|
Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today. |
5th December 2012, 05:03 AM | #481 |
A rigidly defined area of doubt and uncertainty
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 601
|
Not again…
I am fed up with this tactic of quoting a dictionary definition and then deriving a dogmatic argument from it. Years ago, had you asked me, I would have held up the OED definition of a word as being correct, but I have now seen just how wrong one can be if you accept such a definition without any exterior knowledge of the subject and no intention of admitting your ignorance. A dictionary does NOT define the only and correct use of language, it reflects the proper use of words. If the proper use of words and the dictionary disagree, it’s the dictionary that’s wrong! As for science; both my wife and I were educated as scientists (applied and pure physics, respectively). My first job was as a metrologist – about the purest form of science you can get – the practice of measuring things. After that, I went to work in the RF plant of a particle accelerator – about the most mechanical end of the spectrum I can think of. I work every day with mechanics, engineers and pure scientists. I have a VERY good idea of what the scientific method entails and how to apply it, but I would not claim any more to be a “professional scientist”…so do I have any authority to speak on the subject or not? I’m sure you have a view… A “professional scientist” is merely someone who makes his or her living from the application of the scientific method. Everybody applies the scientific method to most of their lives most of the time. If you have something real to say or a point to make then go ahead, but all you’re doing right now is demonstrating how very far you are from having the slightest idea about how the scientific community works. |
5th December 2012, 05:51 AM | #482 |
Membership Drive
Co-Ordinator, Russell's Antinomy Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: ...1888 miles from home by the shortest route without tolls...
Posts: 17,348
|
Consider providing support for this speculation, or learn the useful phrase, "In my opinion, for which I can offer no actual support..."
. He also never said he was not the lost Dauphin. Your point? I challenge you to find a single instance of Dr. Sagan going into "great details about UFOs" except for the express purpose of debunking the credulous craze of UFO sightings. comparing them to other credulous superstitions. Were you aware, for instance, that some people who mock Dr. Sagan for being "obsessed" with "aliens", and for believing in aliens, credulously accept tabloid rags as evidence, and believe that ancient mesoamerican civilizations actually did have contact with "aliens" in "UFOs"? SO many people make so many unsupported silly claims that the work or spreading reason and teaching skeptical thinking skills is never-ending. We are, as I used to tell school boards, never more than one generation away from barbarism. Dealing with the superstitious and the credulous on a daily basis, some say we are already there. |
__________________
"They want to make their molehills equal to the mountains by cutting the mountains down." -turingtest "The universe did not come from nothing, it came from 'We don't know'." -Dancing David "Cry, booga, booga, booga! and let slip the Hamsters of Silly!" -JFDHintze |
|
5th December 2012, 06:00 AM | #483 |
Membership Drive
Co-Ordinator, Russell's Antinomy Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: ...1888 miles from home by the shortest route without tolls...
Posts: 17,348
|
|
__________________
"They want to make their molehills equal to the mountains by cutting the mountains down." -turingtest "The universe did not come from nothing, it came from 'We don't know'." -Dancing David "Cry, booga, booga, booga! and let slip the Hamsters of Silly!" -JFDHintze |
|
5th December 2012, 06:07 AM | #484 |
Membership Drive
Co-Ordinator, Russell's Antinomy Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: ...1888 miles from home by the shortest route without tolls...
Posts: 17,348
|
Is it possible,in your opinion, to use a scientific method without "mathematical modeling"?
In your opinion, is there more than one "scientific method"? Who, in your opinion, developed "scientific methodology"? Where, in your opinion, does the polymath fit in? What do you suppose the world claim to exist would be like,. if "scientific methodology" were limited to "scientists", and everyone else had to depend upon divine revelation or blind luck? |
__________________
"They want to make their molehills equal to the mountains by cutting the mountains down." -turingtest "The universe did not come from nothing, it came from 'We don't know'." -Dancing David "Cry, booga, booga, booga! and let slip the Hamsters of Silly!" -JFDHintze |
|
5th December 2012, 06:09 AM | #485 |
Ardent Formulist
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 15,334
|
|
__________________
To understand recursion, you must first understand recursion. Woo's razor: Never attribute to stupidity that which can be adequately explained by aliens. |
|
5th December 2012, 06:36 AM | #486 |
Muse
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 734
|
|
5th December 2012, 06:52 AM | #487 |
Banned
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 1,260
|
|
5th December 2012, 06:58 AM | #488 |
Graduate Poster
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: UK (south Bucks) Occasionally France (the Vendee)
Posts: 1,053
|
|
5th December 2012, 07:09 AM | #489 |
Great Dalmuti
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 8,266
|
|
__________________
"If it's real, then it gets more interesting the closer you examine it. If it's not real, just the opposite is true." - aggle-rithm |
|
5th December 2012, 07:10 AM | #490 |
Great Dalmuti
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 8,266
|
|
__________________
"If it's real, then it gets more interesting the closer you examine it. If it's not real, just the opposite is true." - aggle-rithm |
|
5th December 2012, 07:15 AM | #491 |
Banned
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 1,260
|
I understand the frustrations you guys are going through. I too am disappointed he was so wrong and no ETI were found. But we should not be apologizing for him. He made a lot of money by getting in on a hot idea and marketing it.
When his search was turning futile he even began to interview alien abductees to keep the interest alive and stay in the public eye. But he was careful to discredit them so his funding would not be affected. There is only so much the public will take after years of watching a blank screen on a monitor supposed to contact ETI with radio signals and hope they signal back. Not a blimp on the screen for 50 years. He said many things in his lifetime. But is known mainly for his "billions and billions" and SETI. and his serious fascination with aliens. I used to watch Cosmos but stopped when he started talking about Extraterrestrial intelligent. It was bad enough we have UFO whack whacks but to have to listen to his nonsense was a bit much. Maybe I missed something. But it sure wasn't ETI. |
5th December 2012, 07:17 AM | #492 |
Dental Floss Tycoon
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 21,371
|
Could you cite the passage in question?
If UFO believers (you're one, aren't you?) couldn't understand why he would conclude that there is no evidence of alien visitation, yet still consider the possibility that life has evolved on other worlds, then the failure is theirs.
Quote:
Quote:
I have read his biographies. Even better, I've read his own words. Your inability to understand his positions would seem to derive from a deficiency in reading comprehension. |
__________________
Counterbalance in the little town of Ridgeview, Ohio. Two people permanently enslaved by the tyranny of fear and superstitution, facing the future with a kind of helpless dread. Two others facing the future with confidence - having escaped one of the darker places of the Twilight Zone. |
|
5th December 2012, 07:20 AM | #493 |
Banned
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 1,260
|
Last time I checked. There are several theories on how intergalactic travel can be possible. But I did say NASA does not have that capability yet. I am the eternal optimist. I am confident it will be possible in the future maybe distant future or very distant future. This is not something that can be rushed.
|
5th December 2012, 07:30 AM | #494 |
Time Person of the Year, 2006
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Right here!
Posts: 19,246
|
|
__________________
I've always believed that cluelessness evolved as an adaptation to allow the truly appalling to live with themselves. - G. B. Trudeau A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it. - Kay, Men in Black. Enjoy every sandwich. - Warren Zevon |
|
5th December 2012, 07:34 AM | #495 |
Great Dalmuti
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 8,266
|
|
__________________
"If it's real, then it gets more interesting the closer you examine it. If it's not real, just the opposite is true." - aggle-rithm |
|
5th December 2012, 07:34 AM | #496 |
Membership Drive
Co-Ordinator, Russell's Antinomy Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: ...1888 miles from home by the shortest route without tolls...
Posts: 17,348
|
I know better than this...
<snip> do you realize that a "solar sail" only works near a "solar source" i.e. a "sun"? It is possible, of course, to boost power to a "solar sail" with a ground-based laser (see, e.g., The Mote in God's Eye by Niven/Pournelle), but radiant power (sun or laser) decreases by the inverse cube of the distance from the source. My ninth graders could figure out that a "solar sail" could not accelerate in interstellar space, much less intergalactic space. And, of course, you fail to explain how one could get "closer to the destination" (is that where your "launching pads based on distant planets" idea comes from? Did you read your link; what it says about "launching" solar-sail-powered craft?) And you may not have figured this out, yet, but a "solar sail" is not a "rocket". Did you ever provide a source for your claim about the "next generation" of "long distance (sic) rockets"? |
__________________
"They want to make their molehills equal to the mountains by cutting the mountains down." -turingtest "The universe did not come from nothing, it came from 'We don't know'." -Dancing David "Cry, booga, booga, booga! and let slip the Hamsters of Silly!" -JFDHintze |
|
5th December 2012, 07:41 AM | #497 |
Safely Ignored
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 16,392
|
I was just idly considering the prospects of manned interstellar flight using solar sails.
I wonder how large and heavy a craft would need to be to sustain a human population (you couldn't really call it a crew) for thousands of years. It would have to contain a self-sustaining biosphere and energy source (nuclear presumably). Then you need a sail. A really big one. You only get an accelerative force of 9N per square km of sail on departure, and by the time you pass Mars that's fallen to about 3N. By the time you pass Jupiter it's fallen to 0.3N. Instead of working out how long it takes to coast to the next star at it's cruising speed, I'm wondering how long this craft would take just to get out of the car park. |
5th December 2012, 07:42 AM | #498 |
Membership Drive
Co-Ordinator, Russell's Antinomy Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: ...1888 miles from home by the shortest route without tolls...
Posts: 17,348
|
I know better than this...
<snip> you did not claim that "intergalactic travel" could be possible. Many of us here have understood, and hoped for, that, for years. The claim you made was that plans for the next generation of long distance rockets, capable of intergalactic travel, exist. When asked to provide evidence, you put up a link to a sensationalist article about the possibility of "solar sails". Par for your course... |
__________________
"They want to make their molehills equal to the mountains by cutting the mountains down." -turingtest "The universe did not come from nothing, it came from 'We don't know'." -Dancing David "Cry, booga, booga, booga! and let slip the Hamsters of Silly!" -JFDHintze |
|
5th December 2012, 07:43 AM | #499 |
Dental Floss Tycoon
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 21,371
|
You seem to have a child's concept of the universe and the scientific method. You claim to have an interest in science, yet nothing you've said so far supports this claim. Do you understand how big just the Milky Way galaxy is? We've barely begun to search. It's like we're searching a football field for a lost wedding ring of great value, and we've only searched a few square yards so far.
Quote:
Quote:
By the way, even when SETI (actually HRMS) was publicly funded, the cost amounted to about 5¢ per taxpayer per year. But since 1993 it has been privately funded. So what are you complaining about?
Quote:
Quote:
Please don't get banned too soon. You're very entertaining.
Quote:
|
__________________
Counterbalance in the little town of Ridgeview, Ohio. Two people permanently enslaved by the tyranny of fear and superstitution, facing the future with a kind of helpless dread. Two others facing the future with confidence - having escaped one of the darker places of the Twilight Zone. |
|
5th December 2012, 07:45 AM | #500 |
Membership Drive
Co-Ordinator, Russell's Antinomy Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: ...1888 miles from home by the shortest route without tolls...
Posts: 17,348
|
|
__________________
"They want to make their molehills equal to the mountains by cutting the mountains down." -turingtest "The universe did not come from nothing, it came from 'We don't know'." -Dancing David "Cry, booga, booga, booga! and let slip the Hamsters of Silly!" -JFDHintze |
|
5th December 2012, 07:55 AM | #501 |
Muse
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 623
|
Justintime, did you actually post a link to the Weekly World News with a straight face?
Some of the headlines recently on their site, for those who might be unfamiliar with that esteemed publication: "Mitt Romney Wins Powerball Lottery" (they also report in separate articles that Romney was made Secretary of the Treasury and "President of Disneyland," whatever that is) "Obama on New Dollar Bill" "Vampires on the Loose in Chicago" "Bigfoot has Three Wives" |
5th December 2012, 07:56 AM | #502 |
Banned
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 1,260
|
I just said in my earlier post I stopped listening to Carl Sagan after he started talking about Extraterrestrial Intelligence. It is bad enough we have UFO whack whacks. That should have suggested to you I am not a UFO believer.
As for his contradictory positions on UFOs and aliens.
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
|
5th December 2012, 08:03 AM | #503 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 5,141
|
Sagan never turned agaisnt them hewas never with them.
Also there is key word in one of those paragrpahs "MIGHT" |
5th December 2012, 08:05 AM | #504 |
Banned
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 1,260
|
Yes I did say NASA did not have that capability, yet. I also said I was ahead of the times even NASA. Now that is not something to scoff at. It is obvious NASA has to catchup with my futuristic vision of intergalactic travel.
Where Carl Sagan failed my ideas will succeed. If aliens won't come to us, we will go to them. |
5th December 2012, 08:06 AM | #505 |
Membership Drive
Co-Ordinator, Russell's Antinomy Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: ...1888 miles from home by the shortest route without tolls...
Posts: 17,348
|
|
__________________
"They want to make their molehills equal to the mountains by cutting the mountains down." -turingtest "The universe did not come from nothing, it came from 'We don't know'." -Dancing David "Cry, booga, booga, booga! and let slip the Hamsters of Silly!" -JFDHintze |
|
5th December 2012, 08:11 AM | #506 |
Banned
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 1,260
|
|
5th December 2012, 08:13 AM | #507 |
Safely Ignored
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 16,392
|
|
5th December 2012, 08:14 AM | #508 |
Membership Drive
Co-Ordinator, Russell's Antinomy Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: ...1888 miles from home by the shortest route without tolls...
Posts: 17,348
|
I know better than this--
<snip> what you originally said was: ...and... Pressed for support, or corroboration, you provided a link to a sensationalist article about the theoretical possibility of solar-sail-powered interstellar flight. Do you ever intend to provide the source of your claim about the "next generation" of "long range (sic) rockets"? This tendency of yours is why it is important for you to provide sources for your quotes. |
__________________
"They want to make their molehills equal to the mountains by cutting the mountains down." -turingtest "The universe did not come from nothing, it came from 'We don't know'." -Dancing David "Cry, booga, booga, booga! and let slip the Hamsters of Silly!" -JFDHintze |
|
5th December 2012, 08:14 AM | #509 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 5,141
|
MR Intime you are barking up the wrong tree completely about Carl Sagan,
read Cosmos and The Demon Haunted World cover to cover then come to a conclusion. |
5th December 2012, 08:15 AM | #510 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 5,141
|
Might want to look at the current state of Ion drives too
http://orbitalvector.com/Deep%20Spac...n%20Drives.htm http://www.esa.int/esaSC/SEM3JQXO4HD_exploring_0.html http://nmp.jpl.nasa.gov/ds1/ |
5th December 2012, 08:20 AM | #511 |
Banned
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 1,260
|
Slowvehicle is a couple of years behind which is just the opposite of me. I am so far ahead.
Check it out. Japan launches Venus probe and solar sail http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37264753.../#.UL9le3cfq_1 |
5th December 2012, 08:24 AM | #512 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 5,141
|
|
5th December 2012, 08:25 AM | #513 |
Membership Drive
Co-Ordinator, Russell's Antinomy Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: ...1888 miles from home by the shortest route without tolls...
Posts: 17,348
|
|
__________________
"They want to make their molehills equal to the mountains by cutting the mountains down." -turingtest "The universe did not come from nothing, it came from 'We don't know'." -Dancing David "Cry, booga, booga, booga! and let slip the Hamsters of Silly!" -JFDHintze |
|
5th December 2012, 08:27 AM | #514 |
Safely Ignored
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 16,392
|
Volunteers wanted: You and all your descendants for the next hundred generations wanted urgently to sign up for a space mission. You get to spend the rest of your life in a spaceship. That's about it. Please note you are signing up on behalf of all future children and grandchildren etc too. Same deal for them. Your great100 grandchild might get to meet an alien. Maybe.
|
5th December 2012, 08:29 AM | #515 |
Philosopher
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 5,141
|
This was a good read too
http://www.skeptic.com/magazine/archives/vol04n04.html Skeptisc Magazines tribute to Carl Sagan http://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/sagan-leaves-us/ In Memory of Carl Sagan 1934–1996: Carl Leaves Us by James Randi My heroes are few. Martin Gardner, Dick Feynman, Isaac Asimov, Carl Sagan. With all that brilliance, my starry zodiac was more than adequate. Dick, Isaac, and now Carl are gone. I’m glad that I last saw him in person in Seattle, looking well, and to all appearances recovering from his ailment. We sat and spoke for a long time. The last time. Up until the end, he was confident, cheery, optimistic. Despite the ravages of his illness and the obvious, visible effects of the therapy he was undergoing, he made every public appearance he could in his last weeks. He was brave in the face of his demise, and went like the warrior he was. |
5th December 2012, 08:31 AM | #516 |
Membership Drive
Co-Ordinator, Russell's Antinomy Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: ...1888 miles from home by the shortest route without tolls...
Posts: 17,348
|
t is probable, given your demonstrated degree of science literacy, that you do not realize your link talks about an interplanetary solar sail, not an intergalactic "next-generation rocket".
But don't worry-you can, in fact, catch up, if you try hard enough. I believe nearly anyone is teachable. |
__________________
"They want to make their molehills equal to the mountains by cutting the mountains down." -turingtest "The universe did not come from nothing, it came from 'We don't know'." -Dancing David "Cry, booga, booga, booga! and let slip the Hamsters of Silly!" -JFDHintze |
|
5th December 2012, 08:32 AM | #517 |
Safely Ignored
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 16,392
|
Intergalactic, planetary, planetary, intergalactic.
All much the same thing, isn't it? |
5th December 2012, 08:35 AM | #518 |
Master Poster
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 2,192
|
So I gave you an example of scepticism that was outside of your narrow definition and you respond by whiffling?
Can you understand why these statements are wrong in exactly the same way your statement is wrong? Christians are stupid. Arabs are fundamentalists. Women are bad drivers. |
5th December 2012, 08:36 AM | #519 |
Banned
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 1,260
|
I haven't been long enough on this site to grade it. But I can say Skeptics appear to like what I am saying because they are responding to my posts with feverish enthusiasm even when they disagree with me. Maybe it is because I think out of the box and Skeptics are craving for some original ideas.
I don't believe in UFOs and I don't believe in Carl Sagan or his ETI. There are better ways to spend research grants and better research projects than looking of smarter people millions of miles away. It is only insecure people that look for intelligence in other beings. And it is strange, that is how I described skeptics. |
5th December 2012, 08:39 AM | #520 |
Dental Floss Tycoon
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 21,371
|
Then what was that stuff about the Mayans?
Again, I have to ask: What is it about the concept of concluding that extraterrestrial life might exist elsewhere, but that there is no evidence that it is traveling here to visit us, that eludes you? It's like you are saying "If you believe that giant squid exist in the deep ocean, then you have to believe that they live between your front door and your mailbox". I'm afraid that the only two possibilities that I can see are that you are being deliberately obtuse, or that this very simple concept is genuinely beyond your intellect. Which is it?
Quote:
If I'm a juror who votes "not guilty" because I haven't seen evidence to prove the guilt of the defendant, and a friend later asks me if I think that the defendant was innocent and I say "I don't know. It's possible that he committed the crime", it is not a contradiction. You seem to think that one either has to say "I'm certain that UFOs are alien craft" or "I'm certain the UFOs are not alien craft", that these are the only two legitimate positions. This is binary thinking. It's a false dichotomy. Saying, "Based on the available evidence, I feel that UFOs are very unlikely to be alien craft", is actually the most logically justifiable position to take. |
__________________
Counterbalance in the little town of Ridgeview, Ohio. Two people permanently enslaved by the tyranny of fear and superstitution, facing the future with a kind of helpless dread. Two others facing the future with confidence - having escaped one of the darker places of the Twilight Zone. |
|
Thread Tools | |
|
|