lot of partying going on December 20th, 2012. Is that on a weekend?

ETA: Here's a link to an "interesting" discussion about the pope thing.
http://perspectives.com/forums/view_topic.php?id=113880&forum_id=86

[ServiceSoon]

Other than the obvious (Money. I guess it isn't obvious if I have to spell it out) what is the point of determining when the world will end? There is no chance for I told you so's after the fact. Carpe diem!

It's amazing that the Mayans figured out the timing of this event.
All this before telescopes were invented. Many calendars are based on astrology. I am interested in how they created a calendar that has 5,000 plus days for one cycle when they only lived for an estimated 2500 years. To boot it is accurate representation within our understanding of how our planet interacts with the Milky Way.

[iMaGiNaTioN]

if the world ends, would we even know?

[nathan]

To boot it is accurate representation within our understanding of how our planet interacts with the Milky Way.

Accurate in what way? Does it include the 220 million year orbital period? (which seems to me to be one of the more significant Milky Way interactions)

[SomeGuy]

Dudalb, astronomy is such a complicated science that the 2012 nonsense will be easy to spread due to ignorance of the science. I'm sure I can bury you in some subjects and you'd rather your lack of understanding in those subjects be considered to be ignorance instead of stupidity and insanity, or crapola.

If people are going to make up thing based poorly on their poor and wrong understanding of something, we can at least call them stupid, and say it's crapola.

If someone is going to say something inane about something he doesn't understand he should rightfully be called stupid.

If you want to avoid that embarassement just don't comment on issues you don't understand.

It's a modern day disease that people in the western world (well maybe everywhere but I can't see it) think they are smart enough to understand anything and their opinions on anything are valid.

These kind of gravitational planes are a construction of your mind, you're not an astronomer, you're not even a very interested layman, HOW DARE YOU BE INDIGNANT if a real astronomer calls your idea stupid and so bad that it isn't even wrong.

[GT/CS]

If people are going to make up thing based poorly on their poor and wrong understanding of something, we can at least call them stupid, and say it's crapola.

If someone is going to say something inane about something he doesn't understand he should rightfully be called stupid.

If you want to avoid that embarassement just don't comment on issues you don't understand.

It's a modern day disease that people in the western world (well maybe everywhere but I can't see it) think they are smart enough to understand anything and their opinions on anything are valid.

These kind of gravitational planes are a construction of your mind, you're not an astronomer, you're not even a very interested layman, HOW DARE YOU BE INDIGNANT if a real astronomer calls your idea stupid and so bad that it isn't even wrong.

Wow!

How will people ever learn if they don't ask questions?

Thank you for your revealing response to my previous statement. It certainly told me everything I need to know about your place in a civilized society.

[sophia8]

All this before telescopes were invented. Many calendars are based on astrology. I am interested in how they created a calendar that has 5,000 plus days for one cycle when they only lived for an estimated 2500 years. To boot it is accurate representation within our understanding of how our planet interacts with the Milky Way.No, calenders are based on observable cycles - days, lunar months and solar years mostly. The Mayans also had calenders based on cycles of Venus - you don't need a telescope to be an astronomer.
How did they create a calender that lasted for longer than they existed? Exactly the same way that we created a calender that can theoretically measure from the beginnings of the Solar system to its ending - just counting up small cycles into larger cycles ad infinitum.
Here's a short explanation of the Mayan calender (http://www.astro.uu.nl/~strous/AA/en/antwoorden/historische_kalenders.html#maya)

[Citizen Deux]

The Mayans may (or may not) have their calendar ending in 2012. All of the interpretation of their calendars depends on a divisor to correct to modern time keeping. Much of our understanding of Mayan writings came from the codexes composed by Spanish Catholic priests collecting "histories" of the Maya in order to facilitate their assimilation and enslavement (I mean conversion).

John Major Jenkins, Carl Johann Calleman and others are extrapolating a modest understanding of mesoAmerican archaeostronomy to a convenient date. Any google of 2012 will reveal a wide variety of "events", some which started with claims of global transformation and are now much more tame in their proclamations.

Check out Bad Astronomy for more data on our place in the galaxy and its relevance to life on earth. For folks who posit a 2012 claim, I would simply take each argument they present and examine it rationally.

Number of end of times prophecies - too many too count.
Number of accurate end of times prophecies - 0.
Reminding the "faithful" on the 'day after' - priceless