[Merged] Silver Over 40.00 / Real and fake prices - Page 18

Puppycow · 17th May 2012, 02:29 AM

Originally Posted by Frank Newgent

I've no axe to grind here.

Think it's safe to say gold and silver are down solely because of fears concerning Greece/future of the Euro, etc.

That is, that the dollar is so strong in this deflationary environment. Nothing to be smug about IMO.

Originally Posted by The Don

If that's the case then I think it's very interesting because the price of gold and silver used to rise on news of economic uncertainty.

In the opposite case though (no economic uncertainty, good times ahead) there would be another reason for gold and silver to go down: You want to put your money in stocks instead. This is what happened in the 90s. The stock markets were roaring, and gold was very cheap. Gold did very well since 2008 by comparison.

Fast Eddie B · 17th May 2012, 04:17 AM

Originally Posted by Frank Newgent

Think it's safe to say gold and silver are down solely because of fears concerning Greece/future of the Euro, etc.

I don't think that's "safe to say" at all.

Post hoc, hasty generalization, correlation equals causation, all come to mind. A whole garden of fallacies from which to choose!

All those same factors had some predicting an increase in silver not so long ago in this thread.

Again, if all of these factors do not give one predictive powers, we just have essentially random free market moves being explained after the fact with "just so" stories.

What silver is going to do going forward has always been the guessing game here. And will forever remain a guess, IMHO.

kevsta · 17th May 2012, 04:54 AM

Originally Posted by Fast Eddie B

What silver is going to do going forward has always been the guessing game here. And will forever remain a guess, IMHO.

not really, (on a long enough timeline) at some point market fundamentals must reassert themselves.

steadily increasing industrial demand, dwindling inventory..

.. price continues down to decline beyond it's current 600 year lows?

not very likely IMO

this guy was first a classically trained economist, who started looking in depth at the silver market

http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/si...thology-part-i

Quote:

Simply, every year (for as far back as reliable data exists) production (i.e. mine supply) has been exceeded by demand, and generally by a huge margin. It is the most elementary principle of markets (and arithmetic) that no market can remain out of balance forever, and in particular any market experiencing excess demand must reverse itself (at the very latest) when inventories reach zero.

With silver mining already extremely depressed by the 600-year low in price, with inventories already having plummeted by more than 75% over the preceding 12 years, and with GFMS itself predicting that production will fall (again) in the upcoming year, it still concludes that prices are just fine. This is not “economic analysis”, it’s “creative writing” (i.e. fiction).

There is only one source of “new silver” in the entire world: mine production. Any/every other ounce of silver which comes onto the market represents a draw-down of inventories/stockpiles. By definition, this is absolutely unsustainable as inventories are finite and (obviously) can never go below zero.

I fully concur with Sprott that silver will be the investment of the next decade, like Gold was the last.

Fast Eddie B · 17th May 2012, 05:49 AM

Originally Posted by kevsta

...(on a long enough timeline)...

Weasel words...

...giving any finite prediction wiggle room to be wrong.

"In the long run, we are all dead."

John Maynard Keynes

kevsta · 17th May 2012, 06:04 AM

Originally Posted by Fast Eddie B

Weasel words...

...giving any finite prediction wiggle room to be wrong.

did you miss this bit?

Quote:

silver will be the investment of the next decade

Originally Posted by Fast Eddie B

"In the long run, we are all dead."

John Maynard Keynes

I believe that what he meant was "so why not spend spend spend and let your grandchildren deal with it?"

The Don · 17th May 2012, 06:51 AM

Originally Posted by kevsta

I fully concur with Sprott that silver will be the investment of the next decade, like Gold was the last.

Sprott's a canny one, he makes a prediction where it'll take 10 years to find out whether he was wrong or not.

The Don · 17th May 2012, 06:57 AM

It's not quite true that mining is the only source of silver available for industrial users.

For example in 2000, the demand for silver in the United States was 3,000 metric tonnes.

In 2000, 1,700 tonnes of silver was recovered from secondary sources (i.e. recycled)

Source: http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/c1196n/c1196n.pdf

This may help to explain the long-term imbalance between silver usage and silver mining

kevsta · 17th May 2012, 07:03 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

Sprott's a canny one, he makes a prediction where it'll take 10 years to find out whether he was wrong or not.

aye, wish i'd heard the least one 10 years ago.

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/d...-in-gold.html/

Quote:

Sprott’s investment firm has $9 billion in assets under management and has returned 17.1 percent on an annualized basis since 2002 by identifying the gold bull market early.

kevsta · 17th May 2012, 07:08 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

It's not quite true that mining is the only source of silver available for industrial users.

For example in 2000, the demand for silver in the United States was 3,000 metric tonnes.

In 2000, 1,700 tonnes of silver was recovered from secondary sources (i.e. recycled)

Source: http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/c1196n/c1196n.pdf

This may help to explain the long-term imbalance between silver usage and silver mining

interesting, although i suspect its a bit out of date now. for example, in 2000, silver was still used in photography, digital cameras were in their infancy.

Quote:

~~For example, of the 2,500 t of silver consumed in the United States in photographic applications in 2000~~, some of the metal is still in use (archived X-ray film, black and white photographs), ~~another part has been recycled (silver recovered from fixer solutions)~~

this would appear to be quite a large amount on it's own, now all heading into new applications, electronics, mobile phones, cruise missiles, solar (the power of the future lol)

Puppycow · 17th May 2012, 04:40 PM

Now apparently gold is going up because of fears about Greece.

http://bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-17...l-gold-rebound

trustbutverify · 17th May 2012, 05:43 PM

I'd like to make a prediction concerning the price of silver. If the spot crosses above the $45 level, the OP will make a sudden reappearance. Thank you.

Frank Newgent · 17th May 2012, 06:32 PM

Originally Posted by Puppycow

Now apparently gold is going up because of fears about Greece.

http://bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-17...l-gold-rebound

Link failed.

Did Bloomberg really say that? Gold might've regained some ground because it was perceived as being a good buy, what with all the losses recently and esp in light of how the Fed hinted at more quantitative easing.

The dollar is still largely perceived as the best safe haven. Gold isn't.

Like I said before, I've no axe to grind here. I'm much more with Krugman than Paul Ryan on the way out.

psionl0 · 17th May 2012, 06:37 PM

Originally Posted by Frank Newgent

The dollar is still largely perceived as the best safe haven.

If (when?) that perception changes then we will see some real fun.

Puppycow · 17th May 2012, 06:52 PM

Originally Posted by Frank Newgent

Link failed.

Did Bloomberg really say that? Gold might've regained some ground because it was perceived as being a good buy, what with all the losses recently and esp in light of how the Fed hinted at more quantitative easing.

The dollar is still largely perceived as the best safe haven. Gold isn't.

Like I said before, I've no axe to grind here. I'm much more with Krugman than Paul Ryan on the way out.

Sorry, I posted that from my mobile and I made a mistake in editing the URL.

Here's what should be the correct link:
Stocks Drop on Europe, Manufacturing Data as Gold Rallies

Quote:

Stocks sank, dragging the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to a four-month low, as concern grew about the health of Spanish banks and an U.S. gauge of manufacturing trailed projections. Gold rebounded from its lowest level of the year while 10-year Treasury yields approached a record low.

The S&P 500 tumbled 1.5 percent to close at 1,304.86 at 4 p.m. New York time and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 156 points. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) lost 1.1 percent, while Russian and Brazilian stocks entered bear markets. U.S. notes gained as a $13 billion auction of 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities drew a record low negative yield. The Dollar Index (DXY) climbed for a record 14th straight day. Oil fell to a six-month low, while gold surged the most since October.

Concern about Europe’s debt crisis deepened as two people familiar with the situation said Moody’s Investors Service was set to downgrade the credit ratings of Spanish banks, with the ratings firm confirming the cuts after U.S. markets closed. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index decreased to minus 5.8 in May, indicating an unexpected contraction in manufacturing. The index of leading economic indicators dropped in April for the first time in seven months.

Note that gold is going opposite from oil, which is falling on the news.

kevsta · 17th May 2012, 10:58 PM

as Frank said, Gold was reacting to the increased liklihood of QE3 because of the poor Philly Fed report yesterday.

the "safehaven" status applies to gold on geo political matters, not deflation / liquidation concerns (yet)

The Don · 18th May 2012, 03:28 AM

Originally Posted by Puppycow

Note that gold is going opposite from oil, which is falling on the news.

Well that's the way it used to behave.

Oil is more of a "classical" commodity, the price tends to rise when there is increased "real" demand so news of economic growth would most likely result in a rise in the price of oil because there's likely to be more demand. The exception would be tensions in the Middle East which would likely cause the price of oil to rise on fears of reduced supply.

Gold used to be a hedge in times of uncertainly so the same bad economic news which results in the fall of the price of oil may cause a rise in the price of gold.

Almo · 18th May 2012, 07:02 PM

Originally Posted by kevsta

I believe that what he meant was "so why not spend spend spend and let your grandchildren deal with it?"

So you, like so many others, don't understand Keynes.

1) When times are rough, government can spend into the economy to smooth out the trough.
2) When times are good, the government repays the debt incurred during the bad times.

It is step 2 where the US has gone horribly wrong.

kevsta · 19th May 2012, 12:32 AM

Originally Posted by Almo

So you, like so many others, don't understand Keynes.

1) When times are rough, government can spend into the economy to smooth out the trough.
2) When times are good, the government repays the debt incurred during the bad times.

It is step 2 where the US has gone horribly wrong.

no I did know that's what he proposed, but as its blatently ridiculous to expect politicians to ever cut back and save during good times (as evidenced by hardly any ever doing it) he fails because he has no clue about the nature of mankind - or politician-kind anyway

Francesca R · 20th May 2012, 03:44 AM

Originally Posted by The Don

So now I completely don't understand the price of silver.

I don't know what's to understand. It is not an asset like a stock or a bond, it does not entitle its owner to a claim on cash flows generated by economic activity, and it should have no long term real rate of return, not even the cash rate. This has been stated at various times in the thread. It has a price (where supply clears with demand, and that includes "speculative" as well as "end use" demand and supply); it does not have a value.

Francesca R · 20th May 2012, 03:47 AM

Originally Posted by kevsta

its blatently ridiculous to expect politicians to ever cut back and save during good times (as evidenced by hardly any ever doing it) he fails because he has no clue about the nature of mankind - or politician-kind anyway

Broadly correct. This is a powerful argument for non-cyclical budget balancing to be enshrined in a nation's constitution (which is the place for ethics and the public good) rather than left to legislative assemblies (which is the place for representation of constituencies' interests).

As far as I know the only country that has put such a constitutional rule in place is Germany. Maybe Spain too actually, though starting from a point of low credibility.

Francesca R · 20th May 2012, 03:48 AM

Originally Posted by Almo

It is step 2 where the US has gone horribly wrong.

Step 2 is where almost everywhere "goes wrong". And that is to be expected.

Tippit · 20th May 2012, 06:30 PM

Originally Posted by Francesca R

Step 2 is where almost everywhere "goes wrong". And that is to be expected.

No, both steps are folly because the premise that central planning benefits everyone is folly. Government spending requires borrowing or taxation. Keynesian-style currency debasement, or legal counterfeiting, is merely a tax on the poor, and most borrowing couldn't occur without a fiat currency to debase, and thereby enable the monetization of said debt in the first place.

But regardless of who pays for government spending and how, we know that there is far more utility in spending our own money, than in having the government spend it for us.

When you come to realize that since much of sovereign debt is funded by central bank credit subsidized by the taxpayer for the private benefit of central bank cronies (indirect monetization), it is therefore mostly illegitimate. The service and repayment of illegitimate debt summarized by "step 2" is a disasterous course of action. The only solution to a phony debt crisis, is the cancellation of illegitimate debts. Without this reform the global debt crisis will not abate and will in fact get much worse.

The Don · 15th June 2012, 01:12 AM

Current silver spot price:

Under $29 an ounce, and a comparatively narrow trading range in the last month or so.

The Don · 17th July 2012, 06:22 AM

Another month closer to the end of the year:

Silver spot price is a smidge over $27 an ounce.

kevsta · 17th July 2012, 06:36 AM

time-wise, there's plenty left. Turk getting very excited over here and he called the same thing perfectly last year. we shall see.

Quote:

Turk also had this to say regarding gold and silver: “The bears and central planners have had every opportunity to break support under $1600 and under $27, even if just to gun for stops under these levels. But the precious metals have held firm. It is an impressive performance, but I am more impressed by the rally in gold and silver that started last week.

There is a new factor at work that is about to light a fire under the precious metals that few people recognize - food inflation. It was one of the key drivers in the summer of 2010 which launched the huge rally that eventually took silver near $50 and gold to a new record over $1900. Food inflation was also a factor in the big run-up of the precious metals in 2007, and early 2008, when food riots broke out around the globe because of high prices.

The worsening drought in the midwest means that food inflation will again become one of the drivers sending gold, silver and the mining shares much higher from here. The summer doldrums are over. Gold and silver are ready to get exciting once again. We can expect a rally from here that will take our breath away.”

Fast Eddie B · 17th July 2012, 07:50 AM

Yawn.

The Don · 17th July 2012, 08:19 AM

Silver rally ? Not much happened as far as I can see.

Does Turk give any timescales ? Does he give an expected price ?

At the moment all he is saying is that the price of silver will rise by some amount at some time in the future. That is hardly industrial grade soothsaying.

Turk's thing seems to be to predict a rise in the price of silver. When the price goes up, he's right, when the price goes down or stays the same then he's wrong.

The Don · 14th August 2012, 02:11 AM

Bump !

Another month later, more or less, current silver spot price is under $28 but it does seem to be trending upwards. Perhaps this is the emphatic move upwards towards $150 that Turk keeps banging on about.

UndercoverElephant · 14th August 2012, 12:06 PM

The price of silver is being manipulated downwards by the US government. That is why the investigation into price rigging was dropped. The question is how long they are going to be able to continue manipulating the digital/paper price of silver without it diverging in a major way from the actual price people have to pay to get hold of physical metal.

timhau · 14th August 2012, 12:18 PM

Originally Posted by UndercoverElephant

The price of silver is being manipulated downwards by the US government.

Are you sure it's not the Illuminati? Or Bilderbergers?

Fast Eddie B · 14th August 2012, 02:34 PM

Originally Posted by timhau

Are you sure it's not the Illuminati? Or Bilderbergers?

Da jooz.

Fast Eddie B · 14th August 2012, 02:39 PM

Originally Posted by UndercoverElephant

The price of silver is being manipulated downwards by the US government.

That's a fact.

A week ago tomorrow I had the thought to buy a bunch of silver.

Normally I have a tinfoil hat to avoid being influenced, but for personal reasons I had to go without for a short time.

The government got into my brain and changed my mind and I passed on the purchase. Keeping the price down.

All very insidious. And effective.

trustbutverify · 14th August 2012, 04:10 PM

Originally Posted by Fast Eddie B

Da jooz.

No, it's the Zionists.

WildCat · 14th August 2012, 04:37 PM

Is silver $40,000/oz yet?

Fast Eddie B · 14th August 2012, 04:38 PM

Originally Posted by WildCat

Is silver $40,000/oz yet?

No, but just wait!

Puppycow · 14th August 2012, 04:44 PM

Originally Posted by UndercoverElephant

The price of silver is being manipulated downwards by the US government. That is why the investigation into price rigging was dropped. The question is how long they are going to be able to continue manipulating the digital/paper price of silver without it diverging in a major way from the actual price people have to pay to get hold of physical metal.

What is the mechanism by which the government manipulates the price of silver?

I'm not sure what price of physical metal is, but if you are buying from a dealer, the dealer would have a profit margin.

MNBrant · 14th August 2012, 04:52 PM

I dont know what you mean. My 1 oz sterling coin cost 50 bucks and hasnt lost a penny on ebay.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Miraculous-M...item4d03575ca3

Puppycow · 14th August 2012, 07:03 PM

Originally Posted by MNBrant

I dont know what you mean. My 1 oz sterling coin cost 50 bucks and hasnt lost a penny on ebay.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Miraculous-M...item4d03575ca3

So the price for the "man on the street" to obtain one ounce of physical silver is $50?

If you sold it on E-bay, would you get $50 back? Or would E-bay take a cut?

Frank Newgent · 14th August 2012, 07:10 PM

Between ebay and paypal it's around 6%... varies according to whether it's an actual auction or "Buy It Now".

If we're bragging, I sold an oz of silver last weekend for $1500.

Puppycow · 14th August 2012, 07:42 PM

Originally Posted by Frank Newgent

Between ebay and paypal it's around 6%... varies according to whether it's an actual auction or "Buy It Now".

And then there's the cost of shipping. Either the customer or the seller has to pay that. I notice that the seller linked to above offers free shipping, so if I wanted to sell my silver coin, I would probably have to offer the same deal to the customer. IOW, the only way they can be making money is if they buy their silver for much less than $50/oz.

Quote:

If we're bragging, I sold an oz of silver last weekend for $1500.

A rare collectible coin?

17th May 2012, 02:29 AM	#681
Puppycow Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Japan Posts: 15,767	Originally Posted by Frank Newgent I've no axe to grind here. Think it's safe to say gold and silver are down solely because of fears concerning Greece/future of the Euro, etc. That is, that the dollar is so strong in this deflationary environment. Nothing to be smug about IMO. Originally Posted by The Don If that's the case then I think it's very interesting because the price of gold and silver used to rise on news of economic uncertainty. In the opposite case though (no economic uncertainty, good times ahead) there would be another reason for gold and silver to go down: You want to put your money in stocks instead. This is what happened in the 90s. The stock markets were roaring, and gold was very cheap. Gold did very well since 2008 by comparison.
	__________________ “Some men are born mediocre, some men achieve mediocrity, and some men have mediocrity thrust upon them. With Major Major it had been all three.” ― Joseph Heller, Catch-22

17th May 2012, 04:17 AM	#682
Fast Eddie B Graduate Poster Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: Mineral Bluff, GA Posts: 1,112	Originally Posted by Frank Newgent Think it's safe to say gold and silver are down solely because of fears concerning Greece/future of the Euro, etc. I don't think that's "safe to say" at all. Post hoc, hasty generalization, correlation equals causation, all come to mind. A whole garden of fallacies from which to choose! All those same factors had some predicting an increase in silver not so long ago in this thread. Again, if all of these factors do not give one predictive powers, we just have essentially random free market moves being explained after the fact with "just so" stories. What silver is going to do going forward has always been the guessing game here. And will forever remain a guess, IMHO.
	Last edited by Fast Eddie B; 17th May 2012 at 04:33 AM.

17th May 2012, 04:54 AM	#683
kevsta RBL CHeck Failed Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: in the shadows Posts: 2,441	Originally Posted by Fast Eddie B What silver is going to do going forward has always been the guessing game here. And will forever remain a guess, IMHO. not really, (on a long enough timeline) at some point market fundamentals must reassert themselves. steadily increasing industrial demand, dwindling inventory.. .. price continues down to decline beyond it's current 600 year lows? not very likely IMO this guy was first a classically trained economist, who started looking in depth at the silver market http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/si...thology-part-i Quote: Simply, every year (for as far back as reliable data exists) production (i.e. mine supply) has been exceeded by demand, and generally by a huge margin. It is the most elementary principle of markets (and arithmetic) that no market can remain out of balance forever, and in particular any market experiencing excess demand must reverse itself (at the very latest) when inventories reach zero. With silver mining already extremely depressed by the 600-year low in price, with inventories already having plummeted by more than 75% over the preceding 12 years, and with GFMS itself predicting that production will fall (again) in the upcoming year, it still concludes that prices are just fine. This is not “economic analysis”, it’s “creative writing” (i.e. fiction). There is only one source of “new silver” in the entire world: mine production. Any/every other ounce of silver which comes onto the market represents a draw-down of inventories/stockpiles. By definition, this is absolutely unsustainable as inventories are finite and (obviously) can never go below zero. I fully concur with Sprott that silver will be the investment of the next decade, like Gold was the last.
	__________________ "The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title." - Anonymous

17th May 2012, 06:04 AM	#685
kevsta RBL CHeck Failed Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: in the shadows Posts: 2,441	Originally Posted by Fast Eddie B Weasel words... ...giving any finite prediction wiggle room to be wrong. did you miss this bit? Quote: silver will be the investment of the next decade Originally Posted by Fast Eddie B "In the long run, we are all dead." John Maynard Keynes I believe that what he meant was "so why not spend spend spend and let your grandchildren deal with it?"
	__________________ "The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title." - Anonymous

17th May 2012, 07:03 AM	#688
kevsta RBL CHeck Failed Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: in the shadows Posts: 2,441	Originally Posted by The Don Sprott's a canny one, he makes a prediction where it'll take 10 years to find out whether he was wrong or not. aye, wish i'd heard the least one 10 years ago. http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/d...-in-gold.html/ Quote: Sprott’s investment firm has $9 billion in assets under management and has returned 17.1 percent on an annualized basis since 2002 by identifying the gold bull market early.
	__________________ "The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title." - Anonymous

17th May 2012, 05:49 AM	#684
Fast Eddie B Graduate Poster Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: Mineral Bluff, GA Posts: 1,112	Originally Posted by kevsta ...(on a long enough timeline)... Weasel words... ...giving any finite prediction wiggle room to be wrong. "In the long run, we are all dead." John Maynard Keynes

17th May 2012, 06:51 AM	#686
The Don Philosopher Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Cymru Posts: 8,245	Originally Posted by kevsta I fully concur with Sprott that silver will be the investment of the next decade, like Gold was the last. Sprott's a canny one, he makes a prediction where it'll take 10 years to find out whether he was wrong or not.

17th May 2012, 06:57 AM	#687
The Don Philosopher Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Cymru Posts: 8,245	It's not quite true that mining is the only source of silver available for industrial users. For example in 2000, the demand for silver in the United States was 3,000 metric tonnes. In 2000, 1,700 tonnes of silver was recovered from secondary sources (i.e. recycled) Source: http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/c1196n/c1196n.pdf This may help to explain the long-term imbalance between silver usage and silver mining

17th May 2012, 07:08 AM	#689
kevsta RBL CHeck Failed Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: in the shadows Posts: 2,441	Originally Posted by The Don It's not quite true that mining is the only source of silver available for industrial users. For example in 2000, the demand for silver in the United States was 3,000 metric tonnes. In 2000, 1,700 tonnes of silver was recovered from secondary sources (i.e. recycled) Source: http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/c1196n/c1196n.pdf This may help to explain the long-term imbalance between silver usage and silver mining interesting, although i suspect its a bit out of date now. for example, in 2000, silver was still used in photography, digital cameras were in their infancy. Quote: ~~For example, of the 2,500 t of silver consumed in the United States in photographic applications in 2000~~, some of the metal is still in use (archived X-ray film, black and white photographs), ~~another part has been recycled (silver recovered from fixer solutions)~~ this would appear to be quite a large amount on it's own, now all heading into new applications, electronics, mobile phones, cruise missiles, solar (the power of the future lol)
	__________________ "The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title." - Anonymous

17th May 2012, 04:40 PM	#690
Puppycow Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Japan Posts: 15,767	Now apparently gold is going up because of fears about Greece. http://bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-17...l-gold-rebound
	__________________ “Some men are born mediocre, some men achieve mediocrity, and some men have mediocrity thrust upon them. With Major Major it had been all three.” ― Joseph Heller, Catch-22

17th May 2012, 05:43 PM	#691
trustbutverify Master Poster Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 2,084	I'd like to make a prediction concerning the price of silver. If the spot crosses above the $45 level, the OP will make a sudden reappearance. Thank you.

17th May 2012, 06:32 PM	#692
Frank Newgent Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 4,681	Originally Posted by Puppycow Now apparently gold is going up because of fears about Greece. http://bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-17...l-gold-rebound Link failed. Did Bloomberg really say that? Gold might've regained some ground because it was perceived as being a good buy, what with all the losses recently and esp in light of how the Fed hinted at more quantitative easing. The dollar is still largely perceived as the best safe haven. Gold isn't. Like I said before, I've no axe to grind here. I'm much more with Krugman than Paul Ryan on the way out.
	__________________ Disturbances of the semantic reactions in connection with faulty education and ignorance must be considered as sub-microscopic colloidal lesions - Alfred O. Korzybski

17th May 2012, 06:37 PM	#693
psionl0 Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: 31°58'S 115°57'E Posts: 4,780	Originally Posted by Frank Newgent The dollar is still largely perceived as the best safe haven. If (when?) that perception changes then we will see some real fun.

17th May 2012, 06:52 PM	#694
Puppycow Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Japan Posts: 15,767	Originally Posted by Frank Newgent Link failed. Did Bloomberg really say that? Gold might've regained some ground because it was perceived as being a good buy, what with all the losses recently and esp in light of how the Fed hinted at more quantitative easing. The dollar is still largely perceived as the best safe haven. Gold isn't. Like I said before, I've no axe to grind here. I'm much more with Krugman than Paul Ryan on the way out. Sorry, I posted that from my mobile and I made a mistake in editing the URL. Here's what should be the correct link: Stocks Drop on Europe, Manufacturing Data as Gold Rallies Quote: Stocks sank, dragging the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to a four-month low, as concern grew about the health of Spanish banks and an U.S. gauge of manufacturing trailed projections. Gold rebounded from its lowest level of the year while 10-year Treasury yields approached a record low. The S&P 500 tumbled 1.5 percent to close at 1,304.86 at 4 p.m. New York time and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 156 points. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) lost 1.1 percent, while Russian and Brazilian stocks entered bear markets. U.S. notes gained as a $13 billion auction of 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities drew a record low negative yield. The Dollar Index (DXY) climbed for a record 14th straight day. Oil fell to a six-month low, while gold surged the most since October. Concern about Europe’s debt crisis deepened as two people familiar with the situation said Moody’s Investors Service was set to downgrade the credit ratings of Spanish banks, with the ratings firm confirming the cuts after U.S. markets closed. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index decreased to minus 5.8 in May, indicating an unexpected contraction in manufacturing. The index of leading economic indicators dropped in April for the first time in seven months. Note that gold is going opposite from oil, which is falling on the news.
	__________________ “Some men are born mediocre, some men achieve mediocrity, and some men have mediocrity thrust upon them. With Major Major it had been all three.” ― Joseph Heller, Catch-22 Last edited by Puppycow; 17th May 2012 at 06:54 PM.

17th May 2012, 10:58 PM	#695
kevsta RBL CHeck Failed Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: in the shadows Posts: 2,441	as Frank said, Gold was reacting to the increased liklihood of QE3 because of the poor Philly Fed report yesterday. the "safehaven" status applies to gold on geo political matters, not deflation / liquidation concerns (yet)
	__________________ "The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title." - Anonymous

18th May 2012, 03:28 AM	#696
The Don Philosopher Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Cymru Posts: 8,245	Originally Posted by Puppycow Note that gold is going opposite from oil, which is falling on the news. Well that's the way it used to behave. Oil is more of a "classical" commodity, the price tends to rise when there is increased "real" demand so news of economic growth would most likely result in a rise in the price of oil because there's likely to be more demand. The exception would be tensions in the Middle East which would likely cause the price of oil to rise on fears of reduced supply. Gold used to be a hedge in times of uncertainly so the same bad economic news which results in the fall of the price of oil may cause a rise in the price of gold.

18th May 2012, 07:02 PM	#697
Almo Masterblazer Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Montreal, Quebec Posts: 6,407	Originally Posted by kevsta I believe that what he meant was "so why not spend spend spend and let your grandchildren deal with it?" So you, like so many others, don't understand Keynes. 1) When times are rough, government can spend into the economy to smooth out the trough. 2) When times are good, the government repays the debt incurred during the bad times. It is step 2 where the US has gone horribly wrong.
	__________________ Almo! My Blog "No society ever collapsed because the poor had too much." — LeftySergeant "It may be that there is no body really at rest, to which the places and motions of others may be referred." –Issac Newton in the Principia

19th May 2012, 12:32 AM	#698
kevsta RBL CHeck Failed Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: in the shadows Posts: 2,441	Originally Posted by Almo So you, like so many others, don't understand Keynes. 1) When times are rough, government can spend into the economy to smooth out the trough. 2) When times are good, the government repays the debt incurred during the bad times. It is step 2 where the US has gone horribly wrong. no I did know that's what he proposed, but as its blatently ridiculous to expect politicians to ever cut back and save during good times (as evidenced by hardly any ever doing it) he fails because he has no clue about the nature of mankind - or politician-kind anyway
	__________________ "The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title." - Anonymous

20th May 2012, 03:44 AM	#699
Francesca R Girl Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: London EC1 Posts: 11,825	Originally Posted by The Don So now I completely don't understand the price of silver. I don't know what's to understand. It is not an asset like a stock or a bond, it does not entitle its owner to a claim on cash flows generated by economic activity, and it should have no long term real rate of return, not even the cash rate. This has been stated at various times in the thread. It has a price (where supply clears with demand, and that includes "speculative" as well as "end use" demand and supply); it does not have a value.

20th May 2012, 03:47 AM	#700
Francesca R Girl Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: London EC1 Posts: 11,825	Originally Posted by kevsta its blatently ridiculous to expect politicians to ever cut back and save during good times (as evidenced by hardly any ever doing it) he fails because he has no clue about the nature of mankind - or politician-kind anyway Broadly correct. This is a powerful argument for non-cyclical budget balancing to be enshrined in a nation's constitution (which is the place for ethics and the public good) rather than left to legislative assemblies (which is the place for representation of constituencies' interests). As far as I know the only country that has put such a constitutional rule in place is Germany. Maybe Spain too actually, though starting from a point of low credibility.

20th May 2012, 03:48 AM	#701
Francesca R Girl Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: London EC1 Posts: 11,825	Originally Posted by Almo It is step 2 where the US has gone horribly wrong. Step 2 is where almost everywhere "goes wrong". And that is to be expected.

20th May 2012, 06:30 PM	#702
Tippit Graduate Poster Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 1,982	Originally Posted by Francesca R Step 2 is where almost everywhere "goes wrong". And that is to be expected. No, both steps are folly because the premise that central planning benefits everyone is folly. Government spending requires borrowing or taxation. Keynesian-style currency debasement, or legal counterfeiting, is merely a tax on the poor, and most borrowing couldn't occur without a fiat currency to debase, and thereby enable the monetization of said debt in the first place. But regardless of who pays for government spending and how, we know that there is far more utility in spending our own money, than in having the government spend it for us. When you come to realize that since much of sovereign debt is funded by central bank credit subsidized by the taxpayer for the private benefit of central bank cronies (indirect monetization), it is therefore mostly illegitimate. The service and repayment of illegitimate debt summarized by "step 2" is a disasterous course of action. The only solution to a phony debt crisis, is the cancellation of illegitimate debts. Without this reform the global debt crisis will not abate and will in fact get much worse.
Tippit Graduate Poster Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 1,982	__________________ "This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard." - Alan Greenspan 1966

15th June 2012, 01:12 AM	#703
The Don Philosopher Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Cymru Posts: 8,245	Current silver spot price: Under $29 an ounce, and a comparatively narrow trading range in the last month or so.

17th July 2012, 06:22 AM	#704
The Don Philosopher Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Cymru Posts: 8,245	Another month closer to the end of the year: Silver spot price is a smidge over $27 an ounce.

17th July 2012, 06:36 AM	#705
kevsta RBL CHeck Failed Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: in the shadows Posts: 2,441	time-wise, there's plenty left. Turk getting very excited over here and he called the same thing perfectly last year. we shall see. Quote: Turk also had this to say regarding gold and silver: “The bears and central planners have had every opportunity to break support under $1600 and under $27, even if just to gun for stops under these levels. But the precious metals have held firm. It is an impressive performance, but I am more impressed by the rally in gold and silver that started last week. There is a new factor at work that is about to light a fire under the precious metals that few people recognize - food inflation. It was one of the key drivers in the summer of 2010 which launched the huge rally that eventually took silver near $50 and gold to a new record over $1900. Food inflation was also a factor in the big run-up of the precious metals in 2007, and early 2008, when food riots broke out around the globe because of high prices. The worsening drought in the midwest means that food inflation will again become one of the drivers sending gold, silver and the mining shares much higher from here. The summer doldrums are over. Gold and silver are ready to get exciting once again. We can expect a rally from here that will take our breath away.”
	__________________ "The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt, who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country, with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title." - Anonymous

17th July 2012, 07:50 AM	#706
Fast Eddie B Graduate Poster Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: Mineral Bluff, GA Posts: 1,112	Yawn.

17th July 2012, 08:19 AM	#707
The Don Philosopher Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Cymru Posts: 8,245	Silver rally ? Not much happened as far as I can see. Does Turk give any timescales ? Does he give an expected price ? At the moment all he is saying is that the price of silver will rise by some amount at some time in the future. That is hardly industrial grade soothsaying. Turk's thing seems to be to predict a rise in the price of silver. When the price goes up, he's right, when the price goes down or stays the same then he's wrong.

14th August 2012, 02:11 AM	#708
The Don Philosopher Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Cymru Posts: 8,245	Bump ! Another month later, more or less, current silver spot price is under $28 but it does seem to be trending upwards. Perhaps this is the emphatic move upwards towards $150 that Turk keeps banging on about.

14th August 2012, 12:06 PM	#709
UndercoverElephant Pachyderm of a Thousand Faces Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Sussex, England Posts: 9,060	The price of silver is being manipulated downwards by the US government. That is why the investigation into price rigging was dropped. The question is how long they are going to be able to continue manipulating the digital/paper price of silver without it diverging in a major way from the actual price people have to pay to get hold of physical metal.
	__________________ "I am real!" said Alice, and began to cry. "You won't make yourself a bit realler by crying," Tweedledee remarked: "there's nothing to cry about." Last edited by UndercoverElephant; 14th August 2012 at 12:07 PM.

14th August 2012, 12:18 PM	#710
timhau NWO Litter Technician Join Date: May 2004 Location: East of Sweeden Posts: 9,674	Originally Posted by UndercoverElephant The price of silver is being manipulated downwards by the US government. Are you sure it's not the Illuminati? Or Bilderbergers?
	__________________ When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realised that the Lord, in his wisdom, doesn't work that way. I just stole one and asked Him to forgive me. - Emo Philips

14th August 2012, 02:34 PM	#711
Fast Eddie B Graduate Poster Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: Mineral Bluff, GA Posts: 1,112	Originally Posted by timhau Are you sure it's not the Illuminati? Or Bilderbergers? Da jooz.

14th August 2012, 02:39 PM	#712
Fast Eddie B Graduate Poster Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: Mineral Bluff, GA Posts: 1,112	Originally Posted by UndercoverElephant The price of silver is being manipulated downwards by the US government. That's a fact. A week ago tomorrow I had the thought to buy a bunch of silver. Normally I have a tinfoil hat to avoid being influenced, but for personal reasons I had to go without for a short time. The government got into my brain and changed my mind and I passed on the purchase. Keeping the price down. All very insidious. And effective.

14th August 2012, 04:10 PM	#713
trustbutverify Master Poster Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 2,084	Originally Posted by Fast Eddie B Da jooz. No, it's the Zionists.

14th August 2012, 04:37 PM	#714
WildCat NWO Master Conspirator Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Albany Park, Chicago Posts: 49,066	Is silver $40,000/oz yet?

14th August 2012, 04:38 PM	#715
Fast Eddie B Graduate Poster Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: Mineral Bluff, GA Posts: 1,112	Originally Posted by WildCat Is silver $40,000/oz yet? No, but just wait!