The March of Technology

Garrette · 18th February 2008, 01:32 PM

As Blu-Ray seems to have become the clear-winner in the format wars, I have begun to think about the permanence of that part of my magic library comprising instructional DVDs. (Not to mention the VHS instructional tapes I haven't watched in eons.)

As I understand it, Blu-Ray players will still play my non-HD-DVDs, but even if so, eventually Blu-Ray will be obsolete and my DVDs even obsoletier.

Replacing my DVDs with Blu-Rays isn't economically feasible. [Checks with personal accountant who--upon phoning Zurich for an update on the status of my millions--confirms my assessment]. Even if it were, I can't do it every time the media changes.

Perhaps I need to buy a cheap but quality DVD player now and keep it in secure storage except for those times when I want to watch my instructional disks?

While I appreciate the value of disks (previously tapes) as an instructional tool in that I can learn more quickly from them, I have come to appreciate the permanence of books even more.

Here's a thought: In future I would be willing to pay a few dollars extra for disks if they were accompanied by a transcript with photos.

Don't mind me. Just rambling in my self-pity.

Marquis de Carabas · 18th February 2008, 01:42 PM

Yes, the march of technology leads inexorably to the april of obsolescence.

Garrette · 18th February 2008, 01:54 PM

come what May?

Bob Klase · 18th February 2008, 06:07 PM

Originally Posted by Garrette

Perhaps I need to buy a cheap but quality DVD player now and keep it in secure storage except for those times when I want to watch my instructional disks?

Why bother. When Blue Ray becomes obsolete it's likely the next thing will still play DVDs. And subsequent next things as long as they're using similar digital technology (like mpeg 2).

When it reaches the point where something comes out that won't play DVDs you'll have at least a couple years of transition time before that last technology is phased out. So even if the next thing after Blue Ray is not DVD compatible, you'll have plenty of time to buy a cheap Blue Ray to save for DVDs. At that point a Blue Ray player will probably not cost much more than a cheap DVD player would cost you today.

For comparison, I bought my first VHS around 1981. VHS (and Beta) was just becoming affordable to the average person and I paid almost $1000 for my first VCR. Adjusting for inflation, that's close to $2000 in 2000 dollars. I bought my first DVD player in 2000 for less than $100, and I bought a DVD recorder a couple years later for less than $150. That was around the time VCRs started getting scarce and I bought one for $30. It would have been a waste of money to spend $1000 1981 dollars to buy a spare VCR to store for them time when VHS became obselete when waiting until they actually did become obselete cost me about $2000 less.

Garrette · 19th February 2008, 05:56 AM

Originally Posted by Bob Klase

Why bother. When Blue Ray becomes obsolete it's likely the next thing will still play DVDs. And subsequent next things as long as they're using similar digital technology (like mpeg 2).

When it reaches the point where something comes out that won't play DVDs you'll have at least a couple years of transition time before that last technology is phased out. So even if the next thing after Blue Ray is not DVD compatible, you'll have plenty of time to buy a cheap Blue Ray to save for DVDs. At that point a Blue Ray player will probably not cost much more than a cheap DVD player would cost you today.

For comparison, I bought my first VHS around 1981. VHS (and Beta) was just becoming affordable to the average person and I paid almost $1000 for my first VCR. Adjusting for inflation, that's close to $2000 in 2000 dollars. I bought my first DVD player in 2000 for less than $100, and I bought a DVD recorder a couple years later for less than $150. That was around the time VCRs started getting scarce and I bought one for $30. It would have been a waste of money to spend $1000 1981 dollars to buy a spare VCR to store for them time when VHS became obselete when waiting until they actually did become obselete cost me about $2000 less.

Fair point, but there is another thought that this brings to mind.

I've done no research on it, but I have heard from friends that DVDs and CDs deterioriate over time. According to them, the expected shelf life is about 20 years.

Anyone heard anything similar?

Bob Klase · 19th February 2008, 09:04 AM

Originally Posted by Garrette

Fair point, but there is another thought that this brings to mind.

I've done no research on it, but I have heard from friends that DVDs and CDs deterioriate over time. According to them, the expected shelf life is about 20 years.

Anyone heard anything similar?

I haven't done a lot of research, but I read quite a bit about the question a couple years ago. Some people say that, others (and some manufacturers) say they'll last 50-100 years. I think both may be true. It depends on the brand (or manufacturer since some manufacturers make several brands), type of dye used, storage conditions and probably other factors. I would guess that 20 years is the minimum for all but the cheapest/poorest quality DVDs.

But that only applies to burned DVDs (which would be many magic DVDs but not most commercial movies).

aofl · 19th February 2008, 06:32 PM

Originally Posted by Garrette

Replacing my DVDs with Blu-Rays isn't economically feasible. [Checks with personal accountant who--upon phoning Zurich for an update on the status of my millions--confirms my assessment]. Even if it were, I can't do it every time the media changes.

Perhaps I need to buy a cheap but quality DVD player now and keep it in secure storage except for those times when I want to watch my instructional disks?

IANAL but to the best of my knowledge you can still make back-ups of DVDs for personal archival use. I don't know the capacity of Blu-Rays, but I suspect you can fit more than a couple DVDs onto one.

Originally Posted by Garrette

While I appreciate the value of disks (previously tapes) as an instructional tool in that I can learn more quickly from them, I have come to appreciate the permanence of books even more.

I love books just because they're books... But boy-howdy is it easier to learn magic from a video. Using both, though, is ideal.

A

Bob Klase · 19th February 2008, 09:57 PM

Originally Posted by aofl

IANAL but to the best of my knowledge you can still make back-ups of DVDs for personal archival use.

As far as I know, if they're not encrypted you can legally make a backup copy. If they are encypted it's not legal to break the encryption for the purpose of making a backup copy, so for practical purposes it's not legal to make a backup up copy since you can't do that without breaking the encryption.

Originally Posted by aofl

I don't know the capacity of Blu-Rays, but I suspect you can fit more than a couple DVDs onto one.

A Blu Ray holds 25 Gb, so you could fit over 5 DVDs onto one.

Garrette · 20th February 2008, 06:05 AM

Back up copies? 25Gb capacity?

You assume too much about my technical abilities.

And you call yourselves skeptics...... Sheesh.

Bob Klase · 20th February 2008, 08:34 AM

But you have much time to learn, grasshopper.

Here_to_learn · 23rd February 2008, 04:49 AM

Originally Posted by Bob Klase

As far as I know, if they're not encrypted you can legally make a backup copy. If they are encypted it's not legal to break the encryption for the purpose of making a backup copy, so for practical purposes it's not legal to make a backup up copy since you can't do that without breaking the encryption.

My understanding was that it's the data stored on the DVD that is encrypted, so transferring that (encrypted) data from one medium to another could be done without having to break the encryption/decrypt. It's when you want to view the content (or if you want to transfer to a different encoding) that you would need to decrypt.

How this affects the laws I have no idea on, but I would consider that when new storage media come along, to transfer the old stuff that still has a value onto whatever new there is. This is how I have handled my scanned pictures, transferring from disk to disk, and then keeping separate backups around.

So, if you worry about your DVDs today, copy them onto something else, otherwise just take it easy, DVD will be around for quite some time, given the current volume of DVD readers/players/disks being around.

(IMHO)

Bob Klase · 23rd February 2008, 04:01 PM

Originally Posted by Here_to_learn

My understanding was that it's the data stored on the DVD that is encrypted, so transferring that (encrypted) data from one medium to another could be done without having to break the encryption/decrypt.

Not true. If you doubt this, rent a DVD from Blockbuster and try to transfer the encrypted data to your computer hard drive.

Here_to_learn · 23rd February 2008, 04:31 PM

Originally Posted by Bob Klase

Not true. If you doubt this, rent a DVD from Blockbuster and try to transfer the encrypted data to your computer hard drive.

Interesting - you live and learn, thanks!

Anyway, there are many programs around (no idea on the legality, but I guess that given Bob Klases information, they may be slightly bent) that could help with backup copies, if that route is considered.

jimgerrish · 18th March 2008, 07:49 PM

Under the "live and learn" category- when lasar discs were new (remember the great big shiney 12 inch diameter lasar discs?) I bought an extra lasar disc player, wrapped it in plastic, and put it into storage next to the extra player I had bought for the earlier capacitance vinyl discs (they were black vinyl and were played with a needle). I guess I could unwrap them now, but meanwhile video tapes became really inexpensive (and I have a VHS machine in storage for the future as well) and I replaced most of my movies with them, just as DVDs came out and are now really inexpensive, and I have many duplicate movies in all the various formats.

So I've lived, but haven't yet learned. I absolutely refuse to get into this blue-ray thing. Unless they become really cheap.

18th February 2008, 01:32 PM	#1
Garrette Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2001 Posts: 7,926	The March of Technology As Blu-Ray seems to have become the clear-winner in the format wars, I have begun to think about the permanence of that part of my magic library comprising instructional DVDs. (Not to mention the VHS instructional tapes I haven't watched in eons.) As I understand it, Blu-Ray players will still play my non-HD-DVDs, but even if so, eventually Blu-Ray will be obsolete and my DVDs even obsoletier. Replacing my DVDs with Blu-Rays isn't economically feasible. [Checks with personal accountant who--upon phoning Zurich for an update on the status of my millions--confirms my assessment]. Even if it were, I can't do it every time the media changes. Perhaps I need to buy a cheap but quality DVD player now and keep it in secure storage except for those times when I want to watch my instructional disks? While I appreciate the value of disks (previously tapes) as an instructional tool in that I can learn more quickly from them, I have come to appreciate the permanence of books even more. Here's a thought: In future I would be willing to pay a few dollars extra for disks if they were accompanied by a transcript with photos. Don't mind me. Just rambling in my self-pity.
Garrette Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2001 Posts: 7,926	__________________ My kids still love me.

18th February 2008, 01:42 PM	#2
Marquis de Carabas Dark Lord of the Pith Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: beneath the vast indifference of heaven Posts: 21,975	Yes, the march of technology leads inexorably to the april of obsolescence.
	__________________ All your brain chemistry is belong to me. -KateHL

18th February 2008, 01:54 PM	#3
Garrette Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2001 Posts: 7,926	come what May?
Garrette Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2001 Posts: 7,926	__________________ My kids still love me.

19th February 2008, 05:56 AM	#5
Garrette Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2001 Posts: 7,926	Originally Posted by Bob Klase Why bother. When Blue Ray becomes obsolete it's likely the next thing will still play DVDs. And subsequent next things as long as they're using similar digital technology (like mpeg 2). When it reaches the point where something comes out that won't play DVDs you'll have at least a couple years of transition time before that last technology is phased out. So even if the next thing after Blue Ray is not DVD compatible, you'll have plenty of time to buy a cheap Blue Ray to save for DVDs. At that point a Blue Ray player will probably not cost much more than a cheap DVD player would cost you today. For comparison, I bought my first VHS around 1981. VHS (and Beta) was just becoming affordable to the average person and I paid almost $1000 for my first VCR. Adjusting for inflation, that's close to $2000 in 2000 dollars. I bought my first DVD player in 2000 for less than $100, and I bought a DVD recorder a couple years later for less than $150. That was around the time VCRs started getting scarce and I bought one for $30. It would have been a waste of money to spend $1000 1981 dollars to buy a spare VCR to store for them time when VHS became obselete when waiting until they actually did become obselete cost me about $2000 less. Fair point, but there is another thought that this brings to mind. I've done no research on it, but I have heard from friends that DVDs and CDs deterioriate over time. According to them, the expected shelf life is about 20 years. Anyone heard anything similar?
Garrette Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2001 Posts: 7,926	__________________ My kids still love me.

19th February 2008, 06:32 PM	#7
aofl Critical Thinker Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 306	Originally Posted by Garrette Replacing my DVDs with Blu-Rays isn't economically feasible. [Checks with personal accountant who--upon phoning Zurich for an update on the status of my millions--confirms my assessment]. Even if it were, I can't do it every time the media changes. Perhaps I need to buy a cheap but quality DVD player now and keep it in secure storage except for those times when I want to watch my instructional disks? IANAL but to the best of my knowledge you can still make back-ups of DVDs for personal archival use. I don't know the capacity of Blu-Rays, but I suspect you can fit more than a couple DVDs onto one. Originally Posted by Garrette While I appreciate the value of disks (previously tapes) as an instructional tool in that I can learn more quickly from them, I have come to appreciate the permanence of books even more. I love books just because they're books... But boy-howdy is it easier to learn magic from a video. Using both, though, is ideal. A
aofl Critical Thinker Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 306	__________________ Have you ever considered the cesspool of your minds? The best thing is not to be born. But who is as lucky as that? To whom does it happen??!! An evil mind is my only consolation! - Theodore When you're out of slits, you're out of pier. - Crow

18th February 2008, 06:07 PM	#4
Bob Klase Master Poster Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Largo, FL Posts: 2,389	Originally Posted by Garrette Perhaps I need to buy a cheap but quality DVD player now and keep it in secure storage except for those times when I want to watch my instructional disks? Why bother. When Blue Ray becomes obsolete it's likely the next thing will still play DVDs. And subsequent next things as long as they're using similar digital technology (like mpeg 2). When it reaches the point where something comes out that won't play DVDs you'll have at least a couple years of transition time before that last technology is phased out. So even if the next thing after Blue Ray is not DVD compatible, you'll have plenty of time to buy a cheap Blue Ray to save for DVDs. At that point a Blue Ray player will probably not cost much more than a cheap DVD player would cost you today. For comparison, I bought my first VHS around 1981. VHS (and Beta) was just becoming affordable to the average person and I paid almost $1000 for my first VCR. Adjusting for inflation, that's close to $2000 in 2000 dollars. I bought my first DVD player in 2000 for less than $100, and I bought a DVD recorder a couple years later for less than $150. That was around the time VCRs started getting scarce and I bought one for $30. It would have been a waste of money to spend $1000 1981 dollars to buy a spare VCR to store for them time when VHS became obselete when waiting until they actually did become obselete cost me about $2000 less.

19th February 2008, 09:04 AM	#6
Bob Klase Master Poster Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Largo, FL Posts: 2,389	Originally Posted by Garrette Fair point, but there is another thought that this brings to mind. I've done no research on it, but I have heard from friends that DVDs and CDs deterioriate over time. According to them, the expected shelf life is about 20 years. Anyone heard anything similar? I haven't done a lot of research, but I read quite a bit about the question a couple years ago. Some people say that, others (and some manufacturers) say they'll last 50-100 years. I think both may be true. It depends on the brand (or manufacturer since some manufacturers make several brands), type of dye used, storage conditions and probably other factors. I would guess that 20 years is the minimum for all but the cheapest/poorest quality DVDs. But that only applies to burned DVDs (which would be many magic DVDs but not most commercial movies).

19th February 2008, 09:57 PM	#8
Bob Klase Master Poster Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Largo, FL Posts: 2,389	Originally Posted by aofl IANAL but to the best of my knowledge you can still make back-ups of DVDs for personal archival use. As far as I know, if they're not encrypted you can legally make a backup copy. If they are encypted it's not legal to break the encryption for the purpose of making a backup copy, so for practical purposes it's not legal to make a backup up copy since you can't do that without breaking the encryption. Originally Posted by aofl I don't know the capacity of Blu-Rays, but I suspect you can fit more than a couple DVDs onto one. A Blu Ray holds 25 Gb, so you could fit over 5 DVDs onto one.

20th February 2008, 06:05 AM	#9
Garrette Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2001 Posts: 7,926	Back up copies? 25Gb capacity? You assume too much about my technical abilities. And you call yourselves skeptics...... Sheesh.
Garrette Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2001 Posts: 7,926	__________________ My kids still love me.

20th February 2008, 08:34 AM	#10
Bob Klase Master Poster Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Largo, FL Posts: 2,389	But you have much time to learn, grasshopper.

23rd February 2008, 04:49 AM	#11
Here_to_learn Graduate Poster Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Stockholm, Sweden Posts: 1,064	Originally Posted by Bob Klase As far as I know, if they're not encrypted you can legally make a backup copy. If they are encypted it's not legal to break the encryption for the purpose of making a backup copy, so for practical purposes it's not legal to make a backup up copy since you can't do that without breaking the encryption. My understanding was that it's the data stored on the DVD that is encrypted, so transferring that (encrypted) data from one medium to another could be done without having to break the encryption/decrypt. It's when you want to view the content (or if you want to transfer to a different encoding) that you would need to decrypt. How this affects the laws I have no idea on, but I would consider that when new storage media come along, to transfer the old stuff that still has a value onto whatever new there is. This is how I have handled my scanned pictures, transferring from disk to disk, and then keeping separate backups around. So, if you worry about your DVDs today, copy them onto something else, otherwise just take it easy, DVD will be around for quite some time, given the current volume of DVD readers/players/disks being around. (IMHO)

23rd February 2008, 04:01 PM	#12
Bob Klase Master Poster Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Largo, FL Posts: 2,389	Originally Posted by Here_to_learn My understanding was that it's the data stored on the DVD that is encrypted, so transferring that (encrypted) data from one medium to another could be done without having to break the encryption/decrypt. Not true. If you doubt this, rent a DVD from Blockbuster and try to transfer the encrypted data to your computer hard drive.

23rd February 2008, 04:31 PM	#13
Here_to_learn Graduate Poster Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: Stockholm, Sweden Posts: 1,064	Originally Posted by Bob Klase Not true. If you doubt this, rent a DVD from Blockbuster and try to transfer the encrypted data to your computer hard drive. Interesting - you live and learn, thanks! Anyway, there are many programs around (no idea on the legality, but I guess that given Bob Klases information, they may be slightly bent) that could help with backup copies, if that route is considered.

18th March 2008, 07:49 PM	#14
jimgerrish Student Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: New Jersey Posts: 30	Under the "live and learn" category- when lasar discs were new (remember the great big shiney 12 inch diameter lasar discs?) I bought an extra lasar disc player, wrapped it in plastic, and put it into storage next to the extra player I had bought for the earlier capacitance vinyl discs (they were black vinyl and were played with a needle). I guess I could unwrap them now, but meanwhile video tapes became really inexpensive (and I have a VHS machine in storage for the future as well) and I replaced most of my movies with them, just as DVDs came out and are now really inexpensive, and I have many duplicate movies in all the various formats. So I've lived, but haven't yet learned. I absolutely refuse to get into this blue-ray thing. Unless they become really cheap.
	__________________ Jim Gerrish http://www.geocities.com/endofearth2001/ Last edited by jimgerrish; 18th March 2008 at 07:50 PM.