gold bull/bear survey

[kevsta]

Originally Posted by Tippit

That or just threaten European taxpayers with armageddon if they don't assume all of the bad debts and phony insurance policies, debase the currency, and pay off the creditors.

it's all under control, the truckloads of cash are loaded and rolling

http://demonocracy.info

[kevsta]

he's got $1million+ in GLD

see image

[Roger Ramjets]

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets

Obviously the price of gold can't continue to rise at its current exponential rate.

6 months later, how's gold doing now?

Down! -8.75%

[kevsta]

oh noes!! it's back to only up 12% YTD

remember, oh, 8 posts ago I said this?

Quote:

I'm personally still hoping for a re-test of $1705 or maybe even $1680 but gold is looking so strong it's starting to look doubtful, for the moment at least.

guess who's a happy boy and finally got let out of some underwater shorts at a profit? I was worried we would breach $1800 and then just carry on, and that would have been costly.

- long all the way now from $1688.

but your desperation to not be wrong about "the gold bubble" is palpable

..almost as desperate as the utterly blatant manipulators dropping a 31 ton (paper gold) sale onto the market with orders to sell immediately with no regards to price

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/

Quote:

Meanwhile investors continue to reflect on who might have been the big seller of paper gold on Wednesday. The latest speculation comes from Dennis Gartman of the Gartman Letter, one not predisposed to suggestions of market manipulation. An apparently trusted and well-placed source told Mr. Gartman that an undisclosed seller dumped the equivalent of 3 million ounces of gold at the London PM fix on Wednesday with the explicit instruction that it all be done within a few minutes. Gartman’s source believes “it was indeed official selling.”

Initially rumors suggested someone sold 1 million ounces worth of futures contracts, but whether we’re talking 31 tonnes, or 93 tonnes, what really changed hands on Wednesday was nothing more than a few grams of paper — or perhaps more accurately a bunch of “1s” and “0s” between computers. As one of my friends in Switzerland pointed out, there aren’t many counterparties on the planet that could come up with 31 tonnes of actual physical gold…and be willing to part with it.

In my opinion, whatever the volume of selling truly was, the market absorbed it pretty well and gold remains up nearly 12% since the beginning of the year. And based on the Wednesday’s PM fix at 1770.00, gold even managed to eke out a 1.49% gain in Feb.

[UndercoverElephant]

Gold and silver will be the last men standing. Between now and then, almost anything might happen.

[Roger Ramjets]

Gold flash crash rouses suspicions of witchcraft

"Last week was a feverish one for the more sensitive gold specu ... investors, with a “flash crash” on Wednesday interrupting what had been a stately procession since December to ever-higher highs. Since gold people believe their positions represent not just an investment, but virtue itself, the losers smell witchcraft, and particularly evil Fed witchcraft at that."

Here's the bit I don't get:-

"a stately procession since December to ever-higher highs."

Who is he kidding? For the past 6 months it's been up and down like a yo-yo, but the trend is down, and it's nowhere near any 'ever-higher high'. Is this a deliberate attempt to keep the rubes buying gold, or is he just deluded?

[kevsta]

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets

Gold flash crash rouses suspicions of witchcraft

"Last week was a feverish one for the more sensitive gold specu ... investors, with a “flash crash” on Wednesday interrupting what had been a stately procession since December to ever-higher highs. Since gold people believe their positions represent not just an investment, but virtue itself, the losers smell witchcraft, and particularly evil Fed witchcraft at that."

Here's the bit I don't get:-

"a stately procession since December to ever-higher highs."

Who is he kidding? For the past 6 months it's been up and down like a yo-yo, but the trend is down, and it's nowhere near any 'ever-higher high'. Is this a deliberate attempt to keep the rubes buying gold, or is he just deluded?

the trend is down lol. really? woods <-> trees.



you're just trolling aren't you?

the sell-off last week was extremely suspicious, just about everybody who knows what they're talking about seems to think so, because the massive 31 ton order was executed immediately with no concern for getting the best price on the market, (and this is every hedge fund isnt it ) almost, as though, someone just wanted to, hmm, smash the price down.

CB desperation tactics to keep the rubes too scared to buy gold instead of staying in their dying fiat would be my guess

[kevsta]

Quote:

Warren Buffett loves to bash gold — claiming that stocks are inherently superior, because they produce a return, whereas gold just sits. Trouble is, stocks (and all paper assets) are subject to counter-party risk, whereas physical gold isn’t. Gold doesn’t overcompensate its CEOs, it doesn’t leverage its productive capital in toxic derivatives, it doesn’t cause industrial disasters like Deepwater Horizon, its value isn’t dependent on central banking, or securitisation, or American imperialism, or the machinations of the military-industrial complex. It just sits, retaining its purchasing power.

Warren Buffett had a great ride: he grew his wealth and businesses in an era of unprecedented growth powered by OPEC oil, and later by Chinese industrialism. That era — the era of the American free lunch — is coming to an end. His insights are applicable to that era. Today is a different world.

[Roger Ramjets]

Howard Gold: The end of the gold bull is on the horizon

Quote:

This week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor’s 500 index have hit post-crisis highs, but gold prices keep tumbling...

Mark Williams... [is] a former bank examiner and risk analyst who teaches at Boston University and wrote a book, “Uncontrolled Risk,” about the fall of Lehman Brothers.

“The last bull market for gold ended in 1980, when prices fell by 60%,” he wrote. “The bubble is popping again. This time, gold could drop to $700 an ounce, more than $1,000 below its peak.”

[UndercoverElephant]

The gold bull will end when the monetary crisis is over. It is not over. The price of gold is currently only under control because of a series of co-ordinated "smack-downs" using the paper market, designed to scare people away. This will not keep working forever, because every time they smack the paper price down, China buys more physical. The physical market will come out on top. The "paper gold" will be exposed as a con-trick.

[kevsta]

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets

Howard Gold: The end of the gold bull is on the horizon

howard is clearly dumb money along with anybody who thinks the stocks rally is built in fundamentals and can last.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/retail...old-both-hands

Quote:

More on what was perfectly obvious to most except the propaganda pushers:

Quote:

The Bank for International Settlements, which acts on behalf of central banks, has been buying significant quantities of gold on the international market amid falling prices, traders said.

According to several estimates, the BIS bought 4-6 tonnes of gold, worth roughly $250m-$300m at current prices, in the over-the-counter physical market last week, with purchases particularly strong at the end of the week. The total purchases over the past three or four weeks were likely to be as much as double that, the traders added.

In a note to clients this week, Credit Suisse referred to “aggressive central bank buying seen last Friday”.

Of course, central banks are well aware what they are doing. In fact, they have been buying up gold pretty much non-stop in the past few years.

believe the propaganda at your own financial peril.

[Roger Ramjets]

Gold Down To Fresh 2012 Low

Quote:

Investors shed gold alongside growth-sensitive assets like stocks and commodities, prompting concern that the yellow metal continues to trade like a risk asset rather than a haven...

"It's like everybody's forgetting what gold actually is--a hedge against uncertainty and fiat money," said Bob Haberkorn, senior commodities broker at RJO Futures.

Gold trading 'like' a risk asset? Say it isn't so!

Quote:

Elsewhere, Germany's Federal Court of Audit is set to inform the nation's parliament of its objections to the way the central bank measures its 3.396 metric tons of gold reserves. Experts estimate that only 5% of those reserves are stored in Frankfurt and Mainz, while almost two-thirds are in New York, more than 20% are in London and about 8% are in Paris.

The Court will most likely provide a summary report which will request that the Bundesbank check whether the gold it has stored abroad is still there.

Wow, this conspiracy theory's going mainstream. Maybe Ron Paul was right, and there really isn't any gold in Fort Knox!

Or are German gold bugs just getting nervous?

[kevsta]

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets

Gold Down To Fresh 2012 Low

Gold trading 'like' a risk asset? Say it isn't so!

there is nothing unusual about Gold and silver getting hit in these potentially deflationary periods, look back to 2008.

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets

Wow, this conspiracy theory's going mainstream. Maybe Ron Paul was right, and there really isn't any gold in Fort Knox!

Or are German gold bugs just getting nervous?

the question is not really whether there is any gold there, but who it has been leased to in all the classified top-secret gold transactions that CBs continually conduct behind the scenes.

[Almo]

Quote:

"It's like everybody's forgetting what gold actually is--a hedge against uncertainty and fiat money," said Bob Haberkorn, senior commodities broker at RJO Futures.

[kevsta]

Originally Posted by Almo

Quote:
"It's like everybody's forgetting what gold actually is--a hedge against uncertainty and fiat money," said Bob Haberkorn, senior commodities broker at RJO Futures.

the correlation seems to holding on the updated chart

[Puppycow]

Get Ready for $1,200 an Ounce Gold

[timhau]

9 Ways That Gold Is a Religion Masquerading as an Asset Class

[kevsta]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

Get Ready for $1,200 an Ounce Gold

its possible in a collapse scenario, $1200 gold equals approx DOW 7-8k

do you want to place a bet that we see $2000 before $1200?

[kevsta]

I have talked before about the importance of institutional (dumb) money, pension funds etc and their levels of gold holdings (virtually zero compared to historically 5% ish)

interestingly, a Japanese canary in the gold mine?

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2012...he-gold-market

[Puppycow]

Originally Posted by kevsta

its possible in a collapse scenario, $1200 gold equals approx DOW 7-8k

do you want to place a bet that we see $2000 before $1200?

Sure. 20 quatloos.

[kevsta]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

Sure. 20 quatloos.

it doesn't have to be a financial bet, although I would happily bet you a one Oz silver coin because I think the probability is on my side. plus I already have stock from a price point way below current levels.

but actually, I'm really more interested in how confident you (as an intellectual gold skeptic) are in what they're saying.

that article says nothing new, Jon Nadler has been saying the same kind of things for the past 10 years and has been also wrong the whole way through the bull run.

[Puppycow]

Originally Posted by kevsta

it doesn't have to be a financial bet, although I would happily bet you a one Oz silver coin because I think the probability is on my side. plus I already have stock from a price point way below current levels.

but actually, I'm really more interested in how confident you (as an intellectual gold skeptic) are in what they're saying.

that article says nothing new, Jon Nadler has been saying the same kind of things for the past 10 years and has been also wrong the whole way through the bull run.

Not interested in betting real money, silver or otherwise. Hence quatloos.

How confident am I? Not very. I'm one of the ones who answered the poll "I'm not sure. Anything might happen."

Cuz, I think the market is almost unpredictable. It depends on mass psychology, which is hard to predict.

[kevsta]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

Not interested in betting real money, silver or otherwise. Hence quatloos.

How confident am I? Not very. I'm one of the ones who answered the poll "I'm not sure. Anything might happen."

Cuz, I think the market is almost unpredictable. It depends on mass psychology, which is hard to predict.

ok, thanks for sharing your view. and possibly your Quatloos

as I said, I'm not really a rabid "Its going up I bet you.." (although of course I do think we will see way higher prices than this before the cycle reverses, and am willing to make bets lol)

but this has proved a useful test these last few years with some of the more vociferous internet-based bubble callers, to basically see if they are willing to back their opinions with $30-40 or not.

[kevsta]

so I continue to wonder why this is, if gold is not money and will play no role in the monetary systems of the future.

Quote:

Central Banks boost gold holdings yet again
Latest figures from the IMF show that Central Banks have continued to increase their gold holdings significantly in April, after a big increase the previous month.

I mean it's not like CBs might know anything about the plans of the future behind the scenes, nor indeed do they pile up other commodities in their vaults.

wierd.

[kevsta]

Originally Posted by timhau

9 Ways That Gold Is a Religion Masquerading as an Asset Class

ok back to this nonsense. Weisenthal is an arse.

it is not a religion, there is no faith involved, its trust.

In gold we trust - that and our own world views, which do seem to be radically at odds with "the herd majority" I'll grant you.

[BenBurch]

http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/...MO_CODE=ECE1-1

[kevsta]

Originally Posted by BenBurch

http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/...MO_CODE=ECE1-1

whats this supposed to mean? are you recommending this book and it's author to me?

[Johny2x4]

If the economy and society goes tits up, people are going to recognize the value of assault rifles and canned goods. Not gold. Just stating the blatantly obvious.

[timhau]

Originally Posted by Johny2x4

If the economy and society goes tits up, people are going to recognize the value of assault rifles and canned goods. Not gold. Just stating the blatantly obvious.

No, no, no, no. It's one of the central tenets of the Gold religion that once apocalypse arrives, the mystical properties of Gold will save all the true believers. And make no mistake, the apocalypse will arrive soon, because the League of Anti-Christs (Bernanke, IMF, any or all of the major investment banks, take your pick) can only ward off the inevitable for so long.

[kevsta]

Originally Posted by timhau

No, no, no, no. It's one of the central tenets of the Gold religion that once apocalypse arrives, the mystical properties of Gold will save all the true believers. And make no mistake, the apocalypse will arrive soon, because the League of Anti-Christs (Bernanke, IMF, any or all of the major investment banks, take your pick) can only ward off the inevitable for so long.

are you confident that your Keynesian cult is going to finally prove that it really is different this time?



Swedish housing index

[timhau]

Oh, but the True Faith says that in Gold we have finally found an asset whose value only goes up, and up, and up, and then Ron Paul is inaugurated as POTUS, and then it again goes up, and up, and... wait, remind me, who was it who believes in "this time it's different"?

[kevsta]

Originally Posted by timhau

Oh, but the True Faith says that in Gold we have finally found an asset whose value only goes up, and up, and up, and then Ron Paul is inaugurated as POTUS, and then it again goes up, and up, and... wait, remind me, who was it who believes in "this time it's different"?

lol.

I dont believe *its different* (TM)

- *when* the global economy recovers enough from the future paper debt destruction required and *they* could even think about removing the life support (ZIRP) and returning to realistic free market (positive) interest rates without imploding banks and sovereigns alike..

by *then*, at the historically usual (bottoming out of the cycle) ratios, DOW:GOLD, housing to gold, housing to rent ratios, I'll be swapping into the (by then) undervalued asset classes.

few years yet though.

[timhau]

Infidel!! STONE HIM!!!

And good luck timing the market. It has generally worked in the 'not' range, but maybe this time it will... I mean, maybe it'll work for you.

[Hlafordlaes]

Gold is a commodity good subject to supply and demand. Demand is subject to both real fundamentals and psychology. Due to the last, its price is anyone's guess in the short term.

A good friend of mine, who unlike most of us has half a billion dollars to invest, recently pointed out in El País (Spain's largest newspaper) that on-paper wealth (not to be confused with paper money) currently amounts to 40x world assets. There's $40 accounting dollars for every $1 in assets.

A greater than 1:1 ratio is logical due to the present value of future cash flows accruing to assets, but 40:1 is, well, ridiculously high.

This mountain of paper chased profits in emerging economies in the early 90's, dot.com next, then real estate, now to some extent gold. The boom-bust cycles will not end until there is a reckoning of sorts.

Our best shot at that reckoning was at the start of the crisis, when investors (not bank depositors, mind you) should have taken complete hair cuts and lost all or almost all of their worthless accounting (on paper, not paper) money.

Yes, according to my very wealthy friend and not a few economists, the very rich should lose their losses when they play in casinos, in the same way they keep their winnings.

Unfortunately, both in the US and Europe they now wield such disproportionate influence over the political process that it's the rest of us who finance their losses, and who have no rights to tax their winnings, either.

Sincerely,
Keynesian, er, "Cultist"

[kevsta]

Originally Posted by timhau

Infidel!! STONE HIM!!!

And good luck timing the market. It has generally worked in the 'not' range, but maybe this time it will... I mean, maybe it'll work for you.

thank you. it has generally worked pretty well for me in 2005-2012 range.

the kind of decisions we are talking about here are taken from monthly or even yearly charts, and as a hobby day trader I can usually tell you where the price is to a $ or 2, its not very likely to suddenly pass me by.

[kevsta]

Originally Posted by Hlafordlaes

Gold is a commodity good

I personally dispute that Gold is [only] a commodity.

perhaps you could have a crack at addressing this post?

[stilicho]

Originally Posted by The Central Scrutinizer

And if you bought $850 worth of KO, you'd have $40,000.

Your point?

Originally Posted by falkowsi

If you bought $850 worth of KO in 1998, you'd have $650 right now.

If you bought $850 worth of gold in 1998, you'd have $4700 right now.

How long will it take before KO will pass gold again ?

Time for a reality check. I voted "anything could happen" and indeed that is what's happening to Au and other commodities.

But TCS had a good point about KO and I'll add in my favourite (which I unabashedly stole from drkitten) INTC:

KO +11.19% (not annualised, incl. dividends) from start of thread
INTC +17.77% (not annualised, incl. dividends) from start of thread
Gold -3.08% (not annualised, no possibility of dividends) from start of thread

Goldbugs moreover have to start buying their commodity in USD or they're going to be losing even more money than they are already. The USD is by default gaining strength against the EUR and even the GBP.

[stilicho]

Originally Posted by Hlafordlaes

Gold is a commodity good subject to supply and demand. Demand is subject to both real fundamentals and psychology. Due to the last, its price is anyone's guess in the short term.

A good friend of mine, who unlike most of us has half a billion dollars to invest, recently pointed out in El País (Spain's largest newspaper) that on-paper wealth (not to be confused with paper money) currently amounts to 40x world assets. There's $40 accounting dollars for every $1 in assets.

A greater than 1:1 ratio is logical due to the present value of future cash flows accruing to assets, but 40:1 is, well, ridiculously high.

This mountain of paper chased profits in emerging economies in the early 90's, dot.com next, then real estate, now to some extent gold. The boom-bust cycles will not end until there is a reckoning of sorts.

Our best shot at that reckoning was at the start of the crisis, when investors (not bank depositors, mind you) should have taken complete hair cuts and lost all or almost all of their worthless accounting (on paper, not paper) money.

Yes, according to my very wealthy friend and not a few economists, the very rich should lose their losses when they play in casinos, in the same way they keep their winnings.

Unfortunately, both in the US and Europe they now wield such disproportionate influence over the political process that it's the rest of us who finance their losses, and who have no rights to tax their winnings, either.

Sincerely,
Keynesian, er, "Cultist"

All my billionaire friends think all your billionaire friends are jerks too. Meanwhile, in the real world...

[kevsta]

some interesting charts, Canada priced in real money

$CA ratios of gold, commodities & real estate - Real prices

Housing by area

[kevsta]

http://aheadoftheherd.com/Newsletter...-1-Capital.htm

Quote:

The Basel Committee for Bank Supervision (BCBS), the maker of global capital requirements and whose Basel III rules form the basis for global bank regulation, is studying making gold a bank capital Tier 1 asset.

“Gold has historically been classified as a Tier 3 asset. When determining how much money a bank can loan, the bank's gold holdings have traditionally been discounted 50 percent of the current market value. With value cut in half, banks have little incentive to hold gold as an asset.” Frank Holmes, usfunds.com

The BCBS is a committee of banking supervisory authorities established by the central bank governors of the Group of Ten countries in 1974. The Committee's members currently come from Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong SAR, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States.

If gold is made a Tier 1 Capital asset banks could operate with far less equity capital than is normally required. Gold would be the new backstop for debt, currencies and bank equity capital.

Quote:

"Anyone who understands gold’s historic role will grasp the importance of the argument behind extra bank leverage. Direct ownership of bullion by a bank is superior to holding the fiat money issued by a central bank. It should increase confidence in any bank and the system as a whole. Given relative values, bank purchases of bullion will drive the value of gold as Tier 1 capital up relative to other qualifying assets, increasing its desirability for regulatory purposes further without a gold-owning bank doing anything." Alasdair Macleod, resourceinvestor.com

interesting choice of "commodity" - no mention of any other commodity options under consideration?