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27th December 2013, 02:00 PM | #81 |
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Now you are talking.
The issue is about items of "fact" and whether those items are true fact or false fact....to some standard of roof where "beyond reasonable doubt" is a good choice. 1) WTC Towers were standing on 9/10 >> True of False? 2) Planes hit WTC Twins on 9/11 >> True of False? 3) Planes did damage, fires started, more damage accumulated >> True of False? 4) Twins collapsed on 9/11 >> True of False? 5) Prima facie hypothesis planes plus fire caused collapses >> True of False? 6) Some people have claimed that collapse was helped by CD or OHMI (other malicious human intervention) >> True of False? 7) If someone wants to improve the "planes and fire" hypothesis they are entitled to improve it by suggesting a better hypothesis >> True of False? 8) No one has ever put forward a better hypothesis which included CD or OHMI >> True of False? Ball in your court d.w. Go for it. |
27th December 2013, 02:57 PM | #82 |
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ozeco may (or may not) think he knows what this means, but I don't. Plausibility seems to be some sort of ex ante probability. But introducing the term "plausibility" doesn't seem to get at any of the problems raised in the thread. Arbitrarily many unlikely events occur every day, most of them unnoticed. How would one go about determining whether yesterday's events on the street where you live were "implausibly unlikely"?
I don't mean to short-circuit whatever "restate[ment]" you are undertaking, only to caution against being too encouraged by that hearty "Now you are talking." |
27th December 2013, 03:13 PM | #83 |
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Did you read my post?
If you can find an airliner crash where personal effects of occupants are not found let us know. If you do not recall all the paper blowing about when the planes hit and again when the towers came down I am sure we can find a link to video of it. The odds were pretty good. You want a number? In light of the fact that the passport was found I'll set this in the frame of reference of the time of impact. At that time the odds were, in my inimitable estimation, between 75% and 90%. At that time the odds were not 100% as the path the passport took could not be fully predicted, but neither were they less than 75% since most airliner crashes do turn up most of the occupant's personal effects. |
27th December 2013, 03:16 PM | #84 |
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27th December 2013, 03:17 PM | #85 |
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Because humans are quite well known to have buracracies that are more prone to reaction than prevention.
Mind you it was also a dead certainty that people would die in spaceflight, they have and they will continue to do so. That is a function of the number of things that CAN go wrong enough to kill a person. In the case of terrorism, as the oft repeated saying goes, "We have to get it right all the time, they have to get it right ONCE!" |
27th December 2013, 03:29 PM | #86 |
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The odds of a penny exiting UA175 and landing in the street tails up and you finding it would eb
(odds of penny exiting the aircraft) X (odds of landing tails up) X (odds of you finding it on the street). We know the middle one is 0.5 (50%). The other two are more difficult. For the last factor we need to know how often you walk the streets of Manhattan, how often you walk with your head down, etc. For that first factor we'd have to rely on past history in aircraft crashes and how often coins are found versus an estimate of how many coins could be expected to be in the pockets and purses of the occupants. That way you could determine the estimated percentage of coins that were on the aircraft that were found afterwards. I would not suggest doing this exercise for the WTC though, as the occupants of the building probably had coins with their personal belongings as well. Passports though? Not many building occupants would have theirs with them. Its not something one should, or would be inclined to, keep at the office. |
27th December 2013, 03:50 PM | #87 |
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27th December 2013, 04:14 PM | #88 |
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One should note as well that despite the very very looong odds, people DO win the powerball even when not every combination has been purchased.
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27th December 2013, 04:25 PM | #89 |
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Alrighty then.
Your sole example - the recovered passport - is far from implausible. Finding such items after air crashes is not in fact unusual in any way. Combined with the fact that the recovered passport is of no use as evidence against the alleged hijackers means there is no greater meaning to finding it other than it was found. Someone at some point simply decided to arbitrarily imply greater meaning to it than it deserves and thus it has entered the Truther folklore. What are you trying to imply? Are you trying to say finding the passport was at best highly unlikely? Impossible perhaps? Great. At least that is something we can work with. If so, how does that impact what we know about what happened on 9/11? If it doesn't change anything then why should we care? If it changes something, what does it change, how does it change it and of course, why should we care? I guess what I am getting at is that after 3 pages it is time to get to the point. What exactly are you trying to allege occurred and what is your argument specifically in support of that allegation? If you want to claim the passport was planted then by all means just come out and say it, and support your claim with whatever proof you have to present. Explain to us who planted it, how and most importantly of all WHY? Otherwise lets move on. Personally I'm getting a bit fed up with all these attempts to not get to the point. |
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So I'm going to tell you what the facts are, and the facts are the facts, but then we know the truth. That always overcomes facts. |
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27th December 2013, 04:28 PM | #90 |
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You're not fooling anyone. Well, perhaps not entirely true: I think you're fooling yourself into believing that you have any real argument of merit.
You don't. The big problem with 9/11 Truth claims is that they're not based on facts. Fact: the passport was recovered. Nothing you can do to change that. It offends your sensibilities, but that's life. Get over it. Not Fact: it was 'planted' there by some conspiracy. (If you believe this, then you prefer conjecture to facts.) Fact: 2 jets hit the towers Fact: large fires on many floors continued until the towers collapsed Not Fact: The towers were destroyed by controlled demolition Fact: The steel recovered and inspected showed no signs of controlled demolition Not Fact: There were explosives in the towers Speculation doesn't trump fact Central facts about the flights and collapses cannot be ignored in a serious examination; they cannot be handwaved away. If you do this, you're neither honest nor serious about any of it. |
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Heiwa - 'Anyone suggesting that part C structure can one-way crush down part A structure is complicit to mass murder!' 000063 - 'Problem with the Truthers' theories is that anyone with enough power to pull it off doesn't need to in the first place.' mrkinnies 'I'm not a no-planer' 'I don't believe Flight 77 hit the Pentagon' |
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27th December 2013, 04:31 PM | #91 |
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David's trying to chip away at reality by rhetorical games such that everything becomes equally improbable and equally possible.
Therefore he hopes to elevate the speculation of highly improbable and implausible things to the same level as established facts. The key is to avoid facts, or at least deny as many details of those facts as possible. |
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Heiwa - 'Anyone suggesting that part C structure can one-way crush down part A structure is complicit to mass murder!' 000063 - 'Problem with the Truthers' theories is that anyone with enough power to pull it off doesn't need to in the first place.' mrkinnies 'I'm not a no-planer' 'I don't believe Flight 77 hit the Pentagon' |
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27th December 2013, 04:38 PM | #92 |
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The "only one file cabinet" item came up. I hope the " no toilets were recovered" item does not make an appearance.
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27th December 2013, 04:43 PM | #93 |
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That process is PLAUSIBLE and highly PROBABLE and, after he has done it the probability of what will then be a past event, will be 100%, or, in his own words:
..and my comment refers to the PROCESS of discussion NOT the CONTENT of discussion. A level of abstraction which will PROBABLY confuse him.....and a few others. What are the ODDS??
If he was serious he could list the facts that he claims support CD THEN we can work through the list with him and show why all the "old ones" are false AND - if he has any - decide whether his "new ones" are true. So far I don't recall seeing any "new ones". |
27th December 2013, 04:44 PM | #94 |
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Oh, I see. " You guys accept that it was improbable for a few passports to be found, but turn around and declare it improbable that explosives were loaded into the buildings in such a fashion as to avoid detection, survive aircraft impact, survive fire and be used to collapse the buildings".
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27th December 2013, 04:48 PM | #95 |
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The whole "probability" or "odds" topic is an evasion.
What happened on 9/11 is a matter of accumulated facts. He has yet to identify one item of fact and show how it outweighs as evidence the countervailing facts. Here is a starting list for you to prove wrong David:
Quote:
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27th December 2013, 04:51 PM | #96 |
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Heiwa - 'Anyone suggesting that part C structure can one-way crush down part A structure is complicit to mass murder!' 000063 - 'Problem with the Truthers' theories is that anyone with enough power to pull it off doesn't need to in the first place.' mrkinnies 'I'm not a no-planer' 'I don't believe Flight 77 hit the Pentagon' |
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27th December 2013, 04:54 PM | #97 |
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27th December 2013, 05:04 PM | #98 |
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Sorry. Had to leave and took longer than I thought plus had to crash for a bit on the couch.
I am going to take a time out. I may have a different way to go about this that may address things you have said. Let me read the comments I have not seen yet and think about my different possible approach. It is basically not very much different but in a significantly different context. You have made some very good points. Again, I am now in a time out. Plan to let you know how long it might be when I get an idea. |
27th December 2013, 05:08 PM | #99 |
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There is no escape from truth.
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27th December 2013, 05:27 PM | #100 |
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Heiwa - 'Anyone suggesting that part C structure can one-way crush down part A structure is complicit to mass murder!' 000063 - 'Problem with the Truthers' theories is that anyone with enough power to pull it off doesn't need to in the first place.' mrkinnies 'I'm not a no-planer' 'I don't believe Flight 77 hit the Pentagon' |
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27th December 2013, 05:39 PM | #101 |
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There is no escape from truth.
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27th December 2013, 05:41 PM | #102 |
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Heiwa - 'Anyone suggesting that part C structure can one-way crush down part A structure is complicit to mass murder!' 000063 - 'Problem with the Truthers' theories is that anyone with enough power to pull it off doesn't need to in the first place.' mrkinnies 'I'm not a no-planer' 'I don't believe Flight 77 hit the Pentagon' |
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27th December 2013, 06:13 PM | #103 |
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From page 542 of the 9/11 Commission Report:
"106. Only the passports of Satam al Suqami and Abdul Aziz al Omari were recovered after 9/11." That bit could just be referring to AA11. Nonetheless, david.watts, your estimated probability of a passport being found has just increased by 200% to 400%. |
27th December 2013, 06:34 PM | #104 |
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There is no escape from truth.
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27th December 2013, 06:45 PM | #105 |
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From PENTTBOM:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PENTTBO...orts_recovered According to testimony by Susan Ginsberg, a staff member of the National Commission on Terrorist attacks upon the United States, in the January 26, 2004 Public Hearing: "Four of the hijackers' passports have survived in whole or in part. Two were recovered from the crash site of United Airlines flight 93 in Pennsylvania. These are the passports of Ziad Jarrah and Saeed al Ghamdi. One belonged to a hijacker on American Airlines flight 11. This is the passport of Satam al Suqami. A passerby picked it up and gave it to a NYPD detective shortly before the World Trade Center towers collapsed. A fourth passport was recovered from luggage that did not make it from a Portland flight to Boston on to the connecting flight which was American Airlines flight 11. This is the passport of Abdul Aziz al Omari." "In addition to these four, some digital copies of the hijackers passports were recovered in post-9/11 operations. Two of the passports that have survived, those of Satam al Suqami and Abdul Aziz al Omari, were clearly doctored. To avoid getting into classified detail, we will just state that these were manipulated in a fraudulent manner in ways that have been associated with al Qaeda." |
27th December 2013, 06:51 PM | #106 |
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..I noticed in the courtyard that there were valises, suitcases, strewn about the courtyard. There were wallets everywhere, broken glass, and then I noticed that there were airplane tickets." FDNY firefighter John Moribito
I don't know what was done with all that stuff. But it was reported. Never found this stuff very interesting to ponder but it sure sounds like lots of personal belongings from passengers. What else were you expecting? |
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Heiwa - 'Anyone suggesting that part C structure can one-way crush down part A structure is complicit to mass murder!' 000063 - 'Problem with the Truthers' theories is that anyone with enough power to pull it off doesn't need to in the first place.' mrkinnies 'I'm not a no-planer' 'I don't believe Flight 77 hit the Pentagon' |
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27th December 2013, 06:55 PM | #107 |
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So I've started a blog about my writing. Check it out at: http://fourth-planet-problem.blogspot.com/ And my first book is on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B077W322FX |
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27th December 2013, 07:44 PM | #108 |
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Hand wave noted.
Post facto, one can find a myriad of improbable coincidences in every single event. As mentioned earlier, people win the lottery with worse odds. Picking a winning lottery number AFTER the drawing isn't that difficult. Likewise, connecting random dots AFTER an incident isn't more than an exercise in pareidolia.
Quote:
Quote:
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Mister Earl: "The plural of bollocks is not evidence." |
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27th December 2013, 08:06 PM | #109 |
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27th December 2013, 08:15 PM | #110 |
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What are the odds in a poker game of one player getting a full house, aces high, but another player getting a straight flush (king high)? It's happened. I know, because I've seen it myself. Even odder, the player with the straight flush was having a "hot" night, while the loser with the full house was having a really bad night.
I've even seen a player go a long session of poker without winning a single hand. What are the odds? Both of these were in low-stakes poker amongst friends. |
27th December 2013, 08:33 PM | #111 | |||
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You're trying to cloak the "first time in history" fallacy. The question is less "is it likely" than "did it happen". It's also ironic, since Truthers have yet to come up with a theory that is even physically possible. Look, they clearly took the effects from the people on the planes, flew them to New York, planted them in the impact zone of the towers, and blew them out with air cannons when the planes hit. Simples. Those are exactly the same odds for getting 50 T/50 H in that order, or 99T/1H, und so weiter. (Actually, the average quarter is slightly weighted.) Sometimes multiple people pick the same lottery number. Trying to talk their way around explaining how the explosives could be protected and not be even more conspicuous and harder to install, seems to be the idea. Apophenia, in this case. |
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27th December 2013, 08:43 PM | #112 |
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What a load of nonsense. You make up lies about 911, and the passports being found is one you imply they were planted. Which is a big lie.
Quote:
No, this was not central to identifying who hijacked the planes, the FBI found that 19 were responsible by conducting the biggest investigation in history, one you deny happened because you hate the USA, and can't do research. You make fun of thousands murdered on 911 by spreading nonsense. What will you do when you find out other passenger items were found, and other hijacker stuff was not found. Your claims are based on lies, faulty logic, ignorance, and no applicable experience. You say you are a pilot, and have no idea what is typically found in aircraft accidents. |
27th December 2013, 08:45 PM | #113 |
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In addition to my above posts, there's this from the Moussaoui trial evidence:
Page 37 and part of U.S. Visa page from Ziad Jarrah's Passport recovered at the United Airlines Flight 93 crash site http://www.vaed.uscourts.gov/notable...A00105-08.html What evidence do you have that the PENTTBOM statement I posted is a lie? Do you have memos, or photographs relating to people "planting" the recovered passports? |
27th December 2013, 08:45 PM | #114 |
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David, I notice that over the five years you've been a member, most of your posts have come in the last few months, and they're all regarding 9/11. I surmise that something must have "lit a fire" with you. If so, would you care to share it?
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27th December 2013, 08:49 PM | #115 |
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Oops, and also from the Moussaoui evidence:
http://www.vaed.uscourts.gov/notable...n/PA00108.html Kingdom of Saudi Arabia passport for Saeed A A A Al Ghamdi recovered from the United Airlines Flight 93 crash site You can see for yourself. HiRes images available on the linked pages. |
27th December 2013, 09:08 PM | #116 |
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27th December 2013, 09:14 PM | #117 |
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27th December 2013, 09:22 PM | #118 |
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27th December 2013, 10:15 PM | #119 |
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27th December 2013, 10:18 PM | #120 |
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