Implications of Scottish Independence

[Francesca R]

If it was "Scotland's oil" and Scotland was in an FX union with England (+Wales+NI), then I don't think North Sea oil does back the £ any more because England doesn't have any claim on it. If--say--the two economies diverged with England sinking and Scotland booming then there would still be pressure on the currency union, absent some plege by Scotland to mutualise debt in that situation (bail England out), which is not exactly likely.

[funk de fino]

Well, well......

Quote:

The anti-independence parties have today been left red-faced after it emerged the independent Electoral Commission has thrown out their attempts to hijack the referendum process.

Just a day after the anti-independence parties announced they were to draft a question for the independence referendum and submit it to the Electoral Commission for testing, the Commission has said it is not prepared to look at such a question – confirming that it is for the Scottish Government to make proposals.

Commenting, SNP Campaigns Director Angus Robertson said:

“This is an utter humiliation for the Tories and the rest of the anti-independence parties, whose ham-fisted attempts to hijack the referendum process have fallen flat at the first hurdle.

“The Electoral Commission has made clear that it is for the Scottish Government to propose the question and the Scottish Parliament to approve it, which is exactly what is happening.

“It was embarrassing enough to see Ruth Davidson trying to back out of describing the Scottish Government’s proposed question as ‘fair and decisive’ but now we see her attempts to propose another question completely discredited.

“This is a boomerang for the anti-independence parties who tried to narrow people’s options in the referendum before we’ve even seen the outcome of the Scottish Government’s consultation.

“The Tory-led cabal which Labour and the LibDems have signed up to will not hijack Scotland’s referendum. It will be the people of Scotland who will decide Scotland’s future and will not be fooled by this Tory-led campaign

[Damien Evans]

Originally Posted by funk de fino

Well, well......

How embarrassing.

[Captain_Snort]

Is anyone else listening to World at One on Radio 4? Seems the unionists are trying to bring up the Olympics as a case for keeping union. Making up spurious claims and spoiling a sporting event with politics.

[Rolfe]

I didn't hear it, but I recall from a long time ago that the only "positive argument for the union" anyone ever really came up with was the advantage in team sports, that good Scottish athletes got to play in better teams.

As a killer argument for remaining in a political union that is otherwise disadvantageous, I have to say it lacks a certain je ne sais quois.

Rolfe.

[Captain_Snort]

The unionist bloke was bringing up quotes by Eck he made in 2004 about London should pay for a London Olympics and not rely upon money from Westminster and the lottery to put forward his argument that the SNP were anti Olympics.

Its here at 12 minutes in.

[Rolfe]

I suppose the unionist parties are anti the Commonwealth Games?

Rolfe.

ETA: Deep embarrassment over just-noticed typo in previous post.

[funk de fino]

Originally Posted by Captain_Snort

The unionist bloke was bringing up quotes by Eck he made in 2004 about London should pay for a London Olympics and not rely upon money from Westminster and the lottery to put forward his argument that the SNP were anti Olympics.

Its here at 12 minutes in.

Yet he was strutting aroud the opening ceremony. I would have preferred him to stay away.

[The Fifer]

I got two raffle ticket books from the SNP for the 2012 conference draw. The draw to take place at the conference Sunday 21st October at the SNP Annual Conference, Perth Concert Hall, Perth in Scotland.
The prize is for a Peugeot 208 Access+ car, I've got 10 and my wee lassie has got 10 as well. I don't really need a new car but it would make a good present for my wee lass.
I would like a raffle ticket for 2014 with the first prize being Independence......
I can't go as I have to work, got a new job at Amazon warehouse in Dunfermline and doing overtime to pay for christmas, birthdays and doing the house up.

[Soapy Sam]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotlan...itics-19588938

It seems very strange that there is no simple , clear rule re what happens to the "fragments" of an EU member state, regarding their future membership. Or maybe there is.

I don't say Eck is guilty of a cover up, or of misleading the public, but it seems probable there will be similar complications relating to more of the unspecified matters raised in this thread and other places.

I note the press have not made the obvious observation that WENI would be as much a "new entry" as Scotland- and nobody seems to be raising that point. But unless Eck et al want to catch much more similar flack, they need to get the facts straight and in the public domain, before their opponents get to spin their versions.

[richardm]

Originally Posted by Alex Salmond

independent Scotland's status in the EU would be made clearer next year.

Yeah, I noticed that yesterday. I thought there was no question about it at all?

Quote:

The first minister also said he would be breaching the ministerial code by disclosing legal advice on the issue.

Really?!

Edit:

Originally Posted by The Scottish Ministerial Code

2.30 The fact that legal advice has been given to the Scottish Government (by the Law
Officers or anyone else), and the content of any such advice, is not revealed outwith the
Scottish Government without the Law Officers' prior consent.

So he could, if the Law Officers agreed to it. Why would they not do so if asked, I wonder?

[Rolfe]

In terms of actual reality and practical politics, I can't imagine any realistic scenario in which the EU would seek to exclude a newly-independent Scotland for any period of time exceeding a possible notional five minutes. Realpolitik also governs what actually happens after that. Sweden has shown that joining the Euro is not compulsory, and in fact Scotland is not in a position to fulfil the entry requirements for the Euro anyway, not having her own currency. If England continues to refuse to join Schengen, then there's no way the EU would insist on a country whose only land border is with England joining Schengen rather than the British Isles zone.

What we are hearing at the moment is no more than political posturing on all sides. European officials don't want to commit themselves and so be seen as taking sides in the independence debate. Unionists simply add "expulsion from the EU" to the rest of the interminable list of scare stories.

Nobody is going to be deprived of their EU passports and citizenship, and the EU is not going to let a state with Scotland's resources slip from its grasp.

Rolfe.

[Nessie]

But is Scotland not supposed to be like Norway? So not in the EU.

Is not one of the reasons why Scotland should be independent to stop the rest of the UK plundering Scottish wealth? So should Scotland not avoid the EU doing the same?

[Rolfe]

The point about independence is self-determination. Alex Salmond is pro-Europe, and would stand in 2016 on a pro-Europe platform. However, if the SNP lost that election to a party which was standing on a platform of taking Scotland out of Europe, that would mean nothing.

This current discussion is not about that. It is about whether an independent Scotland will be able to remain in the EU on independence, if it so wishes. For many different reasons, the practical answer to that is yes. It's just that it isn't in a lot of people's interests for that to be too clear at the moment.

Rolfe.

[Nessie]

If you don't want England to plunder Scottish wealth, why join the EU and let them do it?

[Rolfe]

There are advantages to being part of a "club" of independent states which simply don't apply to the incorporating union with England. However, that's not really the point at issue. The point at issue is whether a newly-independent Scotland would be forced out of the EU on day one of independence, and required to re-apply as a new applicant if she wanted to join.

Rolfe.

[Aber]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

There are advantages to being part of a "club" of independent states which simply don't apply to the incorporating union with England.

Like what?

[Rolfe]

This is being widely discussed on a number of independence blogs, from both points of view. I don't particularly want to go off on a derail, when the actual point is whether or not Scotland will be permitted to choose to remain in the EU after independence.

Rolfe.

[Aber]

Why is it a derail? If you can't explain why it's good to be in the EU, but not in the Union, you're not going to win the vote.

[Rolfe]

It's a non-sequitur. The vote is about self-determination. The only way we get to decide whether or not we want to be in the EU or the EFTA or whatever is if we have the right to decide our own destiny.

Far too many people are running around saying, I only want independence if we are in the EU, or are not in the EU, or are a monarchy, or are a republic, or get rid of Trident, or have a Labour government in perpetuity, and so on. This is a profound misunderstanding of what self-determination is about.

Rolfe.

[Aber]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

This is a profound misunderstanding of what self-determination is about.

Not to people who are concerned about outcome, rather than process.

I'd guess more people are concerned about what an independent Scotland would look like, than the simple fact of independence. Given the suggestions that Scotland would keep the monarchy and the pound, the politicians recognise this too.

Don't confuse the views of activists concerned about political process with the views of most of the public.

[Rolfe]

I'm not. But I'm still not going to get into a detailed pro-and-con EU discussion on this thread, when the actual topic as raised was something quite different.

Rolfe.

[Last of the Fraggles]

Originally Posted by Aber

Why is it a derail? If you can't explain why it's good to be in the EU, but not in the Union, you're not going to win the vote.

And yet the Unionists would have us believe that being in the EU is bad but being in the Union is good?

[Rolfe]

Germany, and France, and Denmark, and the Netherlands, and Sweden and a whole bunch of other quite disparate countries think being in the EU is a good deal for them, for one reason or another. (I'm damn sure none of them would voluntarily enter into the sort of deal we're stuck with in relation to England - hey Denmark, just pass all your assets to Germany in return for a fixed sum in pocket money and you too can be one of the Lander, won't that be great?)

The Norwegian government firmly believes it would be a good deal for Norway also, but it can't get that proposition past the population. Tough, that's democracy for you. The Swiss government feels rather similarly.

Now there may be a special reason why it would be a bad deal for Scotland. I think that's a sterile argument at the moment. The actual point at issue is, should we as EU citizens for over 40 years be stripped of our EU citizenship on independence day, whether we like it or not.

The unionists like to play the false scare story that we would. While at the same time telling us that (unlike all the countries listed above) we won't actually be independent unless we leave the EU anyway.

Not biting.

Rolfe.

[Nessie]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

It's a non-sequitur. The vote is about self-determination. The only way we get to decide whether or not we want to be in the EU or the EFTA or whatever is if we have the right to decide our own destiny.

Far too many people are running around saying, I only want independence if we are in the EU, or are not in the EU, or are a monarchy, or are a republic, or get rid of Trident, or have a Labour government in perpetuity, and so on. This is a profound misunderstanding of what self-determination is about.

Rolfe.

That just reads as lets get independence and worry about the rest afterwards. Sorry, but I am not prepared to vote for independence just for the sake of being independent. I want to know how it is going to work out and whether it will be a good thing or not overall.

Rolfe, I take it you would vote for independence no matter what, even if Scotland ended up as some backwater, struggling to maintain decent services?

[Nessie]

RE the EU, my understanding is that Scotland would need to enter with the present arrangements, so it would have to get past a vote and take on the Euro.

There may be an issue of getting voted in as Spain, for fear of Basque independence claims could vote against Scotland's entry.

Then in joining the Euro, Scotland's oil wealth could disappear to help bail out Greece and others.

To ignore such fears and not have detailed answers to such questions will hopefully be the Nationalists undoing.

[Rolfe]

Your understanding is wrong, it's that simple.

Rolfe.

[Soapy Sam]

Originally Posted by Nessie

That just reads as lets get independence and worry about the rest afterwards. Sorry, but I am not prepared to vote for independence just for the sake of being independent. I want to know how it is going to work out and whether it will be a good thing or not overall.

This neatly summarises what I hear from the many (now pushing 50) people I have asked about the issue. All are Scottish born or resident in Scotland.
So far I have 2 who admit to excitement about the idea. Two! I think they would vote "yes" if it meant marching straight into hell.

Over 30 disapprove from mildly to strongly. (A few were so vague it was hard to tell what they thought. I include them as anti- because they don't want change of any sort except more money). *

The rest, (about 36%) are in favour to varying degrees, but all have expressed uncertainties which would make or break the idea for them. The reasons vary hugely as you would expect, but all these folk feel the issues are being ignored or not explained.

Now Nicola (Not Benedetti- the other one) has been made official door-to-door saleswoman, we may start to see answers to some of these questions emerging. It will be interesting to see which way these answers swing the punters.


* In fairness- a number of the "no"s were pretty vague about why they thought the idea was bad. They just knew it was. I'm not saying either side has the overwhelming logic on it's side, but the antis were in virtually every case firmly (sometimes vehemently) opposed, whereas almost all of the "pro"s were extremely tentative.
I suppose this is the usual situation- inertia and caution are against change. What has surprised me though is how rare it is to find any Scot not an active SNP supporter already who is volubly enthusiastic about the idea. Of my two enthusiasts, one has been an SNP member for thirty years. The other I don't know. He's a college lecturer.

[Architect]

I do tend to thank that many people will take a long look at where they will be financially better off and vote accordingly. It is essential that the "Yes" campaign address this if they are to be successful.

[funk de fino]

'Tis better to have loved and lost
Than never to have loved at all

Tennyson

Don't be cowards, pessimists and glass half empties all your life. We're better than that.

[Aber]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

The actual point at issue is, should we as EU citizens for over 40 years be stripped of our EU citizenship on independence day, whether we like it or not.

The unionists like to play the false scare story that we would. While at the same time telling us that (unlike all the countries listed above) we won't actually be independent unless we leave the EU anyway.

Not biting.

Surely you should be arguing that the Scottish people should vote on whether Scotland should remain in the EU on independence day, rather than taking it as a given?

[Rolfe]

You still seem very confused. I'll leave you to think about it.

Rolfe.

[Nessie]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

Your understanding is wrong, it's that simple.

Rolfe.

So what will happen?

[Nessie]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

You still seem very confused. I'll leave you to think about it.

Rolfe.

A confusion which would not be there if the Nationalists had sat down with the EU, negotiated exactly what would happen and then let us know the outcome.

Otherwise you must surely see why fears arise that Scotland independent in the EU could be worse off than Scotland as part of the UK in EU.

Asking people to vote for something that has not be fully researched and thought through, that is now another reason why I will vote against independence.

[funk de fino]

Originally Posted by Aber

Surely you should be arguing that the Scottish people should vote on whether Scotland should remain in the EU on independence day, rather than taking it as a given?

Exactly how many questions would you like on the ballot paper? I fear the Unionists may diagree with you if you add anymore.

[funk de fino]

Originally Posted by Nessie

A confusion which would not be there if the Nationalists had sat down with the EU, negotiated exactly what would happen and then let us know the outcome.

Otherwise you must surely see why fears arise that Scotland independent in the EU could be worse off than Scotland as part of the UK in EU.

Asking people to vote for something that has not be fully researched and thought through, that is now another reason why I will vote against independence.

I bet your vacations are a barrel of laughs.

[Soapy Sam]

Originally Posted by funk de fino

'Tis better to have loved and lost
Than never to have loved at all

Tennyson

Don't be cowards, pessimists and glass half empties all your life. We're better than that.

This attitude will not help your case. Some people are, unquestionably, going to vote "no", out of fear of the unknown. If the SNP could allay those fears with hard information, yet fail to do so, they have only themselves to blame if the vote is "no".
What I'm hearing is that most people who might be in favour have perfectly reasonable concerns which are likely to make them vote "no". Calling them cowards is just inaccurate, as well as rude.

Originally Posted by funk de fino

I bet your vacations are a barrel of laughs.

And there you go again. If you are trying to get Nessie on your side, this is a strange way to do it.

[Rolfe]

I don't think Nessie is going to vote yes, no matter what anyone says. There's plenty time to explore the detailed issues with people who are willing to be persuaded.

Here's an article about the EU issue. Yes, it's NNS otherwise spin city, but since the other views posted have been serious spin in the opposite direction, then it's a reasonable article to redress the balance.

http://newsnetscotland.com/index.php...bed-as-qassetq

Rolfe.

[Nessie]

An interesting article. So an EU insider thinks Scotland is "an asset". So instead of supposedly all Scotland's wealth going to the rest of the UK, it will head off to Greece and others in dire need.

Then there is the precedent set by St Martin and Saint Barthélemy who left French rule, but remained in the EU as they had already been under French rule. So that does suggest Scotland will automatically remain in the EU with the opt outs and conditions the UK has. All we need now is for the Nationalists to get that set in stone with a signed agreement with the EU.

But until that starts to happen, I am not prepared to vote yes. Otherwise it is like voting Conservative just because you are in a family who vote Conservative and that is the end of it. I look at policies and vote accordingly, not for one party blindly no matter what.

[Nessie]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

I don't think Nessie is going to vote yes, no matter what anyone says. There's plenty time to explore the detailed issues with people who are willing to be persuaded.

.....

Which by your own argument rules you out of the debate as we all know which way you will vote, no matter the arguments.