Sony moves to ban used games - Page 10

Sceptic-PK · 14th May 2012, 04:09 AM

Originally Posted by Fishstick

*assuming you watch <720p. A 100gb cap is very easy to break if you watch a normal amount of either in a decent-enough quallity to warrant not-buying physical media.

A season (say 10 - 15 episodes) of 20 minute shows in 720p is easily 6 - 8Gb.
A season of Game of Thrones in 1080p is > 40Gb.

10-15 episodes is more than 2 months of bandwidth. Sure, if you're grabbing them all at once then it might be an issue, so you don't I guess.

Originally Posted by Fishstick

If you use that same connection to also download games (where >5Gb is no longer rare for mainstream games), listen to music streams and watch youtube, a 100gb cap is surprisingly small.

If that's your thing then you do what I do, go with an ISP that offers free bandwidth from Steam

(most of the time, grrr). I unfortunately don't know of any hi-def music streams for the style of music I'm into (at least, not for free) but yeah I guess that could add up depending on your usage.

Fishstick · 14th May 2012, 04:45 AM

Originally Posted by Sceptic-PK

10-15 episodes is more than 2 months of bandwidth. Sure, if you're grabbing them all at once then it might be an issue, so you don't I guess.

If that's your thing then you do what I do, go with an ISP that offers free bandwidth from Steam

(most of the time, grrr). I unfortunately don't know of any hi-def music streams for the style of music I'm into (at least, not for free) but yeah I guess that could add up depending on your usage.

And if there's no such ISP in your area/country? Or you use another service like D2D/GoG/etc? I download Steam games (and their updates!) and listen to Spotify while gaming, so my BW usage adds up pretty fast. What works for me or for you doesnt automatically work for everyone.

Sceptic-PK · 14th May 2012, 04:52 AM

Originally Posted by Fishstick

What works for me or for you doesnt automatically work for everyone.

Of course not (but GoG games are hardly going to bother the bandwidth cap). No reason to use D2D, other than they suck and too expensive, too many regional limitations for those outside NA.

Fishstick · 14th May 2012, 05:08 AM

Ugh. Those were just off-the cuff examples. Replace GoG/D2D with 'linux sources' and 'cloud files' or 'uploading a lot of photos', then. The main point is that you can't gauge someone's expected bandwidth consumption by applying your own unique situation.

Sceptic-PK · 14th May 2012, 05:18 AM

Originally Posted by Fishstick

Ugh. Those were just off-the cuff examples. Replace GoG/D2D with 'linux sources' and 'cloud files' or 'uploading a lot of photos', then. The main point is that you can't gauge someone's expected bandwidth consumption by applying your own unique situation.

I understand perfectly what you're saying, I'm just stringing you along because of your silly, irrelevant questions. Implicit to your statements is that no amount of bandwidth is ever enough. Even if we accept that meaningless position, we do what we always do when faced with finite resources, we prioritise. There are only a handful of TV shows that absolutely must have full HD, there is only so much music we must absolutely have at 320 or higher. We can only play so many games each month. If someone is unable to manage 100GB/month for their popular culture needs, then they're doing it wrong (or just don't get out almost ever).

OnlyTellsTruths · 15th May 2012, 03:42 AM

Originally Posted by Sceptic-PK

Even if we accept that meaningless position, we do what we always do when faced with finite resources, we prioritise.

I believe that is the key point. Why would any of the Big 3 go from a model where the customer can buy basically as many games as they can afford, to a model where the customer has to "prioritize".

Sure they will have downloading as an option, why wouldn't they... But exclusively?? Not until bandwidth gets a whole lot better (and cheaper).

Corsair 115 · 18th May 2012, 11:46 AM

Originally Posted by OnlyTellsTruths

There are still tons of people with DVD players who are too poor or too lazy to use Netflix.

That latter part appears to be backwards. Netflix (at least, it's online streaming service) is designed for lazy people like myself. No need to leave the home, just turn on the computer or Xbox, start up the Netflix app, and I can start watching.

As to poor, Neflix in Canada costs $7.99 per month. Basic cable TV 'round these parts runs about $30 per month. If you start adding various specialty channel packages the cost can easily reach $60 per month, if not more. An Xbox Live Gold subscription can be had for about $5 per month, so Neflix plus Xbox Live comes to about $13 per month, less than half of what basic cable TV costs.

Morrigan · 20th May 2012, 12:51 AM

Why are phone games compared to handheld games? They don't address the same markets at all. Iphone games are limited to a touch screen. Fine for games like Angry Birds, but go ahead and try playing Castlevania or Metroid with that...

Alan · 20th May 2012, 01:20 AM

Originally Posted by Morrigan

Why are phone games compared to handheld games? They don't address the same markets at all. Iphone games are limited to a touch screen. Fine for games like Angry Birds, but go ahead and try playing Castlevania or Metroid with that...

The Vita is a good mix. Touchscreen, back touchpad, SIXAXIS, buttons, two analogue sticks, etc.

OnlyTellsTruths · 21st May 2012, 05:02 PM

Coincidentally, the new issue of GameInformer (available at all GameStops) has a decent article on the very subjects in this thread. It is on page 20 and is titled "Treasure Hunting: How Game Makers are Getting your Money".

How long will physical media last and how they want to stop used games.

I typed this out, so any errors are probably mine.

Quote:

For many gamers, the familiar structure of buying a game at a store and bringing home a box with a disc remains the go-to path for delivery. This proven and profitable model remains the primary monetization avenue for the most high-end games.

<snip>

According to Jesse Divnich, who tracks industry trends as vice president of analysis with EEDAR, retail games remain a powerful revenue stream, and are likely to remain that way for many years to come. "The retail model will always exist for the foreseeable future," Divnich says. "Physical software sales account for $25 billion annually in the western markets, which is nearly four time more than several emerging markets such as social and mobile. We do believe, however, that the physical sales market is slowly declining. We see the retail model, which can support much higher price points, to continue to be a medium for triple-A video games." The likely migration away from retail could become increasingly apparent with the lower-tier products. "Middle-of-the-road titles, like movie-based games, 5- to 7-rate games, etc.are likely to switch to other markets, if not disappear entirely," Divnich says.

<snip>

Anecdotally, Neilsen's SoundScan report found that the music industry still sold over 220 million compact discs in 2011, even with the seemingly ubiquitous presence of downloadable tracks... <snip>

It then goes on to talk about used games and other related issues.

devnull · 22nd May 2012, 12:31 AM

Originally Posted by Dinwar

Add pirating to the mix, and you get a nightmare for any large gaming studio.

Nonsense, but this issue isnt about piracy at all anyway.

NewtonTrino · 22nd May 2012, 08:40 AM

Originally Posted by OnlyTellsTruths

I believe that is the key point. Why would any of the Big 3 go from a model where the customer can buy basically as many games as they can afford, to a model where the customer has to "prioritize".

Sure they will have downloading as an option, why wouldn't they... But exclusively?? Not until bandwidth gets a whole lot better (and cheaper).

Because the bandwidth thing is a complete red herring. Most games are a lot smaller than watching a single movie in HD.

Sure some games are giant behemoths of content but even those could be streamed a bit at a time as content as needed.

Red Herring.

NewtonTrino · 22nd May 2012, 08:43 AM

Originally Posted by Morrigan

Why are phone games compared to handheld games? They don't address the same markets at all. Iphone games are limited to a touch screen. Fine for games like Angry Birds, but go ahead and try playing Castlevania or Metroid with that...

Then games like castevania and metroid won't be what people play. The writing is on the wall and convergence is killing devices that only do one thing. So yes, they have different interfaces but the size of the iphone game market already crushes the handheld machines in terms of size.

What happens when every kid has a smart phone (along with every adult?)

People in the industry can see these trends and are investing appropriately in software. That doesn't include building a whole lot of handheld games anymore.

NewtonTrino · 22nd May 2012, 08:46 AM

Originally Posted by OnlyTellsTruths

Coincidentally, the new issue of GameInformer (available at all GameStops) has a decent article on the very subjects in this thread. It is on page 20 and is titled "Treasure Hunting: How Game Makers are Getting your Money".

So the official gaming magazine of gamestop says gamestop will be successful. Good one.

Quote:

It then goes on to talk about used games and other related issues.

Again, what makes you think these people have any clue of the barrel they are looking down? Gamestop already tried getting into the digital business by buying stardocks service and they are failing pretty bad.

Anyway we've beat this to death, I'll stick with my predictions previously in the thread. But just know that most "analysts" can't see past the end of their nose. We are at the front of a huge wave of change here in how games get distributed and consumed and not everyone has gotten the memo yet. Denial ain't just a river.

OnlyTellsTruths · 23rd May 2012, 02:29 AM

Originally Posted by NewtonTrino

Because the bandwidth thing is a complete red herring. Most games are a lot smaller than watching a single movie in HD.

Sure some games are giant behemoths of content but even those could be streamed a bit at a time as content as needed.

Red Herring.

Odd how you repeatedly bring up Non-Console games in a discussion about Console games even though I keep reminding you of such.

PS1 games were on average 500mb each, PS2 games were on average 2gb, PS3 games are on average 4gb to 8gb each. PS4 games will probably start to fill up the entire Blu-Ray disc so, 16gb to 24gb.

I don't think anyone but you thinks they are going to start getting smaller!

I have doubts that a 24gb game is going to be streamable anytime soon.

Bandwidth is just one of the reasons physical media will still be on the new Nintendo in 2018. Hardly a red herring.

Originally Posted by NewtonTrino

So the official gaming magazine of gamestop says gamestop will be successful. Good one.

Did you even read the quote? It is from the vice-president of EEDAR: Electronic Entertainment Design and Research.

Originally Posted by NewtonTrino

Again, what makes you think these people have any clue of the barrel they are looking down?

Yeah why would Electronic Entertainment Design and Research have any clue about anything....

If you would, please address the actual content of the quote.

OnlyTellsTruths · 23rd May 2012, 02:43 AM

Originally Posted by NewtonTrino

But just know that most "analysts" can't see past the end of their nose. We are at the front of a huge wave of change here in how games get distributed and consumed and not everyone has gotten the memo yet. Denial ain't just a river.

That is just an outright fabrication. No-one is denying it. Everyone has gotten the memo!

You are claiming it is happening now, while everything I know points to it happening a good decade off.

The subtitles of the article you are so quick to brush off are:

The Old Standard [physical media]

and

The Future is Downloadable

The entire article is about the memo!

So, as far as I understand it, you either disagree about the timeline, or you disagree that everyone is aware of it. I'm quite sure that everyone is aware of it, so it must be the timeline.

-----------------

As for handhelds and phones.

You already claimed that handhelds are dead now. That is clearly not true.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nintendo_DS_sales

150 million units shipped in the past 8 years.

You also keep bringing up phone games. Those were never available on physical media, they were always tiny down-loadable games. Comparing them to console games just doesn't make any sense for at least for another decade.

Darat · 23rd May 2012, 03:10 AM

Originally Posted by OnlyTellsTruths

That is just an outright fabrication. No-one is denying it. Everyone has gotten the memo!

You are claiming it is happening now, while everything I know points to it happening a good decade off.

The subtitles of the article you are so quick to brush off are:

The Old Standard [physical media]

and

The Future is Downloadable

The entire article is about the memo!

-----------------

As for handhelds and phones.

You already claimed that handhelds are dead now. That is clearly not true.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nintendo_DS_sales

150 million units shipped in the past 8 years.

You also keep bringing up phone games. Those were never available on physical media, they were always tiny down-loadable games. Comparing them to console games just doesn't make any sense for at least for another decade.

It does to those of us in the games industry who have the view that a game is a game no matter what platform it is on.

OnlyTellsTruths · 23rd May 2012, 03:13 AM

Originally Posted by Darat

It does to those of us in the games industry who have the view that a game is a game no matter what platform it is on.

First, and most importantly, the part you highlighted is in a paragraph about downloadability. It should be read in that context.

As for what I take as your point, I completely agree.

You can compare Angry Birds to Zelda all you want to!

They are both games, this is true. There are ways to achieve the same revenue numbers with both, that is also true.

As far as I know the thread is about Sony, Nintendo, and Microsoft banning used games and/or physical media entirely on their respective home consoles, the Wii#, the PS#, and the Xbox#.

I don't see it happening for at least a decade.

Darat · 23rd May 2012, 03:37 AM

Originally Posted by OnlyTellsTruths

First, and most importantly, the part you highlighted is in a paragraph about downloadability. It should be read in that context.

As for what I take as your point, I completely agree.

You can compare Angry Birds to Zelda all you want to!

They are both games, this is true. There are ways to achieve the same revenue numbers with both, that is also true.

As far as I know the thread is about Sony, Nintendo, and Microsoft banning used games and/or physical media entirely on their respective home consoles, the Wii#, the PS#, and the Xbox#.

I don't see it happening for at least a decade.

If that was the case the thread would have been over a long time ago since there is no source that can confirm what Sony's plans are, never mind the other consoles.

What I find puzzling is how you want to limit the discussion to a subset of the market of people that play "computer/video games" and then further to a very small subset of the types of games people play. After all the same issues apply to all platforms on which people play games. An iphone is as much a games console as is an XBox these days, that's just a simple fact. And what such platforms demonstrate is that the majority of people who play games really are not that interested in owning the "physical media" - there is almost half a generation of literally 10s of millions of folk who have never owned a physical copy of the games they play.

OnlyTellsTruths · 23rd May 2012, 03:24 PM

Originally Posted by Darat

If that was the case the thread would have been over a long time ago since there is no source that can confirm what Sony's plans are, never mind the other consoles.

Exactly. So I guess you approve of this thread drift. I wasn't trying to "limit the discussion", I was trying to stay on topic.

Originally Posted by Darat

After all the same issues apply to all platforms on which people play games.

As I understood it, the issue was banning of used games and the ending of physical media on consoles. Bringing up a device that never had used games and never had physical media doesn't really make sense. I can see it being used as an example of what can be done now, but they never had to make the transition.

Originally Posted by Darat

An iphone is as much a games console as is an XBox these days, that's just a simple fact.

Well, technically that is correct. But it's a completely different league. There are basically no Triple A games on the iOS.

It's like comparing movie theater films to TV series. Sure the films end up on TV eventually.

Perhaps in 10 years or so there will be equality between the power of a Handheld and the power of a PC or Console. But, for the past 30 years, the handhelds have been at least 1 or 2 generations behind in power. That hasn't changed. Phones and handhelds are still at least 1 or 2 generations behind PCs and Consoles in power. So, for that very fact alone, PCs and Consoles are going to have the new Triple-A games.

You might as well have said:

"A PS1 is as much a games console as is a PS3 these days, that's just a simple fact."

Yeah, except one is way less powerful and the other one has all the new blockbusters.

Originally Posted by Darat

there is almost half a generation of literally 10s of millions of folk who have never owned a physical copy of the games they play.

I think that's pretty clear. You can look at Wii,360,PS3 sales numbers and deduct that there must be a few billion people who have never owned a physical copy of the games they play.

I'm sure tons of those people would love to have a Wii,360, or a PS3.

If you are trying to imply that there are people who own one of those 3 and only play the Wii Store, or the Playstation Store games, I seriously doubt there are even 5 percent that do that.

The Playstation Store is fine if you are downloading mini's. But it can be an absolute nightmare if you are downloading a real 4gb game. If your download errors out at 98% Sony doesn't even support resume. It just starts over.

One day it will be so, but not now.

PCs are the top of the line in terms of power (if you upgrade your PC every couple years). They have transitioned to download only for the most part.

Phones are only in turns of power (even if you upgrade every couple years), they play mini's and old games well. They were always download only.

Consoles and Handhelds, on the other hand, have only really transitioned to download only for mini's and demos. They are still entrenched in physical media, and I doubt that will change for 2 or 3 generations.

OnlyTellsTruths · 23rd May 2012, 03:27 PM

Again, no one is denying that any of that is going to happen within 10 to 15 years. I saw a claim that said it was happening much sooner.

OnlyTellsTruths · 23rd May 2012, 05:44 PM

I would like to apologize for my tone.

Really you guys are preaching to the choir.

I am never one to get involved in PC vs. Console debates. I say get them both.

I am never one to get involved in Sony vs Microsoft debates. Again, I say get them both if you can afford it! Get a Nintendo as well.

If the game is good it doesn't matter what it is on. I have just as much fun playing good games from the 1980s as good games from 2012!

If it's a good game it doesn't matter to me if it's on a PS1, a PS3, a PC, an iPhone, a 1998 Nokia phone, a 1980s Nintendo, or whatever!

It also doesn't matter to me if it is an 8kb version of 1989 Tetris or a 4GB version of the new Call of Duty on PS3. So it's not the size of the game or the power of the system either.

All that matters to me personally is the gameplay. I don't mind old graphics at all.

It also doesn't matter to me really if I have a physical copy or not. Just as long as what it plays on has plenty of storage space.

I'm really not a good person to be presenting what I believe is my disagreement in this thread!

NewtonTrino · 24th May 2012, 04:16 PM

Originally Posted by Darat

It does to those of us in the games industry who have the view that a game is a game no matter what platform it is on.

Bingo. There is no artificial distinction between "console" games, iphone game or any other game.

NewtonTrino · 24th May 2012, 04:17 PM

Originally Posted by OnlyTellsTruths

I would like to apologize for my tone.

Really you guys are preaching to the choir.

I am never one to get involved in PC vs. Console debates. I say get them both.

I am never one to get involved in Sony vs Microsoft debates. Again, I say get them both if you can afford it! Get a Nintendo as well.

If the game is good it doesn't matter what it is on. I have just as much fun playing good games from the 1980s as good games from 2012!

If it's a good game it doesn't matter to me if it's on a PS1, a PS3, a PC, an iPhone, a 1998 Nokia phone, a 1980s Nintendo, or whatever!

It also doesn't matter to me if it is an 8kb version of 1989 Tetris or a 4GB version of the new Call of Duty on PS3. So it's not the size of the game or the power of the system either.

All that matters to me personally is the gameplay. I don't mind old graphics at all.

It also doesn't matter to me really if I have a physical copy or not. Just as long as what it plays on has plenty of storage space.

I'm really not a good person to be presenting what I believe is my disagreement in this thread!

Not to mention you are arguing with a bunch of people who are actually in the industry and quite frankly have a more up to date view of this stuff. Being on the consumer side is going to leave you in the dark on what's really going on.

NewtonTrino · 24th May 2012, 04:19 PM

Originally Posted by OnlyTellsTruths

Well, technically that is correct. But it's a completely different league. There are basically no Triple A games on the iOS.

Define AAA game. I asked you to do this before. You can't just throw around terms without understanding what they mean.

Lolly · 24th May 2012, 05:21 PM

Originally Posted by NewtonTrino

Being on the consumer side is going to leave you in the dark on what's really going on.

Time will tell. The companies will make their decisions and the consumers will make theirs. Edsel, anyone?

NewtonTrino · 25th May 2012, 02:21 PM

Originally Posted by Lolly

Time will tell. The companies will make their decisions and the consumers will make theirs. Edsel, anyone?

Most game revenue today worldwide is already coming from the downloadable space. So consumers have already made their decisions.

Take a look at year to year comparisons for console game sales.

Lolly · 25th May 2012, 02:23 PM

Originally Posted by NewtonTrino

So consumers have already made their decisions.

No, they haven't, because they still have options. If those options are removed, their decisions may change.

OnlyTellsTruths · 26th May 2012, 06:15 PM

Originally Posted by NewtonTrino

Not to mention you are arguing with a bunch of people who are actually in the industry and quite frankly have a more up to date view of this stuff. Being on the consumer side is going to leave you in the dark on what's really going on.

Even though I have already capitulated I just want to point out how hilarious it is that you keep bringing that up.

Not only have I proven you wrong on at least one point, you don't know that I'm not your boss!

If I partook in the fallacy of which you are partaking then you might be very surprised at what my job is.

Also who are the "bunch" of people. You and Darat?

I note that you still haven't commented on any of the points from post #370.

Originally Posted by NewtonTrino

Define AAA game. I asked you to do this before. You can't just throw around terms without understanding what they mean.

Do you seriously not know what a Triple-A blockbuster game is? Or are you trying to catch me in some clever trick. Sad either way.

Comparing the games that are currently on phones to games that are on consoles and PCs (or even to some handheld games) is an absolute joke. Not to mention the near complete absence of Triple-A games.

---------------

Originally Posted by NewtonTrino

Most game revenue today worldwide is already coming from the downloadable space.

Could you explain then what is wrong with this quote from the vice-president of analysis for the leading provider of video game research, sales forecasting and business intelligence services? One of the few points from post #370 you never addressed.

Quote:

"Physical software sales account for $25 billion annually in the western markets, which is nearly four time more than several emerging markets such as social and mobile."

Perhaps that is gross and not net?

Oh, and lets not forget that if we are talking about Consoles and Handhelds only, then it's less than 5% downloaded games. And if you don't count minis and older generation games then it's less than 1%.

OnlyTellsTruths · 26th May 2012, 06:19 PM

E3 is in 2 weeks. I wonder if Sony or Microsoft will be making new console announcements or if they will let Nintendo's new console news dominate...

14th May 2012, 04:45 AM	#362
Fishstick Graduate Poster Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 1,303	Originally Posted by Sceptic-PK 10-15 episodes is more than 2 months of bandwidth. Sure, if you're grabbing them all at once then it might be an issue, so you don't I guess. If that's your thing then you do what I do, go with an ISP that offers free bandwidth from Steam (most of the time, grrr). I unfortunately don't know of any hi-def music streams for the style of music I'm into (at least, not for free) but yeah I guess that could add up depending on your usage. And if there's no such ISP in your area/country? Or you use another service like D2D/GoG/etc? I download Steam games (and their updates!) and listen to Spotify while gaming, so my BW usage adds up pretty fast. What works for me or for you doesnt automatically work for everyone.
	Last edited by Fishstick; 14th May 2012 at 04:50 AM.

15th May 2012, 03:42 AM	#366
OnlyTellsTruths Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 5,790	Originally Posted by Sceptic-PK Even if we accept that meaningless position, we do what we always do when faced with finite resources, we prioritise. I believe that is the key point. Why would any of the Big 3 go from a model where the customer can buy basically as many games as they can afford, to a model where the customer has to "prioritize". Sure they will have downloading as an option, why wouldn't they... But exclusively?? Not until bandwidth gets a whole lot better (and cheaper).
OnlyTellsTruths Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 5,790	__________________ ________________________

18th May 2012, 11:46 AM	#367
Corsair 115 Philosopher Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Tranquility Base Posts: 8,576	Originally Posted by OnlyTellsTruths There are still tons of people with DVD players who are too poor or too lazy to use Netflix. That latter part appears to be backwards. Netflix (at least, it's online streaming service) is designed for lazy people like myself. No need to leave the home, just turn on the computer or Xbox, start up the Netflix app, and I can start watching. As to poor, Neflix in Canada costs $7.99 per month. Basic cable TV 'round these parts runs about $30 per month. If you start adding various specialty channel packages the cost can easily reach $60 per month, if not more. An Xbox Live Gold subscription can be had for about $5 per month, so Neflix plus Xbox Live comes to about $13 per month, less than half of what basic cable TV costs.
	__________________ "We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things not because they are easy, but because they are hard. Because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our abilities and skills, because that challenge is one we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win." Last edited by Corsair 115; 18th May 2012 at 11:55 AM.

20th May 2012, 12:51 AM	#368
Morrigan Crone of War Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 6,879	Why are phone games compared to handheld games? They don't address the same markets at all. Iphone games are limited to a touch screen. Fine for games like Angry Birds, but go ahead and try playing Castlevania or Metroid with that...
Morrigan Crone of War Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 6,879

21st May 2012, 05:02 PM	#370
OnlyTellsTruths Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 5,790	Coincidentally, the new issue of GameInformer (available at all GameStops) has a decent article on the very subjects in this thread. It is on page 20 and is titled "Treasure Hunting: How Game Makers are Getting your Money". How long will physical media last and how they want to stop used games. I typed this out, so any errors are probably mine. Quote: For many gamers, the familiar structure of buying a game at a store and bringing home a box with a disc remains the go-to path for delivery. This proven and profitable model remains the primary monetization avenue for the most high-end games. <snip> According to Jesse Divnich, who tracks industry trends as vice president of analysis with EEDAR, retail games remain a powerful revenue stream, and are likely to remain that way for many years to come. "The retail model will always exist for the foreseeable future," Divnich says. "Physical software sales account for $25 billion annually in the western markets, which is nearly four time more than several emerging markets such as social and mobile. We do believe, however, that the physical sales market is slowly declining. We see the retail model, which can support much higher price points, to continue to be a medium for triple-A video games." The likely migration away from retail could become increasingly apparent with the lower-tier products. "Middle-of-the-road titles, like movie-based games, 5- to 7-rate games, etc.are likely to switch to other markets, if not disappear entirely," Divnich says. <snip> Anecdotally, Neilsen's SoundScan report found that the music industry still sold over 220 million compact discs in 2011, even with the seemingly ubiquitous presence of downloadable tracks... <snip> It then goes on to talk about used games and other related issues.
OnlyTellsTruths Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 5,790	__________________ ________________________

14th May 2012, 04:09 AM	#361
Sceptic-PK Master Poster Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 2,403	Originally Posted by Fishstick assuming you watch <720p. A 100gb cap is very easy to break if you watch a normal amount of either in a decent-enough quallity to warrant not-buying physical media. A season (say 10 - 15 episodes) of 20 minute shows in 720p is easily 6 - 8Gb. A season of Game of Thrones in 1080p is > 40Gb. 10-15 episodes is more than 2 months of bandwidth. Sure, if you're grabbing them all at once then it might be an issue, so you don't I guess. Originally Posted by Fishstick* If you use that same connection to also download games (where >5Gb is no longer rare for mainstream games), listen to music streams and watch youtube, a 100gb cap is surprisingly small. If that's your thing then you do what I do, go with an ISP that offers free bandwidth from Steam (most of the time, grrr). I unfortunately don't know of any hi-def music streams for the style of music I'm into (at least, not for free) but yeah I guess that could add up depending on your usage.

14th May 2012, 04:52 AM	#363
Sceptic-PK Master Poster Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 2,403	Originally Posted by Fishstick What works for me or for you doesnt automatically work for everyone. Of course not (but GoG games are hardly going to bother the bandwidth cap). No reason to use D2D, other than they suck and too expensive, too many regional limitations for those outside NA.

14th May 2012, 05:08 AM	#364
Fishstick Graduate Poster Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 1,303	Ugh. Those were just off-the cuff examples. Replace GoG/D2D with 'linux sources' and 'cloud files' or 'uploading a lot of photos', then. The main point is that you can't gauge someone's expected bandwidth consumption by applying your own unique situation.

14th May 2012, 05:18 AM	#365
Sceptic-PK Master Poster Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 2,403	Originally Posted by Fishstick Ugh. Those were just off-the cuff examples. Replace GoG/D2D with 'linux sources' and 'cloud files' or 'uploading a lot of photos', then. The main point is that you can't gauge someone's expected bandwidth consumption by applying your own unique situation. I understand perfectly what you're saying, I'm just stringing you along because of your silly, irrelevant questions. Implicit to your statements is that no amount of bandwidth is ever enough. Even if we accept that meaningless position, we do what we always do when faced with finite resources, we prioritise. There are only a handful of TV shows that absolutely must have full HD, there is only so much music we must absolutely have at 320 or higher. We can only play so many games each month. If someone is unable to manage 100GB/month for their popular culture needs, then they're doing it wrong (or just don't get out almost ever).

20th May 2012, 01:20 AM	#369
Alan Illuminator Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: Melbourne, Australia Posts: 3,652	Originally Posted by Morrigan Why are phone games compared to handheld games? They don't address the same markets at all. Iphone games are limited to a touch screen. Fine for games like Angry Birds, but go ahead and try playing Castlevania or Metroid with that... The Vita is a good mix. Touchscreen, back touchpad, SIXAXIS, buttons, two analogue sticks, etc.

22nd May 2012, 12:31 AM	#371
devnull Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Perth, Western Australia Posts: 4,532	Originally Posted by Dinwar Add pirating to the mix, and you get a nightmare for any large gaming studio. Nonsense, but this issue isnt about piracy at all anyway.
	__________________ no, i don't think i need to read naturalistic literature more accurately, to be convinced its true. - Gibhor

22nd May 2012, 08:40 AM	#372
NewtonTrino Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Bothell, WA Posts: 3,782	Originally Posted by OnlyTellsTruths I believe that is the key point. Why would any of the Big 3 go from a model where the customer can buy basically as many games as they can afford, to a model where the customer has to "prioritize". Sure they will have downloading as an option, why wouldn't they... But exclusively?? Not until bandwidth gets a whole lot better (and cheaper). Because the bandwidth thing is a complete red herring. Most games are a lot smaller than watching a single movie in HD. Sure some games are giant behemoths of content but even those could be streamed a bit at a time as content as needed. Red Herring.

22nd May 2012, 08:43 AM	#373
NewtonTrino Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Bothell, WA Posts: 3,782	Originally Posted by Morrigan Why are phone games compared to handheld games? They don't address the same markets at all. Iphone games are limited to a touch screen. Fine for games like Angry Birds, but go ahead and try playing Castlevania or Metroid with that... Then games like castevania and metroid won't be what people play. The writing is on the wall and convergence is killing devices that only do one thing. So yes, they have different interfaces but the size of the iphone game market already crushes the handheld machines in terms of size. What happens when every kid has a smart phone (along with every adult?) People in the industry can see these trends and are investing appropriately in software. That doesn't include building a whole lot of handheld games anymore.

22nd May 2012, 08:46 AM	#374
NewtonTrino Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Bothell, WA Posts: 3,782	Originally Posted by OnlyTellsTruths Coincidentally, the new issue of GameInformer (available at all GameStops) has a decent article on the very subjects in this thread. It is on page 20 and is titled "Treasure Hunting: How Game Makers are Getting your Money". So the official gaming magazine of gamestop says gamestop will be successful. Good one. Quote: It then goes on to talk about used games and other related issues. Again, what makes you think these people have any clue of the barrel they are looking down? Gamestop already tried getting into the digital business by buying stardocks service and they are failing pretty bad. Anyway we've beat this to death, I'll stick with my predictions previously in the thread. But just know that most "analysts" can't see past the end of their nose. We are at the front of a huge wave of change here in how games get distributed and consumed and not everyone has gotten the memo yet. Denial ain't just a river.

23rd May 2012, 02:29 AM	#375
OnlyTellsTruths Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 5,790	Originally Posted by NewtonTrino Because the bandwidth thing is a complete red herring. Most games are a lot smaller than watching a single movie in HD. Sure some games are giant behemoths of content but even those could be streamed a bit at a time as content as needed. Red Herring. Odd how you repeatedly bring up Non-Console games in a discussion about Console games even though I keep reminding you of such. PS1 games were on average 500mb each, PS2 games were on average 2gb, PS3 games are on average 4gb to 8gb each. PS4 games will probably start to fill up the entire Blu-Ray disc so, 16gb to 24gb. I don't think anyone but you thinks they are going to start getting smaller! I have doubts that a 24gb game is going to be streamable anytime soon. Bandwidth is just one of the reasons physical media will still be on the new Nintendo in 2018. Hardly a red herring. Originally Posted by NewtonTrino So the official gaming magazine of gamestop says gamestop will be successful. Good one. Did you even read the quote? It is from the vice-president of EEDAR: Electronic Entertainment Design and Research. Originally Posted by NewtonTrino Again, what makes you think these people have any clue of the barrel they are looking down? Yeah why would Electronic Entertainment Design and Research have any clue about anything.... If you would, please address the actual content of the quote.
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23rd May 2012, 02:43 AM	#376
OnlyTellsTruths Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 5,790	Originally Posted by NewtonTrino But just know that most "analysts" can't see past the end of their nose. We are at the front of a huge wave of change here in how games get distributed and consumed and not everyone has gotten the memo yet. Denial ain't just a river. That is just an outright fabrication. No-one is denying it. Everyone has gotten the memo! You are claiming it is happening now, while everything I know points to it happening a good decade off. The subtitles of the article you are so quick to brush off are: The Old Standard [physical media] and The Future is Downloadable The entire article is about the memo! So, as far as I understand it, you either disagree about the timeline, or you disagree that everyone is aware of it. I'm quite sure that everyone is aware of it, so it must be the timeline. ----------------- As for handhelds and phones. You already claimed that handhelds are dead now. That is clearly not true. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nintendo_DS_sales 150 million units shipped in the past 8 years. You also keep bringing up phone games. Those were never available on physical media, they were always tiny down-loadable games. Comparing them to console games just doesn't make any sense for at least for another decade.
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23rd May 2012, 03:10 AM	#377
Darat Lackey Administrator / JREF Forum Liaison Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: South East, UK Posts: 64,783	Originally Posted by OnlyTellsTruths That is just an outright fabrication. No-one is denying it. Everyone has gotten the memo! You are claiming it is happening now, while everything I know points to it happening a good decade off. The subtitles of the article you are so quick to brush off are: The Old Standard [physical media] and The Future is Downloadable The entire article is about the memo! ----------------- As for handhelds and phones. You already claimed that handhelds are dead now. That is clearly not true. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nintendo_DS_sales 150 million units shipped in the past 8 years. You also keep bringing up phone games. Those were never available on physical media, they were always tiny down-loadable games. Comparing them to console games just doesn't make any sense for at least for another decade. It does to those of us in the games industry who have the view that a game is a game no matter what platform it is on.
	__________________ If it were all so simple! If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and destroy them. But the line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being. And who is willing to destroy a piece of his own heart? - Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn 1918-2008

23rd May 2012, 03:13 AM	#378
OnlyTellsTruths Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 5,790	Originally Posted by Darat It does to those of us in the games industry who have the view that a game is a game no matter what platform it is on. First, and most importantly, the part you highlighted is in a paragraph about downloadability. It should be read in that context. As for what I take as your point, I completely agree. You can compare Angry Birds to Zelda all you want to! They are both games, this is true. There are ways to achieve the same revenue numbers with both, that is also true. As far as I know the thread is about Sony, Nintendo, and Microsoft banning used games and/or physical media entirely on their respective home consoles, the Wii#, the PS#, and the Xbox#. I don't see it happening for at least a decade.
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23rd May 2012, 03:37 AM	#379
Darat Lackey Administrator / JREF Forum Liaison Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: South East, UK Posts: 64,783	Originally Posted by OnlyTellsTruths First, and most importantly, the part you highlighted is in a paragraph about downloadability. It should be read in that context. As for what I take as your point, I completely agree. You can compare Angry Birds to Zelda all you want to! They are both games, this is true. There are ways to achieve the same revenue numbers with both, that is also true. As far as I know the thread is about Sony, Nintendo, and Microsoft banning used games and/or physical media entirely on their respective home consoles, the Wii#, the PS#, and the Xbox#. I don't see it happening for at least a decade. If that was the case the thread would have been over a long time ago since there is no source that can confirm what Sony's plans are, never mind the other consoles. What I find puzzling is how you want to limit the discussion to a subset of the market of people that play "computer/video games" and then further to a very small subset of the types of games people play. After all the same issues apply to all platforms on which people play games. An iphone is as much a games console as is an XBox these days, that's just a simple fact. And what such platforms demonstrate is that the majority of people who play games really are not that interested in owning the "physical media" - there is almost half a generation of literally 10s of millions of folk who have never owned a physical copy of the games they play.
	__________________ If it were all so simple! If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and destroy them. But the line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being. And who is willing to destroy a piece of his own heart? - Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn 1918-2008

23rd May 2012, 03:24 PM	#380
OnlyTellsTruths Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 5,790	Originally Posted by Darat If that was the case the thread would have been over a long time ago since there is no source that can confirm what Sony's plans are, never mind the other consoles. Exactly. So I guess you approve of this thread drift. I wasn't trying to "limit the discussion", I was trying to stay on topic. Originally Posted by Darat After all the same issues apply to all platforms on which people play games. As I understood it, the issue was banning of used games and the ending of physical media on consoles. Bringing up a device that never had used games and never had physical media doesn't really make sense. I can see it being used as an example of what can be done now, but they never had to make the transition. Originally Posted by Darat An iphone is as much a games console as is an XBox these days, that's just a simple fact. Well, technically that is correct. But it's a completely different league. There are basically no Triple A games on the iOS. It's like comparing movie theater films to TV series. Sure the films end up on TV eventually. Perhaps in 10 years or so there will be equality between the power of a Handheld and the power of a PC or Console. But, for the past 30 years, the handhelds have been at least 1 or 2 generations behind in power. That hasn't changed. Phones and handhelds are still at least 1 or 2 generations behind PCs and Consoles in power. So, for that very fact alone, PCs and Consoles are going to have the new Triple-A games. You might as well have said: "A PS1 is as much a games console as is a PS3 these days, that's just a simple fact." Yeah, except one is way less powerful and the other one has all the new blockbusters. Originally Posted by Darat there is almost half a generation of literally 10s of millions of folk who have never owned a physical copy of the games they play. I think that's pretty clear. You can look at Wii,360,PS3 sales numbers and deduct that there must be a few billion people who have never owned a physical copy of the games they play. I'm sure tons of those people would love to have a Wii,360, or a PS3. If you are trying to imply that there are people who own one of those 3 and only play the Wii Store, or the Playstation Store games, I seriously doubt there are even 5 percent that do that. The Playstation Store is fine if you are downloading mini's. But it can be an absolute nightmare if you are downloading a real 4gb game. If your download errors out at 98% Sony doesn't even support resume. It just starts over. One day it will be so, but not now. PCs are the top of the line in terms of power (if you upgrade your PC every couple years). They have transitioned to download only for the most part. Phones are only in turns of power (even if you upgrade every couple years), they play mini's and old games well. They were always download only. Consoles and Handhelds, on the other hand, have only really transitioned to download only for mini's and demos. They are still entrenched in physical media, and I doubt that will change for 2 or 3 generations.
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23rd May 2012, 03:27 PM	#381
OnlyTellsTruths Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 5,790	Again, no one is denying that any of that is going to happen within 10 to 15 years. I saw a claim that said it was happening much sooner.
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23rd May 2012, 05:44 PM	#382
OnlyTellsTruths Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 5,790	I would like to apologize for my tone. Really you guys are preaching to the choir. I am never one to get involved in PC vs. Console debates. I say get them both. I am never one to get involved in Sony vs Microsoft debates. Again, I say get them both if you can afford it! Get a Nintendo as well. If the game is good it doesn't matter what it is on. I have just as much fun playing good games from the 1980s as good games from 2012! If it's a good game it doesn't matter to me if it's on a PS1, a PS3, a PC, an iPhone, a 1998 Nokia phone, a 1980s Nintendo, or whatever! It also doesn't matter to me if it is an 8kb version of 1989 Tetris or a 4GB version of the new Call of Duty on PS3. So it's not the size of the game or the power of the system either. All that matters to me personally is the gameplay. I don't mind old graphics at all. It also doesn't matter to me really if I have a physical copy or not. Just as long as what it plays on has plenty of storage space. I'm really not a good person to be presenting what I believe is my disagreement in this thread!
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24th May 2012, 04:16 PM	#383
NewtonTrino Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Bothell, WA Posts: 3,782	Originally Posted by Darat It does to those of us in the games industry who have the view that a game is a game no matter what platform it is on. Bingo. There is no artificial distinction between "console" games, iphone game or any other game.

24th May 2012, 04:17 PM	#384
NewtonTrino Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Bothell, WA Posts: 3,782	Originally Posted by OnlyTellsTruths I would like to apologize for my tone. Really you guys are preaching to the choir. I am never one to get involved in PC vs. Console debates. I say get them both. I am never one to get involved in Sony vs Microsoft debates. Again, I say get them both if you can afford it! Get a Nintendo as well. If the game is good it doesn't matter what it is on. I have just as much fun playing good games from the 1980s as good games from 2012! If it's a good game it doesn't matter to me if it's on a PS1, a PS3, a PC, an iPhone, a 1998 Nokia phone, a 1980s Nintendo, or whatever! It also doesn't matter to me if it is an 8kb version of 1989 Tetris or a 4GB version of the new Call of Duty on PS3. So it's not the size of the game or the power of the system either. All that matters to me personally is the gameplay. I don't mind old graphics at all. It also doesn't matter to me really if I have a physical copy or not. Just as long as what it plays on has plenty of storage space. I'm really not a good person to be presenting what I believe is my disagreement in this thread! Not to mention you are arguing with a bunch of people who are actually in the industry and quite frankly have a more up to date view of this stuff. Being on the consumer side is going to leave you in the dark on what's really going on.

24th May 2012, 04:19 PM	#385
NewtonTrino Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Bothell, WA Posts: 3,782	Originally Posted by OnlyTellsTruths Well, technically that is correct. But it's a completely different league. There are basically no Triple A games on the iOS. Define AAA game. I asked you to do this before. You can't just throw around terms without understanding what they mean.

24th May 2012, 05:21 PM	#386
Lolly discombobulated Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Western Australia Posts: 4,575	Originally Posted by NewtonTrino Being on the consumer side is going to leave you in the dark on what's really going on. Time will tell. The companies will make their decisions and the consumers will make theirs. Edsel, anyone?
	__________________ Pet Lover http://forums.randi.org/group.php?groupid=45 "When particles of evil and iniquity swarm together, they make a Lolly.": Legend

25th May 2012, 02:21 PM	#387
NewtonTrino Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Bothell, WA Posts: 3,782	Originally Posted by Lolly Time will tell. The companies will make their decisions and the consumers will make theirs. Edsel, anyone? Most game revenue today worldwide is already coming from the downloadable space. So consumers have already made their decisions. Take a look at year to year comparisons for console game sales.

25th May 2012, 02:23 PM	#388
Lolly discombobulated Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Western Australia Posts: 4,575	Originally Posted by NewtonTrino So consumers have already made their decisions. No, they haven't, because they still have options. If those options are removed, their decisions may change.
	__________________ Pet Lover http://forums.randi.org/group.php?groupid=45 "When particles of evil and iniquity swarm together, they make a Lolly.": Legend

26th May 2012, 06:15 PM	#389
OnlyTellsTruths Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 5,790	Originally Posted by NewtonTrino Not to mention you are arguing with a bunch of people who are actually in the industry and quite frankly have a more up to date view of this stuff. Being on the consumer side is going to leave you in the dark on what's really going on. Even though I have already capitulated I just want to point out how hilarious it is that you keep bringing that up. Not only have I proven you wrong on at least one point, you don't know that I'm not your boss! If I partook in the fallacy of which you are partaking then you might be very surprised at what my job is. Also who are the "bunch" of people. You and Darat? I note that you still haven't commented on any of the points from post #370. Originally Posted by NewtonTrino Define AAA game. I asked you to do this before. You can't just throw around terms without understanding what they mean. Do you seriously not know what a Triple-A blockbuster game is? Or are you trying to catch me in some clever trick. Sad either way. Comparing the games that are currently on phones to games that are on consoles and PCs (or even to some handheld games) is an absolute joke. Not to mention the near complete absence of Triple-A games. --------------- Originally Posted by NewtonTrino Most game revenue today worldwide is already coming from the downloadable space. Could you explain then what is wrong with this quote from the vice-president of analysis for the leading provider of video game research, sales forecasting and business intelligence services? One of the few points from post #370 you never addressed. Quote: "Physical software sales account for $25 billion annually in the western markets, which is nearly four time more than several emerging markets such as social and mobile." Perhaps that is gross and not net? Oh, and lets not forget that if we are talking about Consoles and Handhelds only, then it's less than 5% downloaded games. And if you don't count minis and older generation games then it's less than 1%.
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26th May 2012, 06:19 PM	#390
OnlyTellsTruths Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 5,790	E3 is in 2 weeks. I wonder if Sony or Microsoft will be making new console announcements or if they will let Nintendo's new console news dominate...
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