New Years Psychic Prediction Failures: 2010 Year in Review

MattusMaximus · 1st January 2011, 08:27 PM

Howdy all,

My first blog post of the year was a long & laborious analysis of a number of psychic claims. Enjoy!

New Years Psychic Prediction Failures: 2010 Year in Review

Quote:

Among the New Year traditions that seem to get bantered about these days are psychic predictions for the upcoming year. Of course, psychics are a bunch of hooey – ever seen a newspaper headline titled “Psychic Wins Lottery, Gives Money to Starving Kids!”? You never will, because psychic & other related paranormal phenomena just don’t work, period.

However, there are all too many faithful followers of psychic woo who want to believe that it works. One of the primary ways in which believers fool themselves is to cherry-pick the predictions & results; in skeptic-speak, we call this “counting the hits and ignoring the misses”. And there are a LOT more misses than hits, folks. In addition, many of these psychics tend to make very vague & ambiguous predictions which can be twisted and interpreted in a number of ways. This creative interpretation of misses or vague predictions after-the-fact as hits is well documented in the history of psychic woo.

As a way of illustrating this, let us take some time to examine a series of predictions made one year ago by a number of famous psychics, shall we? ...

It gets pretty interesting.

Orphia Nay · 1st January 2011, 08:58 PM

Good stuff, Matt!

MattusMaximus · 1st January 2011, 09:10 PM

Thanks. My favorite one is where the psychic predicts "trouble with the moon's atmosphere"

bookitty · 1st January 2011, 09:30 PM

Sometimes all you can do is laugh. Which is why I really appreciate it when someone puts it all in one nice, easy to mock package. Thanks!

Emet · 1st January 2011, 09:58 PM

Originally Posted by MattusMaximus

Howdy all,

My first blog post of the year was a long & laborious analysis of a number of psychic claims. Enjoy!

I did!

Thanks.

Sledge · 1st January 2011, 10:07 PM

Originally Posted by MattusMaximus

Thanks. My favorite one is where the psychic predicts "trouble with the moon's atmosphere"

Not having an atmosphere sounds like trouble to me.

Squeegee Beckenheim · 2nd January 2011, 06:05 AM

The moon does have an atmosphere, albeit a very thin one: http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary.../moonfact.html

Foolmewunz · 2nd January 2011, 06:21 AM

Well done, MM. I sent a link to a few friends from work, as we were having this discussion a week ago during a happy hour get-together. The Chinese are incredibly superstitious, and the discussion got a little heated (but friendly).

Your timing couldn't have been better.

Miss_Kitt · 3rd January 2011, 12:55 AM

Just added your blog to my favorites...I predict I will be reading it this year!

Thanks, MK

CynicalSkeptic · 3rd January 2011, 01:23 AM

I think you can update the paragraph on the psychic twins. We didn't have a single hurricane make landfall in the US this year, so I think you can say the prediction of a hurricane on the "Gulf Coast" is a failure.

Also a quick scan of List of terrorist incidents, 2010^WP shows only one terrorist attack in the US for the year, so "There will be several terrorist attacks in the US and also in other countries later this year, starting in March." sounds like a failure to me as well.

I know you wrote these off as vague and useless predictions, but IMO, it's even better criticism to show that were explicitly wrong.

MattusMaximus · 3rd January 2011, 12:48 PM

Originally Posted by CynicalSkeptic

I think you can update the paragraph on the psychic twins. We didn't have a single hurricane make landfall in the US this year, so I think you can say the prediction of a hurricane on the "Gulf Coast" is a failure.

Also a quick scan of List of terrorist incidents, 2010^WP shows only one terrorist attack in the US for the year, so "There will be several terrorist attacks in the US and also in other countries later this year, starting in March." sounds like a failure to me as well.

I know you wrote these off as vague and useless predictions, but IMO, it's even better criticism to show that were explicitly wrong.

Thanks for the update!

shandyjan · 3rd January 2011, 06:16 PM

Just looking at the bits without clicking on each psychic it looks no more than guesses made in a forum for fun. And just as if not more wrong

Thanks for putting it together!

1st January 2011, 08:27 PM	#1
MattusMaximus Intellectual Gladiator Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: In the midst of a vast, beautiful & uncaring universe Posts: 14,175	New Years Psychic Prediction Failures: 2010 Year in Review Howdy all, My first blog post of the year was a long & laborious analysis of a number of psychic claims. Enjoy! New Years Psychic Prediction Failures: 2010 Year in Review Quote: Among the New Year traditions that seem to get bantered about these days are psychic predictions for the upcoming year. Of course, psychics are a bunch of hooey – ever seen a newspaper headline titled “Psychic Wins Lottery, Gives Money to Starving Kids!”? You never will, because psychic & other related paranormal phenomena just don’t work, period. However, there are all too many faithful followers of psychic woo who want to believe that it works. One of the primary ways in which believers fool themselves is to cherry-pick the predictions & results; in skeptic-speak, we call this “counting the hits and ignoring the misses”. And there are a LOT more misses than hits, folks. In addition, many of these psychics tend to make very vague & ambiguous predictions which can be twisted and interpreted in a number of ways. This creative interpretation of misses or vague predictions after-the-fact as hits is well documented in the history of psychic woo. As a way of illustrating this, let us take some time to examine a series of predictions made one year ago by a number of famous psychics, shall we? ... It gets pretty interesting.
	__________________ Visit my blog: The Skeptical Teacher The Times They Are A-Changin'

1st January 2011, 08:58 PM	#2
Orphia Nay Penguilicious Spodmaster. Tagger Join Date: May 2005 Location: Ponylandistan Presidential Palace (above the Spods' stables). Posts: 28,372	Good stuff, Matt!
	__________________ Are you an ex-Truther? Please share your story. ~ The Australasian Skeptics Forum.

1st January 2011, 09:10 PM	#3
MattusMaximus Intellectual Gladiator Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: In the midst of a vast, beautiful & uncaring universe Posts: 14,175	Thanks. My favorite one is where the psychic predicts "trouble with the moon's atmosphere"
	__________________ Visit my blog: The Skeptical Teacher The Times They Are A-Changin' Last edited by MattusMaximus; 1st January 2011 at 09:16 PM.

1st January 2011, 09:30 PM	#4
bookitty Philosopher Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 5,532	Sometimes all you can do is laugh. Which is why I really appreciate it when someone puts it all in one nice, easy to mock package. Thanks!
	__________________ No more cupcakes for me, thanks.

1st January 2011, 09:58 PM	#5
Emet Illuminator Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 3,395	Originally Posted by MattusMaximus Howdy all, My first blog post of the year was a long & laborious analysis of a number of psychic claims. Enjoy! I did! Thanks.
Emet Illuminator Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 3,395

1st January 2011, 10:07 PM	#6
Sledge Grammaton Cleric Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: Swingin' on a star Posts: 7,123	Originally Posted by MattusMaximus Thanks. My favorite one is where the psychic predicts "trouble with the moon's atmosphere" Not having an atmosphere sounds like trouble to me.
	__________________ "The perfect haiku would have just two syllables: Airwolf" ~ Ernest Cline "Science knows it doesn't know everything, otherwise it would stop" ~ Dara O'Briain.

2nd January 2011, 06:05 AM	#7
Squeegee Beckenheim Illuminator Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 4,258	The moon does have an atmosphere, albeit a very thin one: http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary.../moonfact.html

2nd January 2011, 06:21 AM	#8
Foolmewunz Grammar Resistance Leader Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Pattaya, Thailand Posts: 20,520	Well done, MM. I sent a link to a few friends from work, as we were having this discussion a week ago during a happy hour get-together. The Chinese are incredibly superstitious, and the discussion got a little heated (but friendly). Your timing couldn't have been better.
	__________________ Ha! Foolmewunz has just been added to the list of people who aren't complete idiots. Hokulele Don't you wish someone had slapped baby Hitler really really hard? [i] Dr. Buzzo 02/13 [i]

3rd January 2011, 12:55 AM	#9
Miss_Kitt Zombie Horse of Homeopathy Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Lesser Seattle Posts: 3,625	Just added your blog to my favorites...I predict I will be reading it this year! Thanks, MK
	__________________ It's much better to live an honest life than a delusional one -- desertgal Magic thinking is a lead personal floatation device. It looks really reassuring, but it will drag you down--whatthebutlersaw

3rd January 2011, 01:23 AM	#10
CynicalSkeptic Graduate Poster Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: state of denial Posts: 1,361	I think you can update the paragraph on the psychic twins. We didn't have a single hurricane make landfall in the US this year, so I think you can say the prediction of a hurricane on the "Gulf Coast" is a failure. Also a quick scan of List of terrorist incidents, 2010^WP shows only one terrorist attack in the US for the year, so "There will be several terrorist attacks in the US and also in other countries later this year, starting in March." sounds like a failure to me as well. I know you wrote these off as vague and useless predictions, but IMO, it's even better criticism to show that were explicitly wrong.
	Last edited by CynicalSkeptic; 3rd January 2011 at 01:27 AM.

3rd January 2011, 12:48 PM	#11
MattusMaximus Intellectual Gladiator Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: In the midst of a vast, beautiful & uncaring universe Posts: 14,175	Originally Posted by CynicalSkeptic I think you can update the paragraph on the psychic twins. We didn't have a single hurricane make landfall in the US this year, so I think you can say the prediction of a hurricane on the "Gulf Coast" is a failure. Also a quick scan of List of terrorist incidents, 2010^WP shows only one terrorist attack in the US for the year, so "There will be several terrorist attacks in the US and also in other countries later this year, starting in March." sounds like a failure to me as well. I know you wrote these off as vague and useless predictions, but IMO, it's even better criticism to show that were explicitly wrong. Thanks for the update!
	__________________ Visit my blog: The Skeptical Teacher The Times They Are A-Changin'

3rd January 2011, 06:16 PM	#12
shandyjan Master Poster Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: N/W England Posts: 2,111	Just looking at the bits without clicking on each psychic it looks no more than guesses made in a forum for fun. And just as if not more wrong Thanks for putting it together!
	__________________ Belief is the wound that knowledge heals. Ursula K. LeGuin's A dog is for life, not just for xmas!