Probability of world changing event on December 21st? - Page 2

rjh01 · 21st December 2012, 12:28 AM

We have just had a hot day today. But then it is summer. I wonder if that is good enough?

Farsight · 21st December 2012, 12:53 AM

I was channel-hopping through the documentaries on Sky last night, and I was gobsmacked at just how many end-of-the-world programs were being aired. Talk about media hysteria, sheesh.

Hellbound · 21st December 2012, 06:06 AM

Originally Posted by rjh01

We have just had a hot day today. But then it is summer. I wonder if that is good enough?

Oh my FSM!

HALF the PLANET had hot days yesterday, and it's the middle of freakin' winter!

The apocolypse is nigh!

bruto · 21st December 2012, 10:04 AM

We had a mighty wind, but it was not as mighty as all that.

Denver · 21st December 2012, 10:15 AM

Originally Posted by Denver

The Exposing Pseudoastronomy podcast just did an episode on 2012 and the sun, and shows why the likelihood of a catastrophic CME any time soon is extremely low.

Originally Posted by andyandy

By anytime soon is that in the next few years or in the next few decades?
Out of the listed potential disasters that one seems the most likely - and also with potentially massive ramifications.....which makes me wonder why we don't seem to be doing anything as an insurance against it. Our inability to plan and account for low probability high impact events seems to be a bit of a weakness

I meant on or near Dec 21 2012, as per the thread title.

rjh01 · 21st December 2012, 12:52 PM

It is nearly 8 am on 22/12/12 here. Now how do I tell if the world has ended? Maybe all I see is an illusion.

Anders Lindman · 21st December 2012, 01:37 PM

Originally Posted by rjh01

It is nearly 8 am on 22/12/12 here. Now how do I tell if the world has ended? Maybe all I see is an illusion.

Barack Obama has started to grab American citizens' guns, and the NRO boss wants to put pedophile TSA guards in every school to grope children all day long. That's so outrageous that it has to be reality!

Anders Lindman · 22nd December 2012, 02:47 AM

Originally Posted by Anders Lindman

6) Staged space alien invasion a la Project Bluebeam. Probability estimate: 0%

7) Mayan end date hysteria anticlimax. Probability estimate 100%

Ahem, I rest my briefcase.

epix · 22nd December 2012, 05:11 PM

Originally Posted by andyandy

Ok, so I'm not about to start digging a bunker in my back garden, but with all the Mayan hocus pocus in the news it got me wondering just what the probability of a world changing event happening on any given day - and how it could be calculated.

I'll define world changing:

1) Large Coronal Mass Ejection

2) Large volcanic eruption a) of the Krakatoa type b) of the supervolcano type

3) Asteroid/comet impact of sizable proportions

4) nuclear war with a number of bombs dropped

5) large scale contagious infection with high mortality (this would be slower than a single day event - but still I'll include it

)

6) please add your own!

(Of course we also have things like climate change - which will likely have a profound impact but over a larger time span...)

How could one reasonably arrive at an estimate for a likelihood of such things happening - either in a day, a year or in the next 100 years?

You can employ conceptual solution in the form of Drake's equation. Some parameters, such as the probability of asteroid/comet impact taking place on a given day, would be easier to arrive at, as opposed to the case where a nuclear war breaks out.

21st December 2012, 12:28 AM	#41
rjh01 Gentleman of leisure Tagger Join Date: May 2005 Location: Planet Earth Posts: 17,171	We have just had a hot day today. But then it is summer. I wonder if that is good enough?
	__________________ dddffffpppqqqq Want to use your computer for something that will make society better? See this thread for details Folding@home

21st December 2012, 10:04 AM	#44
bruto Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: way way north of Diddy Wah Diddy Posts: 11,180	We had a mighty wind, but it was not as mighty as all that.
	__________________ "Sir, I have found you an argument; but I am not obliged to find you an understanding.(Samuel Johnson) The gods are less for their love of praise....(Wendell Berry)

21st December 2012, 10:15 AM	#45
Denver Philosopher Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Denver, Colorado Posts: 6,597	Originally Posted by Denver The Exposing Pseudoastronomy podcast just did an episode on 2012 and the sun, and shows why the likelihood of a catastrophic CME any time soon is extremely low. Originally Posted by andyandy By anytime soon is that in the next few years or in the next few decades? Out of the listed potential disasters that one seems the most likely - and also with potentially massive ramifications.....which makes me wonder why we don't seem to be doing anything as an insurance against it. Our inability to plan and account for low probability high impact events seems to be a bit of a weakness I meant on or near Dec 21 2012, as per the thread title.
	__________________ Dreams inevitably lead to hideous implosions -- Invader Zim

21st December 2012, 12:52 PM	#46
rjh01 Gentleman of leisure Tagger Join Date: May 2005 Location: Planet Earth Posts: 17,171	It is nearly 8 am on 22/12/12 here. Now how do I tell if the world has ended? Maybe all I see is an illusion.
	__________________ dddffffpppqqqq Want to use your computer for something that will make society better? See this thread for details Folding@home

21st December 2012, 12:53 AM	#42
Farsight Graduate Poster Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Poole, UK Posts: 1,934	I was channel-hopping through the documentaries on Sky last night, and I was gobsmacked at just how many end-of-the-world programs were being aired. Talk about media hysteria, sheesh.

21st December 2012, 06:06 AM	#43
Hellbound Abiogenic Spongiform Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: In a handbasket Posts: 8,911	Originally Posted by rjh01 We have just had a hot day today. But then it is summer. I wonder if that is good enough? Oh my FSM! HALF the PLANET had hot days yesterday, and it's the middle of freakin' winter! The apocolypse is nigh!

21st December 2012, 01:37 PM	#47
Anders Lindman Philosopher Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 9,289	Originally Posted by rjh01 It is nearly 8 am on 22/12/12 here. Now how do I tell if the world has ended? Maybe all I see is an illusion. Barack Obama has started to grab American citizens' guns, and the NRO boss wants to put pedophile TSA guards in every school to grope children all day long. That's so outrageous that it has to be reality!

22nd December 2012, 02:47 AM	#48
Anders Lindman Philosopher Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 9,289	Originally Posted by Anders Lindman 6) Staged space alien invasion a la Project Bluebeam. Probability estimate: 0% 7) Mayan end date hysteria anticlimax. Probability estimate 100% Ahem, I rest my briefcase.

22nd December 2012, 05:11 PM	#49
epix Suspended Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Borgia Apartment, Vatican City Posts: 2,957	Originally Posted by andyandy Ok, so I'm not about to start digging a bunker in my back garden, but with all the Mayan hocus pocus in the news it got me wondering just what the probability of a world changing event happening on any given day - and how it could be calculated. I'll define world changing: 1) Large Coronal Mass Ejection 2) Large volcanic eruption a) of the Krakatoa type b) of the supervolcano type 3) Asteroid/comet impact of sizable proportions 4) nuclear war with a number of bombs dropped 5) large scale contagious infection with high mortality (this would be slower than a single day event - but still I'll include it ) 6) please add your own! (Of course we also have things like climate change - which will likely have a profound impact but over a larger time span...) How could one reasonably arrive at an estimate for a likelihood of such things happening - either in a day, a year or in the next 100 years? You can employ conceptual solution in the form of Drake's equation. Some parameters, such as the probability of asteroid/comet impact taking place on a given day, would be easier to arrive at, as opposed to the case where a nuclear war breaks out.