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26th December 2013, 10:34 PM | #1 |
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Improbable things about 9/11.
Improbable things regarding 9/11.
What improbable things happened regarding 9/11? We all understand almost anything is possible, but what are the odds? On September the 10th, if you tried to come up with the odds that certain things would happen the next day if an attack occurred that involved four hijacked airplanes doing what we saw on 9/11, what things would you include and what do you think the odds would be for that particular thing happening? Also include things that we learned about later; such as what are the odds the drills that were occurring happened to have occurred on the same day, 9/11. For example, finding an undamaged passport of somebody on one of the planes that hit the Twin Towers, was that improbable? I think it was. How improbable was it do you think? I think that it was much more improbable that it was one of the hijacker’s passports. How much more improbable does that make it? When I say “how improbable” I mean what are the odds. For example was it a one in two possibility? Or a one in ten possibility? What do you think the probability or odds were in finding not just a passport, but a hijacker’s passport? Tell me what you think, was it is one in … what? What in how many? We all understand almost anything is possible, but what are the odds? So come up with as many things as you can that the odds of it happening were less than 1 in 2, i.e., fifty - fifty. And state what you think the reasonable odds would have been on the day before 9/11. |
26th December 2013, 10:54 PM | #2 |
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26th December 2013, 11:17 PM | #3 |
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What difference does it make? We know how the attacks happened and who carried them out. Seeing as we know what happened the probability of it happening seems rather high.
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26th December 2013, 11:20 PM | #4 |
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David the "odds" - the probability to state it more pedantically - of a past event which has happened is 100%.
The odds of a person winning a lottery with 100,000 tickets - before the draw AND presuming a fairly conducted event - is 1:100,000. For the person whose number is drawn - after the draw - it is certainty - 100%. Before the draw along with 99,999 other tickets the "odds" were 1:100,000 All that is simple fact. However persons who do not understand those simple basic facts can get quite confused. And there are many "truthers" who - along with other weaknesses of understanding of reasoning and logic - get confused when applying their limited understanding of "odds" or "probability" to 9/11 events. I cannot see how talking of "odds" or "probabilities" can help understanding of 9/11. Unless the intention is to confuse gullible people into becoming truthers. For every item of fact only one assessment matters - is the fact a true fact or is it a false fact. And since the facts are items of evidence - what is the weight of each true or false fact in the sum total of evidence which is relevant to whatever conclusion - "verdict" - is being drawn. And your excursion into "probabilities" is futile for another reason. The "odds" in prospective view on 9/10 are equally irrelevant for what really happened as they are for whatever slant you want to put on a "truther" claim. Just as "free fall' does not distinguish "CD induced collapse" from so called "natural collapse" - odds do not distinguish false claims from true facts. Whichever way round you want to apply those two at this stage. The "odds" do not assist understanding. They further confuse the gullible people who are already confused and they irritate those of us who see them used to mendaciously "sell" misunderstanding. So "What do I think the probability or odds were in finding not just a passport, but a hijacker’s passport?" 100%. Dead certainty - after the event. It was found. BUT I suspect that you are not asking the right question. |
26th December 2013, 11:25 PM | #5 |
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26th December 2013, 11:26 PM | #6 |
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Apparently not as improbable as you might think. The velocity of the jet, combined with the location of the hijacker (cockpit) allowed that debris to get all the way thru the building before the explosion.
The fuel was carried well behind the nose, obviously. There was a huge amount of personal fx from the passengers on the ground around the towers, including airline tickets, wallets, ID etc... At the Shanksville crash site a fair amount of personal fx from passengers and crew was recovered also. The most relevant thing to consider is whether this is plausible. Certainly since we know the identity of the aircraft, the passengers, crew and hijackers, and we know that they flew into the towers, it's plausible that the wreckage below would include some personal artifacts. Nothing special, but undoubtedly disturbing and creepy. People, including hijackers, died. Some of their stuff was recovered. None of this has any connection to supposed evidence for controlled demolition, yet 9/11 Truthers somehow tie it into their endless speculation about conspiracies. What's really improbable is that there could be controlled demolition without any evidence of high explosives. No squibs, no cutter charges, no det cord, no cut steel. Nada. No explosions as WTC 7 fell. Therefore, highly improbable that controlled demolition (actually, it wouldn't be very controlled considering the mess that the collapses left) occurred. Truthers are the ones grasping at straws, only they fail to recognize this. |
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26th December 2013, 11:28 PM | #7 |
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I think the chance of finding somthing personal for one or more of the passengers would be quite high. Many items went right through the building, as did many parts of the aircraft.
Whats your point |
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26th December 2013, 11:29 PM | #8 |
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26th December 2013, 11:32 PM | #9 |
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What are the odds that on September 20 1949, the day I was born, that somebody would predict that I would be making this post on a BB in 2013?
Quite huge I suspect, I would not even know how many zeros to add after the first "one" and yet I am here which makes the odds 1:1. Norm |
26th December 2013, 11:33 PM | #10 |
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26th December 2013, 11:34 PM | #11 |
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I'm curious, how did this thread play out in you mind before started it? Was there some trap of cunning logic we were supposed to fall into? Upon springing said trap were we all supposed to have a revelation about the "truth" of 9/11.
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26th December 2013, 11:46 PM | #12 |
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My short list of improbable things on 9/11:
Taking four planes and making them, the crew, passengers and hijackers disappear, substituting them with holograms or cruise missiles. Taking the DNA from all the passengers, crew and hijackers and flying it to fake crash sites where it was planted before investigators or anyone else would notice. Substituting fake bodies in the wreckage at the Pentagon and Shanksville so that coroners wouldn't find it suspicious, but changing the DNA of those bodies to match the passenger lists from the jets. Planting fake, yet identical, landing gear, luggage, passports and ID at all 4 crash sites, without anyone noticing. Faking all the emergency phone calls (David Ray Griffin theory) from the jets to loved ones or others. Using voice morphing technology to fool loved ones that the caller was authentic. Using conventional explosives, thermite, thermate and nanothermite in wildly complicated combinations, all without detection from even a single person among the thousands working in the towers and building 7. Cutting thru office walls, moving furniture and attaching incendiaries and explosives, then putting everything back without detection. Cutting all the way to perimeter steel in the towers to attach cutter charges, then employing never-before-seen cutter charges to make the steel look like it wasn't cut. Cutting the perimeter columns of the towers without any ring of explosions visible to any video camera. Create a massive inward-bowing of the perimeter columns of the towers to mimic sagging floor trusses, then mimic the eventual failure of the columns in a gradual way, using nanothermite and explosives. Painting explosives on in 25 micron layers to cut thru the steel Figuring out exactly where the jets would collide so as to coordinate the explosives and incendiaries with those regions of the towers. Preventing the nanothermite from cooking off in the office fires in WTC 1, WTC 2 and WTC 7, so it could survive to ignite the thermite or conventional explosives. Even though nanothermite burns apparently (Harrit et al.) at 430ş C; In spite of the fires in WTC 7, execute a perfect controlled demolition, while masking all sounds of explosives. Corrupt the surviving leadership of FDNY (randomly alive after the collapses of the towers) to collude with Larry Silverstein to demolish WTC 7 - while it was burning, and after they'd lost over 300 firefighters. Corrupt NORAD systems, Air Traffic Controllers, US Airforce in such a way that it appeared they were doing their jobs properly, as mandated, yet failed to stop the attacks. Make sure not one corrupted person in the entire conspiracy spilled the beans, even after 12 years. Plant nuclear bombs in the towers to disintegrate them, leaving no trace. Turn all major buildings to dust through a never-before-seen process of molecular disassociation. Turn all the steel into dust, yet leave 100's of thousands of tons to be shipped to China and melted down. Develop a special type of nanothermite instead of conventional detonators, which chemically is identical to certain primer paint used on WTC steel. Convince 100's of eyewitnesses at the Pentagon that the cruise missile was actually a normal passenger jet - without talking to them before or after the crash. That's a short list, I could go on... |
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26th December 2013, 11:49 PM | #13 |
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27th December 2013, 12:30 AM | #14 |
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Given that a team of terrorists had determined that the events would occur more or less as they did, all of it is highly probable, to include finding an item that we could expect to be in the cockpit of one of the aircraft safely ejected out the other side. They aint made of glass, you know.
It was slightly less likely that Flt 93 would go down in Shanksville, in that that was the result of someone's having re-written the hijackers' scenario in mid-course. To an experienced crash crew member and the best ditch-digger to ever do day labor in an area covered in glacial moraine, there are no anomalies about the crash site. WTC7 is anomalous only to the extent that it was hit by randomly-falling debris and that there was not water available to fight the fires inside because the water mains were broken in the area. It is unlikely that this was planned, and is just the result of the way the water supply was built. Now, as for the drills going on at the time, we had already been under the threat of terrorist attack by either al Qaeda or National Vanguard for decades. It was hurricane season. What is so strange about FEMA running drills that had bugger-all to do with a 9/11 type scenario at that time? |
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27th December 2013, 12:35 AM | #15 |
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Awesome, alienentity!
@ OP (who has probably flown off again after crapping out that OP): Your Argument from Incredulity is a form of the Argument from Ignorance Logical Fallacy. Just because you can't believe something happened doesn't mean you know what happened. It just means you're confused. Stick around and learn something. |
27th December 2013, 12:51 AM | #16 |
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I always found that line of reasoning personally offensive. We're talking about my brothers here. You do not shut a fire fighter up with any kind of threats when they already want your danglies hanging on the bumper of a garbage truck for issuing you such crappy communications gear as what Rotten Rudy gave them.
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Again, we have a fire fighter who was almost sucked into the engine of the in-bound plane, and he did not die of barotrauma when the bloody thing blew up. There was, therefore, no slightest possibility that that vehicle was transporting high explosives of any description. |
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27th December 2013, 01:14 AM | #17 |
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27th December 2013, 01:35 AM | #18 |
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Given that 000's of things happened then the chances of things happening that, a posteriori, look unusual are very high indeed.
I also have a feeling in my bones that you're going to list some probabilities for a number of certain events and multiply them together to get the probability of them all happening on the same day. I really hope you dont. |
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27th December 2013, 01:42 AM | #19 |
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27th December 2013, 03:07 AM | #20 |
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Are you saying that because you flipped a coin and it came up "tails" 100 times in a row, the probability that it would come up 100 times in a row as "tails" was 100%? Given that example, everything that has ever happened in history was 100% guaranteed. Was it not? That would explain why Las Vegas does not take bets after a game.
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27th December 2013, 03:51 AM | #21 |
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You are confusing the probability of a future event with the probability of a past event. Three times in that post.
If I take a coin and prepare to toss it the probability of "heads" is 50% AFTER I have tossed it and it came up "tails" the probability of "tails" is 100% The same fact stated differently - after I have tossed once and got tails the probability of that toss being heads is zero. Now read your post - "came up" is retrospective - looking back post the event. "that it would" is prospective - looking forward to what is about to happen. If some event has two possible outcomes - "A" or "B" then before the event the probabilities are "A" OR "B" Then the event produces "B" The probability of "B" is then 100% The probability of "A" is then 0% "B" happened - "A" didn't. Now read and understand the point GlennB made in post #18 and I commented on in post #19. |
27th December 2013, 04:10 AM | #22 |
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27th December 2013, 05:00 AM | #23 |
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Most improbable thing?
Who knew there were so many cretins with computers. |
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Facts are simple and facts are straight, facts are lazy and facts are late, facts don't come with points of view, facts don't do what I want them to. ************************** Apollo Hoax Debunked |
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27th December 2013, 05:56 AM | #24 |
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I could live with that definition - as long as you don't try to change it when you discuss past events of 9/11
Which is the point I have made several times. OR any other %age less than 100. Good oh. Now tell us what the OP is trying to say and assure us that it is not loaded with lies by innuendo. Why all the fuss about the probability of multiple 9/11 events which are all "...100% guaranteed that it happened"? |
27th December 2013, 06:00 AM | #25 |
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Who cares?
What happened, happened. It is now a matter of historical record and predicted probabilities don't mean anything. I will take what actually happened over what you think should likely have happened every time. We certainly do not care about the recovered passport of one Satam Al Suqami . It isn't of any use as evidence - it doesn't prove he was on the plane - so only conspiracy nutters seem find any meaning in it. Even then they only find meaning in it because they are completely ignorant of all the many other items of personal effects that littered the streets of Manhattan from the planes. Failure to see the forest due to excess fascination with the pattern of the leaves. In short, the odds of finding personal effects after a plane crash are 100%, so your example fails. From: Yankees pitcher killed in crash of small plane in Manhattan (http://www.cnn.com/2006/US/10/11/pla...index.html)NEW YORK (CNN) -- Yankees pitcher Cory Lidle and his flight instructor were killed Wednesday when the 34-year-old ballplayer's plane crashed into a high-rise apartment building in New York, city and baseball team officials said. No residents at the Belaire Condominiums at 524 E. 72nd Street near the East River were injured. Two bodies and Lidle's passport were found in the street, responders told CNN. |
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So I'm going to tell you what the facts are, and the facts are the facts, but then we know the truth. That always overcomes facts. |
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27th December 2013, 06:42 AM | #26 |
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27th December 2013, 07:17 AM | #27 |
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From the beginning of the universe, many trillions of events needed to transpire for any subsequent event to happen today. For humans, one spear flying an inch to the left may have missed delivering a fatal wound to a mastodon letting it get away and thus allowing the tribe to starve. One glace to the left at a given moment and one of your great great grandparents may not have seen one another and met or they may have met and consummated children later. The original sperm that made your great grand parent from that union would be long gone and a whole different person would have developed. A train 20 seconds delayed would change several chance events and change the future.
All these events occurring in the precise time and place make the probability of anything astronomical...until they happen. ETA: Obviously (according to the OP) since the odds are so great of everything since the beginning of time transpiring exactly as they needed to, Mohammed Attah never existed. |
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27th December 2013, 07:34 AM | #28 |
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If you'll indulge me, a hypothetical.
[Alternate reality mode engaged] Kick the tires and light the fires, we're off.
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[Alternate reality mode disengaged] This is the problem with anomaly hunting. No matter what happened or how it happened, all you have to do is say that YOU don't think that's how it should have happened, and boom, inside job. |
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27th December 2013, 07:55 AM | #29 |
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I have one friend and one acquaintance that survived headshots from the 7.62 x 39 AK round - one guy is disfigured and has a speech impediment, the other guy looks permanently surprised.
Even with those two examples in front of me, I wouldn't lay odds on anyone surviving a headshot. As trite as it sounds, anything can happen, and it will. |
27th December 2013, 08:06 AM | #30 |
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Quote:
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27th December 2013, 08:22 AM | #31 |
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27th December 2013, 08:24 AM | #32 |
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GIVEN: that personal effects of passengers and crew are always found after the crash of airliners, the probability of such happening in this case is nigh on 100%. In fact one of the hardest things that NTSB crews have to do is deal with the emotional trauma of finding things like a child's shoes.
Do you have an example of an airliner crash in which no trace of personal effects are found? In this case only those effects that made it out of the building are most likely to be found. These would necessarily be items small and light enough to be blown out while not being torn apart. The larger the object the greater the pressure differential accross it and the greater the odds of it being torn apart. The denser the item the less the odds that it will get enough force behind it to clear the perimeter of the structure. A human body is both relatively dense, and relatively large. Odds of it escaping the towers are small and even if it did (as in if the person were standing next to the window at the time) the mere fact of it being outside the tower and hundreds of feet in the air bode ill for the continued survival of that person. In addition, since it is rather dense it is also not likely to go very far from the building and that will result in that person's body being buried by the rubble when the structure collapses. A passport IS lightweight. It is also relatively small and has a relatively tough front and back cover. You may remember the office papers blowing about when the towers were hit, and again when they fell. Once outside the towers paper objects are light enough to be affected by wind and to 'flutter', both of which allow it to remain in the air for a longer time than denser objects would. This then increases the probability of a paper object moving outside the area where the bulk of the rubble will be when the towers collapse. That alone tells you that these two properties bode well for an item to escape destruction. In summary then: - low density increases probability of an item escaping the building - small size increases probability of an item escaping the building - the fact of large amounts of paper blowing around illustrates good probability that any specific paper object will escape the structure |
27th December 2013, 08:40 AM | #33 |
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What's the odds that thousands of armed men would show up on the beaches of Normandy just at the right time to invade Europe?
Some of them had just the right equipment to destroy barbed wire, whats' the chance of that? It was the first time in history that that many men did such a thing, what's the odds of that? Must have been a false flag. |
27th December 2013, 08:45 AM | #34 |
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http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/w...cle3552324.ece
Plane crash, US dollars, British passport, who did it ? |
27th December 2013, 08:48 AM | #35 |
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I think on September 10, 2001, most people would have thought the odds to be less than one in a million. In actuality, the truel odds of the 9/11 attacks being at all successful on 9/10 were probably closer to 9:2.
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27th December 2013, 08:53 AM | #36 |
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After a high speed plane crash in California, they found the hijackers note that he had written on a barf bag, as well as part of the gun with parts of his body attached.
Probability does not work that way david. |
27th December 2013, 09:02 AM | #37 |
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It was when my dear auntie told me she won the national lottery, big millions, I said she was the luckiest person ever. Of course you would say she was only one of the lucky ones. There are people who win big lotteries now and then. But when I found out later that afternoon she also won the powerball I was beginning to wonder about sheer probability of events. Sure as hell i never saw in real anyone winning big millions but that doesn't mean such people never existed. I never thou even heard of anyone winning 2 grand lotteries, much less the same day. Now i could say that my auntie was indeed the luckiest person ever. I was happy of course and i hoped some of the money would land in my pocket so i didn't question the odds. She could well be in league with demons or something, who cares. i assumed as did ozeko that chances of events that have happened are 100%. Next day my dear auntie found an arab passport in the rubbish bin, which puzzled me more. She called it Texas sharpshooters fallacy and you cant argue with that. I never saw any of the money. One thing is she never really liked me, besides, she has expenses. For example she is building a wall in the garden, not a usual wall, mind you, but one costing 50 million dollars. I asked what she wants with the wall. She just repeats the usual, that people are gullible. This is difficult to comprehend so i am beginning to suspect she is building the imaginary line to separate mystification from bs.
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27th December 2013, 09:09 AM | #38 |
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awww Mikeys, it was your fantasy , you could have written in a few hundred bucks for yourself. Perhaps she could have given it to you just to get you to go away.
***** separate mystification from bs????? How will you survive given the fact that you are always seemingly mystified and a great believer in bs. |
27th December 2013, 09:18 AM | #39 |
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If you'd said it was your uncle and it was a smaller win I would have believed you
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...id-Wilkes.html |
27th December 2013, 09:46 AM | #40 |
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