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31st January 2012, 06:16 AM | #41 |
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This was interesting:
Quote:
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31st January 2012, 08:33 AM | #42 |
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There have been a number of lottery syndicate stories including in the US. Any lottery system that has a progressive pot will eventually reach the point where the estimated payout exceeds the cost of the ticket. A syndicate has a double advantage in that not only can they cover the entire board without duplication, they also get a hugh tax advantage that allows them to deduct the cost of all the tickets. For most individual players, they won't have enough winnings to cover their losses and the winners will only have a small cost of the ticket that can be deducted.
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31st January 2012, 08:38 AM | #43 |
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I once bought 5 10 dollar scratch tickets after winning $100 on a 2 dollar.
One of the biggest myths was that the beginning and ending of the book was a no-go. You've probably seen people ask for the ticket #s for this reason. When they gave me the tickets, I noticed that they were #'s 001-005. I brought them home anyway, resigned to my fate. Got $100, $50, $50, $40, $500 I am not kidding. Needless to say I no longer believe in lottery myths. |
31st January 2012, 08:54 AM | #44 |
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I would imagine your best chance of not having to share the payout if you do win is to pick whatever numbers came up the previous week. They have exactly the same chance of coming up this week as any other combination, but you'll likely to be the only person playing them.
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31st January 2012, 09:12 AM | #45 |
I lost an avatar bet.
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Ah but what if someone else has the same idea. Obviously you should use the numbers not from the previous draw, but the draw before the previous draw. Oh wait, someone else might have that idea - use the numbers from the draw before that one, that's the way to ensure no one requests your combination of numbers.
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31st January 2012, 09:18 AM | #46 |
I lost an avatar bet.
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Do you have any evidence to support this assertion?
I am not talking about the odds, I am talking about your claim that the general population understands the point you were making. Here in the U.S., there is a great deal of mathematical illiteracy. Actually, the fact that these types of lotteries exist at all is prima facie evidence of such innumeracy. |
31st January 2012, 09:21 AM | #47 |
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31st January 2012, 09:28 AM | #48 |
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The chance of winning is exactly the same. The chance of winning anything is significantly lower. Lotteries report that 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 are the most commonly picked numbers. So if you win, you can expect to split the prize with hundreds of people.
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"It probably came from a sticky dark planet far, far away." - Godzilla versus Hedora "There's no evidence that the 9-11 attacks (whoever did them) were deliberately attacking civilians. On the contrary the targets appear to have been chosen as military." -DavidByron |
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31st January 2012, 09:45 AM | #49 |
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This reminds me of our family story:
In the group of 14 people made up of my parents and their five children and my uncle's seven children, three share May 23 as a birthday, two share November 19 (including myself) and two share March 2. Now, I know that it only takes 23 people to get to a 50% probability of a match, but the odds of all these matches occurring in such a small group has to be pretty high* (I think it has been calculated at something like 1 in 750,000.) * And yes, I know that since it's happened, the odds are 1, so we can dispense with that right now. |
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31st January 2012, 09:58 AM | #50 |
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The secret NASA doesn't want you to know - God makes rockets work in space. |
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31st January 2012, 11:18 AM | #51 |
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I can beat that.
One time I was coming home from work with a work-buddy and we stopped into the all-night gas station. I saw that there were 3 pull-tab tickets left from the special Christmas batch. Never bought them before. So I said, give me those and if I win $100 on each we'll split it 3 ways. And I did. So I followed through. Think my work-buddy had more fun sharing that story than I did. |
31st January 2012, 12:40 PM | #52 |
Nasty Woman
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The Birthday Paradox
Quote:
I'm confused. |
31st January 2012, 12:47 PM | #53 |
Nasty Woman
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I can beat that story with my true anecdote. I was hitching across Canada with a friend and we were just out of Banff unable to get a ride because there were so many other people in the same spot. So we went hiking off down the road instead. A few miles later my shoe fell apart. It was totally unusable and there was nothing I could do but hike barefoot which was going to be seriously difficult. But literally right there on the side of the road was a pair of Puma tennis shoes that fit perfectly. They were so comfortable they became my favorite shoes until they wore out.
What are the odds? |
31st January 2012, 12:50 PM | #54 |
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OK, I'm skeptical here. I do believe you but I have a question. Those pull tabs have [x] number of guaranteed wins and they usually cross off the numbers as they are won. With 3 winning tabs left wouldn't anyone have been able to see there were 3 $100s left and only 3 tabs? I must be having a false memory about seeing x'ed out numbers on pull tab cases.
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31st January 2012, 12:54 PM | #55 |
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There's a fun hack based on this. It works in Florida, at least. Wait until the winning numbers are announced and go gt a ticket with the same numbers before midnight. Show it to someone who is really into the lottery, and they go into fits of apoplexy until they note the time (which they never do, but you can tell them and laugh at them).
People just aren't thinking here. |
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31st January 2012, 01:23 PM | #56 |
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I know that any combination is as likely as any other combination so the numbers from the previous draw have the same odds as any other combination but is it a different question to ask what are the odds of the same six numbers showing up in two consecutive draws?
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31st January 2012, 01:36 PM | #57 |
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31st January 2012, 06:18 PM | #58 |
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Assuming you count the two supplementary numbers, that's 8 numbers per draw.
I'm guessing that if nearly 58% of the draws have at least 1 of the 8 numbers from the previous draw, then nearly 58% of the draws would have at least 1 of the 8 numbers from any given set of 8 possible numbers. |
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31st January 2012, 06:24 PM | #59 |
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31st January 2012, 06:47 PM | #60 |
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31st January 2012, 07:52 PM | #61 |
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It's a good idea to buy your lottery ticket as close to the draw as possible.
Although this doesn't increase your chances of winning, if you do win there's less chance of you dying between the time you bought the ticket and the time you realise you've won. Phil |
31st January 2012, 09:11 PM | #62 |
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31st January 2012, 09:47 PM | #63 |
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"That is just what you feel, that isn't reality." - hamelekim |
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31st January 2012, 09:56 PM | #64 |
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Reading this sentence is ineluctable. |
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31st January 2012, 10:00 PM | #65 |
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Reading this sentence is ineluctable. |
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31st January 2012, 10:11 PM | #66 |
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Paranormal/supernatural beliefs are knowledge placebos. Rumours of a god’s existence have been greatly exaggerated. Make beliefs truths and you get make-believe truths. |
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31st January 2012, 10:21 PM | #67 |
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In New Zealand Lotto is 6 numbers from 40 and there is a Powerball draw which is 1 from 10. The odds of winning First Division are 1 in 3,838,380 and the odds of winning First Division plus Powerball are 1 in 38,383,800.
Recently a single ticket won First Division 10 times and Powerball once. What the winner had done was repeat to the same numbers ten times for First Division and cover the Powerball numbers with each line as below Lotto - Powerball 1 2 3 4 5 6 - 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 - 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 - 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 - 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 - 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 - 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 - 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 - 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 - 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 - 10 This reduces the chances of winning First Division for the number of lines taken but it guarantees that winning first division is also winning Powerball. In other words the odds of winning Powerball reduce from 1 in 38,383,800 to 1 in 3,838,380. There are also other advantages gained. |
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31st January 2012, 11:10 PM | #68 |
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I don't mind you being skeptical, it being difficult to furnish proof of an event from ten years ago when they don't even let you keep the stubs.
However, to address your other point I've never seen a posted list crossing off the numbers won. This might be a regional habit, or something they do now (I don't pay attention to the tabs, I only bought them this once). I did, however, ask the guy behind the counter how many $100 ones were usually in a batch and he did say three - but I don't know how accurate that is, since he was just a worker bee behind the counter and may have been influenced by the event. Mind you, if I'd known I was going to win $300 I would have kept my mouth shut. Instead I got taught a lesson about making a joke. |
31st January 2012, 11:35 PM | #69 |
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There are no advantages in playing this way. The odds of winning powerball are exactly the same as if he had chosen 10 non-overlapping sets. The chances of winning First division in the standard lotto are 1/10th that of making 10 independent picks but the payoff cannot ever be 10 times the payoff of a single draw and could be no better than a single draw. |
31st January 2012, 11:58 PM | #70 |
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In the NZ Big Wednesday Lotto you pick 6 numbers for one prize then there's a heads and tails toss for the major prize. Are you saying there's no advantage to covering both heads and tails with the same numbers on two tickets? You seem to be saying that buying two tickets with different numbers is as "good" as covering the coin toss with two tickets of the same numbers (one ticket all heads and one ticket all tails).
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1st February 2012, 12:17 AM | #71 |
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1st February 2012, 04:00 AM | #72 |
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1st February 2012, 04:09 AM | #73 |
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About 15 million to 1, which is greater than the odds of my true anecdote, and which, hence, trumps yours:
I took a vacation in Rome. One afternoon I bought a circular 'coin-like' pendant from a market stall to put on my existing neck chain. Unfortunately, however, it didn't have a metal split ring on it, only a hole in it, so I determined to locate a small split ring later, possibly from a jewellers. After returning to the hotel, however, whilst heading to the bathroom to take a shower, I stood on something with my bare foot on the hard wooden floor boards. Upon examination it was, of course ... a metal split ring, perfectly sized. What are the odds? Around 20 million to 1, I'd say, give or take. |
1st February 2012, 04:19 AM | #74 |
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I think what jp means is that a combination of patterned numbers is less likely than a combination of un-patterned numbers, which, of course, is correct. He just didn't word it very well.
"No" to the first/second sentence or third? If the first, he's correct, and certainly does, seemingly, understand probability theory, at least to that extent. |
1st February 2012, 05:06 AM | #75 |
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1st February 2012, 09:19 AM | #76 |
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The normal First Division prize is divided by the number of winning tickets. By competing with yourself you are increasing your costs faster than you are increasing your winnings. You are paying 50¢ per ticket for the standard lotto. About 34% of the pool is allocated to the First Division prize. The chance of winning the First Division prize is about 1 in 4 million. On average, the $1M prize is shared with one other winner. With these numbers, the expected First Division payoff (Average winnings divided by cost) is ($1M / 2 * 1/4M) / (50¢ * .34) or about 73%. By competing against yourself, you win 10 of 11 shares of the prize at 10 times the cost which drops the payoff to a messily 13%.
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1st February 2012, 10:57 AM | #77 |
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I don't see how the taxes would be an advantage. To oversimplify:
Guy buys $1 ticket, wins $1,000,000, pays taxes on $999,999 at a rate of 35%, nets $649,999.35 Syndicate buys $600,000 worth of tickets, wins $1,000,000, pays taxes on $400,000 at a rate of 35%, nets $260,000. So the syndicate is behind. Let's say they both lose because the syndicate didn't quite cover all the numbers (ouch!). Guy buys $1 ticket and loses, but can deduct $1 from (future) winnings, so lost $1 but will save 35 cents in future taxes, net loss 65 cents. Syndicate buys $600,000 worth of tickets, loses, so lost $600,000 but will save $210,000 in future taxes, net loss $390,000. The syndicate is still behind. |
1st February 2012, 12:16 PM | #78 |
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Buying two tickets in the Big Wednesday doubles the chances (attempts at winning) the first draw but it doesn’t halve the odds. The winning odds of the first ticket are virtually the same as for the second. Covering the second coin toss draw with the two tickets changes the odds from being 1 in 2 to being a guaranteed win.
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1st February 2012, 12:21 PM | #79 |
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1st February 2012, 07:18 PM | #80 |
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On the same trip we found a baggie of pot on the side of the road including a couple already rolled joints. Since we didn't bring any with us crossing the border that was great luck. Then one night we put our bed rolls down after dark. Upon awakening we found we were in a area thick with cacti yet we didn't have a scratch on either of us. More good luck. We ran out of money but stumbled into a local impending 3 day concert with Tina Turner as the headliner. We both got jobs and came away with more than enough money to continue. And once when we couldn't get a ride after dark my friend said if we light a candle a truck driver would stop. Sure enough we did and we got a ride with a truck driver within a couple minutes.
By themselves, the odds were low but all those things one one trip? Absolutely fantastic. This is a true story, BTW. |
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