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Old 27th December 2013, 09:52 AM   #41
jaydeehess
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Originally Posted by 16.5 View Post
After a high speed plane crash in California, they found the hijackers note that he had written on a barf bag, as well as part of the gun with parts of his body attached.

Probability does not work that way david.
There has to be a relavant "Hitchhikers Guide" joke to be made here. I just cannot come up with one......
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Old 27th December 2013, 09:53 AM   #42
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Originally Posted by david.watts View Post
Improbable things regarding 9/11.

What improbable things happened regarding 9/11?

We all understand almost anything is possible, but what are the odds?

On September the 10th, if you tried to come up with the odds that certain things would happen the next day if an attack occurred that involved four hijacked airplanes doing what we saw on 9/11, what things would you include and what do you think the odds would be for that particular thing happening? Also include things that we learned about later; such as what are the odds the drills that were occurring happened to have occurred on the same day, 9/11.

For example, finding an undamaged passport of somebody on one of the planes that hit the Twin Towers, was that improbable? I think it was. How improbable was it do you think? I think that it was much more improbable that it was one of the hijacker’s passports. How much more improbable does that make it? When I say “how improbable” I mean what are the odds. For example was it a one in two possibility? Or a one in ten possibility? What do you think the probability or odds were in finding not just a passport, but a hijacker’s passport? Tell me what you think, was it is one in … what? What in how many?


We all understand almost anything is possible, but what are the odds?
So come up with as many things as you can that the odds of it happening were less than 1 in 2, i.e., fifty - fifty. And state what you think the reasonable odds would have been on the day before 9/11.
Remember, you spread lies about 911 for no reason because you think murderers can't do murder.

What is improbable is you understanding physics, or that you made up the "path of least resistance law" a law so stupid it is improbable someone could make it up, or repeat something so darn stupid. Improbable.

http://www.opednews.com/Diary/9-11-H...80324-705.html

It is improbable someone would spread so many lies like you do about 911, but gee, you did it, and now you expose your faulty logic on why it is improbable something that happened was improbable, and you list...

Yes, you list...

Zero evidence - except faulty logic. The path of least resistance was improbable, but you spread it due to what? Lack of knowledge? Or faulty logic?

Quote:
For example, finding an undamaged passport of somebody on one of the planes that hit the Twin Towers, was that improbable?
Not as improbable as falling for the "path of least resistance" due to ignorance, and making up silly lies about 911.

When aircraft crash, there is stuff that remains untouched. I have investigated accidents, and you claim to be a pilot, but you don't know anything practical about aircraft accidents, or aircraft accident investigations because you don't care to learn, or do simple research. Good job. Great work, 12 years of solid failure, a legacy of woo at Op Ed News, where the big lie is called... the truth. Improbable?

I thought it was improbable so many people made up lies about 911, but look, here you are spreading lies.

Things make it through accidents, and you now know it is true. Can you learn, or what?

Last edited by beachnut; 27th December 2013 at 09:59 AM.
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Old 27th December 2013, 10:09 AM   #43
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Originally Posted by DGM View Post
How about finding this after Columbia broke up returning from space?

http://i1124.photobucket.com/albums/...wood/patch.jpg

What do think the odds were of this?
I came across a story about this recently, I think it's highly relevant. The debris from the Columbia disaster was spread out over several states, including Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas. Yet somehow a roll of undeveloped film was found which included the following picture. What are the odds of that happening? Are we now to propose that this was 'planted' by some nefarious conspiracy as well? I suppose there are nutjobs out there who will do just that...

http://i.space.com/images/i/000/007/...jpg?1296494876

Edited by LashL:  Edited to change hotlinked image to regular link. Please see Rule 5.
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Last edited by LashL; 27th December 2013 at 06:52 PM.
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Old 27th December 2013, 10:25 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by david.watts View Post
Are you saying that because you flipped a coin and it came up "tails" 100 times in a row, the probability that it would come up 100 times in a row as "tails" was 100%? Given that example, everything that has ever happened in history was 100% guaranteed. Was it not? That would explain why Las Vegas does not take bets after a game.
Add probability to the long list of things 911 truth followers and spreaders of woo don't do. It is improbable a group so small can all share the same failed logic and lack of knowledge, but here you are.

Originally Posted by david.watts View Post
Past events do not have a probability. Only a probability of it happening before it happened. What happened in the past is 100% guaranteed that it happened. I will not attempt to argue that the probability of George Washington being the 1st president is only 99%.
Wow, means 911 was not improbable? Cause it happened. Means 911 truth followers can't understand things. I still love the "path of least resistance" junk, where did you get that? Bet it was from Gage, he makes money spreading lies, a professional liar. What are you, as you spread lies about 911?

http://www.opednews.com/Diary/9-11-H...80324-705.html
Quote:
and the FDR recorded (data provided by the NTSB/government) that the 757 that allegedly hit the Pentagon actually flew on a different track (as corroborated by witnesses at the time including Pentagon policemen) than the Official Story requires; and that same FDR recorded the 757 never being low enough to hit the Pentagon; then something ELSE must have hit the
What are the chance you make up lies about 911? 100 percent. Proof is this gem of silly junk.
The FDR is exactly the path 77 hit the Pentagon, backed up by RADAR, and all the witnesses back it up too, but then you believed CIT, a few drugged up nuts who lied about 911. What is the probability you got your lies from drugged up nuts? 100 percent.

What is the probability you failed to check RADAR data before you posted this lie? 100 percent? lol

Here you go, a pilot who can't comprehend RADAR data. Improbable?

Quote:
How improbable is it you don't understand law? wow, I see what you mean, 911 truth is improbable, but they exist, spreading lies dumbed down to fool a fringe few.

Last edited by beachnut; 27th December 2013 at 10:53 AM.
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Old 27th December 2013, 10:52 AM   #45
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Originally Posted by alienentity View Post
I came across a story about this recently, I think it's highly relevant. The debris from the Columbia disaster was spread out over several states, including Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas. Yet somehow a roll of undeveloped film was found which included the following picture. What are the odds of that happening? Are we now to propose that this was 'planted' by some nefarious conspiracy as well? I suppose there are nutjobs out there who will do just that...
http://i.space.com/images/i/000/007/...jpg?1296494876
Proof the Columbia was Shot Down by a Secret Air Force Laser

http://venjanztruth.blogspot.com/200...-revealed.html




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Old 27th December 2013, 10:59 AM   #46
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No really David, how were you thinking this was going to go?
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Old 27th December 2013, 11:25 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by Spanx View Post
If you'd said it was your uncle and it was a smaller win I would have believed you


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...id-Wilkes.html
Maybe his aunt has a mustache?
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Old 27th December 2013, 11:55 AM   #48
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Originally Posted by Spanx View Post
If you'd said it was your uncle and it was a smaller win I would have believed you


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...id-Wilkes.html
But you believed the dailymail! I see your problem.
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Old 27th December 2013, 11:58 AM   #49
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Originally Posted by Mikeys View Post
But you believed the dailymail! I see your problem.
And what problem would that be ?
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Old 27th December 2013, 12:07 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by Spanx View Post
And what problem would that be ?
That Mikey's is upset you believe the daily mail before you'd ever believe him!
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Old 27th December 2013, 12:16 PM   #51
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We all understand almost anything is possible, but what were the odds?
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Old 27th December 2013, 12:18 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by david.watts View Post
We all understand almost anything is possible, but what were the odds?
911 truth has no idea what happened on 911; they prefer to make up lies and fantasy, dumb ones, like this lie.

Quote:
the flight data recorders themselves would contain recorded flight information from previous flights made by the aircraft and could be used for positive identification of the aircraft, yet they refuse to release the data even though that would put doubts to rest http://www.opednews.com/Diary/9-11-H...80324-705.html
I have the data on my computers. Oops, a lie. Where did you get this lie? Copy and paste, or what?

Odds? From 911 truth? The math free movement. Give us a break - 12 years and not a single thing right - a perfect record of woo

Last edited by beachnut; 27th December 2013 at 12:23 PM.
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Old 27th December 2013, 12:18 PM   #53
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Originally Posted by david.watts View Post
We all understand almost anything is possible, but what were the odds?
Of what? What were the odds that you would make that post? The fact you think it's hard to believe does not change the odds on something happening.
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Old 27th December 2013, 12:22 PM   #54
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To that end. The odds that the events of 9/11 would happen were really good. It's hard to put a number on it but, we had gotten so complacent with security that this was inevitable. I'd say the odds of a terrorist attack on the US was near 100%.
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Old 27th December 2013, 12:23 PM   #55
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Originally Posted by jaydeehess View Post
awww Mikeys, it was your fantasy , you could have written in a few hundred bucks for yourself. Perhaps she could have given it to you just to get you to go away.

***** separate mystification from bs????? How will you survive given the fact that you are always seemingly mystified and a great believer in bs.
I would think that to survive one need to be able to separate bs from probability before one can consider reality.
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Old 27th December 2013, 12:27 PM   #56
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ozeco, Does not your logic end up here? -

One hijacker's passport found -- 100% probability. Therefore, the probability of finding zero or two hijacker's passports -- zero%. They found one.
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Old 27th December 2013, 12:28 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by DGM View Post
To that end. The odds that the events of 9/11 would happen were really good. It's hard to put a number on it but, we had gotten so complacent with security that this was inevitable. I'd say the odds of a terrorist attack on the US was near 100%.
Ill turn it around; if the odds of a terrorist attack on the US was near 100%, why we had gotten so complacent with security.
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Old 27th December 2013, 12:29 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
Given that 000's of things happened then the chances of things happening that, a posteriori, look unusual are very high indeed.

I also have a feeling in my bones that you're going to list some probabilities for a number of certain events and multiply them together to get the probability of them all happening on the same day. I really hope you dont.
I'm pretty sure that's the intention, given the number of 9's he says he puts after the dot. It would be nice to educate david.watts on why that would be a bad idea.


David, let me tell you an anecdote. The day of the attacks I was having lunch at a bar near my job, as nearly every day (it was 3pm here). I was eating cold meats with cheese and salad, because that day they ran out of everything else. What are the odds? That happened about twice a year during the three years I was working there. The probability of that happening on the day of the 9/11 attacks was thus about 2 in 365 or slightly above 0.5%.

Can you now take that 0.5% and multiply it to the previous odds to obtain an even less likely probability of 9/11 happening? I hope you agree with me that you can't do that. If we put together everything that happened around the world that very day, and multiply the odds, the only conclusion would be that it was impossible. But then the very same argument could be done about every other day, not just 9/11. Highly unlikely things happen every day, everywhere.

Why, then, do you multiply the rest of stuff so happily? That anecdote happened on 9/11, so it has a relationship with 9/11. If you don't agree it had to do with 9/11, you'll have to explain what relationship the drills you mention bore with 9/11 at all, and what do they count for. I have the hunch that you're uneducated in that matter too.

Since I don't know what drills you mean, I'll assume you mean military drills. What are the odds, you say, that military drills were happening that very day? Well, pretty high. Still not 100%, I hear you saying, therefore they will still reduce the total odds when multiplied to the rest, right?

Wrong.

I mean, yes, they would reduce the odds when multiplied, but it doesn't matter, because it isn't correct to multiply it. You don't define exactly what probability you're calculating. The probability of what, exactly? That 19 hijackers crashed the 4 planes that day? And what role do the drills play in that, exactly?

Before answering that, let me ask you something. Let's assume, by hypothesis, that the existence of the drills favor that the terrorists crashed the planes. Would you multiply the odds to the total in that case?

And now, let's assume, again by hypothesis, that the existence of the drills goes against the odds that the terrorists crashed the planes. Would you multiply the odds to the total in that case?

My hope here is that you realize how confused you are on this matter. Not that I have a high hope after the wishful thinking you've shown in another thread related to what the "null hypothesis" actually is (which alienentity has shredded to pieces masterfully with his own list of highly unlikely events), but I've decided to give it a second try, as you seem kind of receptive to some reasoned arguments.

And that's not even the main reason of why it's a bad idea to multiply the odds together. For one, they are not independent events (as required by probability theory to let us do the math that way). Probability is highly counter-intuitive, as demonstrated for example by the Monty Hall problem.

But there's yet an even more powerful reason to not do the math that way. As a saying I've seen attributed to Scott D. Sagan goes, things that have never happened before happen all the time. Unexpected things are expected in many events. In one of the magnitude of 9/11, you expect lots.

Why is that significant? Well, a priori we don't know what the unlikely events are going to be. Let me illustrate that with a double example. Let's assume, by hypothesis, that someone could predict that an attack involving hijackers and planes would happen before 9/11 and their objectives.

If that person predicted things exactly as they happened on the day of the attacks (Atta's luggage would be left on the airport, there would be no clear camera filming the Pentagon crash, the passports of two hijackers in AA-11 and two in UA-93 would be recovered, the towers falling in the time they did, etc.) would that be significant? HELL YEAH! What are the odds of predicting everything exactly as it happened? You can then take your calculator and do the math.

But now, what if that person's series of predictions of highly unlikely events didn't get anything significant right? Say for example the predictions included that six planes would carry 3 hijackers each, that one of the planes would succeed crashing against the Capitol, being filmed by just two cameras in there and many other details regarding the Capitol crash (that never actually occurred); that the Pentagon crash was filmed by 3 amateurs and 5 security cameras, one of them with high resolution; that one of the hijackers would be a woman, married to the pilot of one of the planes she was not in; that a small bag carrying anthrax would be found in one of the sites, miraculously undamaged, saving the lives of many... You can go on for me figuring out your own series of highly unlikely events.

Now, keeping in mind that we're assuming by hypothesis, and just for the sake of argument, that the attacks were somehow known and therefore not counting that part in the odds, what would the significance of these predictions be? Really moot, right? Unless... that's what actually happened! In that case, the significance would be really big, and that person would be the winner of many lotteries, as in Mikey's story. And you would be calculating the odds against that series of events instead.

Well, imagine yourself making a list of every possible way that the attacks could have happened. Don't bother trying; there are probably trillions of them. The odds of any of these trillions happening is really really small. Yet one of them happened.

So what?

After the fact, it doesn't make any sense to calculate these odds, because one of the zillion possibilities had to happen anyway, including some unexpected events that never happened before, because it would be much, much more unlikely that there was no unexpected event at all that day.

if you go ahead and calculate the odds as if there were independent events, what you obtain would actually be an estimate of how many possible ways things could have happened that day, NOT the odds that it happened.

That's the big flaw in your reasoning.

Last edited by pgimeno; 27th December 2013 at 12:40 PM. Reason: minor wording changes
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Old 27th December 2013, 12:34 PM   #59
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Originally Posted by david.watts View Post
We all understand almost anything is possible, but what were the odds?
Are you asking what the actual mathematical odds are? Because that would next to impossible to actually calculate since we don't have all of the data required to make the calculation...including where the passport was, what path it took, what other objects were around it...etc. The collision was so chaotic, that that passport probable made over 1000 interactions or non-interactions with the surrounding events. But if you must know it was 1024.3253 to 1.

Or is this some truther "gotcha" question where if we can't answer, you think "I win!! Inside job!!" ?
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Old 27th December 2013, 12:38 PM   #60
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Originally Posted by Mikeys View Post
Ill turn it around; if the odds of a terrorist attack on the US was near 100%, why we had gotten so complacent with security.
Because we're Americans and don't like being bothered by things like the TSA. I figured even you would have gathered this by now.

It will happen again after the public forgets and sees no reason they have to remove their shoes or take shampoo bottles from their luggage.
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Old 27th December 2013, 12:41 PM   #61
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Originally Posted by david.watts View Post
ozeco, Does not your logic end up here? -

One hijacker's passport found -- 100% probability. Therefore, the probability of finding zero or two hijacker's passports -- zero%. They found one.
I have worked aircraft accidents, lots of stuff is ejected and is not burnt or crushed. The airspeed indicator, ejected 400 feet in perfect condition. I worked the accident, and you, make up lies about 911. I did work, you do fantasy, making up silly statements which prove you have no experience in reality.

Better luck with Bigfoot, you can use the same evidence, made up nonsense. Bigfoot is a better fantasy, it is not making fun of thousands of murdered humans, you don't care about.

http://www.opednews.com/Diary/9-11-H...80324-705.html
When will you retract all these silly lies?
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Old 27th December 2013, 12:45 PM   #62
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Coincidences and highly unlikely things do happen. But, how unlikely were they? How many very unlikely things happened? How many coincidences are required to explain away many very unlikely things? The answer would be many.

How likely is it that many very unlikely things happened during one event?

I mean, what were the odds that one hijacker's passport would be found AND only one filing cabinet would be found?

I wonder.

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Old 27th December 2013, 12:47 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by DGM View Post
Because we're Americans and don't like being bothered by things like the TSA. I figured even you would have gathered this by now.

It will happen again after the public forgets and sees no reason they have to remove their shoes or take shampoo bottles from their luggage.
So what had been our worries; lack of security or imminent terrorist attack with probability of 100%?
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Old 27th December 2013, 12:49 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by david.watts View Post
Coincidences and highly unlikely things do happen. But, how unlikely were they? How many very unlikely things happened? How many coincidences are required to explain away many very unlikely things? The answer would be many.

How likely is it that many very unlikely things happened during one event?

I mean, what were the odds that one hijacker's passport would be found AND only one filing cabinet would be found?

I wonder.
What are the odds that someone could plant explosives in a busy office tower undetected?

Somehow I guess you'll ignore this question?
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Old 27th December 2013, 12:50 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by david.watts View Post
Coincidences and highly unlikely things do happen. But, how unlikely were they? How many very unlikely things happened? How many coincidences are required to explain away many very unlikely things? The answer would be many.

How likely is it that many very unlikely things happened during one event?

I mean, what were the odds that one hijacker's passport would be found AND only one filing cabinet would be found?

I wonder.
David, why would anyone want to plant one of the hijackers passports ?
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Old 27th December 2013, 12:53 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by Mikeys View Post
So what had been our worries; lack of security or imminent terrorist attack with probability of 100%?
All of the above. Just the fact that you asked this shows how you where unaware of the threats of that time. Remember the Cole and embassy bombings?
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Old 27th December 2013, 12:56 PM   #67
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Originally Posted by david.watts View Post
Coincidences and highly unlikely things do happen. But, how unlikely were they? How many very unlikely things happened? How many coincidences are required to explain away many very unlikely things? The answer would be many.

How likely is it that many very unlikely things happened during one event?

I mean, what were the odds that one hijacker's passport would be found AND only one filing cabinet would be found?

I wonder.
Pretty bad, because I believe three of the hijackers' passports were found. One in New York and two in Pennsylvania.

3 out of 19 I guess?
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Old 27th December 2013, 01:00 PM   #68
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Originally Posted by david.watts View Post
ozeco, Does not your logic end up here? -

One hijacker's passport found -- 100% probability. Therefore, the probability of finding zero or two hijacker's passports -- zero%. They found one.
No. Score True; True; Undefined context and True -- respectively

My logic is accurate and has a purpose. However you are nearly correct - you change scenario with the "two hijacker's passports" which you need to define before I can answer. And, if you define it in your own mind the problem will no longer exist.

So forget logic and forget rigorous definition of probability - you have multiple examples of members playing along with your style of loose definition. That game can go on for ever.

What is your purpose? What are you trying to lead up to?

Because I'll bet understanding probability is not relevant. And I'll also bet the real issue is your reluctance to accept certain aspects of evidence which are true facts.
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Old 27th December 2013, 01:03 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by david.watts View Post
Coincidences and highly unlikely things do happen. But, how unlikely were they? How many very unlikely things happened? How many coincidences are required to explain away many very unlikely things? The answer would be many.

How likely is it that many very unlikely things happened during one event?

I mean, what were the odds that one hijacker's passport would be found AND only one filing cabinet would be found?

I wonder.
Wonder if you like. Read my message to the end, you'll see why what you're calculating is how likely it was to predict 9/11 as it happened, and why that is of zero significance after the fact. You've been told already; I've just made it more obvious to you through examples.

I was wrong, you aren't that open to reason. You've just ignored the core of my explanation to favor your preconceptions.
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Old 27th December 2013, 01:04 PM   #70
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Originally Posted by 16.5 View Post
Pretty bad, because I believe three of the hijackers' passports were found. One in New York and two in Pennsylvania.

3 out of 19 I guess?
Actually four, if we count the one in the luggage of Abdulaziz Alomari that didn't make it to Flight 11. Not that important for the argument, though.
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Old 27th December 2013, 01:05 PM   #71
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Originally Posted by ozeco41 View Post

Because I'll bet understanding probability is not relevant. And I'll also bet the real issue is your reluctance to accept certain aspects of evidence which are true facts.
But.......what is the probability of that.
















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Old 27th December 2013, 01:08 PM   #72
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Originally Posted by pgimeno View Post
Actually four, if we count the one in the luggage of Abdulaziz Alomari that didn't make it to Flight 11. Not that important for the argument, though.
Actually, very important:

4 out of 19.
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Old 27th December 2013, 01:09 PM   #73
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Originally Posted by david.watts View Post
How likely is it that many very unlikely things happened during one event?
100% certain for the things that did happen - by your own reasoning:
Originally Posted by david.watts View Post
What happened in the past is 100% guaranteed that it happened.
BUT I call FOUL on this claim:
Originally Posted by david.watts View Post
I mean, what were the odds that one hijacker's passport would be found AND only one filing cabinet would be found?
You rewrote the definition of probability with this statement:
Originally Posted by david.watts View Post
Past events do not have a probability.
You didn't like it when I told you some simple facts about probability ("odds" if you prefer the term.)

So don't deny me the use of a principle THEN turn round and use it yourself.




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Old 27th December 2013, 01:14 PM   #74
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Originally Posted by DGM View Post
Originally Posted by ozeco41
Because I'll bet understanding probability is not relevant. And I'll also bet the real issue is your reluctance to accept certain aspects of evidence which are true facts.
But.......what is the probability of that.

100% - it is a past event - or multiple past events I suppose.

And (appeal to authority):
Originally Posted by david.watts View Post
What happened in the past is 100% guaranteed that it happened.
What is the pop culture word "owned" or "pwnd"??




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Old 27th December 2013, 01:23 PM   #75
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Originally Posted by david.watts View Post
How likely is it that many very unlikely things happened during one event?
When the event itself is as unlikely and indeed unique as the 9/11 attacks I would say all of them. The importance you place on these things is entirely subjective.

Where exactly are you going with this?

OK, unlikely things happened in an unlikely event. You can name one (which I would personally not even describe as unlikely). And this proves,...?
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Old 27th December 2013, 01:30 PM   #76
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Originally Posted by DGM View Post
What are the odds that someone could plant explosives in a busy office tower undetected?

Somehow I guess you'll ignore this question?
Good point of course but I fear it's another hack to pacify research. Why do people who defend 911 also defend all other hoaxes, most of which don't revolve around terrorism. What if the daddy is wrong or at least partially wrong? 911 didn't stop terrorism at all.
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Old 27th December 2013, 01:31 PM   #77
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Why do you care David? The hijackers did take the planes and did crash them into buildings. Your assessment of the probability of the events taking place doesn't matter because the events did take place. I understand you have some need for this to be something other than it was but that need is unimportant. Stop trying to manufacture a justification to ignore reality.
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Old 27th December 2013, 01:33 PM   #78
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Originally Posted by Mikeys View Post
Why do people who defend 911 also defend all other hoaxes, most of which don't revolve around terrorism.
No idea. Why do you do it?
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Old 27th December 2013, 01:33 PM   #79
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Originally Posted by Mark F View Post
...OK, unlikely things happened in an unlikely event.....And this proves,...?
That is the core issue of this thread.

And the word "unlikely" is redundant - you could say this:
Originally Posted by Mark F View Post
...OK, things happened in an event.....And this proves,...?
...and the effective meaning is the same.

All the "unlikelies"; "odds"; "probabilities" stuff is d.w's EITHER evasions or confusions.

He won't say what "...this proves".

Until he does the discussion will keep circling.
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Old 27th December 2013, 01:47 PM   #80
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I have thought about your many comments. They have been a big help in seeing that my case was stated ... not so well. Thank you.

Clarification: If a tails-up penny was found in the street and it was determined it came from UA 175, that would mean it was part of that day's event. What is the probability that it landed tails up? One in two. Would I include that in trying to determine how unlikely/improbable it is that the "official story" explains what happened on 9/11? No. Why? It is very plausible.

Probability is for future events. Plausibility is for past events. What is the probability something might occur? What is the plausibility it occurred?

I should have made the statement differently. I should have defined things in terms of what is the probability that a particular implausibility would occur. Sorry.

So, the probability would be based on how implausible was the outcome.

I will see how I can restate more properly my case.

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