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Old 8th May 2012, 04:41 AM   #281
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Originally Posted by Laeke View Post
On the whole it is very clear that many important actors of the sector would very much like to reduce the secondhand market, and that the general trend of the industry is clearly going towards that.
But why ? What's the harm of selling a game you already paid for ?
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Old 8th May 2012, 04:45 AM   #282
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
But why ? What's the harm of selling a game you already paid for ?
Because the game company don't get any money from the secondhand sale. If secondhand sales couldn't occur, then everyone would have to buy their games from the game company instead of buying secondhand.
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Old 8th May 2012, 05:26 AM   #283
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But I don't think they will. If you want it badly, you buy it when it first comes out. If you don't care, you might wait until the fanfare dies down then grab it off the clearance table or secondhand. They overestimate the desirability of their product. Rather than buying it new, the indifferent won't buy it at all.
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Old 8th May 2012, 06:47 AM   #284
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
But why ? What's the harm of selling a game you already paid for ?
People already expressed my feelings.

As Lolly said, it's not even sure that closed systems & proprietary formats are even desirable in the long term for the industry. The lessons of the VHS/Betamax and BR/HDDVD wars seems to be that a shared inter-operable platform (with a modest royalty fee to the patent holder) have tremendous advantages for consumers (reduces the number of device to own; reduces the prices on the reading devices through mass production and increased competition; much more convenient to use, lend and sell) but also does wonders for the overall diffusion of cultural products and thus is profitable to artists and producers on a whole.

Yet at each and every technological advance, you see major companies trying to impose proprietary tools. It is not totally illegitimate that they worry over retaining control over the works they have the rights to, but it constantly translates into power plays and abuse. I think the rationale is that the prospect of imposing a closed monopoly is too lucrative to pass upon.
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Old 8th May 2012, 09:19 AM   #285
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Originally Posted by xtifr View Post
Maybe in several years.
Worldwide online gaming is huge. Emerging markets never got in the habit of buying discs anyway.

Quote:
The hard-core gamers will go for it, but too many people want something they can hold in their hand.
There won't be a choice.

Quote:
Granny wants to buy her favorite grandchild something concrete.
They'll sell gift cards etc. at retail. She can still put something in little johnny's stocking.

Quote:
Cousin Joe doesn't want to get home internet access because he wants to protect his teenaged kids.
Yeah I'm sure this guy spends huge money on games. not.

Quote:
Then there's the increasing move towards metered Internet access--with more GB limits, people are going to be less interested in downloading games, especially when they're pushing their caps with Netflix alone. Download-only will hurt the bottom line, far more than any game company can afford.
Games are pretty small compared to watching a lot of Netflix.

Downloadable games are the most popular on earth, far surpassing disc based games if you look worldwide.

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I'm sure that in the long run, you're right. It's the only sane approach. As a Linux user, I've gotten all my OS and app updates over the Internet for well over a decade now. But in the short term, it's going to be very complicated.
In the short term retail will slowly wither away. It may be a decade before retail completely dies.

Quote:
Steam gets away with draconian DRM because they have really good customer-friendly policies. The big guys aren't like that. They're used to dictating terms, and they don't want to meet the users halfway. If they try their usual tricks combined with download-only policies, they're going to discover pushback that Steam isn't facing. DRM does not work. CSS is history, BluRay is broken, the HDMI master passcode has been posted to the Internet. The only reason movies still sell is because the industry has discovered a little trick: give the customers what they want at a reasonable price, and they'll buy it. And what customers want is discs and streaming. And part of the deal with discs is that you can sell them when you're done!
DRM is irrelevant. That problem is now behind us because we tie peoples game to their account and run everything on servers. You can protect an online game a lot easier than protecting a movie for example.

Anyway I mostly agree here. The platform holders are the ones who are going to make the money and that's not EA.

Quote:
If the games industry can't figure out what customers want and how to deliver it, we're going to see a shakeout in that industry at a scale that hasn't been seen since Atari buried millions of Pac-Man carts in the desert. And it's not going to be customers, or used-game sales, or pirates that will gut the industry. It's stupidity at the top.
That shakeout is already happening. Take a look at EA's last 9 quarters and their current stock price.

Then look at Zynga and the huge number of Asian companies that are cleaning up. There was a rumor last week that Nexon was going to buy EA for example.

Bottom line, the shakeup is happening now.
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Old 8th May 2012, 06:03 PM   #286
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Originally Posted by NewtonTrino View Post
There won't be a choice.
There's only the choice not to buy at all.
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Old 8th May 2012, 06:17 PM   #287
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Originally Posted by Lolly View Post
There's only the choice not to buy at all.
And that will be what I end up choosing. I want to play the game first then buy it. If I can rent it I will buy more games.
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Old 8th May 2012, 08:34 PM   #288
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Originally Posted by NewtonTrino View Post
Downloadable games are the most popular on earth, far surpassing disc based games if you look worldwide.
This thread is about console games. Specifically Sony consoles. That isn't even remotely close to being true for console games, including worldwide.

As I pointed out before, they aren't going to stop producing actual discs for the consoles when a good quarter of the US doesn't have sufficient internet access to download games. Even some of the urban areas are getting their internet capped. It's pretty hard to justify a 5gb video game download if you are capped.

We aren't talking about 2mb angry birds downloads here.

Give it a few (console) generations and then maybe it will happen.
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Old 8th May 2012, 08:47 PM   #289
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Originally Posted by Lolly View Post
There's only the choice not to buy at all.
Which again won't matter because the games will be free anyway.
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Old 8th May 2012, 09:03 PM   #290
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Originally Posted by OnlyTellsTruths View Post
This thread is about console games. Specifically Sony consoles. That isn't even remotely close to being true for console games, including worldwide.
First off console games are a small portion of the worldwide market. They never took off in places like China, Russia, Korea, Brazil, Turkey etc.

The games market has been seeing insane growth in those countries and most of them have never seen a console. So keep in mind I'm looking at this from a global business perspective.

Also keep in mind that consoles work on cycles. Each cycle is a time when major market shakeups happen. For example in the PS2 generation Sony ruled all. PS3 has done ok but Wii and Xbox360 are both more successful. The first XBox was just a huge money loser and MS were basically begging people to put games on their box.

At the end of the day they are all going to be facing a serious market reality when they try to ship their next-gen boxes. There is huge opportunity for new players to emerge in the "console" space including players like Apple and Google. Those companies are *not* going to be selling disk based games and it's very difficult to argue that selling disks makes sense going forward. For "next-gen" (ps4, xbox720) they are going to have the upfront barrier of getting the consoles into peoples living rooms. But when you compare even the successful consoles to the market share of something like iPhone you realize just how small the "core" gaming market is. Bottom line the "next-gen" boxes are going to look a lot more like an iphone than vice versa. Digital delivery with an app store type model dramatically improves the market situation on almost every level. Retail is too slow, too expensive (and lacking in price elasticity) to compete in the long term.

Quote:
As I pointed out before, they aren't going to stop producing actual discs for the consoles when a good quarter of the US doesn't have sufficient internet access to download games. Even some of the urban areas are getting their internet capped. It's pretty hard to justify a 5gb video game download if you are capped.
It's entirely possible that online connectivity is going to be required for any next-gen consoles. It has too many advantages and the portion of the market without connectivity doesn't tend to spend a lot of money on games anyway.

Now that's not to say they won't support disks. I do expect the current business model to survive into the next generation but it will slowly fade away. However the disk based games will only be the blockbusters that can sell 5-10M+ units and there won't be a ton of them. From an investment standpoint the ROI on them is too at risk compared to the upfront cost. So you'll see a lot of sequels and big bets by some of the companies this makes sense for (budgets for these games will be in the $30-$150M range). For everyone else working on titles that downloadable makes the most sense. In fact downloadable already beats the traditional market if you look at the entire world.

Quote:
We aren't talking about 2mb angry birds downloads here.
Internet infrastructure continues to get better. If you can watch a movie on your connection downloading a game isn't a big deal. Streaming technology also allow you to play a game and only download the bits you see.

Basically in reality this is just a non-issue. Most of the emerging markets actually have better internet infrastructure than the US. I was talking to the CEO of a company that makes iphone games and all of their games are over the 50MB limit for downloading 3g and they have millions and millions of customers.

Quote:
Give it a few (console) generations and then maybe it will happen.
Disks will last into the next console generation and then they'll be deader than dead. Feel free to revisit this thread over the years and we'll see.

Keep in mind I am in a position to know a ton of non-public information. This is my industry and I've got my finger on the pulse of it.
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Old 8th May 2012, 09:05 PM   #291
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
And that will be what I end up choosing. I want to play the game first then buy it. If I can rent it I will buy more games.
Most games are going to be free to play anyway. So you can try it, play it as long as you like and only spend money if you feel like it.
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Old 9th May 2012, 06:05 PM   #292
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Personally, I use steam. I like having a digital copy and the cheap prices. Game priced too high? Wait a few months and watch the price fall like crazy. I just picked up Mount&Blade: Warband on a weekend sale for a 4th of it's price. My friends and I still trade games with each other. We just trade account information.

On another note, people already sell certain types of accounts off. I see no reason why I could not sell my entire steam account to another person. Does the used game market really disappear with digital distribution? Or does it just become digital as well?
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Old 9th May 2012, 08:11 PM   #293
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Originally Posted by newtontrino View Post
most multiplayer network games are going to be free to play anyway. So you can try it, play it as long as you like and only spend money if you feel like it.
Fixed that for you.
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Old 9th May 2012, 09:04 PM   #294
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Originally Posted by Brian-M View Post
Fixed that for you.
Not sure I agree it will just be multiplayer games.
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Old 10th May 2012, 03:35 AM   #295
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Originally Posted by NewtonTrino View Post
Disks will last into the next console generation and then they'll be deader than dead. Feel free to revisit this thread over the years and we'll see.
I'll take you up on that!

If we agree to every 6* years, at least 2 more will still have physical media. And probably the next one after that. OTOH, we only have to check back in 2019 or so to see that you are wrong.

If this is your industry as you say, then you know all about what happened to the PSPGo.

Sony won't be making that mistake again for at least 3 generations.

*Nintendo is currently the longest running consecutive producer of consoles now that Sega is out of the business so I will go by their average. So I say they decide when the next-gen starts. (It used to be Sega out of the gate first.)

All US dates below:
NES 1985, SNES 1991, N64 1996, GameCube 2001, Wii 2006, Wii-U 2012

So that is 6/5/5/5/6...
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Old 10th May 2012, 03:36 AM   #296
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Originally Posted by NewtonTrino View Post
Most games are going to be free to play anyway. So you can try it, play it as long as you like and only spend money if you feel like it.
If you are talking about console games, that will never happen. At least not for several generations.

If you are talking about computer games again, please let me remind you that this thread is about console games.
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Old 10th May 2012, 11:52 AM   #297
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Originally Posted by OnlyTellsTruths View Post
I'll take you up on that!

If we agree to every 6* years, at least 2 more will still have physical media. And probably the next one after that. OTOH, we only have to check back in 2019 or so to see that you are wrong.

If this is your industry as you say, then you know all about what happened to the PSPGo.

Sony won't be making that mistake again for at least 3 generations.

*Nintendo is currently the longest running consecutive producer of consoles now that Sega is out of the business so I will go by their average. So I say they decide when the next-gen starts. (It used to be Sega out of the gate first.)

All US dates below:
NES 1985, SNES 1991, N64 1996, GameCube 2001, Wii 2006, Wii-U 2012

So that is 6/5/5/5/6...

Sony just released the VITA. It's DOA. Handheld consoles are basically done at this point. iPhone has utterly destroyed that market.
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Old 10th May 2012, 11:55 AM   #298
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Originally Posted by OnlyTellsTruths View Post
If you are talking about console games, that will never happen. At least not for several generations.

If you are talking about computer games again, please let me remind you that this thread is about console games.
Console games as well.

Again, how are you in a position to know any of this? I have regular conversations with Sony and Microsoft about these issues. Sony is already allowing free games on PSN. MS has experimented with it and I'm sure you'll see some offering in the next 12 months.

Also note MS just announced the $99 Xbox with subscription. This shows you the trend towards more of a service based model.
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Old 10th May 2012, 12:33 PM   #299
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Microsoft started selling disposable software long ago, OEM Windows, OEM Office etc.
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Old 10th May 2012, 12:36 PM   #300
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Originally Posted by NewtonTrino View Post
Console games as well.

Again, how are you in a position to know any of this? I have regular conversations with Sony and Microsoft about these issues.
LOL! Do you know.

Do tell me why the new Elder Scrolls, GTA, Assassin's Creed, Call of Duty, etc. would be free when people are spending like mad on those games.

Quote:
Sony is already allowing free games on PSN. MS has experimented with it and I'm sure you'll see some offering in the next 12 months.
Oh wow. Sony's free games, yeah, a sign of the times indeed! All two of them. Tiny downloadable games, not full retail games. Derp.

Quote:
Also note MS just announced the $99 Xbox with subscription. This shows you the trend towards more of a service based model.
Bahaha... That thing where it's actually costlier in the long run than buying it normally? That thing with only 4 gigs of disk space, which means a downloadable-game approach to it will fail massively (I think Borderlands's DLC alone would fill it up)?
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Old 10th May 2012, 02:29 PM   #301
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Originally Posted by Morrigan View Post
LOL! Do you know.

Do tell me why the new Elder Scrolls, GTA, Assassin's Creed, Call of Duty, etc. would be free when people are spending like mad on those games.
Today they are spending like mad. The market dynamic is going to change, especially when they try to sell next-gen consoles.

They are simply riding out the current business model as far as they can but the writing is on the wall.

Quote:
Oh wow. Sony's free games, yeah, a sign of the times indeed! All two of them. Tiny downloadable games, not full retail games. Derp.
I'm not saying we're there yet, I'm saying this is where things are going.

Do you dispute that console transitions to be when major market disruptions can happen?

Quote:
Bahaha... That thing where it's actually costlier in the long run than buying it normally? That thing with only 4 gigs of disk space, which means a downloadable-game approach to it will fail massively (I think Borderlands's DLC alone would fill it up)?
Xbox isn't pushing downloadable hard yet. They are actually the company that's furthest behind on business model.

Anyway I'm predicting the future here, not point out how the current market works.

BTW the "console" with the biggest installed base is iOS.
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Old 10th May 2012, 02:50 PM   #302
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Originally Posted by NewtonTrino View Post
Xbox isn't pushing downloadable hard yet. They are actually the company that's furthest behind on business model.
What? The Xbox Live Marketplace/Arcade has been a big deal getting bigger since before day one of the 360 (2004) - bigger than the services of either Sony or Nintendo.

Even in terms of "microtransactions" (one of the most abused terms ever - even Apple's App Store starts at $0.99), downloadable games on Xbox Live have had relatively small pieces of DLC available for $1-2.50 a piece for years now (see Pinball FX and it's sequel for my personal favorite examples; 2007 and 2010, respectively).

Finally, once they changed the Dashboard from the "blades" interface to the "New Xbox Experience" (2008), downloadable content has been featured prominently every time anyone with a connected Xbox 360 fires up the console.
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Old 10th May 2012, 03:17 PM   #303
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Originally Posted by Babbylonian View Post
What? The Xbox Live Marketplace/Arcade has been a big deal getting bigger since before day one of the 360 (2004) - bigger than the services of either Sony or Nintendo.

Even in terms of "microtransactions" (one of the most abused terms ever - even Apple's App Store starts at $0.99), downloadable games on Xbox Live have had relatively small pieces of DLC available for $1-2.50 a piece for years now (see Pinball FX and it's sequel for my personal favorite examples; 2007 and 2010, respectively).

Finally, once they changed the Dashboard from the "blades" interface to the "New Xbox Experience" (2008), downloadable content has been featured prominently every time anyone with a connected Xbox 360 fires up the console.
And they are still massively behind in terms of actually generating ongoing revenue from that.
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Old 10th May 2012, 03:47 PM   #304
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Originally Posted by NewtonTrino View Post
And they are still massively behind in terms of actually generating ongoing revenue from that.
Really? And that's just Xbox Live Arcade, which is a single piece of the Xbox Live pie (doesn't include Gold subscriptions, retail game DLC, audio, video, or full downloadable games).

Whatever the overall profit numbers, claiming that Xbox and Xbox Live don't generate "ongoing revenue" is pretty ridiculous.
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Old 10th May 2012, 06:07 PM   #305
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Originally Posted by OnlyTellsTruths View Post
I'll take you up on that!

If we agree to every 6* years, at least 2 more will still have physical media. And probably the next one after that. OTOH, we only have to check back in 2019 or so to see that you are wrong.
Just a rumour at this stage but I think you’re exaggerating the life expectancy of physical media:

Quote:
There have already been plenty of rumours that the next generation Xbox will be download-only but the latest suggestion is that it will be slightly less extreme, and simply won’t use any kind of disc drive.

Nicknamed Xbox 720, in the absence of any official term from Microsoft, according to trade paper MCV the new console will not use DVDs, Blu-rays or any other kind of disc format. Instead it will use an ‘interchangeable solid-state card storage’, i.e. a flash card such as a SD card or similar.

With the console inevitably due to offer the majority of its games for download as well, it seems as if the set-up for the Xbox 720 could be very similar to the PS Vita – which uses a propriety memory card format but also has most games available to buy via the PlayStation Store.

MCV’s source claims that the new console will be out in 2013, which is what most analysts have been predicting for some time now. But they don’t know when it will be announced. (It’s still 50/50 as to whether Microsoft will mention it at E3 in June.)

http://www.metro.co.uk/tech/games/89...#ixzz1uWEVs41Y
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Old 10th May 2012, 07:29 PM   #306
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Wow, going back to something like cartridges? That's really retro!

Still, I'm not sure I believe it for the XBox though. Not being able to play DVDs on the system sort-of goes against Microsoft's previously stated goals of making the XBox an all-in-one home entertainment system.
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Old 10th May 2012, 07:37 PM   #307
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I personally think the next Xbox will have a media drive but that it's possible it could be optional. Anyone remember the HD-DVD drive for the 360?
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Old 10th May 2012, 07:39 PM   #308
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Originally Posted by Babbylonian View Post
Really? And that's just Xbox Live Arcade, which is a single piece of the Xbox Live pie (doesn't include Gold subscriptions, retail game DLC, audio, video, or full downloadable games).

Whatever the overall profit numbers, claiming that Xbox and Xbox Live don't generate "ongoing revenue" is pretty ridiculous.
Xbox live generates $1.5B a year in gold subscription income. Plus a bunch of other money for getting people to use Netflix etc.

How much of this revenue is from actual downloadable games? Much harder number to find but it's not good compared to what they could be doing.
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Old 10th May 2012, 11:10 PM   #309
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Originally Posted by Weak Kitten View Post
Wow, going back to something like cartridges? That's really retro!
Probably something like the Nintendo DSi uses.
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Old 11th May 2012, 04:52 AM   #310
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Originally Posted by NewtonTrino View Post
Console games as well.

Again, how are you in a position to know any of this? I have regular conversations with Sony and Microsoft about these issues. Sony is already allowing free games on PSN. MS has experimented with it and I'm sure you'll see some offering in the next 12 months.

Also note MS just announced the $99 Xbox with subscription. This shows you the trend towards more of a service based model.
Please tell my why you think the PSP3000 continued to sell way more after the PSPGo was released. This goes to the very heart of what you are claiming is going to happen.

Originally Posted by NewtonTrino View Post
BTW the "console" with the biggest installed base is iOS.
If you are referring to iPhones, iPads, and iPods, those would be called a handheld, not a console.... Also, I don't believe there are many AAA handheld games being released for them. Those are all on the 3DS and the Vita. which reminds me:

Originally Posted by NewtonTrino View Post
Sony just released the VITA. It's DOA. Handheld consoles are basically done at this point. iPhone has utterly destroyed that market.

You're in insider that talks to Sony and you claim the Vita is DOA??? The Vita is doing OK and the 3DS is doing great. Handhelds that use physical media aren't going to disappear for a long time. Kids like to trade their games just as much as they like to trade their Pokemons.
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Old 11th May 2012, 04:53 AM   #311
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Originally Posted by Weak Kitten View Post
Wow, going back to something like cartridges? That's really retro!
Not exactly retro.... Solid State Drives are a step up. PCs are switching from old disc based hard drives to SSDs too.

Consoles switching their physical media from optical discs to solid state drives or SD type cards would not be very surprising.
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Old 11th May 2012, 06:38 AM   #312
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Originally Posted by OnlyTellsTruths View Post
Consoles switching their physical media from optical discs to solid state drives or SD type cards would not be very surprising.
I think it's surprising. SSDs aren't exactly as cheap as DVDs to manufacture.
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Old 11th May 2012, 06:45 AM   #313
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I think we need to accept that the future of all digital gaming is Farmville...
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Old 11th May 2012, 06:59 AM   #314
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Originally Posted by Brian-M View Post
Because the game company don't get any money from the secondhand sale. If secondhand sales couldn't occur, then everyone would have to buy their games from the game company instead of buying secondhand.
I see. Well, I always buy my stuff new unless I absolutely can't find it factory sealed.
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Old 11th May 2012, 07:37 AM   #315
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Originally Posted by OnlyTellsTruths View Post
If you are referring to iPhones, iPads, and iPods, those would be called a handheld, not a console.... Also, I don't believe there are many AAA handheld games being released for them. Those are all on the 3DS and the Vita. which reminds me:
Please define AAA for me.

Anyway that's why I put "console" in quotes. It's not considered a console yet. Would you consider an Apple TV with the ability to play apps to be a console? Because that's what MS/Sony are going to have to compete with for the next generation.


Quote:
You're in insider that talks to Sony and you claim the Vita is DOA???
Because it is DOA.

Anyway we are getting seriously off topic here.

Bottom line, there is serious shake-up coming in the games market and it's just begun. The real changes on the console side will begin with next-gen positioning.

All online all the time is going to be pushed. Discs and retail sales will slowly be deemphasized as they make little to no sense. People without internet connections will probably be SoL on next-gen as a customer without internet generates significantly less revenue anyway.

Sometimes I wish I didn't want to keep my identity secret here because I actually do have real credibility in the game world. But I would rather steer away from this topic so I don't give away too much.
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Old 11th May 2012, 07:39 AM   #316
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
I think we need to accept that the future of all digital gaming is Farmville...
God I hope not.
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Old 11th May 2012, 07:46 AM   #317
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Originally Posted by OnlyTellsTruths View Post
Not exactly retro.... Solid State Drives are a step up. PCs are switching from old disc based hard drives to SSDs too.

Consoles switching their physical media from optical discs to solid state drives or SD type cards would not be very surprising.
Actually this gives me a better idea. You seem to think you know where the market is going.

Please describe to me what you think the game market looks like in 5 years.
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Old 11th May 2012, 07:54 AM   #318
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Originally Posted by NewtonTrino View Post
God I hope not.
Sadly in a way I think it will be true, I can easily see the game market becoming (in terms of revenue and gamers) more mass market - as you point out this is really already the case if you look at the likes of iOS and Android devices. However I think there will still be the "big" games, shifting several millions of units but you are correct about the future being account based - whether "mass market" or "big" - rather than a physical SKU.
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Old 11th May 2012, 07:02 PM   #319
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Sadly in a way I think it will be true, I can easily see the game market becoming (in terms of revenue and gamers) more mass market - as you point out this is really already the case if you look at the likes of iOS and Android devices. However I think there will still be the "big" games, shifting several millions of units but you are correct about the future being account based - whether "mass market" or "big" - rather than a physical SKU.
Yeah, the trends are pointing in a mass market direction for sure. We do also have to realize though that once someone starts gaming they tend to become more sophisticated in their tastes over time. Hopefully the farmville people can be converted to something that isn't just a slot machine in disguise.
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Old 11th May 2012, 07:03 PM   #320
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Originally Posted by NewtonTrino View Post
Because it is DOA.
The Vita is not exactly DOA. It didn't look so good for the 3DS a few months after it's release last year either, and look at how that has changed! It's doing great now.

PS Vita Worldwide Sales Reach 1.8 Million Units, Sony Predicts Sales of Around 10 Million This Year

DOA huh!?

Let's not forget you said this:

Originally Posted by NewtonTrino View Post
Handheld consoles are basically done at this point.
That's just crazy! The last several years were the biggest years for handhelds in history. They are still doing great. The 3DS is also doing great, even better than the Vita. I believe you have 30 years in the future confused with 3 years in the future.

Even if you were the President Of Nintendo it wouldn't make you any less wrong about those two handheld statements you just made.

You're wrong about how well handhelds are doing just like you're wrong about them dropping physical media in consoles.

Forget about all that.

There are important points that I do not believe you have addressed.

#1 At least 20 to 25 percent of the console owners in the US have a 5 gb monthly cap on internet. You can't even download 1 game with that. Another small chunk, maybe 5 percent, don't even have internet.

Why would any of the big 3 (Sony, Nintendo, Microsoft) go from a model where a huge chunk of their users can buy theoretically hundreds of games per month to a model where those users can buy ONE game per month???

More ISPs have been going to capped internet, not the other way around. I don't see rural areas getting high speed DSL or Cable for at least a decade.

That's not even counting kids in urban areas who's parents don't want them using up the internet all day.

#2 Even for the people in cities that have unlimited internet, it still takes at least a few hours to download a 7gb game. Why would the big 3 change to a model where instead of being able to buy any number of games per day, people can only buy a few.

It just doesn't make any sense business wise. Not having physical media is not going to happen for at least 3 console generations.

#3 The Big 3 are super paranoid about losing their users to the other 2. If one of them stopped having physical media, then the other 2 would gain those users.

Originally Posted by NewtonTrino View Post
Actually this gives me a better idea. You seem to think you know where the market is going.

Please describe to me what you think the game market looks like in 5 years.
What in the world. Surely you didn't already forget the bet we have? Bolding mine:

Originally Posted by NewtonTrino View Post
Disks will last into the next console generation and then they'll be deader than dead. Feel free to revisit this thread over the years and we'll see.
I'll be bumping this in 2018 or 19. When ever the next Nintendo Wii-U is released.

Why do I get the feeling you will say: "Oh I was just talking about discs, not physical media in general."

Which reminds me:

Originally Posted by Sceptic-PK View Post
I think it's surprising. SSDs aren't exactly as cheap as DVDs to manufacture.
DVDs used to be fairly expensive too. Also I said they will switch to SSD or SD type memory cards.

You can get a good 8GB flash drive for $15 or less now. They will get cheaper.

----

Back to NewtonTrino,

I noticed you quoted and answered the 2nd and 3rd parts of my previous post but not the 1st part. The part that directly related to a real-world test of what happens when you drop physical media:

Originally Posted by OnlyTellsTruths View Post
Please tell my why you think the PSP3000 continued to sell way more after the PSPGo was released. This goes to the very heart of what you are claiming is going to happen.
Now that was something that was DOA! The PSPGo was the biggist flop since the Virtua Boy. Sony won't be making that mistake again for at least 2 to 3 generations, be it on console or on handheld.

Originally Posted by NewtonTrino View Post
Please define AAA for me.

<snip>

Sometimes I wish I didn't want to keep my identity secret here because I actually do have real credibility in the game world.
Those 2 sentences do not match.

I hope I don't have to tell you that basically all the AAA handheld games are on 3DS and Vita and not on iPhones.
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