Yellowstone National Park has started to "swell up"!

[Skeptic Guy]

I know that this doesn't mean that there is any danger of an imminent eruption, but I thought the article was interesting.

Based on the timing outlined in the article, Yellowstone is about "due" for an eruption...plus or minus a few tens of thousands of years, but it seems like it is not uncommon for Yellowstone (and other sites) to rise and fall over time.

Anyone have any expertise in volcanology and would care to comment?

http://edition.cnn.com/2007/TECH/science/11/08/yellowstone.rising.ap/index.html

[madurobob]

Just to be clear, this isn't new - its been reported quite a bit over the past couple of years. I believe this article is simply pointing out that the growth has now been confirmed for the 3rd straight year. The rate of growth YtY remains the same.

Discovery had a show about this a year or so ago and their estimates of the damage that could be caused by the violent eruption of the Yellowstone "super volcano" were pretty scary. But, the odds of it happening anytime soon were small.

[BrianSI]

Let's start a betting pool.

[BenBurch]

Some day it will all blow itself into dust. That's not woo, that's science.

And it COULD be tomorrow.

It also COULD be after "humans are legends in stories told by rabbits."

So I plan to not worry about this.

[madurobob]

Let's start a betting pool.

Hmmm.. what odds will you give me for on or before July 7th, 2043?

Cuz, I'll need a reason to party on my 80th birthday.

[Rolfe]

Here is the transcript of the 1999 Horizon programme (http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/1999/supervolcanoes_script.shtml) about this subject.

Rolfe.

[Mojo]

Yellowstone National Park has started to "swell up"!


Quick: send for a homoeopath!

[Fnord]

Rub some Vicks Vapo-Rub on the swelling and chant, “Sana sana colita de rana. Si no sanas hoy, sanarás mañana” repeatedly until the swelling goes down.

[latent aaaack]

Having just read Rolfe's horizon link and then the article I think CNN failed to impart some of the nuances of the story. So, how would one survive a 15 degree drop in summer temperate zone temps and the elimination of a few growing seasons? Could the people on the coasts subsist off of fish and canned food?

The volcano at Yellowstone produced massive eruptions 2 million, 1.3 million and 642,000 years ago, all larger than the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens.

[madurobob]

So, um, we don't really need to worry about global warming? Jellystone will take care of it for us?

Actually, thats pretty much the scenario Discovery outlined in their show. Doomsday-ish. But I think it falls into the same category of worry as a large comet hitting the earth: if it happens were screwed and there is nothing we can do about it, but the likelihood of it happening anytime soon is remote at best.

[Skeptic Guy]

I don't mean to suggest this is woo, nor do I plan on staying up nights. IF anything happens, it might happen in the next 100,000 years...or longer...or never.

I do believe I remember the Discovery show on it so I was aware that Yellowstone was sitting on a big ol' pile of steaming magma. I just thought it was an interesting story. I guess the only way anyone would get really worked up about it is if the ground swelling was accompanied by micro-earthquakes.

[madurobob]

Dang it, now I got that Jimmy Buffet song stuck in my head... "I don't know, I don't know, I don't know where I'ma gonna go when the volcano blows".

And haven't they recorded micro quakes already? Or maybe micro-micro quakes. I think I remember from the Discovery show that they have seismographs all around the caldera and they record small shifts fairly often. In fact, I thought I heard that they might be more worried if they stopped seeing seismic activity for a while as it could be an indication of pent up energy not being slowly bled off.

(I don't remember who "they" are. USGS?)

[Dan O.]

I guess the only way anyone would get really worked up about it is if the ground swelling was accompanied by micro-earthquakes.

http://www.seis.utah.edu/req2webdir/recenteqs/Maps/Yellowstone.html

[NoZed Avenger]

Yellowstone National Park has started to "swell up"!



I've just mailed over some ointment that . . .a friend . . . had for a similar problem.

[grayman]

When it swells up enough for me to see from my house, then I'll worry.

[Babylon Sister]

When it swells up enough for me to see from my house, then I'll worry.

I'll probably see it before you will, so I'll let you know.

[INRM]

Does anybody have figures for how much destruction such an eruption would cause?

Also, would the human race have any chance for survival?


INRM

[technoextreme]

Some day it will all blow itself into dust. That's not woo, that's science.
.
Nope. It's woo. If I remember correctly it might never blow up. Namely because of the tectonic plate movement. Im pretty sure I remember one of those documentaries mentioning that if the mountain ranges move over the hotspot it won't happen.Does anybody have figures for how much destruction such an eruption would cause?

Also, would the human race have any chance for survival?

There is an theory out that the closest humanity has come to dying off was a super volcanoe.

[geni]

Also, would the human race have any chance for survival?


Sure. It wouldn't be fun but I suspect we would get by.

[scratchy]

Sure. It wouldn't be fun but I suspect we would get by.
I read somewhere that studies of mitocondrial DNA suggests that the last time it happened the human species went through an evolutionary bottleneck, with only about 10 000 individuals surviving on the whole planet. That would have been some 70 000 years ago.

Found it, the Toba vulcano: http://www.andaman.org/BOOK/originals/Weber-Toba/textr.htm

[CapelDodger]

Nope. It's woo. If I remember correctly it might never blow up. Namely because of the tectonic plate movement. Im pretty sure I remember one of those documentaries mentioning that if the mountain ranges move over the hotspot it won't happen.

It's swelling. Does that suggest to you that it's gone quiet down there? It's been happening pretty regularly for a while now, so it would be a remarkable coincidence if it stopped just before we came along.

It'll go off again sometime unless we do something to prevent it. Which we might, given time - and there's probably lots of it.

[CapelDodger]

Sure. It wouldn't be fun but I suspect we would get by.

Some people surely would. Particularly people with guns, defensible compunds, large stores of MRE's and an authoritarian social structure.

[Larry Barrieau]

I worked there in '77' '78' and knew the park geologist. At the time he told me that there were a lot of small quakes every day. I only felt a couple. Good map Dan O. that red line indicates the caldera.

[MG1962]

Yellowstone is the least of your problems - watch the Azores

[Soapy Sam]

Some people surely would. Particularly people with guns, defensible compunds, large stores of MRE's and an authoritarian social structure.

Given a choice between death by nuee ardente and a diet of MREs,
pass the 300 degree ashfall.

[Dan O.]

It'll go off again sometime unless we do something to prevent it. Which we might, given time - and there's probably lots of it.

We already know how to prevent major earthquakes by intensionally triggering minor earthquakes. This will save millions of lives but we won't do it because everybody involved would be sued for all the little damage caused by the minor quakes. It's easier just to let the big one happen and deal with the mess afterwards.

Stopping the Yellowstone super volcano would be tricky. One possibility would be to drop in a massive geothermal energy project and try to cool the magma chamber. The problem is, as you cool the surface it becomes less pliable and if it gets too brittle it can crack and open a vent. As the magma vents to the surface, the dome sinks and further expands the cracks accelerating the process until you have a full blown super volcano.

[CapelDodger]

We already know how to prevent major earthquakes by intensionally triggering minor earthquakes. This will save millions of lives but we won't do it because everybody involved would be sued for all the little damage caused by the minor quakes. It's easier just to let the big one happen and deal with the mess afterwards.

Kill all the lawyers. Interruption over.

Stopping the Yellowstone super volcano would be tricky.

We do these things, not because they are easy, but because we're really concerned :). Global society will have to be very comfortable before it turns to this problem and what would have to be a massive project. We'll be pre-emptively shooting-up asteroids long before that (much more satisfying and telegenic).

One possibility would be to drop in a massive geothermal energy project and try to cool the magma chamber. The problem is, as you cool the surface it becomes less pliable and if it gets too brittle it can crack and open a vent. As the magma vents to the surface, the dome sinks and further expands the cracks accelerating the process until you have a full blown super volcano.

Another option is to somehow vent the gases in the magma so we can fine-tune the pressure. Then we get down to some serious grouting.

[Brown]

I hope no one blames the pressure build-up on me because of all those beer cans I threw down those fumaroles.

[CapelDodger]

Given a choice between death by nuee ardente and a diet of MREs,
pass the 300 degree ashfall.

That's a damn' harsh appraisal. Obviously heartfelt.

It's not either-or, there's also cannibalism, for instance, or a rat-and-bean menu. It's only for a few years. And if your compound happens to have be a major logistics hub it'll have cold-storage facilities, so you could still get your steak on Saturday and ham-and-eggs for breakfast.

[BenBurch]

I hope no one blames the pressure build-up on me because of all those beer cans I threw down those fumaroles.

No, but one of them shot out of there and maimed a park ranger... ;)

[CapelDodger]

Yellowstone is the least of your problems - watch the Azores

Watch the skies ...

[Diamond]

It's swelling. Does that suggest to you that it's gone quiet down there? It's been happening pretty regularly for a while now, so it would be a remarkable coincidence if it stopped just before we came along.

It'll go off again sometime unless we do something to prevent it. Which we might, given time - and there's probably lots of it.

Yes, it's now confirmed. You are an anti-scientific, ignorant lunatic.

All of those global warming rants aside, you'd now like to stop a supervolcano erupting. :rolleyes:

Exactly how would you do that?

No, don't tell me - it involves stopping all production of greenhouse gases until we're back to Ice Age conditions, right?

There's lots of problems to be solved if you just spend time thinking about it.

Next on Capeldodgy's list


How to stop the Sun going into a Red Giant phase and obliterating the Earth


Yep. We're waiting.

[Skeptic Guy]

Dang it, now I got that Jimmy Buffet song stuck in my head... "I don't know, I don't know, I don't know where I'ma gonna go when the volcano blows".

And haven't they recorded micro quakes already? Or maybe micro-micro quakes. I think I remember from the Discovery show that they have seismographs all around the caldera and they record small shifts fairly often. In fact, I thought I heard that they might be more worried if they stopped seeing seismic activity for a while as it could be an indication of pent up energy not being slowly bled off.

(I don't remember who "they" are. USGS?)

Don't want to land in New York City, don't want to land in Buzzard's Bay!

I'm a big Parrot Head!

http://www.seis.utah.edu/req2webdir/recenteqs/Maps/Yellowstone.html

Great map. Run away! Run away!

I've just mailed over some ointment that . . .a friend . . . had for a similar problem.

It rubs the lotion on its skin. It does this whenever it is told.

[DoubtingStephen]

I'm about 3 miles from the San Andreas fault. That's what I'd be worrying about if worrying was going to help.

[CapelDodger]

I'm about 3 miles from the San Andreas fault. That's what I'd be worrying about if worrying was going to help.

Moving away might help. I would.

The idea of living in an earthquake zone is quite alien to me. We don't have that sort of thing over here. No volcanoes, no terribly extreme weather - lots of it, but mostly moderate. Short of a tsunami from the Atlantic I'm on safe solid ground.

[DoubtingStephen]

Moving away might help. I would.

The idea of living in an earthquake zone is quite alien to me. We don't have that sort of thing over here. No volcanoes, no terribly extreme weather - lots of it, but mostly moderate. Short of a tsunami from the Atlantic I'm on safe solid ground.

In the last 20 years the number of people that have died in California as a result of an earthquake is fewer than 200, I believe. Most were in 1989 before I lived here.

I think the risk I'll suffer harm in an earthquake may be comparable to the risk of an airplane falling on my house. We live near an airport, and general aviation flights and old World War II planes often fly directly overhead.

Folks near Yellowstone also have some risk too, but in the end we all die anyway, so I don't worry much.

Besides, dying in a volcanic eruption or an earthquake would be a really cool way to die, I could be a statistic!

Are you in the UK? I'll take earthquake risk over 250 days a year of "soft" weather anytime.

[GT/CS]

2012 2012 2012!!!!!:rolleyes:

[CapelDodger]

In the last 20 years the number of people that have died in California as a result of an earthquake is fewer than 200, I believe. Most were in 1989 before I lived here.

Fewer than that in Cardiff.

I think the risk I'll suffer harm in an earthquake may be comparable to the risk of an airplane falling on my house. We live near an airport, and general aviation flights and old World War II planes often fly directly overhead.

That leaves you with twice the risk of the airplane thing.

Folks near Yellowstone also have some risk too, but in the end we all die anyway, so I don't worry much.

I don't worry about earthquakes, that's for sure.

Besides, dying in a volcanic eruption or an earthquake would be a really cool way to die, I could be a statistic!

Like you won't be anyway?

Are you in the UK? I'll take earthquake risk over 250 days a year of "soft" weather anytime.

I am in the UK, on the weather side, and I'll pass on the earthquake risk.

[Soapy Sam]

The idea of living in an earthquake zone is quite alien to me. We don't have that sort of thing over here. No volcanoes, no terribly extreme weather - lots of it, but mostly moderate. Short of a tsunami from the Atlantic I'm on safe solid ground.-Capeldodger

http://jgslegacy.lyellcollection.org/cgi/content/abstract/109/1-4/333

Don't you believe it, mate. Lots of Caledonoid faults in South Wales have been reactivated by mining, or reservoirs.

There's at least one surface quake scar aboveAberafon that's as big as the Hebgen Lake scar in Yellowstone.
And then there was the mystery Bala quake of '74- UFOs too!;)

[CapelDodger]

2012 2012 2012!!!!!:rolleyes:

I haven't heard that chant in a while. I guess it's time - five years is about the optimum marketing period, and the market-memory of Y2K has faded. 2012 it is. Mayan Calendars, Peak Oil, Rapture, hedge-funds, you name it. Things Are Coming to a Head.

[DoubtingStephen]

I am in the UK, on the weather side, and I'll pass on the earthquake risk.

But you run the risk of having alien creatures as mayor of Cardiff!

I'd rather die in a cloud of ashes from a Yellowstone eruption, or have our very heavy cement roof tiles fall on me during an earthquake, than suffer the indignity of my local government being taken over by aliens from another dimension.

Of course, on the brighter side, you do have Timelords helping you out.

[CapelDodger]

Don't you believe it, mate. Lots of Caledonoid faults in South Wales have been reactivated by mining, or reservoirs.

To no great effect. Trust me, I'd have noticed, and there'd be a tradition.

There's certainly a tradition of subsidence.

There's at least one surface quake scar aboveAberafon that's as big as the Hebgen Lake scar in Yellowstone.

That didn't happen recently. Certainly not after the industrial revolution. No sane person would have built refineries there after that.

And then there was the mystery Bala quake of '74- UFOs too!;)

They're all a bit fey up there. And there's no mystery to quakes in North Wales - the mountains are still rebounding from the last glaciation. There'll be the odd bump.

[CapelDodger]

But you run the risk of having alien creatures as mayor of Cardiff!

They'd have to be some hard-assed aliens to get past local politics, in which case I'd only be running the risk of not selling out to them in a timely manner.

I'd rather die in a cloud of ashes from a Yellowstone eruption, or have our very heavy cement roof tiles fall on me during an earthquake, than suffer the indignity of my local government being taken over by aliens from another dimension.

It felt like that during the Blair years, the loss of dignity thing, but it's much easier to imagine aliens taking over Westminster than Cardiff. It's old-time down-and-dirty politics around here.

Of course, on the brighter side, you do have Timelords helping you out.

They're certainly helping out the tourist trade :). And why not? Cardiff is a fine city, I've really taken to it. Despite once feeling an eathquake here (a spooky feeling).

[orpheus]

Nope. It's woo. If I remember correctly it might never blow up. Namely because of the tectonic plate movement. Im pretty sure I remember one of those documentaries mentioning that if the mountain ranges move over the hotspot it won't happen.

Actually, a gap of approximately 60 miles in the Gallatin mountain range (near Yellowstone) evidently was formed when an eruption blew the mountains away.

Bill Bryson, in "A Short History of Nearly Everything" writes about Yellowstone. (I'm not sure how well-respected this is as a source; coincidentally I happened to be reading it today, so it's on my desk. He does have an extensive and seemingly respectable bibliography.) On the scale of eruptions:

"We have absolutely nothing to compare it to. The biggest blast in recent times was that of Krakatau in Indonesia in August 183, which made a bang that reverberated around the world for nine days, and made water slosh as far away as the English Channel. But if you imagine the volume of ejected material from Krakatau as being about hte size of a golf ball, then the biggest of the Yellowstone blasts would be the size of a sphere you could just about hide behind. On this scale, Mount St. Helen's would be no more than a pea."

From what I've read, it's very hard to determine the likelihood of an imminent eruption. The last few Yellowstone eruptions were about 600,000 years apart, and the last one was about 630,000 years ago. So one theory is that we're due any day now. But apparently there is some evidence to suggest that there may be long periods of quiescence and we may be in one. There are lots of micro-quakes in and around Yellowstone each year, and the ground level has certainly been changing. But the area is so complex and volatile - and the magma chamber so large - that it's very hard to turn that data into a prediction.

I really don't know very much about this - I've just been interested in it, so I've read a bit. Any good books or articles anyone would recommend? (I'll check out the links already posted - thanks for those.)

[Soapy Sam]

There's certainly a tradition of subsidence.

Oh aye, all the coalfields have that, Here too.



That didn't happen recently. Certainly not after the industrial revolution. No sane person would have built refineries there after that.


It's some years since I saw it, but it was very fresh then. Post War, certainly. As you say, it's subsidence, but along a plane of weakness. If the movement across the plane is discernable , it's a fault, rather than a joint.

Of course, there's a load of sinkholes up that way too, with the Carb. Limestone near surface. Where the Coal Measures are still there, but thin, it's hard to tell what causes movement. Lots of good caving up Llangattock way, too!

[OMGturt1es]

Stopping the Yellowstone super volcano would be tricky. One possibility would be to drop in a massive geothermal energy project and try to cool the magma chamber. The problem is, as you cool the surface it becomes less pliable and if it gets too brittle it can crack and open a vent. As the magma vents to the surface, the dome sinks and further expands the cracks accelerating the process until you have a full blown super volcano.

perhaps a massive, geothermal project may also lead to fractional crystallization of the magma chamber, leaving a more silicious, viscious magma that is more likely to plug vents, leading to catastrophic eruption! ...or not.

Yes, it's now confirmed. You are an anti-scientific, ignorant lunatic.

All of those global warming rants aside, you'd now like to stop a supervolcano erupting. :rolleyes:

Exactly how would you do that?

[words...]



diamond, if you are suggesting that it would be better to let nature run its course than to attempt to stop such an eruption, i'd suggest that you are the "anti-scientific, ignorant lunatic". as awesome such an eruption would be, there is no doubt that it would have dire impacts on human survival. i don't know that we will ever have the ability to stop such an eruption, but i think it's certainly something we should strive toward.


In the last 20 years the number of people that have died in California as a result of an earthquake is fewer than 200, I believe. Most were in 1989 before I lived here.


the san andreas fault system is a current danger because trenching has provided evidence that it tends to "release" on a semi-regular basis via substancial quakes, and it is now long overdue. measuring its safety with the last 20 years in mind is simply an inadequate metric.

[DoubtingStephen]

the san andreas fault system is a current danger because trenching has provided evidence that it tends to "release" on a semi-regular basis via substancial quakes, and it is now long overdue. measuring its safety with the last 20 years in mind is simply an inadequate metric.

I don't doubt that you are correct, but I still think it is less of a danger to me than many other risks I take willingly, like eating in a restaurant, traveling in a car, walking along a street while listening to an iPod, and going through an airport security checkpoint.

The southern portion of the San Andreas which runs through the area of the Sonoran desert where I live is thought to be long overdue. I might die in an earthquake, but I expect to die of some sort of a common medical problem.

[INRM]

I just hope it doesn't happen soon. I would hate to see people like Dick Cheney and Bush go hog-wild on a natural disaster like this -- they could suspend the constitution, declare martial law and do whatever they want.

INRM

[CapelDodger]

I just hope it doesn't happen soon. I would hate to see people like Dick Cheney and Bush go hog-wild on a natural disaster like this -- they could suspend the constitution, declare martial law and do whatever they want.

INRM

A disaster on this scale might well blow federal authority away. States would look to deal with their local and regional circumstances. And they'd probably suspend the Constitution, impose martial law and do the other things. Washington could howl at the moon all it liked. Or it could make itself useful and declare that the fundamentals of the economy remain sound.

[CapelDodger]

I don't doubt that you are correct, but I still think it is less of a danger to me than many other risks I take willingly, like eating in a restaurant, traveling in a car, walking along a street while listening to an iPod, and going through an airport security checkpoint.

Less of or not, it's still another one. They stack up, you know.

The southern portion of the San Andreas which runs through the area of the Sonoran desert where I live is thought to be long overdue. I might die in an earthquake, but I expect to die of some sort of a common medical problem.

With luck we'll live lone enough to. The more planning, the less luck you need. The way I see it, moving out of an earthquake zone is a plan.

[CapelDodger]

perhaps a massive, geothermal project may also lead to fractional crystallization of the magma chamber, leaving a more silicious, viscious magma that is more likely to plug vents, leading to catastrophic eruption! ...or not.

Fortunately this isn't something we're going to be rushing into.

[BenBurch]

perhaps a massive, geothermal project may also lead to fractional crystallization of the magma chamber, leaving a more silicious, viscious magma that is more likely to plug vents, leading to catastrophic eruption! ...or not.

I'd vote for the geothermal project in any case!

[Skeptic Guy]

But you run the risk of having alien creatures as mayor of Cardiff!

I'd rather die in a cloud of ashes from a Yellowstone eruption, or have our very heavy cement roof tiles fall on me during an earthquake, than suffer the indignity of my local government being taken over by aliens from another dimension.

Of course, on the brighter side, you do have Timelords helping you out.

Think of the anal probing! Earthquake is a much better way to go.

In the last 20 years the number of people that have died in California as a result of an earthquake is fewer than 200, I believe. Most were in 1989 before I lived here.

I think the risk I'll suffer harm in an earthquake may be comparable to the risk of an airplane falling on my house. We live near an airport, and general aviation flights and old World War II planes often fly directly overhead.

Folks near Yellowstone also have some risk too, but in the end we all die anyway, so I don't worry much.

Besides, dying in a volcanic eruption or an earthquake would be a really cool way to die, I could be a statistic!

Are you in the UK? I'll take earthquake risk over 250 days a year of "soft" weather anytime.

Totally irrational, I know, but I used to live in Van Nuys in the early 90's. I was about 2 miles from the epicenter of the Northridge earthquake. I no longer live there because I don't want to go through that again. The earthquake itself was bad enough, but the weeks of constant after-shocks just drove me and my wife up the wall.

Again, the move was irrational, but the worst natural disaster I have to worry about (until one of you point out another one I hadn't thought of) is a hurricane, and I figure I have some time to get of the way of one of those.

[DoubtingStephen]

Think of the anal probing! Earthquake is a much better way to go.


Now I'm having second thoughts. I hear nice things about Cardiff. Is it nice probing or mean probing?


Again, the move was irrational, but the worst natural disaster I have to worry about (until one of you point out another one I hadn't thought of) is a hurricane, and I figure I have some time to get of the way of one of those.

I much prefer the surprise element in my natural disasters. Knowing that a hurricane is coming, and being stuck on a congested highway with all those stupid people right in my way just when I'm trying to get the heck out of there, that might be stressful.

I expect it would be fun to die suddenly in a huge cataclysmic event that occurs just when it's about time for the UPS guy to show up with my package from Amazon. Just waiting for the brown truck can get a trifle boring. Spice it up with a huge disaster and now you've got something to talk about.

[Skeptic Guy]

The way to go would be from a mass extinction by meteorite. It would have to be early in the morning since the UPS guy never comes until the very last part of the day and we would want to alleviate any potential boredom.

Just have a 50 kilometer wide piece of rock and iron smack into the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of my dear old New Jersey and wait for the resultant tsunami to take me away. Or would I be incinerated by the fire storm? So many choices.

ETA: About the probing...it depends if they are the Greys or the Browns. (I forget the supposed differences in alien species) It wouldn't be so bad if they would just buy you dinner before hand. It's all so abrupt and impersonal with these alien types.

[skeptigirl]

Here's the USGS volcano hazards website for Yellowstone with the latest bulletins.

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/The November 9, 2007 issue of Science Magazine features an article, Accelerated uplift and magmatic intrusion of the Yellowstone Caldera, 2004 to 2006, by YVO scientists from the University of Utah and USGS. Using GPS and another satellite-based technique (InSAR), the authors find that parts of the Yellowstone Caldera rose as much as 7 cm (~3") per year from 2004 to 2006. The uplift is most noticeable at the White Lake GPS station, as has been discussed in our monthly YVO updates over the past year. Chang and his colleagues credit the relatively rapid uplift to magma entering the region beneath the Yellowstone Caldera. During this period of uplift, there have been relatively few earthquakes at Yellowstone. Heat and gas flow from the geysers and hot springs also remain unchanged. Calderas such as Yellowstone can display this sort of geologic behavior, even for centuries or millennia, without erupting. Read more about the uplift in our article Recent ups and downs of the Yellowstone Caldera. Also see the University of Utah press release.There's all sorts of great information on the research and trends of this volcano at the website.

The report in Science is about a long term trend but there is nothing suggesting anything is imminent or otherwise unusual. A few years ago there was significant uplift that even changed the location of a lake killing some trees. Now that was a bulge! This appears to be something less radical. The uplift from several years ago eventually stopped and subsided. So now it is uplifting again.

Just before Mt St Helen's blew it was bulging more than 10, correction, 5 feet a day (http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/MSH/May18/description_north_flank_bulge.html).

[Skeptic Guy]

Thanks for the info skeptigirl.

[technoextreme]

."

From what I've read, it's very hard to determine the likelihood of an imminent eruption.
From what I've been reading this is wrong.The report in Science is about a long term trend but there is nothing suggesting anything is imminent or otherwise unusual. A few years ago there was significant uplift that even changed the location of a lake killing some trees. Now that was a bulge! This appears to be something less radical. The uplift from several years ago eventually stopped and subsided. So now it is uplifting again.

Just before Mt St Helen's blew it was bulging more than 10, correction, 5 feet a day.
True. That's what I've been reading. The entire volcano would deform.

[OMGturt1es]

Originally Posted by orpheus
From what I've read, it's very hard to determine the likelihood of an imminent eruption.

From what I've been reading this is wrong.


well, no. it's very difficult.

the USGS has had some success-- pinatubo, for instance-- and there are many data that can be associated with imminent eruption, but it's still amazingly difficult for accurate prediction of imminent eruption, as volcanism is inhernetly complex! moreover, human kind has never observed an eruption on the scale that the yellowstone plume is thought to be capable of producing. these eruptions are simply not very well understood.


True. That's what I've been reading. The entire volcano would deform.

in some cases, yes. in others, no.

if the primary cause of eruption is vent blockage, one may expect buldging, but this doesn't have to be the primary cause.

[OMGturt1es]

The report in Science is about a long term trend but there is nothing suggesting anything is imminent or otherwise unusual. A few years ago there was significant uplift that even changed the location of a lake killing some trees. Now that was a bulge! This appears to be something less radical. The uplift from several years ago eventually stopped and subsided. So now it is uplifting again.


and this is exactly the problem-- both the technology to accurately monitor yellowstone and the interpretation that yellowstone represents hot spot volcanism capable of catastrophic, "super volcanism" is relatively new, so we don't have much data with which to compare our current observations. likely what we are seeing is nothing out of the ordinary...


Just before Mt St Helen's blew it was bulging more than 10, correction, 5 feet a day (http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/MSH/May18/description_north_flank_bulge.html).

and its whaleback dome continues to grow rather quickly. i don't have the numbers off hand, but it's rather impressive to say the least.

[skeptigirl]

Thanks for the info skeptigirl.:D

I live in St Helen's country. You got to have an interest in volcanoes if you live by one that rained 6 inches of ash on your house.

[m_huber]

Volcanologists are as often wrong as they are right about volcano predictions. I saw it listed recently as one of the great challenges that science has not yet overcome.

When I was in Hawaii, we looked at bulges in Kilauea caldera that related to the movement of magma. There was no eruption associated with it, it was just a movement of fluids under the earth. Even though scientists have had permanent facilities on Kilauea for over 100 years, they are still unable to predict when and where the volcano will erupt. It is far more difficult with volcanoes that are more poorly understood.

As for the probability of Yellowstone going off, let's be clear about what "overdue" actually refers to. Remnants of former eruptions can be traced and dated. From that data, we can make a statistical model of how often the volcano erupts. Remember Mark Twain's words on statistics.

Yellowstone is a hotspot volcano, similar in principle to the Hawaiian islands. The pathway generally extends from the Cascade Mountains in Washington down to its present position, and the timing corresponds to the movement rates of the North American plate. If the hotspot happens to move under a mountain, then the magma will divert around the high-density core of the mountain and erupt someplace else. Nonetheless, it will still erupt.

What we have learned about stopping eruptions comes mainly from Iceland and Hawaii, where lava flows occur at slow enough rates that we can pump large volumes of water on them. The only "successful" attempt at stopping a lava flow occurred in Iceland in 1973 at Eldfell. Tankers sprayed water on the lava and managed to keep it from closing off a bay. However, they probably would not have been successful if the lava had continued to flow (Mother Earth decided she was done playing).

There has never been so much as a reasonable thought as to how to stop a highly silicic volcano from erupting. The very idea that we can stop the force of nature that created the land that we walk on is absurd. The magma is going to make it to the surface, and when it does, it is going to erupt violently. The best we can do is get out of the way.

Have a nice day!

[OMGturt1es]

Nope. It's woo. If I remember correctly it might never blow up. Namely because of the tectonic plate movement.


techno, where did you gain this understanding? i fear that your sources may have been quite inaccurate.

as plates have moved, the yellowstone plume has left its mark on the north american plate's surface. if current interpretations are correct, then plate movement certainly has not stopped the hot spot from erupting, as can be seen below:

http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~manders/images/SRP_erupt_cent_calderas.jpg
source: http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~manders/SRP_erupt.html


Im pretty sure I remember one of those documentaries mentioning that if the mountain ranges move over the hotspot it won't happen.


again, where did you get this?

here's an image that can give you some idea of what the yellowstone plume has done to surface topology:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/46/HotspotsSRP.jpg
source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:HotspotsSRP.jpg

[MG1962]

:D

I live in St Helen's country. You got to have an interest in volcanoes if you live by one that rained 6 inches of ash on your house.

Thats 15.24 cm for the other 9/10s of the world :p

[skeptigirl]

and this is exactly the problem-- both the technology to accurately monitor yellowstone and the interpretation that yellowstone represents hot spot volcanism capable of catastrophic, "super volcanism" is relatively new, so we don't have much data with which to compare our current observations. likely what we are seeing is nothing out of the ordinary...



and its whaleback dome continues to grow rather quickly. i don't have the numbers off hand, but it's rather impressive to say the least.The current eruption has been going on for 3 years (http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/MSH/Eruption04/MediaInfo/Sept07/eruption_facts_sept2007.pdf). That's different from the "bulging" that preceded the blast.

But I agree with your other observation. I think it was amazing St Helen's was bulging that much every day and the scientists still seemed taken by surprise when it blew. OTOH, I've been following Yellowstone, St Helens, Rainer, Mt Hood, the Long Valley (http://lvo.wr.usgs.gov/) (Similar to Yellowstone in caldera size), and the Cascadia subduction fault (http://www.pnsn.org/WEBICORDER/DEEPTREM/fall2006.html) for years and years. You do get a feel for the natural background movement after a while. I think the Yellowstone hazard level set at green is at least reliable enough to know it won't just blow up totally without warning. There's a lot of monitoring equipment at all of these locations including GPS and deep probes which detect that magma movement to a pretty precise degree. Pressure is monitored. There's nothing to worry about just yet here. We can still enjoy the fascination of it all.

Here's a bit more on the recent Yellowstone uplift (http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/2007/upsanddowns.html).

[OMGturt1es]

As for the probability of Yellowstone going off, let's be clear about what "overdue" actually refers to. Remnants of former eruptions can be traced and dated. From that data, we can make a statistical model of how often the volcano erupts. Remember Mark Twain's words on statistics.


it's also important to remember that "overdue" on a geologic timescale is something completely different than "overdue" on a human timescale.


There has never been so much as a reasonable thought as to how to stop a highly silicic volcano from erupting. The very idea that we can stop the force of nature that created the land that we walk on is absurd. The magma is going to make it to the surface, and when it does, it is going to erupt violently. The best we can do is get out of the way.


well, this depends on the composition of the melt, among other variables. as you pointed out, highly siliceous, viscous melts aren't going to be stopped, at least given current understanding of volcanism and current technology-- and i can't see any way that this is going to change!.

but, if we were to gain the ability to control the composition of a melt, we may be able to drastically alter its eventual extrusion. what we certainly don't need is a violent, explosive eruption that sends massive amounts of ash into our atmosphere.

do i think we can actually accomplish this? probably not. but i'd rather try than not. we can only gain a better understanding...

[Diamond]

Yellowstone is somewhat different from the Hawaiian chain in that the mantle plume is under a continent, and melting that type of rock produces a very sticky, viscous magma quite unlike the smoothly flowing lava that comes from Kilauea.

The stickiness of the magma means that large amounts of gases get trapped within the magma under incredible pressure. When the magma manages to find the surface, the loss of pressure on the gases produces an explosive decompression. ("Explosive" is a mild understatement in this context)

When that happens, you'll get a massive explosion involving tens of miles squared of rock being thrown into the stratosphere. When all of the magma has gone from the magma chamber, then the roof of the chamber will collapse forming yet another enormous hole in the mountains of the type seen in OMGturt1es' post (http://forums.randi.org/showpost.php?p=3143886&postcount=63) above.

The very likely consequence of a Yellowstone eruption would be a severe and several-years-lasting volcanic winter. Much of the mid-west, the breadbasket of the world, would be uncultivable for many years.

It's not likely to happen for hundreds or thousands of years, so I'm not going to be hoarding baked beans any time soon.

It is worth reflecting that we live on a dynamic, active planet which is conducive to life. But controlling that activity is beyond anything that mankind could do. Only crackpots think that the Earth's volcanic activity can be controlled.

[OMGturt1es]

The current eruption has been going on for 3 years (http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/MSH/Eruption04/MediaInfo/Sept07/eruption_facts_sept2007.pdf). That's different from the "bulging" that preceded the blast.


oh, yes. i just meant to point out that it's still very much active!


I think it was amazing St Helen's was bulging that much every day and the scientists still seemed taken by surprise when it blew.


well, eruption models at the time didn't really consider the possibility of such catastrophic, lateral eruptions. these sorts of eruptions aren't really the norm. no one was predicting that seismic activity would lead to a huge debris landslide triggering a lateral eruption.


I think the Yellowstone hazard level set at green is at least reliable enough to know it won't just blow up totally without warning. There's a lot of monitoring equipment at all of these locations including GPS and deep probes which detect that magma movement to a pretty precise degree. Pressure is monitored. There's nothing to worry about just yet here. We can still enjoy the fascination of it all.


on a human timescale, i'd highly suspect we're all fine, but our understanding of "super volcanism" is still quite vague. while i have no real worries about yellowstone erupting within my lifetime, i think it's important to note the limitations of our current interpretations.

[OMGturt1es]

It is worth reflecting that we live on a dynamic, active planet which is conducive to life. But controlling that activity is beyond anything that mankind could do. Only crackpots think that the Earth's volcanic activity can be controlled.

as a magma chamber slowly cools, the mafic minerals crystalize first, leaving behind a more silecous melt, high in volatiles. initial eruptions also tend to extrude the least viscous, most mafic melts, leaving behind a more silecous melt. silecous melts are far more viscous, and therefore more likley to block vents that allow the melt to degass. as the melt slowly rises, it encounters less pressure, allowing its volatiles to exolve. as volitales exolve from solution, pressure builds within the chamber.

i don't think it's beyond impossible that someday we will have the technology to monitor a magma chamber's overall composition, and to artifically erupt a magma while it is least silecous, or to even artifically vent a silecous magma, so as to prolong imminent eruption. i don't think we'll ever be able to control volcanic processes, or to stop volcanic processes, but we may be able to influence them, even if only in a small way.

[skeptigirl]

....well, eruption models at the time didn't really consider the possibility of such catastrophic, lateral eruptions. these sorts of eruptions aren't really the norm. no one was predicting that seismic activity would lead to a huge debris landslide triggering a lateral eruption. ....But explosive eruptions were certainly well known. There was a manned research station on the mountain which should not have been there. Dropping in for some readings with an escape helicopter, maybe, but not a manned station.

The reason it was so significant to me was my boyfriend and I had been camping very near the mountain on the weekends to see the incredible site. I was sooooo fascinated, and sooooo naive. My boyfriend thought it was dangerous, I said we were far enough away. The weekend before the eruption we had been on a logging road on the north side with a great view of this big looming black topped cone shaped mountain. After the eruption, we returned to our last camp spot. The entire mountain from that view was gone and only a bit of the crater rim was visible above the horizon. There was about 12 inches of ash. It was quite the learning experience for naive me.

[sophia8]

But you run the risk of having alien creatures as mayor of Cardiff!

I'd rather die in a cloud of ashes from a Yellowstone eruption, or have our very heavy cement roof tiles fall on me during an earthquake, than suffer the indignity of my local government being taken over by aliens from another dimension.

Of course, on the brighter side, you do have Timelords helping you out.Not to mention Captain Jack Harkness.....

[CapelDodger]

Now I'm having second thoughts. I hear nice things about Cardiff. Is it nice probing or mean probing?

There's no probing. We have Captain Jack and his team, so chronosynclastic infundibulum or no this is still the least probe-likely city on the planet.

I much prefer the surprise element in my natural disasters. Knowing that a hurricane is coming, and being stuck on a congested highway with all those stupid people right in my way just when I'm trying to get the heck out of there, that might be stressful.

Being secure up on a hill, looking down on all this, tugging on your pipe and saying "Yup. Storm's a-coming" is not stressful at all. Think on.

[CapelDodger]

Not to mention Captain Jack Harkness.....

What a guy ...!

[Skeptic Guy]

:D

I live in St Helen's country. You got to have an interest in volcanoes if you live by one that rained 6 inches of ash on your house.

The current eruption has been going on for 3 years (http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/MSH/Eruption04/MediaInfo/Sept07/eruption_facts_sept2007.pdf). That's different from the "bulging" that preceded the blast.

But I agree with your other observation. I think it was amazing St Helen's was bulging that much every day and the scientists still seemed taken by surprise when it blew. OTOH, I've been following Yellowstone, St Helens, Rainer, Mt Hood, the Long Valley (http://lvo.wr.usgs.gov/) (Similar to Yellowstone in caldera size), and the Cascadia subduction fault (http://www.pnsn.org/WEBICORDER/DEEPTREM/fall2006.html) for years and years. You do get a feel for the natural background movement after a while. I think the Yellowstone hazard level set at green is at least reliable enough to know it won't just blow up totally without warning. There's a lot of monitoring equipment at all of these locations including GPS and deep probes which detect that magma movement to a pretty precise degree. Pressure is monitored. There's nothing to worry about just yet here. We can still enjoy the fascination of it all.

Here's a bit more on the recent Yellowstone uplift (http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/2007/upsanddowns.html).

From skeptigirl's link:


Interestingly, the Yellowstone caldera has remained seismically quiet during the past three years of uplift.


There aren't any of the seismic swarms that would typically precede an eruption.

In fact, the experts seem to think that things will settle down at some point in the future:


Given the geologic history of the area, it is likely that the current period of uplift will cease, to be followed by another cycle of subsidence. When this might happen, though, is unknown.


I'll stop stocking the canned food items for the moment. :D

[skeptigirl]

...I'll stop stocking the canned food items for the moment. :DDunno, you might want to keep them for the coming Armageddon. That is if you plan on staying down here with all us non-rapture folk. ;)

[Soapy Sam]

Here's another one for the Americans to keep an eye on.
The Mammoth / Long Valley area is another area of considerable potential risk.
Good skiing too. I was up there in January after TAM.

http://lvo.wr.usgs.gov/

Incidentally, there's more to the history of the Snake River / Columbia River area than just the current Yellowstone hotspot. Fascinating area.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snake_River
http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/ColumbiaPlateau/description_columbia_plateau.html

[skeptigirl]

The Scablands. I know them well. :) It's fun to imagine what that flood must have looked like.

But, ahem... I posted that Long Valley link in post #65. ;)

[Silly Green Monkey]

Is the La Garita crater part of this system?

[Soapy Sam]

But, ahem... I posted that Long Valley link in post #65- Skeptigirl.


So you did. How did I miss that?:o


There are similar sand ripples to some of the Scabland ones north of the Caspian Sea. Visible from 30,000 feet. I wonder about the recent (postglacial) history...

[GT/CS]

Here's another one for the Americans to keep an eye on.
The Mammoth / Long Valley area is another area of considerable potential risk.
Good skiing too. I was up there in January after TAM.

http://lvo.wr.usgs.gov/

Incidentally, there's more to the history of the Snake River / Columbia River area than just the current Yellowstone hotspot. Fascinating area.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snake_River
http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/ColumbiaPlateau/description_columbia_plateau.html

And the Pacific plate subduction zone that is due for a pop. Massive earthquake to take out Seattle, Portland, & Vancouver. Then a huge tsumami as a result of the subduction.

And the tsumani that is supposed to hit the east coast at any time.

We're just going to get it from all sides and the middle!

[skeptigirl]

I T E O T W A W K I

(That is so weird. The forum program wouldn't let me cap that without the spaces.)

[DoubtingStephen]

Moving away might help. I would.

The idea of living in an earthquake zone is quite alien to me. We don't have that sort of thing over here. No volcanoes, no terribly extreme weather - lots of it, but mostly moderate. Short of a tsunami from the Atlantic I'm on safe solid ground.

Well, I didn't listen, and today we did have an earthquake. I didn't know until I happened to check on the local news. It seems it was a 3.2 on the Richter scale, and was centered about 22 miles away. (report (http://cbs5.com/earthquake/earthquake.la.quinta.2.570473.html))

I hate it when there is an earthquake nearby and I don't even notice it!

[GT/CS]

And the Pacific plate subduction zone that is due for a pop. Massive earthquake to take out Seattle, Portland, & Vancouver. Then a huge tsumami as a result of the subduction.

And the tsumani that is supposed to hit the east coast at any time.

We're just going to get it from all sides and the middle!

ETA: Oops, forgot about the tsunami that will take out Los Angeles when the east side of the Big Island collapses into the Pacific.

[drzeus99]

Hmmm.. what odds will you give me for on or before July 7th, 2043?

Cuz, I'll need a reason to party on my 80th birthday.

Cool. Let's party together. I'll be 80 a month after you. :D

[HawaiiBigSis]

<snip>Any good books or articles anyone would recommend? (I'll check out the links already posted - thanks for those.)
The novel "Maori" by Alan Dean Foster has the development of Mt Tarawera in New Zealand -- IIRC mid-1800s -- as a plot element. It wasn't the main focus of the book, but it was an interesting part of it, to me. Our Kiwi participants could probably provide more information.

[Hindmost]

Anyone besides me picturing buffaloes flying through the air and landing on people????

So, I have thought about the thermal energy project thing...if it was not right and the heat wasn't extracted in a uniform manner, it could set up a convection current that could cause the explosion...

glenn

[skeptigirl]

Falling cow hits minivan. (http://www.king5.com/localnews/stories/NW_110605WAB_falling_cow_hits_minivan_JM.1e34a65e4 .html)

:D

[CapelDodger]

Falling cow hits minivan. (http://www.king5.com/localnews/stories/NW_110605WAB_falling_cow_hits_minivan_JM.1e34a65e4 .html)

:D


Everson, 49, and his wife were visiting the area from Westland, Michigan, near Detroit, and were headed back to their hotel after attending a church service.
The newspaper cites Everson saying he didn't see the animal until it hit and didn't realize what happened until after the impact.
"I'm like, 'I don't believe this, I don't believe this, I don't believe this,'" Everson told the newspaper.
"It's funny because it was such a close call," Arnold Baker, Chelan County Fire District 5 Chief told the World. "Inches different and the couple in this car would have been killed."

They'd just been to church, for crying out loud, what more is being asked of them? Did they get their prayers mixed-up? Was it the wrong sort of church? If it's a sign they've been sent it's particularly enigmatic.

"I don't believe this, I don't believe this ..." Dead guy wakes up three days later and that he believes, but a cow that can't fly freaks him out.

[skeptigirl]

Hey buddy, they have God to thank because the cow missed the passenger compartment. :rolleyes:

[Hindmost]

Might have been praying for rain for georgia and got cows instead...

glenn

[Skeptic Guy]

Mmmmm....steaks for everyone!

[Gravy]

Can't they use a really big one of these (http://www.alllancets.com/fleamboil.html) on it?