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Drooper · 14th February 2003, 04:07 AM

One of the enduring mysteries of this current global political crisis is the urgent need to invade Iraq. Ostensibly, the reason is the Iraqi possession of WMDs that could fall into the hands of terrorists etc.. But this doesn't strike me as a particularly powerful rationale.

I have another theory. It may be a bit loopy, but take a look.

Start with the known facts.

Osama Bin Laden's beef is with the House of Saudi. He wants the royal family removed and replaced by a fundamentalist Islamic state. Part of this requires the removal of all "infidels", i.e. US troops from the Islamic holy lands. In fact this is one of his specific demands. With this as his mantra, Osama has managed to build strong political support in Saudi Arabia and the country is in fact a hotbed of instability and their own terrorism problems.

US troops have remained stationed in Saudi due to the instability in the region, primarily due to Saddam. While Iraq remains such a destabilising force, there is little polical impetus to withdraw troops from Saudi Arabia.

My theory is this. US and the Saudis realise that the route out of their problems lies with destroying Osam Bin Laden's power base; the widespread rage that western troops are based in Saudi Arabia. So, in order to bring conditions under which the US could withdraw its troops, the Saddam problem needs solving. A quick war, the removal of Saddam and a stable regime put in place, with lots of money from the US and Saudi Arabia to grease the wheels. Threat removed, US forces can be repatriated quickly. This begins to defuse religious/political unrest in Saudi Arabia and robs OBL of both support and money.

OBL is reduced to an insignificant annoyance.

Note that this also helps allow a clearer focus on solving the Palestinian issue, with the full attention of the US and without the more provocative input from OBL

Graham · 14th February 2003, 04:12 AM

Hi Drooper,

It's a nice theory but won't the US have to leave at least some troops in Iraq for at least some period and won't that cause just as much, if not more problems than th etroops in Saudi Arabia?

Graham

Jon_in_london · 14th February 2003, 04:13 AM

I read somewhere that the US plans to maintain troops in Iraq for 3 years. HArdly a quick withdrawal. I also dont think the Sauds want the US troops out as they are, ineffect, a major deterrent to any Islamic nutcase coup type thingy.

Drooper · 14th February 2003, 04:18 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Graham
Hi Drooper,

It's a nice theory but won't the US have to leave at least some troops in Iraq for at least some period and won't that cause just as much, if not more problems than th etroops in Saudi Arabia?

Graham

A couple of things:

It doesn't have to be US troops, it could be Blue Beret Middle Eastern troops: Jordanian, Saudi, Omanis etc.

Secondly, even if there are some US troops in Iraq, it is the presence of troops in Saudi Araibia that is the problem. The fundamental Islamic masses in Saudi who are the followers of OBL will not be as bothered with troops in Iraq.

The Don · 14th February 2003, 04:19 AM

Maybe if troops were permanently based in Iraq ?

Drooper · 14th February 2003, 04:21 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Jon_in_london
I read somewhere that the US plans to maintain troops in Iraq for 3 years. HArdly a quick withdrawal. I also dont think the Sauds want the US troops out as they are, ineffect, a major deterrent to any Islamic nutcase coup type thingy.

The US troops in Saudi are, if not the source of much of the domestic political problems in Saudi, at least a major contributor to them.

Second, US troops in Iraq is not the same. Saudi Arabia represents the holy lands and it is also the home of OBL and his followers.

14th February 2003, 04:07 AM	#1
Drooper Guest Join Date: Nov 2002 Posts: 1,983	Why Exactly Iraq One of the enduring mysteries of this current global political crisis is the urgent need to invade Iraq. Ostensibly, the reason is the Iraqi possession of WMDs that could fall into the hands of terrorists etc.. But this doesn't strike me as a particularly powerful rationale. I have another theory. It may be a bit loopy, but take a look. Start with the known facts. Osama Bin Laden's beef is with the House of Saudi. He wants the royal family removed and replaced by a fundamentalist Islamic state. Part of this requires the removal of all "infidels", i.e. US troops from the Islamic holy lands. In fact this is one of his specific demands. With this as his mantra, Osama has managed to build strong political support in Saudi Arabia and the country is in fact a hotbed of instability and their own terrorism problems. US troops have remained stationed in Saudi due to the instability in the region, primarily due to Saddam. While Iraq remains such a destabilising force, there is little polical impetus to withdraw troops from Saudi Arabia. My theory is this. US and the Saudis realise that the route out of their problems lies with destroying Osam Bin Laden's power base; the widespread rage that western troops are based in Saudi Arabia. So, in order to bring conditions under which the US could withdraw its troops, the Saddam problem needs solving. A quick war, the removal of Saddam and a stable regime put in place, with lots of money from the US and Saudi Arabia to grease the wheels. Threat removed, US forces can be repatriated quickly. This begins to defuse religious/political unrest in Saudi Arabia and robs OBL of both support and money. OBL is reduced to an insignificant annoyance. Note that this also helps allow a clearer focus on solving the Palestinian issue, with the full attention of the US and without the more provocative input from OBL
Drooper Guest Join Date: Nov 2002 Posts: 1,983

14th February 2003, 04:12 AM	#2
Graham Graduate Poster Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 1,465	Hi Drooper, It's a nice theory but won't the US have to leave at least some troops in Iraq for at least some period and won't that cause just as much, if not more problems than th etroops in Saudi Arabia? Graham
Graham Graduate Poster Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 1,465

14th February 2003, 04:13 AM	#3
Jon_in_london Illuminator Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 4,994	I read somewhere that the US plans to maintain troops in Iraq for 3 years. HArdly a quick withdrawal. I also dont think the Sauds want the US troops out as they are, ineffect, a major deterrent to any Islamic nutcase coup type thingy.
	__________________ Radicals and Racists Don't point your finger at me I'm a small town white boy Just tryin' to make ends meet Don't need your religion Don't watch that much T.V. Just makin' my livin', baby Well that's enough for me

14th February 2003, 04:18 AM	#4
Drooper Guest Join Date: Nov 2002 Posts: 1,983	Quote: Originally posted by Graham Hi Drooper, It's a nice theory but won't the US have to leave at least some troops in Iraq for at least some period and won't that cause just as much, if not more problems than th etroops in Saudi Arabia? Graham A couple of things: It doesn't have to be US troops, it could be Blue Beret Middle Eastern troops: Jordanian, Saudi, Omanis etc. Secondly, even if there are some US troops in Iraq, it is the presence of troops in Saudi Araibia that is the problem. The fundamental Islamic masses in Saudi who are the followers of OBL will not be as bothered with troops in Iraq.
Drooper Guest Join Date: Nov 2002 Posts: 1,983

14th February 2003, 04:21 AM	#6
Drooper Guest Join Date: Nov 2002 Posts: 1,983	Quote: Originally posted by Jon_in_london I read somewhere that the US plans to maintain troops in Iraq for 3 years. HArdly a quick withdrawal. I also dont think the Sauds want the US troops out as they are, ineffect, a major deterrent to any Islamic nutcase coup type thingy. The US troops in Saudi are, if not the source of much of the domestic political problems in Saudi, at least a major contributor to them. Second, US troops in Iraq is not the same. Saudi Arabia represents the holy lands and it is also the home of OBL and his followers.
Drooper Guest Join Date: Nov 2002 Posts: 1,983

14th February 2003, 04:19 AM	#5
The Don Philosopher Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Cymru Posts: 8,569	Maybe if troops were permanently based in Iraq ?