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Tags | probability |
View Poll Results: A thing that is very likely is exactly as possible as a thing that is very unlikey. |
I agree. | 56 | 55.45% | |
I disagree. | 21 | 20.79% | |
Picard, blow up the damn ship! | 16 | 15.84% | |
That's is. The Star Trek quote was the Planet X option. | 8 | 7.92% | |
Voters: 101. You may not vote on this poll |
20th March 2011, 03:33 PM | #1 |
I would save the receptionist.
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What's The Chance You'll Answer This Poll
In this very strange thread, forum member Epix issued me this challenge:
So, I throw it out to you. Do you agree that something that is very likely is exactly as possible as something that is very unlikely? |
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20th March 2011, 03:40 PM | #2 |
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Possibility is a binary thing. It either is possible or not.
Probability, or likelyhood on the other hand ... |
20th March 2011, 03:40 PM | #3 |
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In the sense that they're both possible, yes.
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Last edited by Twiler; 20th March 2011 at 03:41 PM. Reason: Combined two possible coherent sentences into one incoherent one. |
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20th March 2011, 03:48 PM | #4 |
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20th March 2011, 03:53 PM | #5 |
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That's six single people you've found who agree with you so far. You're not at all surprised, are you?
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20th March 2011, 04:04 PM | #6 |
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Possibility has nothing to do with likelihood or probability.
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20th March 2011, 04:07 PM | #7 |
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Something is either impossible or possible, it doesn't matter how probable. And the kicker is, there are really only degrees of improbability.
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20th March 2011, 04:08 PM | #8 |
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Tangentially, can anything actually be impossible?
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20th March 2011, 04:14 PM | #9 |
I would save the receptionist.
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20th March 2011, 04:20 PM | #10 |
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20th March 2011, 05:25 PM | #11 |
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It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898) God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150 |
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20th March 2011, 08:10 PM | #12 |
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20th March 2011, 08:27 PM | #13 |
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20th March 2011, 08:56 PM | #14 |
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Honestly, LL, I think it was poorly worded on your part, though in context I understood your meaning.
I guess you're taking the position that "possible" is simply a binary attribute (something is either possible or it's not), but (1) that's not the only way that word is used; and (2) you sort of undermine your position by using the qualifier "exactly" to modify "possible." So while I think epix is making a mountain out of a molehill -- you certainly aren't committing the error he claims you are -- I can't agree with your statement. |
20th March 2011, 10:23 PM | #15 |
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20th March 2011, 10:42 PM | #16 |
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Of course it is possible that something is impossible.
Maybe you tried to say that the idea is possible that impossible is possible. Like the orbit of circle being equal length with the four sides of a square around it. Ahh why am I participating in this? I repent immediately. |
20th March 2011, 10:51 PM | #17 |
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I'd say that possibility has an unstated second element in addition to it's binary value.
It's impossible for me to leave work early. It's impossible to walk to the moon. A square triangle is impossible. Each of these cases state a binary value for possibility, but they also contain a level of constraint. In this case it's social, physical and logical. I think the way that we use the term "possible" there is an unstated sliding scale. It is fully possible for me to leave work early if we transcend the social scale to the physical scale. It is fully possible to walk to the moon on a logical scale, just vanishingly unlikely. I think it's completely reasonable to say that leaving work early is more possible than walking to the moon which is more possible than a square triangle. This scale tends to have a strong correlation to probability/likelihood, to the extent that the terms can be uses interchangeably in many contexts. |
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20th March 2011, 11:12 PM | #18 |
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21st March 2011, 12:43 AM | #19 |
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21st March 2011, 12:49 AM | #20 |
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Nice post, but I would suggest that there is an implied element of those statements that isn't fully stated. For instance "it's impossible for me to leave work early" means (to the speaker and the listener) something like, "It's impossible for me to leave work early without getting in trouble with my boss".
Mind you, that's still not literally impossible. But we humans do exaggerate some times. |
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21st March 2011, 02:18 AM | #21 |
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Let me consider the motivation behind the question for a moment. It's possible that Epix meant this question as a sincere enquiry as to the nature of probability and possibility. It's equally possible that he/she meant it as a means of scoring a cheap debating point. However, one of these is very likely, and one is very unlikely.
Since the above paragraph makes perfect sense, I think that demonstrates that Epix is wrong. Dave |
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21st March 2011, 05:11 AM | #22 |
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21st March 2011, 05:37 AM | #23 |
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In The Infinite Book, the author made the proposition that in a truly infinite universe (or universes) anything that was possible MUST occur.
So it's a matter of scale to give one the "probability" factor. |
21st March 2011, 05:39 AM | #24 |
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Exactly.
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21st March 2011, 05:52 AM | #25 |
I would save the receptionist.
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Interesting debate. I don't think that my statement was particularly unclear. I was using both possibility and probability in the strictest mathematical sense.
Honestly, I was worried that people would consider "something that is very unlikely" to include the set of things that have no likelihood whatsoever. I meant to include in the set only things that have a likelihood greater than zero. Still, I'm a little worried that so far 9 people believe the most reasonable course of action is for Picard to blow up the damn ship. |
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21st March 2011, 07:12 AM | #26 |
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Penn and Teller addressed this in their unreleased video game Smoke and Mirrors. If you chose to play one of the minigames in "Impossible" mode, you were instantly killed. Lou Reed would then appear and say, "Impossible doesn't mean very difficult. Very difficult is getting a Nobel Prize; impossible is eating the sun."
PS: I also think Picard should blow up the damn ship, even though I didn't vote that way. I just don't want to get blamed for the damn ship blowing up. |
21st March 2011, 08:12 AM | #27 |
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21st March 2011, 08:16 AM | #28 |
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On a forum I used to frequent, a regular reckoned everything was either possible or not possible and therefore all bets were even money
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21st March 2011, 08:36 AM | #29 |
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As to the quesiton in the thread title it was 50%. I decided by coin toss and so I answered.
The answer I gave was that I agree in the sense that I understand the intended meaning and concur. I did double check the dictionary definition of the word "possible."
Quote:
There are however other usages of the word possible mentioned. Where possibility is used instead of practical. It therefore becomes a qualified term rather than an absolute. So something can be considered as more possible than something else rather than either it is possible or not. It would be particularly uncharitable to ignore a meaning that made sense and assume that the quote was intended to mean something which doesn't make sense. Yet it's still worth mentioning that these other usages exist. If your correspondent had been employing another usage then you would not be correct in imposing your own definition onto them. Briefly checking context was tiresome but I note that in context you were introducing the term under your own definition rather than denying the possibility of another usage. As such I agree. That said some have voted against you so I guess that by you own terms you will be acting as if you were wrong. |
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21st March 2011, 08:36 AM | #30 |
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I routinely speak of impossible things as unlikely. Example:
It is very unlikely that a total recursive algorithm for deciding validity in first order logic will be discovered within my lifetime.I am especially likely to say things like that when I hear people saying that nothing is impossible, as has been said within this thread. |
21st March 2011, 08:45 AM | #31 |
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Hmmm. that's a good point. I had interpreted very unlikely as meaning a non-zero probability. However it may equally be used to describe a probability which not exactly known but bounded by a low number and zero.
As such something that is impossible but not known to be impossible could still be known to be very unlikely and described as such. The set of things that are reasonably described as very unlikley therefore includes things that are impossible. Would it be fair to say that the set of things that are reasonably described as very likely does not included things that are impossible? |
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21st March 2011, 09:21 AM | #32 |
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I don't think so, because what is reasonable depends on the state of our knowledge, which is often imperfect.
When Hilbert stated his tenth problem, it would have been reasonable to describe the existence of the requested algorithm as very likely. Had that not been so, Hilbert's tenth problem would have asked whether any such algorithm exists instead of asking for a specific algorithm. As we now know, however, the problem is impossible: there is no such algorithm. |
21st March 2011, 09:27 AM | #33 |
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Hmm......it comes down to language and usage but I think when you say something is as possible as something else then you are implying a probability so I'd disagree with your statement.
Example: My boss is currently not at his desk. It is possible he is in a meeting, that he has nipped to the toilet, that he has been taken by the CIA for questioning in connection with a terrorist attack on South Wales and that he has been abducted by aliens. It would be a bit of a tortured usage of the English language for me to insist that these are all equally possible. |
21st March 2011, 09:31 AM | #34 |
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21st March 2011, 09:50 AM | #35 |
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I disagree: if something is very unlikely it might still be impossible.
What if I say that it is very unlikely that you are currently pregnant based upon not knowing your gender and knowing that even if your were capable of being pregnant people tend to spend less time being pregnant than not. If it turns out that with the addition of knowledge I don't currently have I can revise my statement to say that it is impossible that you are currently pregnant does that mean that I was previously wrong to say "very unlikely". If so what should I have said instead? |
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21st March 2011, 03:49 PM | #36 |
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Something impossible has zero likelihood.
Something possible can lie anywhere on the likeliness spectrum. Those things we know to be possible however are , for the most part, things which exist - and are therefore 100% likely. What's interesting is what percentage of all possible things are things we know to exist? Possibly a very small fraction. |
21st March 2011, 06:10 PM | #37 |
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What's the ratio of primes/non-primes?
Why does god force me to read threads like this? |
21st March 2011, 07:58 PM | #38 |
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22nd March 2011, 08:09 AM | #39 |
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The problem with your statement is that it's still true if you replace "unlikely" with "likely" because you are talking about the fact that your assessment of the situation might be flawed. Taking that into account, the original thing being discussed is still correct:
"something that is very likely is exactly as possible as something that is very unlikely." |
22nd March 2011, 04:44 PM | #40 |
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It's a poor sort of memory that only works backward - Lewis Carroll (1832-1898) God can make a cow out of a tree, but has He ever done so? Therefore show some reason why a thing is so, or cease to hold that it is so - William of Conches, c1150 |
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