Romney, Obama, Rasmussen

[JoeTheJuggler]

Originally Posted by stevea

Growth is anemic and tenuous. The question is clearly are Obama's policies preventing a robust recovery ?

Which policies of Obama's? Please, be specific.

[BenBurch]

Starting to see more LV in the mix. Polling will be changing over to that until the end of August.

[RandFan]

[BenBurch]

It was closer than that earlier today, but I was not where I could screenshot and post it.

[Puppycow]

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...s-out-of-touch

[BenBurch]

Quite a jump. Radmussen jumping in the other direction. Somebody has a bad LV screening method, but I can't tell you who.

[BenBurch]

Originally Posted by BenBurch

Quite a jump. Radmussen jumping in the other direction. Somebody has a bad LV screening method, but I can't tell you who.

Rasmussen - pardon the typo. Having vision problems.

[BenBurch]

Margin of error on the Bloomberg poll on LV questions is +/- 3.6%; http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/rQyA68BW5P20

[MattusMaximus]

Obama is climbing again over at IEM, while Romney is sitting relatively flat; meanwhile, over at Intrade, Obama is climbing a touch while Romney is declining slightly. The difference in each is about 10-12% for WTA, with Obama in the lead, which has remained remarkably stable over the last 3 weeks or so.

ETA: I'm guessing we won't see another major shift, if at all, until the next jobs report comes out.

[MattusMaximus]

Originally Posted by BenBurch

Margin of error on the Bloomberg poll on LV questions is +/- 3.6%; http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/rQyA68BW5P20

Nate Silver is critical of the Bloomberg poll, with good reason, I think...

Quote:

Outlier Polls Are No Substitute for News

On Wednesday morning, Bloomberg released a poll that showed President Obama 13 points ahead of Mitt Romney among likely voters.

It goes without saying that the poll is extremely different from the other results we have been seeing lately. The FiveThirtyEight “now-cast,” which estimates the current state of the national race through a detailed evaluation of both state and national surveys, had put Mr. Obama ahead by just 1 point instead. Other methods of polling aggregation, like the RealClearPolitics average of polls, had come to about the same answer.

What to do when you encounter a poll like this?

What you don’t want to do is attribute deep meaning to it. The polls don’t move on their own; rather, they move in reaction to news as voters come to take different views of the environment around them. ...

[BenBurch]

Yeah, I think their screening questions have to be looked at.

[Puppycow]

Originally Posted by BenBurch

Margin of error on the Bloomberg poll on LV questions is +/- 3.6%; http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/rQyA68BW5P20

Originally Posted by BenBurch

Yeah, I think their screening questions have to be looked at.

You have to remember that the margin of error is only a 95% confidence margin of error. Thus, one poll in twenty will have an error larger than the margin of error, even if there are no problems with the screening methods. My guess is that this is that one poll in twenty.

[RandFan]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

You have to remember that the margin of error is only a 95% confidence margin of error. Thus, one poll in twenty will have an error larger than the margin of error, even if there are no problems with the screening methods. My guess is that this is that one poll in twenty.

Which is why Real Clear Politics has a point about polls. There is no way to get a perfect picture of public sentiment. And, sadly, polls can be self fulfilling prophecy. The can also lead to over confidence resulting in the opposite of self fulfilling prophecy. Having watched the polling for many moths now, this one is so counter to the trend that I look at it skeptically.

Unless he makes a serious gaffe I expect Romney to pass Obama at least once in the next couple of months.

[applecorped]

Romney 48%, Obama 43%

[BenBurch]

From http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

[BenBurch]

Little change today;

[Unabogie]

Originally Posted by BenBurch

Little change today;

This belongs in the CT forum, but does Rasmussen come out with the Romney +5 just to offset Bloomberg's Obama +13?

[applecorped]

Originally Posted by Unabogie

This belongs in the CT forum, but does Rasmussen come out with the Romney +5 just to offset Bloomberg's Obama +13?

Yes, of course. Rasmussen is a Racist.

[Unabogie]

Originally Posted by applecorped

Yes, of course. Rasmussen is a Racist.

No, but he is a Republican with opaque methodology. Let me hunt down what Nate Silver said...

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...rmed-strongly/

[RandFan]

Originally Posted by Unabogie

No, but he is a Republican with opaque methodology. Let me hunt down what Nate Silver said...

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...rmed-strongly/

Wow. I did not know that. Thank you.

[Unabogie]

Originally Posted by RandFan

Wow. I did not know that. Thank you.

More...

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/...-does-not.html

[Puppycow]

USA TODAY/Gallup Poll: Latinos strongly back Obama

A shift in Florida?

Most recent poll has Obama up by 4 in FL, where Romney had a slight edge a few weeks ago. Could just be regression to the previous norm, because Obama had the edge back in March and April. It's been back-and-forth in FL for a while now.

If the election were held tomorrow, I'd like Obama's chances in most of these swing states.

[BenBurch]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

USA TODAY/Gallup Poll: Latinos strongly back Obama

A shift in Florida?

Most recent poll has Obama up by 4 in FL, where Romney had a slight edge a few weeks ago. Could just be regression to the previous norm, because Obama had the edge back in March and April. It's been back-and-forth in FL for a while now.

If the election were held tomorrow, I'd like Obama's chances in most of these swing states.

I think regression to norm. But that is a lot better than it being a measurable negative which I would have put money on.

[Puppycow]

NBC/WSJ Poll: Obama Gaining Ground In Swing States

Quote:

President Obama clings to a small lead nationally in a new poll from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal, leading Republican Mitt Romney 47 percent to 44 percent. The president’s advantage widens in the states typically considered up for grabs — Obama leads by 8 points (50 percent to 42 percent) in a combined sample of voters in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

“Also in these swing states, Romney’s favorability numbers have dropped, possibly reflecting the toll the negative Obama TV advertisements are having on the former Massachusetts governor in these battlegrounds,” MSNBC’s FirstRead blog wrote. Those attacks include a sustained critique of Romney’s time at Bain Capital, the private equity firm that he co-founded.

[BenBurch]

From: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

[BenBurch]

Tipping-point chart; http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp201...P_average.html

[BenBurch]

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics...,7275509.story

[Puppycow]

Bizarre headline of the day, but interesting story:
Obama Tops Romney in Poll of Three Swing-State Voters

Didn't need that image in my head, and they really should poll more than three voters.

But here's the substance:

Quote:

President Barack Obama holds an edge over presumed Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the competitive states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida, a Quinnipiac University poll shows.

Obama leads Romney by 9 percentage points in Ohio, 6 points in Pennsylvania and 4 points in Florida, according to the June 19-25 “swing-state” survey released today. Obama has gained ground in Ohio and Florida while his lead in Pennsylvania diminished slightly, compared with a Quinnipiac poll released on May 3.

The president’s move to stop deportations of some illegal immigrants brought to the U.S. as children helped win over voters, said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Hamden, Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. The president holds almost a 2-1 lead among Hispanic voters in Florida, the poll found.

. . .

The revised deportation policy Obama announced June 15 and his June 22 address to the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials meeting in Lake Buena Vista, Florida -- following a Romney speech to the group the previous day -- boosted the president’s standing with Hispanics in that state, according to Quinnipiac poll data.

In a June 12-18 poll by Quinnipiac solely of Florida voters -- in which Obama also led by 4 percentage points -- the president had a 10-point edge over Romney among Hispanics surveyed, 49 percent to 39 percent. In the latest poll, Obama’s lead over Romney in this bloc has grown to 24 points, 56 percent to 32 percent.

. . .

Among all Florida voters in the new survey, 58 percent said they supported Obama’s immigration initiative, while 33 percent opposed it.

Voters in the other two states in the poll were also supportive, backing the policy 52 percent to 38 percent in Ohio and 51 percent to 41 percent in Pennsylvania.

. . .

The poll’s margin of error in each state is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. Quinnipiac surveyed 1,200 voters in Florida, 1,237 in Ohio and 1,252 in Pennsylvania.

It's proved to be an even savvier political move than I originally thought. Especially beating Rubio to the punch on it. Romney is in a terrible pinch, hemming and hawing about whether he would reverse the policy or not.

[BenBurch]

From; http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

Of note is the Fox News poll. Obama +5. Last time Fox polled, if I recall, they polled LV and got a result wildly in favor of Obama. This time they polled RV, and got Obama +5. Those guys just can't win. :-)

[BenBurch]

From; http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

Correct me if I am wrong, but this is the first all-blue board I have seen here since Romney sewed it up. If GOP spending on attack ads continues at this pace, however, this is probably the last time.

[remirol]

Originally Posted by BenBurch

Correct me if I am wrong, but this is the first all-blue board I have seen here since Romney sewed it up. If GOP spending on attack ads continues at this pace, however, this is probably the last time.

From FiveThirtyEight, if the election were held right now:



The longer-term forecast remains 65% to 35%, but should increase slowly as more data gets added similar to the above.

[Puppycow]

Originally Posted by BenBurch

From; http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

Of note is the Fox News poll. Obama +5. Last time Fox polled, if I recall, they polled LV and got a result wildly in favor of Obama. This time they polled RV, and got Obama +5. Those guys just can't win. :-)

Originally Posted by BenBurch

From; http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

Correct me if I am wrong, but this is the first all-blue board I have seen here since Romney sewed it up. If GOP spending on attack ads continues at this pace, however, this is probably the last time.

You can scroll down the page to see the earlier polls. The previous Fox News poll was a tie, but the one before that was Obama +7. The Fox News polls are of RV but the Rasmussen poll is LV. There's a stretch of 11 blue polls back in April and another of 12 further back starting in late January. The longest stretch of red polls is 4.

[BenBurch]

Originally Posted by BenBurch

From; http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

Correct me if I am wrong, but this is the first all-blue board I have seen here since Romney sewed it up. If GOP spending on attack ads continues at this pace, however, this is probably the last time.

Another blue one just added. Obama at +3.9

Romney has to be wondering what went wrong.

[BenBurch]

delete

[BenBurch]

From; http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

Still Blue.

[RandFan]

Originally Posted by BenBurch

Another blue one just added. Obama at +3.9

Romney has to be wondering what went wrong.

It's too early to tell but perhaps the decision by SCOTUS has given Obamacare some gravitas and people are wondering what will happen to their benefits if the law is repealed.

[MattusMaximus]

Originally Posted by RandFan

It's too early to tell but perhaps the decision by SCOTUS has given Obamacare some gravitas and people are wondering what will happen to their benefits if the law is repealed.

I agree. The ruling clearly put the wind at President Obama's back and has presented a big challenge for Romney, especially when the debates come up. I cannot wait to see the issue of health care reform come up in the debates, and President Obama can turn to Romney and say, flat out, "You got a better plan? What is it?" Then the onus is on Romney and the Republicans to address that question, rather than just rant and rail against "Obamacare" - the undecideds will be watching Romney's answer (or non-answer) closely, methinks.

Incidentally, since the ruling, President Obama is up at the Iowa Electronic Market and Romney is down. Same thing over at Intrade. Seems to dovetail with the aggregated polls over at RCP

[RandFan]

Originally Posted by MattusMaximus

I agree. The ruling clearly put the wind at President Obama's back and has presented a big challenge for Romney, especially when the debates come up. I cannot wait to see the issue of health care reform come up in the debates, and President Obama can turn to Romney and say, flat out, "You got a better plan? What is it?" Then the onus is on Romney and the Republicans to address that question, rather than just rant and rail against "Obamacare" - the undecideds will be watching Romney's answer (or non-answer) closely, methinks.

Which BTW raises the question, if Romney has a better plan why didn't he implement it in Massachusetts. Romney fought for and then defended that mandate.

Quote:

Incidentally, since the ruling, President Obama is up at the Iowa Electronic Market and Romney is down. Same thing over at Intrade. Seems to dovetail with the aggregated polls over at RCP

[BenBurch]

If this were a sea battle, Obama stole Romney's wind and has now crossed his T.

[Puppycow]

The major potential hazard for Obama remains the economy. There are 4, maybe 5 more monthly unemployment reports to come before the election. After a strong start to the year, the last few have been getting progressively worse. If that trend continues, bad news.