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jay gw · 20th June 2005, 09:02 AM

As tens of thousands of engineering jobs migrate to developing countries, many new entrants into the U.S. work force see info tech jobs as monotonous, uncreative and easily farmed out - the equivalent of 1980s manufacturing jobs.

The research firm Gartner Inc. predicts that up to 15 percent of tech workers will drop out of the profession by 2010, not including those who retire or die. Most will leave because they can't get jobs or can get more money or job satisfaction elsewhere. Within the same period, worldwide demand for technology developers - a job category ranging from programmers people who maintain everything from mainframes to employee laptops - is forecast to shrink by 30 percent.

The U.S. software industry lost 16 percent of its jobs from March 2001 to March 2004, the Washington-based Economic Policy Institute found. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that information technology industries laid off more than 7,000 American workers in the first quarter of 2005.

U.S. graduates probably shouldn't think of computer programming or chemical engineering as long-term careers but it's "not all gloom and doom," said Albert C. Gray, executive director of the National Society of Professional Engineers.

http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate...s/11938260.htm

Soapy Sam · 20th June 2005, 09:18 AM

Most engineers end up in management after a few years anyway.

Surely foreign competition is not areason to quit, but a spur to excel?

IllegalArgument · 20th June 2005, 09:27 AM

I work in IT and I think they are over-estimating the problem. Certain niches will be hit hard, but others will be untouched. It's hard enough to develop software, then add travel and language barriers on top that.

The problem with these kinds of reports is that "IT" the word covers too many niches. One niche could be decimated by outsourcing, another untouched.

Let's take support. If you worked in phone support at a hardware company, yes I would be worried. I work in support for a product company, my job requires good of programming, problem solving with good communication skills, at least verbal.

It takes months to a year or more to get a good handle on the code.

I'm not worried about my job getting outsourced.

Hellbound · 20th June 2005, 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by IllegalArgument
I work in IT and I think they are over-estimating the problem. Certain niches will be hit hard, but others will be untouched. It's hard enough to develop software, then add travel and language barriers on top that.

The problem with these kinds of reports is that "IT" the word covers too many niches. One niche could be decimated by outsourcing, another untouched.

Let's take support. If you worked in phone support at a hardware company, yes I would be worried. I work in support for a product company, my job requires good of programming, problem solving with good communication skills, at least verbal. It takes months to a year or more to get a good handle on the code.

I'm not worried about my job getting outsourced.

Not to mention certain areas, such as security, are growing and are expected to continue to grow. Additionally, there are new technologies produced each year, and those who keep up-to-date on the latest and greatest are always in demand. Consulting is an area that continues to grow, as well, especially in areas such as business analysis (examining the processes involved in automation for improvements and cost-saving measures).

I think all we're seeing here is that IT is developing into a mature market. It's no longer an "elite" field. Companies are now expecting candidates for positions to have actual skill, education, and experience, instead of a "buy-a-cert" gained from a few 30 question multiple-choice tests. There are more candidates to choose from, so there's more competition for jobs. There are more people with experience, as well, who can make better-informed decisions on hiring. Quite frankly, I see it as a good thing. Several times in my career in IT, I've had to follow instructions from managers who had much less knowledge of a particular area than I...or lost a promotion or position to someone who had a piece of paper, but didn't have the experience or knowledge to do the job. Not to mention the number of computer "professionals" I've had to rely on for support who have misconceptions about the basics of computer and network function.

Additionally, many support jobs are lessening because of improvements to software stability and support tools. The ratio of support techs to users used to be estimated around 1:50 or 1:100. Now, its routine to see a ratior closer to 1:200 or 1:300. The tools, networks, equipment, software, and other aspects are better, and one person can do more.

All of this speaks to a market that is becoming mature, rather than still being a new field. Of course, computers were often predicted to be a dead-end field in the first, early days of their development. I place little faith in future-projected analysis...especially beyond a few years.

CBL4 · 20th June 2005, 02:32 PM

In 1993, Edward Yourdon wrote the book "Decline and Fall of the American Programmer" which explained why software jobs would disappear from the US. Then the internet and telecom booms hit and there was an incredible shortage of software engineers. We are living in the aftermath of the crash that followed the boom.

While the cutting edge high tech industry continues to need software engineers, there will be lots of jobs for software engineers in the US because time to market will overwhelm all other factors.

Sooner or later, programmers will become an interchangeable commodity and the jobs are likely to leave the US. In some niches, this is occurring. In most of the "IT" it is not happening ... yet. I will not guess the timing except to say that I figure I am safe because I plan to retire in the next 20 years.

CBL

20th June 2005, 09:02 AM	#1
jay gw Suspended Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 1,824	College students should stay away from computer careers As tens of thousands of engineering jobs migrate to developing countries, many new entrants into the U.S. work force see info tech jobs as monotonous, uncreative and easily farmed out - the equivalent of 1980s manufacturing jobs. The research firm Gartner Inc. predicts that up to 15 percent of tech workers will drop out of the profession by 2010, not including those who retire or die. Most will leave because they can't get jobs or can get more money or job satisfaction elsewhere. Within the same period, worldwide demand for technology developers - a job category ranging from programmers people who maintain everything from mainframes to employee laptops - is forecast to shrink by 30 percent. The U.S. software industry lost 16 percent of its jobs from March 2001 to March 2004, the Washington-based Economic Policy Institute found. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that information technology industries laid off more than 7,000 American workers in the first quarter of 2005. U.S. graduates probably shouldn't think of computer programming or chemical engineering as long-term careers but it's "not all gloom and doom," said Albert C. Gray, executive director of the National Society of Professional Engineers. http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate...s/11938260.htm
jay gw Suspended Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 1,824

20th June 2005, 09:18 AM	#2
Soapy Sam NLH Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 25,921	Most engineers end up in management after a few years anyway. Surely foreign competition is not areason to quit, but a spur to excel?
Soapy Sam NLH Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 25,921

20th June 2005, 02:32 PM	#5
CBL4 Master Poster Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 2,349	In 1993, Edward Yourdon wrote the book "Decline and Fall of the American Programmer" which explained why software jobs would disappear from the US. Then the internet and telecom booms hit and there was an incredible shortage of software engineers. We are living in the aftermath of the crash that followed the boom. While the cutting edge high tech industry continues to need software engineers, there will be lots of jobs for software engineers in the US because time to market will overwhelm all other factors. Sooner or later, programmers will become an interchangeable commodity and the jobs are likely to leave the US. In some niches, this is occurring. In most of the "IT" it is not happening ... yet. I will not guess the timing except to say that I figure I am safe because I plan to retire in the next 20 years. CBL
CBL4 Master Poster Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 2,349

20th June 2005, 09:27 AM	#3
IllegalArgument Graduate Poster Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Reston, VA Posts: 1,761	I work in IT and I think they are over-estimating the problem. Certain niches will be hit hard, but others will be untouched. It's hard enough to develop software, then add travel and language barriers on top that. The problem with these kinds of reports is that "IT" the word covers too many niches. One niche could be decimated by outsourcing, another untouched. Let's take support. If you worked in phone support at a hardware company, yes I would be worried. I work in support for a product company, my job requires good of programming, problem solving with good communication skills, at least verbal. It takes months to a year or more to get a good handle on the code. I'm not worried about my job getting outsourced.

20th June 2005, 12:55 PM	#4
Hellbound Abiogenic Spongiform Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: In a handbasket Posts: 9,030	Quote: Originally posted by IllegalArgument I work in IT and I think they are over-estimating the problem. Certain niches will be hit hard, but others will be untouched. It's hard enough to develop software, then add travel and language barriers on top that. The problem with these kinds of reports is that "IT" the word covers too many niches. One niche could be decimated by outsourcing, another untouched. Let's take support. If you worked in phone support at a hardware company, yes I would be worried. I work in support for a product company, my job requires good of programming, problem solving with good communication skills, at least verbal. It takes months to a year or more to get a good handle on the code. I'm not worried about my job getting outsourced. Not to mention certain areas, such as security, are growing and are expected to continue to grow. Additionally, there are new technologies produced each year, and those who keep up-to-date on the latest and greatest are always in demand. Consulting is an area that continues to grow, as well, especially in areas such as business analysis (examining the processes involved in automation for improvements and cost-saving measures). I think all we're seeing here is that IT is developing into a mature market. It's no longer an "elite" field. Companies are now expecting candidates for positions to have actual skill, education, and experience, instead of a "buy-a-cert" gained from a few 30 question multiple-choice tests. There are more candidates to choose from, so there's more competition for jobs. There are more people with experience, as well, who can make better-informed decisions on hiring. Quite frankly, I see it as a good thing. Several times in my career in IT, I've had to follow instructions from managers who had much less knowledge of a particular area than I...or lost a promotion or position to someone who had a piece of paper, but didn't have the experience or knowledge to do the job. Not to mention the number of computer "professionals" I've had to rely on for support who have misconceptions about the basics of computer and network function. Additionally, many support jobs are lessening because of improvements to software stability and support tools. The ratio of support techs to users used to be estimated around 1:50 or 1:100. Now, its routine to see a ratior closer to 1:200 or 1:300. The tools, networks, equipment, software, and other aspects are better, and one person can do more. All of this speaks to a market that is becoming mature, rather than still being a new field. Of course, computers were often predicted to be a dead-end field in the first, early days of their development. I place little faith in future-projected analysis...especially beyond a few years.