Lonely, so lonely

dogjones · 18th April 2008, 07:09 AM

Mathematical speculation which concludes that we're probably all alone. Oh, jeez.

http://www1.uea.ac.uk/cm/home/servic...t%2Bthere%253F

Lanzy · 18th April 2008, 07:19 AM

I guess I'll just have to be content tryingto meet the 6 billion folks we do know about.

Jimbo07 · 18th April 2008, 07:20 AM

I haven't read the journal article. I hope it explains the following:

Quote:

His model, published in the journal Astrobiology, suggests an upper limit for the probability of each step occurring is 10 per cent or less,

I'm hoping that he's done more than simply pull that number from his posterior. BTW, I posted the same question in the SETI podcast thread

Here.

Jimbo07 · 18th April 2008, 07:29 AM

* double post *

Jimbo07 · 18th April 2008, 07:32 AM

* triple post *

I Ratant · 18th April 2008, 08:30 AM

Keep the cat off the keyboard.

Gevaudan · 18th April 2008, 10:00 AM

Ah, he's pulling figures out his butt. We only have ONE example of life to go by. You can't make any kind of prediction with only a single data point. And then of course there could be life on non-earthlike planets that have a totally different biology.

sphenisc · 18th April 2008, 10:44 AM

Originally Posted by Gevaudan

...You can't make any kind of prediction with only a single data point. And then of course there could be life on non-earthlike planets that have a totally different biology.

Whereas it's easy with none at all.

Gevaudan · 18th April 2008, 05:51 PM

Originally Posted by sphenisc

Whereas it's easy with none at all.

What?

18th April 2008, 07:09 AM	#1
dogjones Graduate Poster Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Bermuda Posts: 1,281	Lonely, so lonely Mathematical speculation which concludes that we're probably all alone. Oh, jeez. http://www1.uea.ac.uk/cm/home/servic...t%2Bthere%253F
	__________________ It's great being ideologically flexible.

18th April 2008, 07:19 AM	#2
Lanzy Muse Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 880	I guess I'll just have to be content tryingto meet the 6 billion folks we do know about.
Lanzy Muse Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 880

18th April 2008, 07:20 AM	#3
Jimbo07 Illuminator Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 3,413	I haven't read the journal article. I hope it explains the following: Quote: His model, published in the journal Astrobiology, suggests an upper limit for the probability of each step occurring is 10 per cent or less, I'm hoping that he's done more than simply pull that number from his posterior. BTW, I posted the same question in the SETI podcast thread Here.
Jimbo07 Illuminator Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 3,413	__________________ This post approved by your local jPac (Jimbo07 Political Action Committee), also registered with Jimbo07 as the Jimbo07 Equality Rights Knowledge Betterment Action Group. Atoms in supernova explosion get huge business -- Pixie of key

18th April 2008, 07:29 AM	#4
Jimbo07 Illuminator Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 3,413	* double post *
Jimbo07 Illuminator Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 3,413	__________________ This post approved by your local jPac (Jimbo07 Political Action Committee), also registered with Jimbo07 as the Jimbo07 Equality Rights Knowledge Betterment Action Group. Atoms in supernova explosion get huge business -- Pixie of key Last edited by Jimbo07; 18th April 2008 at 07:37 AM.

18th April 2008, 07:32 AM	#5
Jimbo07 Illuminator Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 3,413	* triple post *
Jimbo07 Illuminator Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 3,413	__________________ This post approved by your local jPac (Jimbo07 Political Action Committee), also registered with Jimbo07 as the Jimbo07 Equality Rights Knowledge Betterment Action Group. Atoms in supernova explosion get huge business -- Pixie of key Last edited by Jimbo07; 18th April 2008 at 07:59 AM.

18th April 2008, 08:30 AM	#6
I Ratant Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 15,305	Keep the cat off the keyboard.

18th April 2008, 10:00 AM	#7
Gevaudan Thinker Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 181	Ah, he's pulling figures out his butt. We only have ONE example of life to go by. You can't make any kind of prediction with only a single data point. And then of course there could be life on non-earthlike planets that have a totally different biology.
Gevaudan Thinker Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 181	__________________ I am part of a degenerate elite Dragging our society into the street Into the abyss and to the sewer, don't you see? The man just told me, he told me on TV

18th April 2008, 10:44 AM	#8
sphenisc Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 3,749	Originally Posted by Gevaudan ...You can't make any kind of prediction with only a single data point. And then of course there could be life on non-earthlike planets that have a totally different biology. Whereas it's easy with none at all.
sphenisc Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 3,749

18th April 2008, 05:51 PM	#9
Gevaudan Thinker Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 181	Originally Posted by sphenisc Whereas it's easy with none at all. What?
Gevaudan Thinker Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 181	__________________ I am part of a degenerate elite Dragging our society into the street Into the abyss and to the sewer, don't you see? The man just told me, he told me on TV