Prophecy

[Frad73]

Hi,

one of my coworkers believes in clairvoyance and similar paranormal stuff. He's also engaged in a (german) forum about that stuff and said guy is very concerned about the "end time" and the like. This issue does really stress me out, so I decided that I have to write about it
He told me that in that forum there are some (self-proclaimed) "seers", and that they made very often correct predictions.

During the course of this year he told me of the predictions of a seer (most of them are written down on the forum and are meant to be fulfilled until the the beginning of 2013). I list them together with the events that allegedly fulfilled them, so that you can get a picture of the topic:
- Attack/Assassination of a politician -> My coworker says that this was fulfilled when the Syrian defense secretary was blown up in July
- Riots in France -> There were riots in France during august.
- Virus outbreak during the 2012 Summer Olympics -> There was a the Ebola outbreak in Uganda this year, which got media-attention during the 2012 Summer Olympics.
- Rise of fuel prices until shortage until November -> Fuel prices have risen, but the shortage is not yet been fulfilled.
- Energy crisis in Europe and USA until autumn -> No.
- USA will be engaged in a "Great conflict" in October (an event that would bother the USA very much) -> He pretends that this was fulfilled by Hurricane Sandy.
- A political scandal/affair will be revealed in the USA during November -> He says that this might be the affair of Petraeus and Allen.
- There will be an earthquake around November 20 (the seer didn't know where, but he speculated that the location might be Italy) -> We'll see
- There will be banner headlines (until the end of November) about the area around "Baden-Baden" (town in Germany), because of "Russians and Muslims". (Whatever that means) -> Not yet happened.
- There will be scandals/affairs in the EU at the beginning of 2013.
- The EU will react disproportionate to an incident after January and the population will be surprised that there are no consequences.

I've already tried to relativize the forecasts above: That riots do occur almost every second year in France, that the virus didn't break out during the Summer Olympics but in June, that a hurricane (Sandy) isn't a "conflict", that the affair around Petraeus and Allen isn't directly a political affair, that there are wrong predictions etc. (The only forecast that I couldn't rebut was the assassination of a politician)

But he ignores this. Which further arguments can I bring up?

My coworker is very confident with the forecasts of the seer. He told me that the seer prophesied a devaluation of the Dollar within the next 15 months, a lot of natural disasters, wars, a great earthquake in the USA, Putin will drive the USA into bankruptcy, Russia will attack Europe and conquer Germany once the USA are incapable of action.
(Like I've already written: He's very concerned about the "end time" - stockpiling inventories, building a shelter (because of a possible nuclear war), being prepared for the attack of the Russians (lol) and similar crazy stuff.)

[Ray Brady]

Originally Posted by Frad73

The only forecast that I couldn't rebut was the assassination of a politician.

I challenge you to name a year in which no politician on the planet was attacked. If ambassadors are counted as politicians, the phrase "attack/assassination" is broad enough that this will be a guaranteed hit every year.

[Baffled]

Originally Posted by Frad73

a great earthquake in the USA

Well that one's definitely gonna happen. Probably not in the next 15 months, but, y'know...eventually.

Quote:

Putin will drive the USA into bankruptcy

Okay that's just nuts. One person -- and Putin at that -- driving the US into bankruptcy? How does he envision such a thing could even happen?

[gabeygoat]

Originally Posted by Ray Brady

I challenge you to name a year in which no politician on the planet was attacked. If ambassadors are counted as politicians, the phrase "attack/assassination" is broad enough that this will be a guaranteed hit every year.

Exactly. It would be way weirder if no politician (or government official) was attacked at all somewhere in the world over the course of a year.

[sopclod]

Riots in France aren't that uncommon either, depending on your definition of "riot". Like, spirited demonstration, perhaps.

[I Ratant]

Those "predictions" are as pointless as telling Caesar to "beware the Ides of March"...-on- the Ides of March, with not a hint as to what to beware of.

[Astreja]

- Attack/Assassination of a politician: Very common.

- Riots in France: Also very common.

- Virus outbreak during the 2012 Summer Olympics: Could have been "fulfilled" by a head cold.

- Rise of fuel prices: Very common.

- Energy crisis in Europe and USA until autumn: Falsified, unless he meant gas lineups in the wake of Sandy.

- USA will be engaged in a "Great conflict" in October: Texas sharpshooter fallacy regarding Hurricane Sandy, or possibly thinking of the US election campaign.

- A political scandal/affair will be revealed in the USA during November: Possible "hit" with Petraeus and Allen scandal.

- There will be an earthquake around November 20: We'll find out in a couple of days. I think a margin of error of +/- 3 days would be sufficient, so if there are no earthquakes of significance before November 23 this one's going to miss.

- There will be banner headlines (until the end of November) about the area around "Baden-Baden" (town in Germany), because of "Russians and Muslims". (Whatever that means): Unless Russians and Muslims are involved in an altercation in Baden-Baden in the last 2 weeks of November, I expect this one will be a clear miss.

- There will be scandals/affairs in the EU at the beginning of 2013: Too vague to be a prophesy.

- The EU will react disproportionate to an incident after January and the population will be surprised that there are no consequences: Too vague to be a prophesy.

All in all, the "seers" on the forum don't look very impressive. Also, don't discount the possibility that these purported prophets could have inside information (for example, knowing that someone in government was having an affair, and deliberately "outing" the individual in order to fulfill a prophesy). Not all that probable, but probability > 0.

[Lukraak_Sisser]

Originally Posted by Frad73

<snipped for brevity>
I've already tried to relativize the forecasts above: That riots do occur almost every second year in France, that the virus didn't break out during the Summer Olympics but in June, that a hurricane (Sandy) isn't a "conflict", that the affair around Petraeus and Allen isn't directly a political affair, that there are wrong predictions etc. (The only forecast that I couldn't rebut was the assassination of a politician)

But he ignores this. Which further arguments can I bring up?

My coworker is very confident with the forecasts of the seer. He told me that the seer prophesied a devaluation of the Dollar within the next 15 months, a lot of natural disasters, wars, a great earthquake in the USA, Putin will drive the USA into bankruptcy, Russia will attack Europe and conquer Germany once the USA are incapable of action.
(Like I've already written: He's very concerned about the "end time" - stockpiling inventories, building a shelter (because of a possible nuclear war), being prepared for the attack of the Russians (lol) and similar crazy stuff.)

I've summarized the prophecies and given my take on them (prophecy in italics, comment normal font), yet I doubt any comment would dissuade him, your own comments show clearly its a fraudulent seer, and if he dismisses those out of hand he will do so with every other comment too.

- Attack/Assassination of a politician -> My coworker says that this was fulfilled when the Syrian defense secretary was blown up in July
As already answered by others, politicians get attacked with depressing regularity
predicting NO attacks at all for a year would be truly against statistics
- Riots in France -> There were riots in France during august.
There were some standard French demonstrations, which happen a lot there too, riots would need a lot more violence
- Virus outbreak during the 2012 Summer Olympics -> There was a the Ebola outbreak in Uganda this year, which got media-attention during the 2012 Summer Olympics.
A virus outbreaks happens every day. Predicting a specific virus on a specific location at a specific date would be a prediction.
- Rise of fuel prices until shortage until November -> Fuel prices have risen, but the shortage is not yet been fulfilled.
Yay, (s)he can read economic papers yet gets the true prediction wrong
- Energy crisis in Europe and USA until autumn -> No.
And you're right. No
- USA will be engaged in a "Great conflict" in October (an event that would bother the USA very much) -> He pretends that this was fulfilled by Hurricane Sandy.
Also, the USA is still involved in a war in Afghanistan. Hurricanes are (as you said) not conflicts.
- A political scandal/affair will be revealed in the USA during November -> He says that this might be the affair of Petraeus and Allen.
A political scandal will happen somewhere in the USA every month if you look hard enough, the country is enormous and has literally tens of thousands of politicians. Again specific name/date is a prediction
- There will be an earthquake around November 20 (the seer didn't know where, but he speculated that the location might be Italy) -> We'll see
There are earthquakes happening now. Date/time/place/magnitude is a prediction, claiming earthquakes will happen is geology
- There will be banner headlines (until the end of November) about the area around "Baden-Baden" (town in Germany), because of "Russians and Muslims". (Whatever that means) -> Not yet happened.
But unlikely too, closest to a real prediction in the lot.
- There will be scandals/affairs in the EU at the beginning of 2013.
- The EU will react disproportionate to an incident after January and the population will be surprised that there are no consequences.
For these two, see the US politicians, as this applies to the EU too. Especially as the wording is so broad the incident could be a major terrorist attack or the fact that the caterer to the EU parliament forgot to include desserts for a meal.


For most of it it seems the seer is just a person capable of watching the news and understanding human nature.

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

Originally Posted by Frad73

- There will be an earthquake around November 20 (the seer didn't know where, but he speculated that the location might be Italy) -> We'll see

He might as well have written "the sun will rise on or around November 20th". Here's a list of recent significant earthquakes: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/

Quote:

M 6.4, 163km SSW of Severo-Kuril'sk, Russia Friday, November 16, 2012 18:12:39 UTC
M 6.0, 9km E of Tlalchapa, Mexico Thursday, November 15, 2012 09:20:23 UTC
M 6.1, 82km SW of Vallenar, Chile Wednesday, November 14, 2012 19:02:05 UTC
M 6.4, 248km S of Cape Yakataga, Alaska Monday, November 12, 2012 20:42:17 UTC
M 6.5, 30km WSW of Champerico, Guatemala Sunday, November 11, 2012 22:15:00 UTC
M 6.8, 52km NNE of Shwebo, Burma Sunday, November 11, 2012 01:12:38 UTC
M 4.3, 17km SE of Hazard, Kentucky Saturday, November 10, 2012 17:08:14 UTC

As you can see, significant earthquakes happen every few days.

But this prophet didn't predict a significant earthquake, he predicted an earthquake. So let's look at the earthquake statistics for the last few hours: http://www.world-earthquakes.com/ind...thq_statistics

Quote:

Earthquakes distribution for past hours in the World:
A = 50 Earthquakes with magnitude less than 3 on Richter scale (83.33%).
B = 7 earthquakes with magnitude between 3 and 5 (11.67%).
C = 3 earthquakes with magnitude between 5 and 6 (5%).
D = 0 earthquakes with magnitude between 6 and 7 (0%).
E = 0 earthquakes with magnitude between 7 and 8 (0%).
F = 0 earthquakes with magnitude greater than 8 (0%).

Now, these figures will almost certainly change by the time you visit that link, but from what I've just posted you can see that there have been 60 earthquakes globally in the last few hours.

And if you look at that link and compare it to the earlier link, you'll see that the earlier link is missing out some significant earthquakes that have happened within the last day or so. I'm sure it'll be updated soon.

So, will there be an earthquake somewhere in the world on the 20th? Yes. It's not really much of a prediction, though.

[Garrette]

Everyone has performed a good analysis of the alleged predictions, but presenting a rebuttal in this fashion will likely do nothing in regard to changing your friend's mind. I recommend the approach of creating your own Prophecy Fulfilled list. Pick four or five received recent years and list how the predictions work for those years, too. Keep it short, simple, and non-accusatory. Give it to your friend and don't push too hard or he will shut down any discussion.

[Minarvia]

Just being VERY general here - I was born in the 60's and many others like me were also born under the constant threat of nuclear war. As soon as I could read, EVERY single year had tabloids trumpeting the "end times" and were filled with "bibilical prophecies" and such. And I do mean every single year.

The rag mags still do this. Every single year.

All of those things your friend mentioned are indeed depressingly common. But the world still spins.

Don't worry overmuch about this. I used to, over 40 years ago, but not any more. Maybe I'm just jaded, but I've seen and heard too much of this sort of thing to have it upset me any more. I have enough in my own life to deal with.

Welcome! And good luck with your friend.

[Yorkie]

Originally Posted by Garrette

Everyone has performed a good analysis of the alleged predictions, but presenting a rebuttal in this fashion will likely do nothing in regard to changing your friend's mind. I recommend the approach of creating your own Prophecy Fulfilled list. Pick four or five received recent years and list how the predictions work for those years, too. Keep it short, simple, and non-accusatory. Give it to your friend and don't push too hard or he will shut down any discussion.

I agree with Garrette about not pushing to hard. As long as your co-worker isn't harming anyone or getting fleeced leave him to it. Take a chill pill and don't stress - you know you're right. Given time they will probably realise it's a pile of rubbish anyway.

[Garrette]

Originally Posted by Yorkie

I agree with Garrette about not pushing to hard. As long as your co-worker isn't harming anyone or getting fleeced leave him to it. Take a chill pill and don't stress - you know you're right. Given time they will probably realise it's a pile of rubbish anyway.

Yep. I've known it intellectually for a long time, but I hadn't really let it sink in, and I think many on this forum miss the very important point:

Debunking a claim does not equate to convincing a person.

So clarify your intent, even if only to yourself, before entering a discussion.