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Tags probability , telekinesis , testing protocols

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Old 18th November 2011, 08:48 AM   #1
GrandMasterFox
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Testing Telekinesis

A friend and I recently tossed back and forth on a hyptotheical issue.

Let's say you are an organization like the JREF and you test people who claim to have psychic abilities. What protocol would you advise for a test of telekinesis?

Here's the issues:

1)The test has to be fair both ways. Neither the applicant nor the testing organization should be able to cheat the other.
If you test telepathy, the applicant is usually required to bring his own volunteer, so that he won't have an out claiming that the JREF cheated him by getting their volunteer to simply lie.

But how does that work with telekinesis? Either party who doesn't supply the given object can claim the other side tampered with it somehow.

2)How does one evaluate statistical probability on the test?
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Old 18th November 2011, 08:55 AM   #2
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You think JREF can provide object which is tempered with so it cannot be move with telekinesis ?
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Old 18th November 2011, 08:59 AM   #3
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Will all the people in the room claiming to have telekinetic powers please raise my hand.
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Old 18th November 2011, 09:02 AM   #4
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GrandMasterFox, this is why everyone involved has to agree to the protocols ahead of time.
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Old 18th November 2011, 09:06 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by GrandMasterFox View Post
A friend and I recently tossed back and forth on a hyptotheical issue.

Let's say you are an organization like the JREF and you test people who claim to have psychic abilities. What protocol would you advise for a test of telekinesis?

Here's the issues:

1)The test has to be fair both ways. Neither the applicant nor the testing organization should be able to cheat the other.
If you test telepathy, the applicant is usually required to bring his own volunteer, so that he won't have an out claiming that the JREF cheated him by getting their volunteer to simply lie.

But how does that work with telekinesis? Either party who doesn't supply the given object can claim the other side tampered with it somehow.

2)How does one evaluate statistical probability on the test?
We order an object from Amazon to be delivered to the testing site.

We open the package and set it up on site.

I move it using my powers.

I go home with $1 million.

I always thought telekinesis would be the easiest claim to test.
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Old 18th November 2011, 09:07 AM   #6
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The actual test is proposed by the claimant. So the basic setup would be up to them. It is reviewed by JREF, and any changes are agreed on by both parties.
That said, a simple test could be as follows: The object to be moved is placed in a sealed glass container (an old-fashioned anniversary clock dome would be nice), the container on a sturdy table, the table on a stable floor. The claimant sits or stands near the table, but not touching it. Cameras run watching the object, the claimant and the rest of the room. The claimant attempts to move the object.
Obvious items to check: The object should be non-ferous, have no internal mechanisms, and is examined and approved by both parties. The claimant can have no devices to influence the object.
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Old 18th November 2011, 09:27 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by GrandMasterFox View Post
...2)How does one evaluate statistical probability on the test?
This one is pretty much binary - no statistics required.

The test object moves or it doesn't.
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Old 18th November 2011, 09:44 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by GrandMasterFox View Post
A friend and I recently tossed back and forth on a hyptotheical issue.

Let's say you are an organization like the JREF and you test people who claim to have psychic abilities. What protocol would you advise for a test of telekinesis?

Here's the issues:

1)The test has to be fair both ways. Neither the applicant nor the testing organization should be able to cheat the other.
If you test telepathy, the applicant is usually required to bring his own volunteer, so that he won't have an out claiming that the JREF cheated him by getting their volunteer to simply lie.

But how does that work with telekinesis? Either party who doesn't supply the given object can claim the other side tampered with it somehow.

2)How does one evaluate statistical probability on the test?
Well, if one has telekinetic powers, then why bother with JREF at all?

Because if I had such powers, then I would just visit various Roulette tables around the world and scoop up and extra few grand here and there, then move on to some other place before they got wise.

It would be easy to do and I could get in a great deal of good travelling to boot.
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Old 18th November 2011, 11:43 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by Pope130 View Post
The actual test is proposed by the claimant. So the basic setup would be up to them. It is reviewed by JREF, and any changes are agreed on by both parties.
That said, a simple test could be as follows: The object to be moved is placed in a sealed glass container (an old-fashioned anniversary clock dome would be nice), the container on a sturdy table, the table on a stable floor. The claimant sits or stands near the table, but not touching it. Cameras run watching the object, the claimant and the rest of the room. The claimant attempts to move the object.
Obvious items to check: The object should be non-ferous, have no internal mechanisms, and is examined and approved by both parties. The claimant can have no devices to influence the object.
...except that the "object" in question would almost certainly be what the proponents of telekinesis call a 'PK Wheel'. Which they can already demonstrate the ability to move while inside a sealed glass container.
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Old 18th November 2011, 01:12 PM   #10
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Just to make sure nobody even thinks otherwise, no I do not think telekinesis is a real thing. It's just a random "what if" (hence why it is in this forum and not the actual MDC)

The question I was pondering it is possible to establish an item to be moved without either party capable of claiming was tampered with. I suppose AvalonXQ suggestion of having a 3rd party deliver it is quite reasonable.

Though I would love to hear the following conversion:
Claiment: We waited four hours and you didn't show up!
Amazon Customer Support: Oh, we're sorry. We had a schedueling issue. We hope there was no inconvinient
Claiment: You just cost me $1,000,000!!!!

As for the issue of statistics, isn't the whole point that the MDC goes by greater than chance probability? If I remember correctly, that's 1 in 1000 for the preliminary test. Is it fair to claim a test with no probability?
Or does one have to determine such thing?
Example: Roll a roulette and the claiment has to make sure it sets on a specific spot.
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Old 18th November 2011, 01:26 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by GrandMasterFox View Post
As for the issue of statistics, isn't the whole point that the MDC goes by greater than chance probability?
The point of the MDC is to prove that ANY type of paranormal or supernatural powers or beings exist. Probability only matters in cases where random chance plays a part.

With telekinesis, moving ANYTHING, even just once, by using only the mind would be phenomenal. That type of test would be a simple PASS/FAIL.

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Old 18th November 2011, 01:30 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by GrandMasterFox View Post
Just to make sure nobody even thinks otherwise, no I do not think telekinesis is a real thing. It's just a random "what if" (hence why it is in this forum and not the actual MDC)

The question I was pondering it is possible to establish an item to be moved without either party capable of claiming was tampered with. I suppose AvalonXQ suggestion of having a 3rd party deliver it is quite reasonable.

Though I would love to hear the following conversion:
Claiment: We waited four hours and you didn't show up!
Amazon Customer Support: Oh, we're sorry. We had a schedueling issue. We hope there was no inconvinient
Claiment: You just cost me $1,000,000!!!!

As for the issue of statistics, isn't the whole point that the MDC goes by greater than chance probability? If I remember correctly, that's 1 in 1000 for the preliminary test. Is it fair to claim a test with no probability?
Or does one have to determine such thing?
Example: Roll a roulette and the claiment has to make sure it sets on a specific spot.
The odds are only important when the test involves something that could happen randomly.
That's why it's up to the claimant to make their claim. If they say they can move something then the test should be that they move something.

Agreeing to the protocol should be easy. The object itself should be pretty easy to agree upon since there's no such thing as telekinesis it just has to be something that's not moved by light and the heavier the better.

If the object is something that can't be move by a regular house fan, then you don't have to put a glass dome or other barrier between the claimant and the object. Of course, they would not be allowed to touch it.

If it can be moved by a house fan, then something should be between the claimant and the object and a house fan could be used to test whether the object is susceptible to wind currents.
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Old 18th November 2011, 02:57 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by GrandMasterFox View Post
A friend and I recently tossed back and forth on a hyptotheical issue.

Let's say you are an organization like the JREF and you test people who claim to have psychic abilities. What protocol would you advise for a test of telekinesis?

[...]

2)How does one evaluate statistical probability on the test?

Easy. Telekinesis has a prior probability of zero. Therefore, by Bayes Theorem, it has a posterior probability of zero, regardless of the test's apparent results.

Jay
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Old 18th November 2011, 04:19 PM   #14
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I agree with all the comments and insights, but to be very pedantic about it all: the starting place on such speculations must always be an actual stated claim.
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Old 18th November 2011, 04:28 PM   #15
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Laboratory balance in an airtight Faraday cage in a damped 'balance room',
If someone can influence its measurement then I'll be willing to concede telekinesis,
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Old 19th November 2011, 07:15 PM   #16
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Just out of interest, has anyone actually claimed to be able to do it and had a preliminary test so far?
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Old 19th November 2011, 08:47 PM   #17
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Have a trusted 3rd party create a clear, completely airtight acrylic (or glass) hollow cube with a non-magnetical piece of material inside it. Place on table. Move the non-magnetical piece of material without touching table or cube.
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Old 20th November 2011, 01:46 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by maggot9779 View Post
Just out of interest, has anyone actually claimed to be able to do it and had a preliminary test so far?
Seems like I remember a video of a news show or something with someone who supposedly was turning the pages of a telephone book with the "power of his mind" ... Randi was there, and suggested he was doing it by blowing and put some controls in after the guy's initial demonstration... not sure if it was a MDC or not though.

(edit) Found it... it was actually on "That's My Line" and is actually quite old. I think it might have been from before the MDC, though I didn't re-watch the entire thing to see if the MDC was mentioned.

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Old 20th November 2011, 02:02 AM   #19
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Another way to handle selection of the object would be to have it picked from a very large number. For example, supposed the claimant says he can move a paper clip. Then the protocol could be to go to a paper clip manufacturer where there are millions of paper clips and then let a third party pick one.

ETA: I was going to post that video too. Yes, the MDC is mentioned in the first minute or two ... back when it was $10K.

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Old 20th November 2011, 02:40 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by maggot9779 View Post
Just out of interest, has anyone actually claimed to be able to do it and had a preliminary test so far?
I don't think the challenge subforum lists all applicants ever, but a quick scan of the thread titles shows three applicants who have claimed telekinetic ability:

http://www.internationalskeptics.com...ad.php?t=97889

http://www.internationalskeptics.com...ad.php?t=41604

http://www.internationalskeptics.com...ad.php?t=30119

None got as far as taking a preliminary test, but all are of some interest with regard to what kind of test protocol JREF would consider appropriate. I like the idea of hanging several items from strings and asking the applicant to move just one of them.
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Old 20th November 2011, 03:52 AM   #21
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One thing I learned from this thread. Using only the power of my mind, I can move on to the next thread.
Goodbye.
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Old 20th November 2011, 06:59 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
Another way to handle selection of the object would be to have it picked from a very large number. For example, supposed the claimant says he can move a paper clip. Then the protocol could be to go to a paper clip manufacturer where there are millions of paper clips and then let a third party pick one.
Or put three paperclips on the same table, but not touching each other, and ask the claimant to move only number 2.
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Old 20th November 2011, 11:57 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by Crossbow View Post
Well, if one has telekinetic powers, then why bother with JREF at all?

Because if I had such powers, then I would just visit various Roulette tables around the world and scoop up and extra few grand here and there, then move on to some other place before they got wise.

It would be easy to do and I could get in a great deal of good travelling to boot.
Why not just reach out mentally and flip a few ones and zeros and etransfer some money into your account?
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Old 21st November 2011, 05:42 PM   #24
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Rather than a simple 'one item', 'one movement' test, I'd prefer to see a kind of pin-ball rig where multiple wooden balls fall down a tilted board, bouncing off wooden pins, into a number of collection slots. This would allow an isolated set up, remote activation (running balls down a tube to the top of the board or similar), multiple runs to calibrate in the absence of telekinesis, and multiple runs in the presence of telekinesis. If the claimant could influence the cumulative trajectory of the balls over multiple runs to fall into different slots at a significantly greater than random chance, they'd have demonstrated their influence.
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Old 21st November 2011, 06:35 PM   #25
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Robert Park covered this nearly a dozen years ago.
[i]f the mind can influence inanimate objects, why not simply measure the static force the mind can exert? Modern ultramicrobalances can routinely measure a force much less than a billionth of an ounce. Why not just use your psychokinetic powers to deflect a microbalance? [...] The reason, of course, is that the microbalance stubbornly refuses to budge.

—Robert L. Park, Voodoo Science, 2000, page 199




Quote-mined from here.

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Old 21st November 2011, 07:01 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by dlorde View Post
Rather than a simple 'one item', 'one movement' test, I'd prefer to see a kind of pin-ball rig where multiple wooden balls fall down a tilted board, bouncing off wooden pins, into a number of collection slots. This would allow an isolated set up, remote activation (running balls down a tube to the top of the board or similar), multiple runs to calibrate in the absence of telekinesis, and multiple runs in the presence of telekinesis. If the claimant could influence the cumulative trajectory of the balls over multiple runs to fall into different slots at a significantly greater than random chance, they'd have demonstrated their influence.
Why do a complicated test that involves statistics rather than a simple yes/no test whose outcome is obvious....like the one in the post above this.
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Old 22nd November 2011, 07:08 AM   #27
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
Why do a complicated test that involves statistics rather than a simple yes/no test whose outcome is obvious....like the one in the post above this.
I don't think it's a complicated test. It allows a baseline control comparison which makes set up and replication relatively easy. It also seems to me reasonably robust against claims of deceitful manipulation (cheating )

I haven't yet heard a protocol for a yes/no test that seems sufficiently robust against claims of deceitful manipulation.

I don't feel particularly strongly about it - I just thought it worth consideration.
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