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Old 8th January 2013, 12:06 PM   #41
ThunderChunky
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Celsius or Fahrenheit?
American.
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Old 8th January 2013, 01:39 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by bobwtfomg View Post
One record high may well be anecdotal as are individual record lows, so it is neccesary to compare the two as was done in a study in 2009 in which it was found that there were twice as many record highs as lows in the US in the 2000-2009 period

https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news...lows-across-us
I find it interesting that these studies never seem to include the entire data set.

Surely they must have some data for the 20's, 30's, and 40's? I know we do in New York State.
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Old 8th January 2013, 02:17 PM   #43
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pretty stark and the records are clear



Quote:
As the climate has warmed during the past several decades, there has been a growing imbalance between record daily high temperatures in the contiguous U.S. and record daily lows. A study published in 2009 found that rather than a 1-to-1 ratio, as would be expected if the climate were not warming, the ratio has been closer to 2-to-1 in favor of warm temperature records during the past decade (2000-2009). This finding cannot be explained by natural climate variability alone, the study found, and is instead consistent with global warming.

When you look at individual years, the imbalance can be more stark. For example, through late June 2012, daily record highs were outnumbering record daily lows by a ratio of 9-to-1.

The study used computer models to project how the records ratios might shift in future decades as the amount of greenhouse gases in the air continues to increase. The results showed that the ratio of daily record highs to daily record lows in the lower 48 states could soar to 20-to-1 by mid-century, and 50-to-1 by 2100.

Andrew Freedman is the Senior Science Writer for Climate Central. This piece was originally published at Climate Central and was reprinted with permission.
This is the more important one tho

Quote:
Since 2000, in the average month, record highs (high maximum temperature) beat out record lows (low minimum temperature) by a two to one margin. This is exactly what has been found in previous peer reviewed studies — including this study, published in Geophysical Research Letters in 2009, by Climate Central’s Claudia Tebaldi and three other researchers.

But looking at these four types of records, it appears that nights have warmed even more: the average month recorded 10 percent more record high minimum temperatures than record high maximums.

The record low temperatures tell an even more compelling story: it was much more likely for the daytime temperature to be colder than average than it was for the nighttime ones.

There were only 1,235 record low minimum temperatures set per month, while there were 1,697 record low maximum temperatures set per month. By this measure, a record cold day was 40 percent more likely than a record cold night.
http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/...-a-closer-look

Warmer nights are exactly what is to be expected from IR trapping by C02

Last edited by macdoc; 8th January 2013 at 02:35 PM.
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Old 8th January 2013, 02:31 PM   #44
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Well, we can all start gardens and take advantage of the warmth and the CO2.

When the US runs out of money, we will have something to occupy our time.
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Old 8th January 2013, 02:37 PM   #45
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Kiss your wheat farming good by tho - 30 years and the zone moves out of the US except for Alaska. BTW enhanced C02 does not mean enhanced yields.

Seems the US is finding enough money to pay the middle east and Canada for oil. Just saying.
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Old 8th January 2013, 05:30 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/servic...ntp/201211.gif
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Old 8th January 2013, 05:56 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I'm just saying that to me, it seems your post offers no way to distinguish high temperatures at the peak of a cycle, from high temperatures at the onset of an ongoing warming trend.

I don't think we're at the peak of a centennial (or millenial, or any other) cycle, but based on your contribution, how would we know?

Also, I'm asking, given a hypothetical centennia warming-cooling cycle, why would we expect to see record lows in the same years as we saw record highs? Wouldn't we expect to see record highs and record lows at opposite ends of the cycle?

And really, the same is true for the asserted warming trend: why would we expect to see record lows in the same years as record highs?

You've read the study: Can you tell us why they were looking for record lows in the same years as record highs, and what conclusions we can reasonably draw from the fact that the found none?

Because based on their findings, I think I can reasonably conclude that their study just as easily supports a warming-cooling cycle, as it does a nonstop warming trend.
ok so you're admitting you have no evidence to support your centennial warming-cooling cycle speculation, and offer no theoretical reason why it should exist. There is however a very good theoretical reason why there should be a warming trend explained here;
http://www.windows2universe.org/eart...ect_gases.html.

As for your question "why would we expect to see record lows in the same years as we saw record highs?" the simple answer is weather. Some days in May could be colder than some days in April (in the northern hemisphere) but that doesn't mean that summer's not on the way.
Every year a weather station somewhere is going to record it's hottest March day or coldest September day since records began and individually they just represent the noise in the system, just extreme once in a century events, even the current Australian heat wave could be viewed in this light on it's own.
But when there are a lot more hot events than cold events over several years this can be seen as supporting evidence for the AGW theory accepted by the majority of climate scientists and endorsed by every major scientific institution, though of course it could be seen as supporting a warming-cooling cycle theory that you just made up and don't even believe yourself.
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Old 8th January 2013, 06:11 PM   #48
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And for the "but sometimes its cold" crowd:

http://theconversation.edu.au/as-cli...e-to-one-11491

Quote:
A long dry spell in inland Australia, fewer cold fronts and the delayed onset of the monsoon in the country’s north had helped create today’s conditions but “the other thing at play here is climate change,” said Dr David Jones, Head of Climate Monitoring and Prediction Services at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

“We know that inland Australia is a degree and a half hotter than it was 50 to 100 years ago. Every single day we have this background warming trend which effectively means the whole climate system operates on a higher base,” he said.

“If you look at maximum temperatures, we are now finding that the rate at which we get record high temperatures is three times faster than the rate at which we get record low temperature.”

In other words, he said, “for every record cold day we see, we get three record hot days.”

“The climate system is really strongly weighted over Australia now towards record heat… that’s quite a profound shift.”

Dr Jones said Australia “was now seeing record hot nights five times more frequently than record cold nights.”
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Old 8th January 2013, 06:29 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by macdoc View Post
Kiss your wheat farming good by tho - 30 years and the zone moves out of the US except for Alaska. BTW enhanced C02 does not mean enhanced yields.

Seems the US is finding enough money to pay the middle east and Canada for oil. Just saying.
Yeah, there's no way I was joking...

Our oil imports are actually at historic lows. Demand is down. We may soon be a top producer.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/00f2b...#axzz2HRAY8Wt1

Somebody apparently gave us a credit card with a $16+T limit, and we don't seem to be able to make the payments. And they apparently keep increasing our limit.

A credit card is not money...well, not your own money...
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Old 8th January 2013, 06:34 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by bit_pattern View Post
And for the "but sometimes its cold" crowd:

http://theconversation.edu.au/as-cli...e-to-one-11491
Which is pretty much what macdoc said in #43.

Of course what deniers will now do is cherry pick this record heat wave in Australia and will compare it with next year's slightly lower average temperature and say "ha, it's cooling...", ignoring the unmistakeable trend.
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Old 8th January 2013, 06:36 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
Yeah, there's no way I was joking...

Our oil imports are actually at historic lows. Demand is down. We may soon be a top producer.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/00f2b...#axzz2HRAY8Wt1

Somebody apparently gave us a credit card with a $16+T limit, and we don't seem to be able to make the payments. And they apparently keep increasing our limit.

A credit card is not money...well, not your own money...
What has this to do with the topic?
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Old 8th January 2013, 06:42 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
What has this to do with the topic?
Why ask me?
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Old 8th January 2013, 06:45 PM   #53
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And I'm sure it's just a coincidence, but:

2012 was warmest year in U.S. on record

Quote:
(CBS News) They've never seen anything like it: Government scientists said Tuesday they're surprised by a jump in temperature that made 2012 the warmest year on record in the lower 48 states. Changes in temperature usually come in tiny fractions of a degree. But the average for 2012 -- 55.3 degrees -- beat the 1998 record, by one full degree.

2012 was also a near-record for weather disasters including drought, wildfires and storms. There were 11 disasters last year that topped $1 billion in damage each. Only 1998 was worse.
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Old 8th January 2013, 06:46 PM   #54
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Wow ... let's just consider this again.

6 of Australia's hottest 20 days on record have occurred .... this year, not 2012. This year. And we're only 8 days in.

The first 6 days of 2013 all hit the top 20, and while there's a cool change through at the moment, the weekend and early next week is expected to be even hotter.
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Old 8th January 2013, 06:51 PM   #55
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Originally Posted by icerat View Post
Wow ... let's just consider this again.

6 of Australia's hottest 20 days on record have occurred .... this year, not 2012. This year. And we're only 8 days in.

The first 6 days of 2013 all hit the top 20, and while there's a cool change through at the moment, the weekend and early next week is expected to be even hotter.
If there's a catastrophic fire alert this summer, we are getting out (we live in a high bushfire risk area). For the first time, we actually have a plan, and have all the passports, photos, birth certificates and so on in one place, ready to pack up and go.
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Old 8th January 2013, 06:56 PM   #56
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For those who don't know Australia, Hobart is by far the coldest state capital. It's the last stop before the Antarctic. It was 42C (108F) last Friday. A record, naturally.
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Old 8th January 2013, 07:00 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
If there's a catastrophic fire alert this summer, we are getting out (we live in a high bushfire risk area). For the first time, we actually have a plan, and have all the passports, photos, birth certificates and so on in one place, ready to pack up and go.
I don't think there's much question of "if", unfortunately.

I love Australia, but I'm glad for my children's sake that they have an alternative.

Stay safe.
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Old 8th January 2013, 07:02 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
For those who don't know Australia, Hobart is by far the coldest state capital. It's the last stop before the Antarctic. It was 42C (108F) last Friday. A record, naturally.
You post that, and then I read that it hit 40.8 in January of 1976 and it just doesn't seem like a big deal to me for it to hit 42.

The bush fires do, though. I hope they do not become as bad as they have been before.
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Old 8th January 2013, 07:10 PM   #59
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
You post that, and then I read that it hit 40.8 in January of 1976 and it just doesn't seem like a big deal to me for it to hit 42.
That's a nearly 3% jump in the record in one hit. That's not exactly normal is it?
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Old 8th January 2013, 07:25 PM   #60
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Originally Posted by icerat View Post
That's a nearly 3% jump in the record in one hit. That's not exactly normal is it?
Yes, it sounds very much normal to me.

The fact that the avg temp rises and falls seems perfectly normal to me.

It mystifies me that anyone is concerned that it's currently rising.

Now, back when they were concerned that it was cooling, I was a child and that scared me.
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Old 8th January 2013, 07:28 PM   #61
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
If there's a catastrophic fire alert this summer, we are getting out (we live in a high bushfire risk area). For the first time, we actually have a plan, and have all the passports, photos, birth certificates and so on in one place, ready to pack up and go.
Good move

Stay safe, mate, it's going to be a long one, could be looking at two weeks of these conditions

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/char...t=Refresh+View
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Old 8th January 2013, 07:29 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
Yes, it sounds very much normal to me.

The fact that the avg temp rises and falls seems perfectly normal to me.

It mystifies me that anyone is concerned that it's currently rising.

Now, back when they were concerned that it was cooling, I was a child and that scared me.
You haven't really read much about global warming have you? It's been 27 years since the earth experienced a month colder than average. It mystifies me that anyone is not concerned.

ETA link added

http://grist.org/news/if-youre-27-or...average-month/
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Old 8th January 2013, 07:31 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
Yes, it sounds very much normal to me.

The fact that the avg temp rises and falls seems perfectly normal to me.

It mystifies me that anyone is concerned that it's currently rising.
Normal... to you. The "to you" bit is the problem here because clearly you don't have the qualifications nor the understanding of temperature averages to make such a judgement. And when it comes to the assurances of what seems normal to some guy on the internet who mindlessly repeats science denial talking points and the warnings of the BOM - I pick the BOM every time.

Quote:
Now, back when they were concerned that it was cooling, I was a child and that scared me.
"They" lol - and who are "they", pray do tell?
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Old 8th January 2013, 07:32 PM   #64
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Quote:
Yes, it sounds very much normal to me.

The fact that the avg temp rises and falls seems perfectly normal to me.

It mystifies me that anyone is concerned that it's currently rising.

Now, back when they were concerned that it was cooling, I was a child and that scared me.
Snort.
You actually think changes to the geo-systems occur without a physical process ?

Regionally AGW can contribute to extreme cold as well as it is doing right now.
http://www.livescience.com/26095-chi...r-weather.html

The science behind the global cooling in the 70s is actually straight forward. It's call S02 emissions....recall the effort to get rid of acid rain ? S02 reduction reduced the offsetting cooling and the temperatures then rose as more C02 was pumped in by the industrial world.

The science is easy for those without their heads buried.
What to do about it and its consequences is is far from easy.

Now you can't claim ignorance anymore of this aspect of planet you live on

••

such an ironic signature line...

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Old 8th January 2013, 07:32 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
You haven't really read much about global warming have you? It's been 27 years since the earth experienced a month colder than average. It mystifies me that anyone is not concerned.
A whole 27 years? Are you joking?

An eye blink...
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Old 8th January 2013, 07:37 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
Now, back when they were concerned that it was cooling, I was a child and that scared me.
People like you scare me.
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Old 8th January 2013, 07:39 PM   #67
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Purposeful avoidance of reality ...for whatever agenda he's decided to hang his "fools belief" on.
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Old 8th January 2013, 07:40 PM   #68
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Originally Posted by bit_pattern View Post
Normal... to you. The "to you" bit is the problem here because clearly you don't have the qualifications nor the understanding of temperature averages to make such a judgement. And when it comes to the assurances of what seems normal to some guy on the internet who mindlessly repeats science denial talking points and the warnings of the BOM - I pick the BOM every time.



"They" lol - and who are "they", pray do tell?
I haven't repeated any talking points at all. What are you talking about? You are just upset that I'm unconcerned about global warming.
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Old 8th January 2013, 07:41 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by icerat View Post
People like you scare me.
There's nothing I can do about AGW, or your fear.
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Old 8th January 2013, 07:44 PM   #70
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
I haven't repeated any talking points at all. What are you talking about? You are just upset that I'm unconcerned about global warming.
Sure you do but maybe your so bereft of self awareness that you don't realise you're doing it:

Quote:
Now, back when they were concerned that it was cooling, I was a child and that scared me.
I'll ask you again - who are "they"?
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Old 8th January 2013, 07:44 PM   #71
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
A whole 27 years? Are you joking?

An eye blink...
Oh, I see. Trolling then. I get it.

Because you clearly can't be serious........
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Old 8th January 2013, 07:47 PM   #72
LTC8K6
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Originally Posted by bit_pattern View Post
Sure you do but maybe your so bereft of self awareness that you don't realise you're doing it:



I'll ask you again - who are "they"?
Whoever started the "new ice age" fears when I was a boy.
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Old 8th January 2013, 07:48 PM   #73
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BTW LTC8K6, how's the drought going in the US? It looks like cutting your GDP by up to1%.

But nothing to be concerned about.....
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Old 8th January 2013, 07:50 PM   #74
LTC8K6
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
BTW LTC8K6, how's the drought going in the US? It looks like cutting your GDP by up to1%.

But nothing to be concerned about.....
What GDP?

I think other concerns will take precedence, barring a return of the "dust bowl".
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Old 8th January 2013, 07:56 PM   #75
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
There's nothing I can do about AGW, or your fear.
you cannot lower your carbon footprint anymore at all?
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Old 8th January 2013, 07:58 PM   #76
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
Whoever started the "new ice age" fears when I was a boy.
the media?
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Old 8th January 2013, 07:58 PM   #77
LTC8K6
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Originally Posted by DC View Post
you cannot lower your carbon footprint anymore at all?
I see what you did there.

If I'm unconcerned about climate variation, why would I care about my carbon footprint?
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Old 8th January 2013, 08:02 PM   #78
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
I see what you did there.

If I'm unconcerned about climate variation, why would I care about my carbon footprint?
so its more that you do not want to do anything about AGW and not that you cannot.
do you believe the science behind climate pattern changes is flawed or is it just that you do not care because major impacts will be after you died anyway? got no kids?
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Old 8th January 2013, 08:14 PM   #79
LTC8K6
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Originally Posted by DC View Post
so its more that you do not want to do anything about AGW and not that you cannot.
do you believe the science behind climate pattern changes is flawed or is it just that you do not care because major impacts will be after you died anyway? got no kids?
No, I don't have any kids. I have nieces and nephews.

I just don't think there's anything unusual about climate change.

The warms are getting warmer for the time being.

Meh.
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Old 8th January 2013, 08:20 PM   #80
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
No, I don't have any kids. I have nieces and nephews.

I just don't think there's anything unusual about climate change.

The warms are getting warmer for the time being.

Meh.
i see, based on nothing, just so. good old gut feeling. sure the best approach when confronted with a complex problematic. clever.
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