How to count the people who believe Obama will cancel the election?

[Ladewig]

While poking around the different corners of the internet, I have discovered that some people are very concerned about the possibility of President Obama cancelling the November election in an effort to hold power as a dictator.

I was thinking about how difficult it might be to actually determine the number of people who hold that belief. I cannot expect that telephone surveys would be very accurate. From what I can gather of the folks holding that position, if a pollster called and asked that question they might fear that Obama's minions are gathering data about who to send to the FEMA death camps. Also, people who have never considered that opinion might be swayed by a pollster asking the question - "I have never had that concern, but now that you mention it, it does sound like something to be worried about."

I am not looking for a precise number, I just want to get within two orders of magnitude. Is it hundreds of people, tens of thousands of people, millions of people? Is there any way to use some sort of evidence to support a broad estimate?

[Horatius]

Quote:

How to count the people who believe Obama will cancel the election?

I suggest a series of nights drinking in red neck bars throughout the US, and listening to what the drunk idiots are going on about.

[Puppycow]

Originally Posted by Ladewig

While poking around the different corners of the internet, I have discovered that some people are very concerned about the possibility of President Obama cancelling the November election in an effort to hold power as a dictator.

I'm guessing Infowars/PrisonPlanet, NaturalNews and WND among others?

Quote:

I am not looking for a precise number, I just want to get within two orders of magnitude. Is it hundreds of people, tens of thousands of people, millions of people? Is there any way to use some sort of evidence to support a broad estimate?

Guesstimation. I would posit that it's roughly the same number as the number of Birthers. Surveys have been done of this.

Somewhere between 10 and 25% of the adult population.

ETA: Alternatively you could estimate the readership of the sites which promote this theory.
If you want a number based on actual empirical evidence though, I think you will need to conduct a scientific poll. The problems you mentioned are still problems, but there's no other empirical way that I'm aware of.

[Scott Sommers]

The same crap was going around in 2004 and 2008 that Bush would declare martial law and cancel the election. This has been tied into how how he blew up the WTC with thermite or something and launched an anthrax attack against America. It seems to be one of the accusations during election time from the wackos. I wouldn't worry about it too much, unless you're the kind of guy who thinks Obama was really born in Kenya or holds gay coke parties in the White House or is connected to the Anti-Christ or whatever you want to say....

[MG1962]

Originally Posted by Ladewig

While poking around the different corners of the internet,

link?

[Alareth]

The version I've heard recently is that Obama, which was spread be a member of the Tennessee state legislature to his constituents, and the DHS will stage a fake assassination attempt and then put the election on hold while they "Investigate" who was behind it.

ETA: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/0...n_1725053.html

[Ladewig]

Originally Posted by MG1962

link?

The first place I saw it was under the reader comments on the story that Robert Prey linked to in his parody-but-not-parody thread about President Obama's college records.

scroll down to mwhaley
http://www.theblaze.com/contribution...s-at-columbia/


I fully understand that this is kooky talk, I was just trying to count the kooks in this country.

[Scott Sommers]

There are many different versions of this floating around in nut bar land. Check out Facebook. They've been banging around there for years. Did you know that Mexican gangsters took over a Texas town? That's because you're feeding into the right channels. Facebook. That's where the cool stuff is.

[Ladewig]

Originally Posted by Alareth

The version I've heard recently is that Obama, which was spread be a member of the Tennessee state legislature to his constituents, and the DHS will stage a fake assassination attempt and then put the election on hold while they "Investigate" who was behind it.

ETA: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/0...n_1725053.html

Eeeeeew.

Usually I am pretty good at not asking questions that I do not want to know the answer to, but this time I ********** up.
********** up


ETA:

Wait. Our auto-censor is so sensitive that four asterisks followed by -ed has to be turned into ten asterisks?! WTF ?!

[Robrob]

Originally Posted by Scott Sommers

The same crap was going around in 2004 and 2008 that Bush would declare martial law and cancel the election. This has been tied into how how he blew up the WTC with thermite or something and launched an anthrax attack against America.

It's also a reflection of previous concerns. I've noticed many if not most of the more outrageous claims about Obama seem to be reflections of earlier claims made against Bush. E.G. Bush was demonstrably inarticulate so Obama is ridiculed for using a teleprompter (just like Bush did). Bush was an admitted alcoholic until his 40's and more or less admitted some drug use so Obama is pilloried for having tried cocaine in college.

In this instance, following 9/11, anthrax, two wars, a GWOT without end, VP declaring he was the fourth branch of government, etc... it was not completely beyond the realm of possibility something extra-Constitutional might occur in 2008. I do not recall anyone actively discussing this on the media.

Today, with wars winding down, no attacks, no crisis, there's really no reason at all to imagine such a situation arising. OTOH, I believe "some people" are discussing it in the media today regardless.

Originally Posted by Scott Sommers

There are many different versions of this floating around in nut bar land. Check out Facebook. They've been banging around there for years. Did you know that Mexican gangsters took over a Texas town? That's because you're feeding into the right channels. Facebook. That's where the cool stuff is.

You aren't kidding. I briefly participated in some of those forums and it was like wading through a sewer.

Originally Posted by Alareth

The version I've heard recently is that Obama, which was spread be a member of the Tennessee state legislature to his constituents, and the DHS will stage a fake assassination attempt and then put the election on hold while they "Investigate" who was behind it.

ETA: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/0...n_1725053.html

I don't know what's worse, that someone makes the absurd claim to "know" what would presumably be a super-duper top secret government plan or that an elected official is so ignorant as to pass it along to his constituents.

[Myron Proudfoot]

I heard variations of the same thing in 2000, that the Clintons were going to make themselves dictators or some such.

[Horatius]

Originally Posted by Myron Proudfoot

I heard variations of the same thing in 2000, that the Clintons were going to make themselves dictators or some such.

Yeah, this. For as long as I've been paying attention to these sorts of things, every president was about to use some pretext to cancel the election, and throw people into camps. These claims just get endlessly recycled, with no regard to who is actually in office, or what's actually going on in the world. There's always something they can point to as "the trigger" that will lead to martial law and mas executions.

[Bob001]

Stupidity is eternal. How would you count stupid people? I can recall mindless rumors (on paper, long pre-internet) that Nixon was somehow going to cancel the 1972 election, and responsible officials actually had to publicly say that, no, he wasn't, and he couldn't if he tried.
http://www.amazon.com/Does-Nixon-Wan.../dp/B0043C1HAI
http://www.cynical-c.com/2004/07/13/...972-elections/

People will believe what they want to believe, and the facts don't matter.

On the other hand, if you want to have a discussion about how elections with electronic voting machines that don't produce printed records could be rigged, that might at least have a kernel of possibility.

[Robrob]

Originally Posted by Horatius

Yeah, this. For as long as I've been paying attention to these sorts of things, every president was about to use some pretext to cancel the election, and throw people into camps. These claims just get endlessly recycled, with no regard to who is actually in office, or what's actually going on in the world. There's always something they can point to as "the trigger" that will lead to martial law and mas executions.

You are correct. I've read things from WWII claiming; "foreign troops" were training in the National Forests ready to take over the country and secret messages were embedded in common street signs to direct "foreign troops." Same exact rumors I heard during the militia craze of the 90's.

I've also seen "Obama Body Count" emails, just like the "Clinton Body Count" faxes I used to receive in the 90's.

Originally Posted by Bob001

On the other hand, if you want to have a discussion about how elections with electronic voting machines that don't produce printed records could be rigged, that might at least have a kernel of possibility.

Exactly, at least the facts there actually fit the (potential) danger.

[Ladewig]

Originally Posted by Robrob

I don't know what's worse, that someone makes the absurd claim to "know" what would presumably be a super-duper top secret government plan or that an elected official is so ignorant as to pass it along to his constituents.

Well, he either passed it along because he thought it had some credibility or he passed it along because he knew if the local Tea Party accused him of not being conservative enough he could point to his belief in Obama conspiracies.


..............

As for the topic, I guess the French are right plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by Myron Proudfoot

I heard variations of the same thing in 2000, that the Clintons were going to make themselves dictators or some such.

As people have pointed out, you get this rumor every election. Two things change;The name of the President who is going to do it and which group of Nutjobs buy into it,depending on the politics involved.

I remember in 2004 it was particularly widespread among the Left Wing types,though 2012 might catch up with it among the Right Wing types.

[BStrong]

Originally Posted by Ladewig

While poking around the different corners of the internet, I have discovered that some people are very concerned about the possibility of President Obama cancelling the November election in an effort to hold power as a dictator.

I was thinking about how difficult it might be to actually determine the number of people who hold that belief. I cannot expect that telephone surveys would be very accurate. From what I can gather of the folks holding that position, if a pollster called and asked that question they might fear that Obama's minions are gathering data about who to send to the FEMA death camps. Also, people who have never considered that opinion might be swayed by a pollster asking the question - "I have never had that concern, but now that you mention it, it does sound like something to be worried about."

I am not looking for a precise number, I just want to get within two orders of magnitude. Is it hundreds of people, tens of thousands of people, millions of people? Is there any way to use some sort of evidence to support a broad estimate?

Start looking at the usual suspects - far right/left nutjobs, infowars/prison planet etc.

It's all the same CT doomsday nonsense that gets floated every four years.

[aggle-rithm]

Originally Posted by Robrob

You are correct. I've read things from WWII claiming; "foreign troops" were training in the National Forests ready to take over the country and secret messages were embedded in common street signs to direct "foreign troops." Same exact rumors I heard during the militia craze of the 90's.

There was also a rumor back then...ridiculous, I know...that Roosevelt would run for a third or even a FOURTH term!

[FluffyPersian]

Originally Posted by Ladewig

While poking around the different corners of the internet, I have discovered that some people are very concerned about the possibility of President Obama cancelling the November election in an effort to hold power as a dictator.

I was thinking about how difficult it might be to actually determine the number of people who hold that belief. I cannot expect that telephone surveys would be very accurate. From what I can gather of the folks holding that position, if a pollster called and asked that question they might fear that Obama's minions are gathering data about who to send to the FEMA death camps. Also, people who have never considered that opinion might be swayed by a pollster asking the question - "I have never had that concern, but now that you mention it, it does sound like something to be worried about."

I am not looking for a precise number, I just want to get within two orders of magnitude. Is it hundreds of people, tens of thousands of people, millions of people? Is there any way to use some sort of evidence to support a broad estimate?

A snowball sample would probably be the best way since people like this are (1) rare and (2) likely to know one another.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowball_sampling

[Ladewig]

Originally Posted by FluffyPersian

A snowball sample would probably be the best way since people like this are (1) rare and (2) likely to know one another.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowball_sampling

Thank you .

That was the kind of answer I was looking for.
I didn't want to talk about how kooky this conspiracy is or how perennial it is; I wanted to know how to count people who have emotionally-charged kooky ideas and might be too paranoid to stand up to be counted..

[Ladewig]

Originally Posted by BStrong

Start looking at the usual suspects - far right/left nutjobs, infowars/prison planet etc.

Thank you. I had forgotten that Infowars sells this crap every four years no matter who is holding the office. They repackage it by saying this time it is much more serious than every other time. New and improved kookiness.

[Belz...]

Originally Posted by Ladewig

While poking around the different corners of the internet, I have discovered that some people are very concerned about the possibility of President Obama cancelling the November election in an effort to hold power as a dictator.

Yeah, they said that about Bush, too.

[Straw Man]

Originally Posted by Belz...

Yeah, they said that about Bush, too.

Like this article here.

[Ladewig]

Originally Posted by Belz...

Yeah, they said that about Bush, too.

Yes. And Clinton and others. I am not trying to talk about the kooky conspiracy theory, I am trying to talk about how many people believe the kooky (and perennial) conspiracy theory.

[FluffyPersian]

Originally Posted by Ladewig

Thank you .

That was the kind of answer I was looking for.
I didn't want to talk about how kooky this conspiracy is or how perennial it is; I wanted to know how to count people who have emotionally-charged kooky ideas and might be too paranoid to stand up to be counted..

A snowball sample would especially effective in the age of web 2.0, which makes referrals easier to get.

[Belz...]

Originally Posted by Ladewig

Yes. And Clinton and others. I am not trying to talk about the kooky conspiracy theory, I am trying to talk about how many people believe the kooky (and perennial) conspiracy theory.

I know. I was just thinking aloud.

[Spindrift]

Romney is feeding the trolls:

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/r...121325621.html

Quote:

The president seems to be running just to hang on to power. I think he will do anything in his power to try and get re-elected."

[Myriad]

It might be easier to wait until after the election, and then count the people who (if Obama won) claim the election was rigged, or the people who (if Romney won) claim that the entire process is meaningless anyway because both parties are controlled by the same interests. They are all the exact same people, so any one count will be valid for all.

Just don't ask follow-up questions like, "if the entire process is meaningless anyhow, then why did you think Obama would bother to cancel it?" Because that can induce sudden amnesia, identity disorders, and other severe psychological symptoms.

Respectfully,
Myriad

[Robrob]

Quote:

The president seems to be running just to hang on to power. I think he will do anything in his power to try and get re-elected."

Wow, way to state the obvious Mr. Romney...

Originally Posted by Myriad

It might be easier to wait until after the election, and then count the people who (if Obama won) claim the election was rigged, or the people who (if Romney won) claim that the entire process is meaningless anyway because both parties are controlled by the same interests. They are all the exact same people, so any one count will be valid for all.

If he wins, I 100% guarantee come December 2012, there will be a surge of "Obama stole the election" conspiracies. And it will be by the very same people who insisted no recount was required in the 2000 election (with a result nearly inside the margin of error).

[FluffyPersian]

Originally Posted by Myriad

It might be easier to wait until after the election, and then count the people who (if Obama won) claim the election was rigged, or the people who (if Romney won) claim that the entire process is meaningless anyway because both parties are controlled by the same interests. They are all the exact same people, so any one count will be valid for all.

Those aren't necessarily the same people who believe Obama will cancel the election. Due to legitimate issues with voting machines, registration of people in the military, etc, there will inevitably be more circumstantial evidence for a "rigged election" than one that will be cancelled altogether. So the "cancelled election" will very likely be a small subset of the "rigged election" group.