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#1 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 26,200
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Do U-Haul rates reflect population migration or economic health of various regions?
Define "bad"? I mean, aside from your personal tastes. You see, the thing about Texas is, well, people vote with their feet, too. And how are they voting? Well, the price to rent a 10' U-haul from Boston to Houston is currently $1731. The price from Houston to Boston is $738. Why the price differential? Because of a demand differentia: more people want to move from Boston to Houston than from Houston to Bostonl. And it's not just Boston either. Try it with any major blue-state city. The differences vary, but every one I price comes out significantly more expensive to move to Houston than from Houston. Evidently, people don't share your opinion of Texas. And that includes people not currently living in Texas. Plus, as already mentioned, Cynthia McKinney. |
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"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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#2 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Falconer, NY
Posts: 9,666
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You got all that from the price of U-haul rentals? Apart from all the other possible confounding factors? And extrapolated that sample of two cities for all of Texas?
Ok, milk costs me a little over $2 here, so tell me about how Texans hate milk. ![]() As for definitions of 'bad', Tricky seemed to list a bunch of stuff in the OP that he found objectionable. How much teaching evolution in school is 'aside from personal taste' might come down to personal taste. |
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Circled nothing is still nothing. "Nothing will stop the U.S. from being a world leader, not even a handful of adults who want their kids to take science lessons from a book that mentions unicorns six times." -UNLoVedRebel Mumpsimus: a stubborn person who insists on making an error in spite of being shown that it is wrong |
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#3 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 26,200
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I'm looking at large city to large city, because that's what's comparable. And it's not just Boston, try it with another large city of your choosing.
But more importantly, there are no confounding factors which can account for more than a factor of 2 difference in the price. The price differential is due to a demand differential. When Uhaul has more one-ways in one direction than another, they need to ship those trucks back to keep inventories balanced, and that costs money. A lot of money. That's why demand differentials show up so strongly in one-way Uhaul rentals. But there is no such price differential for local Uhaul rentals. Renting a Uhaul for an in-town move in Boston is the same as an in-town move in Houston. That's why they can advertise a single price on their website without reference to location: demand differentials for in-town moves don't impose the huge costs that demand differentials in one-way moves do. |
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"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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#4 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Falconer, NY
Posts: 9,666
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__________________
Circled nothing is still nothing. "Nothing will stop the U.S. from being a world leader, not even a handful of adults who want their kids to take science lessons from a book that mentions unicorns six times." -UNLoVedRebel Mumpsimus: a stubborn person who insists on making an error in spite of being shown that it is wrong |
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#5 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 26,200
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__________________
"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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#6 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 4,774
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OK I did L.A. to Boston - $2,954.00
And Boston to L.A. - $1,478.00 So by your logic more people are moving to Boston from L.A. right? But L.A. is the 12th quickest growing city in America and Boston isn't even in the top 25? Link From that link
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__________________
“... there is no shame in not knowing. The problem arises when irrational thought and attendant behavior fill the vacuum left by ignorance.” ― Neil deGrasse Tyson |
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#7 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 26,200
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By my logic, yes, more people are moving from LA to Boston than from Boston to LA. You haven't presented any evidence that this is not true.
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I still contend that U-Haul rates are a decent proxy for the direction of such inter-city migration, for reasons I already explained.
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__________________
"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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#8 |
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grumpy old skeptic
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Deep in the rain
Posts: 18,513
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__________________
The Power to Quit |
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#9 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 4,774
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I presented the exact same evidence you presented for people moving from Boston to Houston. Why should my burden off proof be greater than yours?
FTFY You have no evidence for this. I don't have to prove a negative. You have yet to prove your claim. That said I think a lot of things can explain it such as time of year (college kids relocating), state and other taxes including property, insurance costs, fleet repair facilities, proximity to major hubs, labor costs, facilities costs, and of course a more complex business model than you ascribe them. |
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“... there is no shame in not knowing. The problem arises when irrational thought and attendant behavior fill the vacuum left by ignorance.” ― Neil deGrasse Tyson |
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#10 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 26,200
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__________________
"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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#11 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 4,774
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__________________
“... there is no shame in not knowing. The problem arises when irrational thought and attendant behavior fill the vacuum left by ignorance.” ― Neil deGrasse Tyson |
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#12 |
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grumpy old skeptic
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Deep in the rain
Posts: 18,513
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__________________
The Power to Quit |
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#13 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 26,200
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Who said it was any different? I accept that the U-Haul evidence presented suggests more people move from LA to Boston than from Boston to LA. I have no reason to believe that this is not true. Neither do you.
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Yeah, that's a real complex business model they've got there.
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__________________
"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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#14 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 26,200
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__________________
"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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#15 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 4,774
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Yes I do. If thats true its bucks the overall trend of more people moving to L.A. on a whole. Uhaul rates are NOT an indicator of a population movement that completely contradicts population movements that are backed by actual data.
Try again. You used uhaul rental rates to back up your claim that people are flooding to texas from all over the US, citing Boston to Houston rates specifically. I used actual sourced information to show that the key to the population growth in Texas is immigrants settling there and not Americans moving there thus even if your Uhaul argument made sense it would only account for a fraction of the population increase as it doesn't make sense at all it accounts for nothing. Cities it is cheaper to move to from Houston. 1. Phoenix 2. Los Angeles 3. Seatle Do you need me to go on? Their interstate rates are obviously based on a more complex model then just "Where are the most people moving." Because this is obvious it is not reliable evidence to cite these rates as evidence of population shift. You have failed twice. You misunderstand the cause of Texas population growth and you use obviously unrelated information to try and affirm your misunderstanding. |
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“... there is no shame in not knowing. The problem arises when irrational thought and attendant behavior fill the vacuum left by ignorance.” ― Neil deGrasse Tyson |
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#16 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 26,200
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But your own source indicates that the growth of LA is driven by immigrants. The overall trend, by your own source, is being driven by something different than what I'm interested in finding out. So it cannot tell us what I want to know, and is therefore irrelevant.
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__________________
"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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#17 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 8,615
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Seems kind of strange to complain about appeals to worse problems, when the question at hand is what problem do people actually think is worse...
... Me? I prefer an hour with a full bladder to a minute with a kidney stone. Oh, wait--appeal to worse problems, a fallacy! Guess I should prefer the kidney stone instead. |
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#18 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 4,774
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Adding data that disproves your theory isn't a straw man its evidence that refutes your claims.
I am not buying your uhaul theory and I don't think many others are either. ETA: I don't think the extreme teabagger politics of Texas is what is drawing new immigrants to settle there. |
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“... there is no shame in not knowing. The problem arises when irrational thought and attendant behavior fill the vacuum left by ignorance.” ― Neil deGrasse Tyson |
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#19 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 26,200
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But it doesn't disprove my theory. You have shown data which addresses something different than my claim. It's therefore not logically possible for your data to disprove my claim. This is such a colossal logic failure on your part that your continued repetition of it, despite having the error explained to you, is rather troubling. You're clearly not equipped to handle this debate.
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__________________
"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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#20 |
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Illuminator
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 4,774
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Here is your theory because I think you have forgotten it.
And then you jump to this conclusion. One that is not born out by the larger numbers or any statistical data. Just the price uhaul is charging. This claim is an absurd conclusion to jump to but you dont just jump to it you double down on your theory!I have already shown that Seattle and L.A. are cheaper the other way around so obviously you didn't even investigate your own theory to deeply. The highlighted part is perhaps the best part as you are implying that people are fleeing blue states for the tea party politics of Texas otherwise why would you have added the caveat "blue-state city?" Your theory: People are leaving blue states for Texas Your evidence: The price of a uhaul truck to Houston from a few cherry picked blue-state cities. Now based on the actual causes for the population growth in Houston and a random sampling of uhaul rates I don't think your theory holds any water. I don't think politics is the reason for the the move as you imply and I don't think uhaul rates are based on such consideration alone. Provide us with 1 demographic study that cites uhaul rates. I will give you a hint: You need to show how many uhauls left Boston for Houston and vice versa if you want to correlate the rates to population shifts. I wouldn't bother though as I may as well claim that people in Houston want to eat at wolfgang pucks and my proof is that is costs less to rent a uhaul to L.A. then one from L.A. its just silly. |
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“... there is no shame in not knowing. The problem arises when irrational thought and attendant behavior fill the vacuum left by ignorance.” ― Neil deGrasse Tyson |
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#21 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 26,200
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What are you talking about? It's cheaper to go from Houston to LA than LA to Houston ($803 vs. $1243). And it's cheaper to go from Houston to Seattle than Seattle to Houston ($761 vs. $1368). That matches what I claimed. Do you even have any clue whatsoever as to what I'm even saying?
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__________________
"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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#22 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 8,615
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Fair enough. And what is it when someone points out that Houston may not be as horrible as you might think, given that many people seem to prefer it to Boston?
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#23 |
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Village Idiot.
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Green Mountains
Posts: 6,284
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I've never thought of Houston as being horrible. But what makes you think people prefer living there than Boston? On a lark, I did a quick search on "quality of life index" and the first global survey I found listed Boston as the 36th most livable city on earth (and #3 in the USA, behind Honolulu and SF), well ahead of Houston. Surely you're not equating preference with sheer size?
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Another Shameless Googlebomb Plug for www.stopsylvia.com |
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#24 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 8,615
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#25 |
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grumpy old skeptic
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Deep in the rain
Posts: 18,513
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__________________
The Power to Quit |
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#26 |
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Monkey
Posts: 30,092
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Um, renting a Uhaul truck and moving yourself isn't the only way to relocate. Indeed, if your'e moving for a particularly good job, sometimes your employer foots the bill and hires professionals to do all the work and driving.
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One cannot expect wisdom to flow from a pumpkin. |
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#27 |
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Gatekeeper of The Left
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: The Universe 35.2 ms ahead of this one.
Posts: 32,184
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U-Hauls seasonally track the academic year. That is the big thing you need to factor out.
Next thing you need to realize is that there is a contrarian effect at work here. People who move to a good job usually can afford movers or have them provided if we are talking a professional situation. Those are not U-Haul. For that look at, for example, Mayflower or some other nationwide mover. On the other hand, people who have lost their really good jobs and pretty much everything they had usually move home to Mom's towing U-Haul. |
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Are you IN? Join the IN crowd now! |
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#28 |
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grumpy old skeptic
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Deep in the rain
Posts: 18,513
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Ahh, here is is. Let us consider the simplistic analysis used to justify the nonsensical claim in the op:
1) The rental company wants to try to keep traffic as balanced as they can. 2) They can charge a lot more in an affluent area 3) They can't possibly charge nearly that much from people trying to escape a blighted area. 4) Obviously, they will charge much, much less in the blighted area, just to get their trucks back where they belong. So much for the absurd, irrational claim in the op. |
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The Power to Quit |
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#29 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 26,200
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So they charge lots of money to affluent people who are moving to blighted areas. Why are these affluent people moving to blighted areas? And the people who are leaving blighted areas to move to affluent areas and don't have the money to pay much to move... how is it that they can afford to move to affluent areas?
Your theory doesn't actually make sense. Especially since local rates are the same in both affluent areas and blighted areas. |
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__________________
"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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#30 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 26,200
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Actually, the prices don't seasonally track the academic year. They're flat. I just priced the same Houston to Seattle trip for every month between now and next June (the farthest they have available) and the price is exactly the same, regardless of date. So I'm not sure why you think that has anything to do with the price differential.
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"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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#31 |
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Sarcastic Conqueror of Notions
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: A floating island above the clouds
Posts: 23,835
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People hurting and looking for jobs hit the road without necessaly having one, or having one and not having a nice executive move package.
Exactly the kind of people who rent a U-Haul. People got on ships to the US by the millions without a job lined up. I would submit your scenario is the vast exception rather than the rule. I'd love to datamine the records of U-Haul and Mayflower both. BTW the real Mayflower folks didn't have jobs lined up, either.
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"Great innovations should not be forced [by way of] slender majorities." - Thomas Jefferson The government should nationalize it! Socialized, single-payer video game development and sales now! More, cheaper, better games, right? Right? |
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#32 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 26,200
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BTW, U-Haul's own website backs up my theory about the cause of the difference.
http://reservations.uhaul.com/resweb...aspx#calculate
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__________________
"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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#33 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Sunny Leith
Posts: 6,148
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#34 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 26,200
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Well, no. First off, see my previous post where U-Haul states that they do exactly what I said they do in terms of adjusting prices because of differing demands. And second, seasonal variations due to factors like kids moving to/from college are cyclic and predictable, so if they were important then U-Haul could incorporate them into its pricing in advance. But the net flow of demand cannot be easily predicted in advance. If it changes, then U-Haul can adjust their rates at that time, but they won't do so ahead of time since they have little basis for predicting how it will change. And if the timescale for it changing is longer than the typical reservation lead time, then there's not much need to incorporate that into current reservation pricing even if they did have some idea of how it would change.
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__________________
"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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#35 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Sunny Leith
Posts: 6,148
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Really? Did the business only start this year, or do they perhaps have access to historic information? Are there no seasonally predictable factors that would influence demand?
Strange how other transport businesses somehow manage to predict travel patterns and amend their pricing accordingly. Is U-Haul really so badly run or have such antiquated systems that it can't change its prices dynamically to reflect both predicted demand changes and to update those predictions based on actual booking experience? |
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#36 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 26,200
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They can change their pricing any time they want to, as often as they want to. But I don't have access to that information. I only have access to what the pricing is right now. And right now they don't vary the pricing for reservations made today, regardless of when the reservation is for.
But I find it strange that you're still trying to contest the dominance of net traffic flow in pricing differentials when U-Haul themselves tell us that. However accurate or inaccurate my deductions about their pricing model may be, I don't know why you don't believe them, After all, they do know rather authoritatively. |
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"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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#37 |
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 5,797
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#38 |
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grumpy old skeptic
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Deep in the rain
Posts: 18,513
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I notice that dissembling has replaced argument. It's obvious that when it's convenient, the people making absurd claims are willing to abandon free market ideals.
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The Power to Quit |
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#39 |
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Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 26,200
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__________________
"As long as it is admitted that the law may be diverted from its true purpose -- that it may violate property instead of protecting it -- then everyone will want to participate in making the law, either to protect himself against plunder or to use it for plunder. Political questions will always be prejudicial, dominant, and all-absorbing. There will be fighting at the door of the Legislative Palace, and the struggle within will be no less furious." - Bastiat, The Law |
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#40 |
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Philosopher
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: 16 miles from 7 lakes
Posts: 8,447
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The free-market does rule for U-haul.
If you are moving to East Bugspit, ND, you can expect to pay more, simply because the U-Haul guy in East Bugspit has to pay to get the excess inventory off his lot and over to a place that needs it. I moved my stuff from Tulsa, OK to Aledo, TX (Just an apartment worth-Contractors often use U-Haul because they move so much). The cost to Aledo was about $50 LESS than to Fort Worth (20 miles) because the Ft Worth guy had too many trailers on his lot, and Aledo was near empty. IF they do not have enough people going out of a place, they have to pay to move the things around so that there are enough in any one place to supply the people who need them. |
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"Political correctness is a doctrine,...,which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end." "I pointed out that his argument was wrong in every particular, but he rightfully took me to task for attacking only the weak points." Myriad http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?postid=6853275#post6853275 |
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