Derren brown's actually new show!

[andyandy]

just a heads up - tonight at 9pm on channel 4.....

looks good - derren's devised a "system" to beat the bookies

part 1

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part 2 - including the coin toss

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part 3 - including the photo trick...

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the explanation.....

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the conclusion

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Spoiler Alert: This thread will discuss the programme which may spoil your enjoyment of the programme.

[Last of the Fraggles]

This looked good...pity I'm not going to be able to see it.

Any idea if/when it will be repeated?

[DJM]

Azrael 5 is already counting the cash.

[andyandy]

lol

excellent program - i guessed his system about half way through - very clever

i wonder if this is just a one off, we need more derren brown on tv....

[DreadNiK]

I don't come here often these days but I just caught that show (came in on the ads before the 5th race).

I wanted to watch it coz I'm a little skeptical of DB and haven't really seen enough to make a judgement - but it was excellent.

As soon has he said 'see if you can figure it out' or whatever, after the little spiel about homeopathy (I LOVE the fact he included that), i suddenly twigged, pausing only to consider the scale.

How did he do the end? Just bought 4000 on each horse and switched the tickets (since he's almost certainly a sleight of hand master), or were there many many other 'winners' who also got to stand next to him on the 'last race' and we only saw the one who got lucky? (remember he spent a whole day flipping a coin, or so he claims, I'd let him off that one...)

[andyandy]

Originally Posted by DreadNiK

I don't come here often these days but I just caught that show (came in on the ads before the 5th race).

I wanted to watch it coz I'm a little skeptical of DB and haven't really seen enough to make a judgement - but it was excellent.

As soon has he said 'see if you can figure it out' or whatever, after the little spiel about homeopathy (I LOVE the fact he included that), i suddenly twigged, pausing only to consider the scale.

How did he do the end? Just bought 4000 on each horse and switched the tickets (since he's almost certainly a sleight of hand master), or were there many many other 'winners' who also got to stand next to him on the 'last race' and we only saw the one who got lucky? (remember he spent a whole day flipping a coin, or so he claims, I'd let him off that one...)

the ending i guess is likely to have been a simple ticket switch for the winning horse - ideally i suppose he'd have liked for the horse he predicted to win, but the little sleight allowed him to still be "right" whichever horse won....

with the coin flip....surely he could have just spent time learning to flip at the same height and speed (indeed i'm sure it's a trick he already knows) - it's pretty easy to skew the odds considerably...i find it hard to believe he spent 9 hours solid flipping a coin

i was wondering about the photograph bit - that was a bit of classic magic - still i couldn't work out how he'd have done it....

[andyandy]

Originally Posted by Last of the Fraggles

This looked good...pity I'm not going to be able to see it.

Any idea if/when it will be repeated?

you should be able to see it online through four on demand....you need to register/download some software first....(free) and i think have a UK ISP....

[DreadNiK]

Photograph bit? I only caught the final 15 mins or so...? Yeah she was almost certainly plenty distracted enough by the thought of losing that money for him to easily switch the tickets, and yeh you're probably right about the coin tosses, i expect i could skew the odds with just a short amount of practice.

btw, http://www.flatstats.co.uk/ppp/viewt...43eeb3aa7a08b1

Third post from bottom...

Not suprising really - Derren Brown's 'The Real Hustle'? Still he did it well and hopefully educated the TV audience.

[edd]

Originally Posted by andyandy

with the coin flip....surely he could have just spent time learning to flip at the same height and speed (indeed i'm sure it's a trick he already knows) - it's pretty easy to skew the odds considerably...i find it hard to believe he spent 9 hours solid flipping a coin

Probably takes long enough to practice that it's better to just do it cold. By the time you're really skewing it you'll have got there anyway

[AgeGap]

How much would this have cost repaying all the people who had failed bets? £1,000's. May still have been cheap for a TV programme budget though. I did guess the secret but this is a known scam. Similar is also used in guessing a baby's sex before birth.

I was going to put down a few thoughts about the programme but this may would be against TOS. Anyone want to PM me?

[Mr Clingford]

I enjoyed the programme and had my eyes opened to a new scam. Good stuff. I was impressed by his trick with the photographs as I have no idea at all how he can do that kind of illusion.

[andyandy]

i was thinking about the cost - i don't think it would have been too much -

they started with 8000

first bet, no money was placed, 6600 drop out

for the second bet of £10, 1600 are left

1280 drop out (cost £12,800)

for the third bet of £20, 320 are left

256 drop out (cost £5120)

for the fourth bet of £40 64 are left,

~52 drop out (cost £2080)

for the fifth bet of £80, ~12 are left

ha....well obviously they had slightly different start numbers to get down to 5 for the fifth bet....

and i can't remember precisely how much each bet was - i think it was doubling each time....though the last one was £150 so maybe the first was £20....

anyway, with my model it would only cost about £20,000 - an amount Noel happily gives away most afternoons

if you want to PM me with your thoughts on the show, please do!

[Mr Clingford]

Yes, the cost of the bets is peanuts in comparison to the usual cost of an hour's programming, even with a few £4000 bets at the end.

[andyandy]

the first part's on youtube already....the internet's great

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(first 10 mins)

hopefully the same user will upload the rest later....

[Garrette]

Originally Posted by DJM

Azrael 5 is already counting the cash.

What's Az got to do with it?

No, wait, I just figured it out. My wallet's a bit light...


It's the one television opportunity that I, as an Ami, am jealous of the UK for. Can't see DB, and on youtube is not the same.

[DJM]

Originally Posted by Garrette

What's Az got to do with it?

No, wait, I just figured it out. My wallet's a bit light...

Most amazing part is that he did that without even touching the wallet. I always tell him that he should become a professional magician..

[Azrael 5]

Hey!
I'm only here to help those in need of Derren! I do it for love...


....well,almost.

[Michael C]

I'll bet that in the last race, Derren didn't place any bets at all. Instead of placing £4000 on each horse, it was cheaper to just pay out whatever Kadisha would have won if she had placed £4000 on the winning horse. She was in such an emotional state at the end, she let Derren handle everything and wouldn't have noticed that the money wasn't actually being paid out by a real bookie.

[andyandy]

many thanks to the magic forum pixies for merging the OP

[DJM]

I enjoyed the show and I think it was produced really well. But many of the things there didn't look believable at all. I doubt that a show like that can get thousands of random people to be part of the Internent game in such a short time, especially when about 98% of the people would see it as some sort of Spam and wouldn't even bother opening the email, let alone spend money on what's written there. Stuff like that get sent all the time, why would they just try this specific one? I know I wouldn't.

Again, I really enjoyed the show and Derren's presentetion was great as usual.. but the method itself seemed as belieavable as Derren and his crew wasting 9 hours on tossing a coin.

[JonWhite]

Originally Posted by DJM

I enjoyed the show and I think it was produced really well. But many of the things there didn't look believable at all. I doubt that a show like that can get thousands of random people to be part of the Internent game in such a short time, especially when about 98% of the people would see it as some sort of Spam and wouldn't even bother opening the email, let alone spend money on what's written there. Stuff like that get sent all the time, why would they just try this specific one? I know I wouldn't.

Again, I really enjoyed the show and Derren's presentetion was great as usual.. but the method itself seemed as belieavable as Derren and his crew wasting 9 hours on tossing a coin.

I was wondering not so much about getting that many people involved to start with (simply mentioning on the email that it was potentially for TV involvement without needing to even mention DB may well generate enough interest), but more about getting that many people with their own cameras who'd diligently keep a video diary of their actions. As andyandy points out the actual betting costs in terms of such a TV show budget aren't a problem but supplying that many cameras would be.

As for the coin toss, I too find it a tad hard to believe they'd spend nine hours on it when simple editing of the top down bowl shot could be done. Not that it alters the basic point that 10 heads would eventually occur by chance.

Personally I enjoyed the photo prediction effect best and am still trying to figure part of that out...

[Bob Klase]

Originally Posted by DJM

Again, I really enjoyed the show and Derren's presentetion was great as usual.. but the method itself seemed as belieavable as Derren and his crew wasting 9 hours on tossing a coin.

What was the coin tossing thing exactly?

[DJM]

Originally Posted by JonWhite

I was wondering not so much about getting that many people involved to start with (simply mentioning on the email that it was potentially for TV involvement without needing to even mention DB may well generate enough interest)

I don't know about that, as people are usually suspicous when they just get emails from addresses they don't know. Even if there's a mention of a TV show, it could be just another lie to make someone sign up. People are not that gullible, not when those kind of scams are well known in emails. Getting over 7000 random people to partcipant in something like that is pretty much impossible. The idea was nice to teach the viewers a lesson about such scams, but I saw it more like a staged TV show rather than some kind of documentary.


And I agree about the video cameras, I found that weird as well. I wouldn't be surprised if the woman was choosen in advance, as she seemed very good for that type of show.. kinda seemed to me like someone casted her for that or something.

Originally Posted by Bob Klase

What was the coin tossing thing exactly?

They showed Derren tossing heads 10 times in a row, in one shot. After awhile he explained to the viewers that it took him 9 hours to get it right.

[JonWhite]

Originally Posted by DJM

I don't know about that, as people are usually suspicous when they just get emails from addresses they don't know.

Absolutely.

I kind'a figured that the people would at least have some sort of reference or reason to take the emails seriously and not just be literally completely random from a completely unknown source i.e. they had applied to Objective in some "other" regard, may have previously been in contact with the perceived email source or whatever.

[andyandy]

Originally Posted by DJM

I don't know about that, as people are usually suspicous when they just get emails from addresses they don't know. Even if there's a mention of a TV show, it could be just another lie to make someone sign up. People are not that gullible, not when those kind of scams are well known in emails. Getting over 7000 random people to partcipant in something like that is pretty much impossible. The idea was nice to teach the viewers a lesson about such scams, but I saw it more like a staged TV show rather than some kind of documentary.

And I agree about the video cameras, I found that weird as well. I wouldn't be surprised if the woman was choosen in advance, as she seemed very good for that type of show.. kinda seemed to me like someone casted her for that or something.
.

I think you're underestimating the number of people who want to be on tv - there are databases compiled by companies that are full of people desperate to be "famous" - these are the ones that are frequently used to fill all sorts of tv gameshows etc etc. They are not especially representative of the general population therefore - these are people who believe they've "got something special" - that they're "bubbly" or "charismatic" or "really funny" .... etc. I would be very surprised if Channel 4 didn't go through one of these companies - remember this wasn't just an anonomous email, but a chance to take part in a tv show....if it was done through such a company, or with reference to channel 4 then people would have been falling over themselves....8000 people? Absolutely no problem getting 8000 people who want to have their 15 minutes....

with regards to the video cameras, well they only were distributed near the end weren't they? For the third bet you only need ~300. For the 4th bet you only need ~60.

so i think it's well within the bounds of believability...

[DJM]

Yes, I guess that makes sense if they were not totally random. Maybe they were even people who emailed Derren's website or something, and that's how they got chosen... though Derren kept saying they had no idea he was involved there, so not sure about that part.

Anyway, I hope the woman was really surprised by everything and not just some sort of stooge. Makes everything much more impressive.

[JonWhite]

Originally Posted by andyandy

with regards to the video cameras, well they only were distributed near the end weren't they? For the third bet you only need ~300. For the 4th bet you only need ~60.

so i think it's well within the bounds of believability...

Didn't the girl who "won" have video diary material of herself and bets right from the start of the process? To assume/trust that every participant had (and used) cameras from the outset would be a bit of a stretch, albeit their own or supplied.

[DJM]

She was asked to start the video diary before the second bet.. not sure how many people were left by that time.

[andyandy]

Originally Posted by DJM

Yes, I guess that makes sense if they were not totally random. Maybe they were even people who emailed Derren's website or something, and that's how they got chosen... though Derren kept saying they had no idea he was involved there, so not sure about that part.

Anyway, I hope the woman was really surprised by everything and not just some sort of stooge. Makes everything much more impressive.

i always think that it's really not in Derren's interest to cheat in any way - his entire career would be seriously damaged (if not over) if a former stooge "reavealed all"....if your entire appeal relies on people trusting that you're not "cheating" then it pays to be whiter than white....

Originally Posted by JonWhite

Didn't the girl who "won" have video diary material of herself and bets right from the start of the process? To assume/trust that every participant had (and used) cameras from the outset would be a bit of a stretch, albeit their own or supplied.

hmmm.....i don't think so - it was only when the bets got bigger that we actually see the video camera bit....prior to that i think they show her, but with later footage - ie not real time....i'll watch through later

[Bob Klase]

Originally Posted by DJM

They showed Derren tossing heads 10 times in a row, in one shot. After awhile he explained to the viewers that it took him 9 hours to get it right.

Around 1977 I knew a guy that could flip a coin 10 (or 100) times in a row and get heads every time. He could also let you call heads or tails, then flip and get whatever you called. He wasn't a magician but he did it well- I couldn't figure it out and couldn't find anybody that knew how it was done. Over the years I sort of forgot about it. Then 7 or 8 years ago the basic method was published in Magic For Dummies.

[DJM]

Originally Posted by andyandy

i always think that it's really not in Derren's interest to cheat in any way - his entire career would be seriously damaged (if not over) if a former stooge "reavealed all"....if your entire appeal relies on people trusting that you're not "cheating" then it pays to be whiter than white....

Well, he does "cheat" a lot, since he's mostly a magician/mentalist. Nothing he says should be taken literally. For example, he tried to make us believe he was tossing the coin for 9 hours, but most chances it was just a trick (and thanks to Bob for explaining one way to do it) that lasted in one try and his explanation was only part of the misdirection. The 9 hours could have easily been 20 hours or more, and every hour of filming costs money. So they would never risk that.

That's why I don't rule out the possibility that the other explanations weren't completely honest either. Maybe they emailed much less than 8000 people, maybe some of them knew Derren was involved. There's a lot behind the scenes that we don't get to see.. It's usually like that on TV shows, nothing against Derren.

[Bob Klase]

Originally Posted by DJM

For example, he tried to make us believe he was tossing the coin for 9 hours, but most chances it was just a trick (and thanks to Bob for explaining one way to do it) that lasted in one try and his explanation was only part of the misdirection. The 9 hours could have easily been 20 hours or more, and every hour of filming costs money. So they would never risk that.

Which actually raises another question for me (not having seen the show). If he spent spent 9 hours flipping a coin (regardless of whether he really did or not) trying to get 10 heads in a row, what was the point? What it supposed to be some of type of magic or mental effect?

Seems to me that while the odds of 10 heads in a row with just 10 flips are slim, if you flip a coin for 9 hours straight then there's a good chance that at some point you will get 10 (or more) heads in a row) and/or 10 (or more tails) in a row. That's supposed to be magic?

[andyandy]

Originally Posted by Bob Klase

Which actually raises another question for me (not having seen the show). If he spent spent 9 hours flipping a coin (regardless of whether he really did or not) trying to get 10 heads in a row, what was the point? What it supposed to be some of type of magic or mental effect?

Seems to me that while the odds of 10 heads in a row with just 10 flips are slim, if you flip a coin for 9 hours straight then there's a good chance that at some point you will get 10 (or more) heads in a row) and/or 10 (or more tails) in a row. That's supposed to be magic?

it'll make sense if you do watch it

[DJM]

Originally Posted by Bob Klase

Seems to me that while the odds of 10 heads in a row with just 10 flips are slim, if you flip a coin for 9 hours straight then there's a good chance that at some point you will get 10 (or more) heads in a row) and/or 10 (or more tails) in a row. That's supposed to be magic?

Remember this is Derren Brown, not everything is about magic..

[andyandy]

Originally Posted by DJM

Well, he does "cheat" a lot, since he's mostly a magician/mentalist. Nothing he says should be taken literally. For example, he tried to make us believe he was tossing the coin for 9 hours, but most chances it was just a trick (and thanks to Bob for explaining one way to do it) that lasted in one try and his explanation was only part of the misdirection. The 9 hours could have easily been 20 hours or more, and every hour of filming costs money. So they would never risk that.

That's why I don't rule out the possibility that the other explanations weren't completely honest either. Maybe they emailed much less than 8000 people, maybe some of them knew Derren was involved. There's a lot behind the scenes that we don't get to see.. It's usually like that on TV shows, nothing against Derren.

sure - a lot of what DB says with regards to NLP (for example) is part of the act and not literally true - but there is a difference between doing a magic trick and using a stooge....
with regards to the coin toss - absolutely - i think i mentioned earlier that it's very easy to skew the odds by tossing at the same height/speed....even i've managed to consistently get about 8 out of 10 after a little practise....i expect a magician could get 10/10 pretty reguarly. Watching back on the footage, i doubt he spent 9 hours solid tossing the coin - far more likely he was filmed a few times in the morning and then we saw time lapse clock to illustrate throughout the day, before we get a finish in the evening....
with regards to the video cameras - i'm surprised it was as early as bet 2 - on bet 2 over 1000 would have had to be given out....which is rather a lot,

you can get them for £100, so you'd be looking at £100,000 - though you would i presume get them back again....

[AgeGap]

Originally Posted by JonWhite

Didn't the girl who "won" have video diary material of herself and bets right from the start of the process? To assume/trust that every participant had (and used) cameras from the outset would be a bit of a stretch, albeit their own or supplied.

I can see what you are getting at. On the other hand, mobiles and digital cameras could have been used in the early stages.
I am stumped with the polaroids though.

[edd]

Originally Posted by andyandy

sure - a lot of what DB says with regards to NLP (for example) is part of the act and not literally true - but there is a difference between doing a magic trick and using a stooge....
with regards to the coin toss - absolutely - i think i mentioned earlier that it's very easy to skew the odds by tossing at the same height/speed....even i've managed to consistently get about 8 out of 10 after a little practise....i expect a magician could get 10/10 pretty reguarly. Watching back on the footage, i doubt he spent 9 hours solid tossing the coin - far more likely he was filmed a few times in the morning and then we saw time lapse clock to illustrate throughout the day, before we get a finish in the evening....
with regards to the video cameras - i'm surprised it was as early as bet 2 - on bet 2 over 1000 would have had to be given out....which is rather a lot,

Y'know, did you stop trying after getting about 8/10 in a row? Because that doesn't take long to get. I'd imagine even a couple of runs in close proximity comes about fairly easily by chance.

If DB took 9 hours of solid coin tossing then he was either very unlucky or he took a very long time doing each flip. 20 hours is just way too unlucky, even if you're a slow flipper.

It's also worth pointing out that he doesn't even need to be that good if he is able to bias the flip. Even getting heads 60% of the time reduces the time you spend flipping by about a factor of 5 (according to my simulations anyway). And as I said, 9 hours is either unlucky or very slow, and actually being able to control a coin flip so that you can pretty much do 10/10 on demand is just a totally unnecessary amount of effort.

[Azrael 5]

If he did 9 hours of flipping,then the moon is made of cheese.

[Professor Yaffle]

I can't believe most people didn't realise how it was done really early on. With me, the moment he did the 10 coins in a row thing, I said "you could just do loads of takes till you got it right", and (regardless of whether that was actually how he did the coin flip) that then cued me in as to how he did the system.

I did enjoy it though, especially when he brought in the relevance when it comes to sCAM (particularly homoeopathy).

[DJM]

Originally Posted by Professor Yaffle

I can't believe most people didn't realise how it was done really early on. With me, the moment he did the 10 coins in a row thing, I said "you could just do loads of takes till you got it right", and (regardless of whether that was actually how he did the coin flip) that then cued me in as to how he did the system.

Many people realised what the system was before the show even started, so don't be too proud of yourself..