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Old 14th June 2013, 10:46 AM   #1401
carlitos
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
A lot of statistical theory is counterintuitive. Apparently Robin's intuition is the single exception, being a more reliable guide to reality than the proven findings of a whole field of mathematics.
But but but ... Deaths always come in threes. The shooter always rolls a seven after the dice go off the table. The dealer always wins after the player on third base refuses a hit on 15 or 16. Etc.

Robin1, this is a pretty simple explanation of the Monty Hall problem and other counter intuitive statistics. If you would like to learn about this stuff, give it a read. Your common sense, like mine, sucks at statistics. Statistics require math, not intuition.

http://sciguy.hubpages.com/hub/Count...ive-Statistics
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Old 14th June 2013, 11:03 AM   #1402
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Originally Posted by Slowvehicle View Post
You assume too much.

Before you spin fantasies about how the "soul" "leaves the body", it would behoove you to address the composition of the "soul"--that undetectable, mass-less, energy-less, characteristic-less idea composed of no known form of, or combination of forms of, matter or energy.

You might even want to address your evidence for your claim that the "soul" actually exists, given the problems above.

That really ought to happen before you start SWAG-ing about how the "soul" leaves the body, or why JE's contacts with the "souls" of the "departed" look and act so much like cold reading.
I think I can help with this soul business: documentary and pictorial evidence* indicates that the disembodied soul is naked and in the form of a child. In the case of a soon-to-be-damned soul, it may also be as green as something in the onion family, such as a chive or a leak. It is also able to hurl invective at its dead body. In some instances, the body is able to provide a surprisingly spirited response. And it must be true, because these encounters have been witnessed by men of unimpeachable holiness.

*From medieval literature and art.
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Old 14th June 2013, 04:29 PM   #1403
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Originally Posted by Garrette View Post
Robin's entire argument boils down to her belief that she, and she alone, cannot be fooled.
Spot on! But doesn't this apply to every closed-minded paranormal believer?
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Old 15th June 2013, 12:26 AM   #1404
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Mod WarningOff-topic posts on life after death moved to AAH.

Robin1, in particular, do not attempt to bypass the moderated thread on that topic by derailing this or any other thread.

Please remember to stay on topic, address the argument not the arguer, and be civil and polite.

Thank you.
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Old 15th June 2013, 12:43 AM   #1405
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Originally Posted by ynot View Post
Spot on! But doesn't this apply to every closed-minded paranormal believer?
Pretty much. The common factor seems to be that they will admit of only two possibilities for whatever anecdote they are describing:

1. they are describing it accurately and their interpretation is therefore correct, or

2. they are making it up, either deliberately or because they're deluded

They know it's not the second one, therefore it must be the first one. Anyone who questions the first possibility is automatically saying the second one is true.

The most likely explanation - that they are misremembering and/or misinterpreting what they experienced because of the well known and well understood cognitive biases and fallible preceptions which we all have - they won't even consider as a possibility, for reasons which I have never understood.
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Old 15th June 2013, 05:00 AM   #1406
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Originally Posted by Robin1 View Post
The issue of John Edward sometimes appearing like he is cold reading has been brought up many times here as well as in the thread "Proof of Life After Death!!"
I recently posted my thoughts on this on the other thread and think it is important and relevant to share them here.
...It's all in the interpretation and the process of trying to decipher the message which is not being delivered crystal clearly....and yes, I can see how sometimes that would look like cold reading.

And that is why I have said, on more than one occasion, that if JE did not come up with those startlingly specific, personal, unusual, unknowable hits...directed at specific people NOT the entire room...then I too would believe he was cold reading and a fraud.

But, he does come up with them...REPEATEDLY.

And he did it for me.

And my brother.

P.S. I do also believe that some connections to spirits may be more clear than others. I'm not sure if JE has addressed that in detail but I will look.

Hi, Robin1.
We've seen a number of unspliced videos of JE's performances and it's really quite clear from reading the many anecdotes posted up that the perception of the public and the reality of the event are at odds.
Why should anyone believe your anecdotes reflect what actually happened during the JE performance?

Did you watch the video posted by Nay_Sayer?

Originally Posted by Nay_Sayer View Post
Not only that, But a video of a call in show he did which he did not have control over the editing of, was on youtube, has now been taken down by J.E Media.

It is no coincidence that it exposed very brightly how broad and vague his "hits are"

This video however: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qx0Jt2jnLOQ shows a rather embarrassing performance by John.
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Old 15th June 2013, 10:44 AM   #1407
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Originally Posted by pakeha View Post
Hi, Robin1.
We've seen a number of unspliced videos of JE's performances and it's really quite clear from reading the many anecdotes posted up that the perception of the public and the reality of the event are at odds.
Why should anyone believe your anecdotes reflect what actually happened during the JE performance?

Did you watch the video posted by Nay_Sayer?

John: 'I'm getting a younger man; Son,Nephew,Grandson: Cancer Connection'

Right off the bat the "Specific" John Edward throws out something that can almost literally apply to any male member of someone family.

'John: Robert, Robbie, Rob; Who has the R name?'


Robert has been in the top 100 names for male babies for the last 13 years, and to add extra insurance the "Specific" John just throws out a letter which covers a near uncountable amount of names.
[source: http://www.ssa.gov/cgi-bin/babyname.cgi]


John then asks "Cancer?" he gets a no then asks who has a bone issue to which the lady points to her husband and says his mother. That is about a bad of a miss as you can get.

John: "She's making me feel like she passed on or around a government holiday"

The lady gives john the hit by saying her father passed on September 11th, So another miss for john as he was clearly referring to the husbands mother and then jumped gears after the woman gave him the info he needed.

"John: :Is his mother still here?"

He only finished this "specific" train of thought after hearing that the fathers mother is still alive.

John: "He did something different then he normally did"

another vague line thrown out by the "specific" John Edward, what follows is the woman giving him all the info he could ever need.

John: "Do you have 2 sons?

The 2nd woman responds yes [Don't get too excited] as moments later she clarifies she has 3 sons and one died, to which John asks "So one of them died?" HOW COULD HE HAVE KNOW SUCH A THING?!!!

John: "Was he killed?

Bzzz an immediate no from the woman, John then tries to justify it with "Swift and fast" but still isn't getting the hit he hoped to.

That ends the clip.

Will Robin take any time to really look at this or the video? No, But I'm gearing my posts towards any lurkers or people actually interested in the truth.
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Old 15th June 2013, 11:17 AM   #1408
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Originally Posted by Nay_Sayer View Post
Will Robin take any time to really look at this or the video?

May be she will use it to pass the time during the next couple of weeks.
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Old 15th June 2013, 05:20 PM   #1409
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Originally Posted by jsfisher View Post
May be she will use it to pass the time during the next couple of weeks.
Has she been given some naughty time out again?
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Old 15th June 2013, 05:24 PM   #1410
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Originally Posted by ynot View Post
Has she been given some naughty time out again?

I'm getting an L sound...maybe someone over here....Lo....La...Lashl perhaps: http://forums.randi.org/showthread.p...87#post9295787
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Old 15th June 2013, 08:12 PM   #1411
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Totally OT but the other week ago when I went to the ER, the nurse there sat with me a while. She showed me pictures of her sons and her home in Jamaica and talked about how she lived on a farm there and everything was so fresh. You could pluck the fruit off the trees and drink the milk straight from the cow. It made me think of Robin. But hey, that gave me a smile didn't it?
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Old 16th June 2013, 06:49 AM   #1412
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Originally Posted by ynot View Post
Has she been given some naughty time out again?
She's actually listed as "Guest" now, so I guess she had her account deleted.
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Old 16th June 2013, 05:57 PM   #1413
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Robin1 didn’t provide proof of life after death regardless of how much she claimed she did.

“We” provided proof of JE not being a genuine psychic regardless of how much she claimed we didn’t.

Next . .
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Old 16th June 2013, 07:36 PM   #1414
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Originally Posted by ynot View Post
Robin1 didn’t provide proof of life after death regardless of how much she claimed she did.

“We” provided proof of JE not being a genuine psychic regardless of how much she claimed we didn’t.

Next . .
It was apparent very early on her goal wasn't about finding out how john does his act, In fact, I'm almost certain she fully knew, It was more to get people to go see his shows "Find the truth go see him live"(sic).
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Old 16th June 2013, 08:25 PM   #1415
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Originally Posted by Nay_Sayer View Post
It was apparent very early on her goal wasn't about finding out how john does his act, In fact, I'm almost certain she fully knew, It was more to get people to go see his shows "Find the truth go see him live"(sic).
In the beginning I thought she was a shill. But I really think now that it was just her personality.
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Old 17th June 2013, 07:57 AM   #1416
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Originally Posted by Nay_Sayer View Post
It was apparent very early on her goal wasn't about finding out how john does his act, In fact, I'm almost certain she fully knew, It was more to get people to go see his shows "Find the truth go see him live"(sic).
I agree with TrueThat. I think she bears all the marks of a True Believer. They're sometimes very hard to tell from shills because, well, they truly believe. They think that everyone should have the wondrous cathartic experience that they've had and keep prompting people to just "see for yourself". Her faith in John Edward seems legitimate. Wrong, but sincere.
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Old 17th June 2013, 08:44 AM   #1417
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I never saw Robin1 as anything except a True Believer, one who was easily frustrated by the inability of most of us recognize the (to her) totally obvious fact that JE really does communicate with the dead.

How, after all, could it be otherwise? As Garrette wrote upthread, "As I have said repeatedly, and I mean it seriously and exactly as I say it, Robin's entire argument boils down to her belief that she, and she alone, cannot be fooled."*

I felt a great deal of sympathy for her; she was trying her best to show us the truth and we -- dolts that we are -- couldn't see it, or wouldn't see it. We kept harping on such irrelevant, tedious, pathetic ideas like controlled experiments, analysis of unedited video recordings, cold and hot reading, lots of guessing by JE and confirmation bias on the part of his fans.

(Robin1, if you are reading this, please, please, pretty please with sugar on top (remember?) read again the suggestions made in this thread by Pixel42, Garrette, and others with expertise and experience in statistics, magic, mentalism, and the like. Then try to see how they do apply in this case.)

I think that if Robin1 retains her belief in JE's powers and her belief in spirits of the dead, she will raise her children, hold down a job, pay her taxes, and in general function well as a member of society. Unfortunately, in the library, she will probably steer people to books by "psychics" when they really need books by people like Michael Shermer.

xterra


*As an aside, Robin apparently believes that being a librarian makes one an expert in areas other than librarianship. I don't know from whence this attitude arises, but it is dangerous. See my response to a claim of expertise, also about communicating with the dead: http://forums.randi.org/showthread.p...95#post8832495
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