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#281 |
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Fiend God
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: In the details...
Posts: 28,528
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The Onmyouza Theatre, An unofficial international fanclub forum dedicated to the Japanese heavy metal band Onmyo-Za: "In the interests of time and space, it is not unreasonable to cite one point at a time. Citing 30 is the equivalent of citing none. Obviously." - Robert Prey "Physical evidence must be observed and interpreted by witnesses which makes it subjective and subject to mistakes and to fraud." - Robert Prey |
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#282 |
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Daydreamer
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Downunder
Posts: 4,280
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"That is just what you feel, that isn't reality." - hamelekim |
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#283 |
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discombobulated
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 4,575
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But I don't think they will. If you want it badly, you buy it when it first comes out. If you don't care, you might wait until the fanfare dies down then grab it off the clearance table or secondhand. They overestimate the desirability of their product. Rather than buying it new, the indifferent won't buy it at all.
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Pet Lover http://forums.randi.org/group.php?groupid=45 "When particles of evil and iniquity swarm together, they make a Lolly.": Legend |
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#284 |
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Critical Thinker
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: France
Posts: 443
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People already expressed my feelings.
As Lolly said, it's not even sure that closed systems & proprietary formats are even desirable in the long term for the industry. The lessons of the VHS/Betamax and BR/HDDVD wars seems to be that a shared inter-operable platform (with a modest royalty fee to the patent holder) have tremendous advantages for consumers (reduces the number of device to own; reduces the prices on the reading devices through mass production and increased competition; much more convenient to use, lend and sell) but also does wonders for the overall diffusion of cultural products and thus is profitable to artists and producers on a whole. Yet at each and every technological advance, you see major companies trying to impose proprietary tools. It is not totally illegitimate that they worry over retaining control over the works they have the rights to, but it constantly translates into power plays and abuse. I think the rationale is that the prospect of imposing a closed monopoly is too lucrative to pass upon. |
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"The idea of justice is not a result of the social pact, as some pretended ; on the contrary, it is the very foundation of society" Prince Adam Jerzy Czartoryski, Essay on diplomacy |
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#285 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bothell, WA
Posts: 3,782
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Worldwide online gaming is huge. Emerging markets never got in the habit of buying discs anyway.
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Downloadable games are the most popular on earth, far surpassing disc based games if you look worldwide.
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Anyway I mostly agree here. The platform holders are the ones who are going to make the money and that's not EA.
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Then look at Zynga and the huge number of Asian companies that are cleaning up. There was a rumor last week that Nexon was going to buy EA for example. Bottom line, the shakeup is happening now. |
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#286 |
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discombobulated
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 4,575
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Pet Lover http://forums.randi.org/group.php?groupid=45 "When particles of evil and iniquity swarm together, they make a Lolly.": Legend |
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#287 |
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Orthogonal Vector
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Tarrytown, NY
Posts: 26,434
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Sufficiently advanced Woo is indistinguishable from Parody "There shall be no *poofing* in science" Paul C. Anagnostopoulos Force ***** on reasons back" Ben Franklin |
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#288 |
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 5,800
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This thread is about console games. Specifically Sony consoles. That isn't even remotely close to being true for console games, including worldwide.
As I pointed out before, they aren't going to stop producing actual discs for the consoles when a good quarter of the US doesn't have sufficient internet access to download games. Even some of the urban areas are getting their internet capped. It's pretty hard to justify a 5gb video game download if you are capped. We aren't talking about 2mb angry birds downloads here. Give it a few (console) generations and then maybe it will happen. |
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#289 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bothell, WA
Posts: 3,782
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#290 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bothell, WA
Posts: 3,782
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First off console games are a small portion of the worldwide market. They never took off in places like China, Russia, Korea, Brazil, Turkey etc.
The games market has been seeing insane growth in those countries and most of them have never seen a console. So keep in mind I'm looking at this from a global business perspective. Also keep in mind that consoles work on cycles. Each cycle is a time when major market shakeups happen. For example in the PS2 generation Sony ruled all. PS3 has done ok but Wii and Xbox360 are both more successful. The first XBox was just a huge money loser and MS were basically begging people to put games on their box. At the end of the day they are all going to be facing a serious market reality when they try to ship their next-gen boxes. There is huge opportunity for new players to emerge in the "console" space including players like Apple and Google. Those companies are *not* going to be selling disk based games and it's very difficult to argue that selling disks makes sense going forward. For "next-gen" (ps4, xbox720) they are going to have the upfront barrier of getting the consoles into peoples living rooms. But when you compare even the successful consoles to the market share of something like iPhone you realize just how small the "core" gaming market is. Bottom line the "next-gen" boxes are going to look a lot more like an iphone than vice versa. Digital delivery with an app store type model dramatically improves the market situation on almost every level. Retail is too slow, too expensive (and lacking in price elasticity) to compete in the long term.
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Now that's not to say they won't support disks. I do expect the current business model to survive into the next generation but it will slowly fade away. However the disk based games will only be the blockbusters that can sell 5-10M+ units and there won't be a ton of them. From an investment standpoint the ROI on them is too at risk compared to the upfront cost. So you'll see a lot of sequels and big bets by some of the companies this makes sense for (budgets for these games will be in the $30-$150M range). For everyone else working on titles that downloadable makes the most sense. In fact downloadable already beats the traditional market if you look at the entire world.
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Basically in reality this is just a non-issue. Most of the emerging markets actually have better internet infrastructure than the US. I was talking to the CEO of a company that makes iphone games and all of their games are over the 50MB limit for downloading 3g and they have millions and millions of customers.
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Keep in mind I am in a position to know a ton of non-public information. This is my industry and I've got my finger on the pulse of it. |
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#291 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bothell, WA
Posts: 3,782
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#292 |
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Critical Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: West Coast - BC
Posts: 372
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Personally, I use steam. I like having a digital copy and the cheap prices. Game priced too high? Wait a few months and watch the price fall like crazy. I just picked up Mount&Blade: Warband on a weekend sale for a 4th of it's price. My friends and I still trade games with each other. We just trade account information.
On another note, people already sell certain types of accounts off. I see no reason why I could not sell my entire steam account to another person. Does the used game market really disappear with digital distribution? Or does it just become digital as well?
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#293 |
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Daydreamer
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Downunder
Posts: 4,280
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"That is just what you feel, that isn't reality." - hamelekim |
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#294 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bothell, WA
Posts: 3,782
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#295 |
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 5,800
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I'll take you up on that!
If we agree to every 6* years, at least 2 more will still have physical media. And probably the next one after that. OTOH, we only have to check back in 2019 or so to see that you are wrong. ![]() If this is your industry as you say, then you know all about what happened to the PSPGo. Sony won't be making that mistake again for at least 3 generations. *Nintendo is currently the longest running consecutive producer of consoles now that Sega is out of the business so I will go by their average. So I say they decide when the next-gen starts. (It used to be Sega out of the gate first.) All US dates below: NES 1985, SNES 1991, N64 1996, GameCube 2001, Wii 2006, Wii-U 2012 So that is 6/5/5/5/6... |
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#296 |
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 5,800
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#297 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bothell, WA
Posts: 3,782
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#298 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bothell, WA
Posts: 3,782
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Console games as well.
Again, how are you in a position to know any of this? I have regular conversations with Sony and Microsoft about these issues. Sony is already allowing free games on PSN. MS has experimented with it and I'm sure you'll see some offering in the next 12 months. Also note MS just announced the $99 Xbox with subscription. This shows you the trend towards more of a service based model. |
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#299 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Finland
Posts: 3,175
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Microsoft started selling disposable software long ago, OEM Windows, OEM Office etc.
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#300 |
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Crone of War
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 6,879
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LOL! Do you know.
![]() Do tell me why the new Elder Scrolls, GTA, Assassin's Creed, Call of Duty, etc. would be free when people are spending like mad on those games.
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#301 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bothell, WA
Posts: 3,782
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Today they are spending like mad. The market dynamic is going to change, especially when they try to sell next-gen consoles.
They are simply riding out the current business model as far as they can but the writing is on the wall.
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Do you dispute that console transitions to be when major market disruptions can happen?
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Anyway I'm predicting the future here, not point out how the current market works. BTW the "console" with the biggest installed base is iOS. |
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#302 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Lake Oswego, OR
Posts: 4,487
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What? The Xbox Live Marketplace/Arcade has been a big deal getting bigger since before day one of the 360 (2004) - bigger than the services of either Sony or Nintendo.
Even in terms of "microtransactions" (one of the most abused terms ever - even Apple's App Store starts at $0.99), downloadable games on Xbox Live have had relatively small pieces of DLC available for $1-2.50 a piece for years now (see Pinball FX and it's sequel for my personal favorite examples; 2007 and 2010, respectively). Finally, once they changed the Dashboard from the "blades" interface to the "New Xbox Experience" (2008), downloadable content has been featured prominently every time anyone with a connected Xbox 360 fires up the console. |
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Where am I going to find a piece of metal? Here...in space...at this hour? |
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#303 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bothell, WA
Posts: 3,782
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#304 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Lake Oswego, OR
Posts: 4,487
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Really? And that's just Xbox Live Arcade, which is a single piece of the Xbox Live pie (doesn't include Gold subscriptions, retail game DLC, audio, video, or full downloadable games).
Whatever the overall profit numbers, claiming that Xbox and Xbox Live don't generate "ongoing revenue" is pretty ridiculous. |
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Where am I going to find a piece of metal? Here...in space...at this hour? |
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#305 |
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Master Poster
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 2,401
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#306 |
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Graduate Poster
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Lost and lonely...will you be my friend?
Posts: 1,728
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Wow, going back to something like cartridges? That's really retro!
Still, I'm not sure I believe it for the XBox though. Not being able to play DVDs on the system sort-of goes against Microsoft's previously stated goals of making the XBox an all-in-one home entertainment system. |
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A quick reminder to all participants that although incomprehensibility is not against the Membership Agreement, incivility is. Please try and remember this, and keep your exchanges polite and respectful. -arthwollipot |
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#307 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bothell, WA
Posts: 3,782
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I personally think the next Xbox will have a media drive but that it's possible it could be optional. Anyone remember the HD-DVD drive for the 360?
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#308 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bothell, WA
Posts: 3,782
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Xbox live generates $1.5B a year in gold subscription income. Plus a bunch of other money for getting people to use Netflix etc.
How much of this revenue is from actual downloadable games? Much harder number to find but it's not good compared to what they could be doing. |
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#309 |
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Daydreamer
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Downunder
Posts: 4,280
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__________________
"That is just what you feel, that isn't reality." - hamelekim |
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#310 |
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 5,800
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Please tell my why you think the PSP3000 continued to sell way more after the PSPGo was released. This goes to the very heart of what you are claiming is going to happen.
If you are referring to iPhones, iPads, and iPods, those would be called a handheld, not a console.... Also, I don't believe there are many AAA handheld games being released for them. Those are all on the 3DS and the Vita. which reminds me: You're in insider that talks to Sony and you claim the Vita is DOA??? The Vita is doing OK and the 3DS is doing great. Handhelds that use physical media aren't going to disappear for a long time. Kids like to trade their games just as much as they like to trade their Pokemons. |
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#311 |
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 5,800
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#312 |
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Master Poster
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 2,401
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#313 |
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Orthogonal Vector
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Tarrytown, NY
Posts: 26,434
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I think we need to accept that the future of all digital gaming is Farmville...
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Sufficiently advanced Woo is indistinguishable from Parody "There shall be no *poofing* in science" Paul C. Anagnostopoulos Force ***** on reasons back" Ben Franklin |
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#314 |
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Fiend God
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: In the details...
Posts: 28,528
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__________________
The Onmyouza Theatre, An unofficial international fanclub forum dedicated to the Japanese heavy metal band Onmyo-Za: "In the interests of time and space, it is not unreasonable to cite one point at a time. Citing 30 is the equivalent of citing none. Obviously." - Robert Prey "Physical evidence must be observed and interpreted by witnesses which makes it subjective and subject to mistakes and to fraud." - Robert Prey |
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#315 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bothell, WA
Posts: 3,782
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Please define AAA for me.
Anyway that's why I put "console" in quotes. It's not considered a console yet. Would you consider an Apple TV with the ability to play apps to be a console? Because that's what MS/Sony are going to have to compete with for the next generation.
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Anyway we are getting seriously off topic here. Bottom line, there is serious shake-up coming in the games market and it's just begun. The real changes on the console side will begin with next-gen positioning. All online all the time is going to be pushed. Discs and retail sales will slowly be deemphasized as they make little to no sense. People without internet connections will probably be SoL on next-gen as a customer without internet generates significantly less revenue anyway. Sometimes I wish I didn't want to keep my identity secret here because I actually do have real credibility in the game world. But I would rather steer away from this topic so I don't give away too much. |
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#316 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bothell, WA
Posts: 3,782
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#317 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bothell, WA
Posts: 3,782
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#318 |
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Lackey
Administrator / JREF Forum Liaison
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: South East, UK
Posts: 64,804
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Sadly in a way I think it will be true, I can easily see the game market becoming (in terms of revenue and gamers) more mass market - as you point out this is really already the case if you look at the likes of iOS and Android devices. However I think there will still be the "big" games, shifting several millions of units but you are correct about the future being account based - whether "mass market" or "big" - rather than a physical SKU.
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If it were all so simple! If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and destroy them. But the line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being. And who is willing to destroy a piece of his own heart? - Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn 1918-2008
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#319 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bothell, WA
Posts: 3,782
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Yeah, the trends are pointing in a mass market direction for sure. We do also have to realize though that once someone starts gaming they tend to become more sophisticated in their tastes over time. Hopefully the farmville people can be converted to something that isn't just a slot machine in disguise.
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#320 |
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 5,800
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The Vita is not exactly DOA. It didn't look so good for the 3DS a few months after it's release last year either, and look at how that has changed! It's doing great now.
PS Vita Worldwide Sales Reach 1.8 Million Units, Sony Predicts Sales of Around 10 Million This Year DOA huh!? Let's not forget you said this: That's just crazy! The last several years were the biggest years for handhelds in history. They are still doing great. The 3DS is also doing great, even better than the Vita. I believe you have 30 years in the future confused with 3 years in the future. Even if you were the President Of Nintendo it wouldn't make you any less wrong about those two handheld statements you just made. You're wrong about how well handhelds are doing just like you're wrong about them dropping physical media in consoles. Forget about all that. There are important points that I do not believe you have addressed. #1 At least 20 to 25 percent of the console owners in the US have a 5 gb monthly cap on internet. You can't even download 1 game with that. Another small chunk, maybe 5 percent, don't even have internet. Why would any of the big 3 (Sony, Nintendo, Microsoft) go from a model where a huge chunk of their users can buy theoretically hundreds of games per month to a model where those users can buy ONE game per month??? More ISPs have been going to capped internet, not the other way around. I don't see rural areas getting high speed DSL or Cable for at least a decade. That's not even counting kids in urban areas who's parents don't want them using up the internet all day. #2 Even for the people in cities that have unlimited internet, it still takes at least a few hours to download a 7gb game. Why would the big 3 change to a model where instead of being able to buy any number of games per day, people can only buy a few. It just doesn't make any sense business wise. Not having physical media is not going to happen for at least 3 console generations. #3 The Big 3 are super paranoid about losing their users to the other 2. If one of them stopped having physical media, then the other 2 would gain those users. What in the world. Surely you didn't already forget the bet we have? Bolding mine: I'll be bumping this in 2018 or 19. When ever the next Nintendo Wii-U is released. Why do I get the feeling you will say: "Oh I was just talking about discs, not physical media in general." Which reminds me: DVDs used to be fairly expensive too. Also I said they will switch to SSD or SD type memory cards. You can get a good 8GB flash drive for $15 or less now. They will get cheaper. ---- Back to NewtonTrino, I noticed you quoted and answered the 2nd and 3rd parts of my previous post but not the 1st part. The part that directly related to a real-world test of what happens when you drop physical media: Now that was something that was DOA! The PSPGo was the biggist flop since the Virtua Boy. Sony won't be making that mistake again for at least 2 to 3 generations, be it on console or on handheld. Those 2 sentences do not match. I hope I don't have to tell you that basically all the AAA handheld games are on 3DS and Vita and not on iPhones. |
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