(Ex CIA) Ray McGovern warns of imminent false flag attack

[metamars]

http://www.radiodujour.com/people/mc...aymcgovern.mp3

"Imminent" actually means over the next 2 months.

The scenario he posits is Israel dressing up a ship to look like it's Iranian, and then sinking a US destroyer. Personally, I think a false flag operation of this type is more likely to involve US operatives. I mean, how many Israeli boats do you hear about in the Persian Gulf? I don't go fishing there, so maybe there's lots of them, but I've never heard of any.

What I'd like to know is if the war gamers who are gaming attacks on Iran have considered what happens if the Iranians respond via their Hezbollah allies, giving them nuclear materials to make, in effect, dirty rockets and missiles? If these come flying into Israel, causing a rash of birth defects, will Israelis be eager to reproduce? What, then, happens to Israel? Depopulating Israel may not concern US war gamers, but I'm sure the Israelis have a different perspective.

And what if dirty rockets become become established in terrorists' minds as a weapon of choice? Will dirty bombs be next, perhaps exploding in NYC? We've seen insurgents climb a learning curve wrt IEDs, which now also have seen a lot of use in Afghanistan. Do the war gamers ever worry about the 'lessons' that they are teaching their victims?

For a historical parallel, consider: The ancient Spartans were told by their great law giver, Lycurgus, not to have frequent campaigns against the same people, so that they not become proficient at warfare. This principle was ignored by the Spartan king Agesilaus, who had some sort of fixation on warring with Thebes. In the end, Thebes thrashed the Spartans so soundly at Leuctra (using an echelon formation that was unusual, at the time, and I believe, unknown to the Spartans), it spelled the end of Spartan dominance.

Besides all that, an attack on Iran may make it's central government disintegrate. While that may suite some war gamers or neocon lunatics, we can see from Iraq what sort of mess results when a state with no well functioning central authority nevertheless has lots of hidden weapons. With no central authority, how can ensuing factions with terrorism on their minds be suppressed? Dirty rockets that can't reach the US can still hit Israel from Lebanon. A central authority which doesn't exist can't be pressured to help suppress terrorism, or anything else.

BTW, Wayne Madsen is lately suggesting false flag ops by the Mossad in a Houston port is in the works, perhaps blowing up LNG ships.

[metamars]

Sorry, this should have been posted to the general Conspiracy forum. Moderator: please move it.

[SDC]

LNG? Lowest Nommon Gedominator? Give us a little help here.

Oh yeah. Mossad really is in the habit of bombing Texas. Uh huh.

[Blender Head]

So when August passes and nothing happens can I sleep better at night?

[SDC]

Originally Posted by Blender Head

So when August passes and nothing happens can I sleep better at night?

Don't bet on it. Someone else will come along. Probably the Scots will invade the Llano Estacado.

[T.A.M.]

Originally Posted by Blender Head

So when August passes and nothing happens can I sleep better at night?

No, but you will have yet another bit of evidence (like you needed any) that people like McGovern, and others of his ilk (he is a truther), are paranoid delusionacs.

TAM

[Blender Head]

These Truthers are worse than the Republicans at the expectations game.

[Thunder]

Forgive me..but we heard the same warning last year..the year before that..and the year before that.

[OldTigerCub]

Ummmm....there hasn't been a recent increase of Mossad agents signing up for dancing lessons, has there?

[Blender Head]

Wasn't there supposed to be an attack on November 27th of last year?

[Hokulele]

Originally Posted by metamars

If these come flying into Israel, causing a rash of birth defects, will Israelis be eager to reproduce? What, then, happens to Israel? Depopulating Israel may not concern US war gamers, but I'm sure the Israelis have a different perspective.

Umm, yeah. OK.

[fezzic]

Everyone has an opinion.

Some have the idea that they are predicting a future occurence.

Given enough predictions, there is a good chance of one of them coming true (fitting the actual event, at least to some degree).

As for the rest, when the prediction does not pan out, they go on making predictions because they are still convinced they are making a "valid" prediction of a future occurence.

Since they are not advising someone who has to make decisions based on what they are advised, there are no direct consequences to being wrong, so they continue.

[AZCat]

Originally Posted by SDC

LNG? Lowest Nommon Gedominator? Give us a little help here.

Oh yeah. Mossad really is in the habit of bombing Texas. Uh huh.

LNG = Liquid Natural Gas.

[SDC]

Aha. Thanks, AZCat. It's hard enough to keep track of all the dastardly deeds of Mossad without having to deal with stray acronyms.

[AZCat]

Originally Posted by SDC

Aha. Thanks, AZCat. It's hard enough to keep track of all the dastardly deeds of Mossad without having to deal with stray acronyms.

My pleasure. Anything to lessen the load. Weeding the genuine flags from the false ones takes quite a bit of time. You'd be surprised how many flags that appear genuine are not. The MLB logo is often abused, as are the other major sports and college logos. I'm not sure why the false flags are going to attack - maybe they're angry about the lack of benefits available for their kind. When was the last time you heard of a counterfeit flag being warrantied?

[Thunder]

Originally Posted by OldTigerCub

Ummmm....there hasn't been a recent increase of Mossad agents signing up for dancing lessons, has there?

i have noticed alot of jews doing the Horah in Bed-Stuy lately

[chillzero]

(Use the report function in future please )

[gumboot]

If I recall correctly at least one of Alex Jones' "predictions" never came true because "they" found out about AJ's prediction, realised he was on to them, and shut the whole thing down.

Apparently.

[defaultdotxbe]

Originally Posted by gumboot

If I recall correctly at least one of Alex Jones' "predictions" never came true because "they" found out about AJ's prediction, realised he was on to them, and shut the whole thing down.

Apparently.

of course, if he predicts something and it happens hes a genious, if he predicts something and it doesnt happen, hes a hero

[MG1962]

Originally Posted by Blender Head

Wasn't there supposed to be an attack on November 27th of last year?

Well Robert Cade, the inventor of Gatoraid died - he was only 80 years old - so obviously it was not from natural causes

[moon1969]

AHH joos and Israel are involved againg. Well maybe Nashrallah and Hezbollah plus Hamas will do false flag attack and blame it on the joos???

[jaydeehess]

Wasn't there supposed to be war with Iran a few years ago that was to be initiated by a false flag op?

Every few months since sept 2001 we get the warnings from the woo-side that a FF op will be carried out 'soon', or 'by the end of....'(summer, fall, or the year)

Did no one ever get taught the story "The Boy Who Cried Wolf" after I was in school way-back-when?

[dudalb]

The really intresting think about the OP are the links at the bottom. More proof that Anti Semitism is no longer a Right Wing monopoly. In fact, that de facto Anti Semitism has become acceptable in certain militant left wing circles is one of the most disturbing developments of the past few years.

[theprestige]

I suspect that in the context of CTs, "false flag" is just another convenient twoofer excuse to ignore any evidence that undermines their irrational beliefs.

[metamars]

Originally Posted by dudalb

The really intresting think about the OP are the links at the bottom. More proof that Anti Semitism is no longer a Right Wing monopoly.

More proof that smear merchants and innuendo abound in online forums, and the anti-Semitic smear is not going out of style, anytime soon.

While there are doubtless anti-Xers (fill in the X) in any group of people, there seems to be little interest in doing in depth studies of CTers.

Then again, the anti-Semitic smear is such an all-time favorite, I'd want to know who did the research, and who paid for it, before I accepted any real research that may eventually show statistically significant anti-Semitism (or anything else, for that matter) amongst CT'ers. Such research, in order to be taken seriously by me, would have to select people from the general population, and not pretend that online personas cannot be easily faked, allowing highly motivated but unbalanced individuals to skew a 'sample', and that disinformation cannot be deliberately and insincerely injected, also.

[dudalb]

Yeah, it is just a coincidence that every Conspiracy Theory seems to have a high number of people who have "issues" with the Jews among it's adherents.

[Thunder]

the funny thing about predicting false flag terror attacks, is that eventually, someday, there will be another terror attack in europe or the usa. then all the fruits and nuts can yell:

"see!!!..I told ya so!!!!!"

[Schmitt.]

Are they seriously cycling through everyone who'll just say anything so that all periods of time will be covered by someone claiming there's an imminent false flag attack? It's getting a bit silly at this point.

[Sizzler]

While the truth movement certainly has its fair share of yearly predictions, I don't necessarily think they are a product of the truth movement. These kinds of predictions occur in several other spheres of life. Economics and weather come to mind. So when is the "big one" supposed to hit again??

I think these kinds of predictions are more of a condition of the human mind.

I do personally hope the prediction in OP is wrong.

[gumboot]

Originally Posted by Sizzler

These kinds of predictions occur in several other spheres of life. Economics and weather come to mind.

Economics and weather are both large, highly visible, easily measured, and constantly fluctuating systems. Predicting what the next likely fluctuation will be is a legitimate type of prediction. Scatter-gunning random isolated events that are part of a vague, poorly understood, nearly invisible and sporadic system (such as terrorism) is not.

[Foolmewunz]

Originally Posted by defaultdotxbe

of course, if he predicts something and it happens hes a genious, if he predicts something and it doesnt happen, hes a hero

Freely borrowed from his inspiration, the Televangelists, of course. (The only profession that lies as profusely as Alex.)

Evangelist: "If you send fifty dollars and pray with all your heart you can make the Mississippi River recede and save Iowa and Missouri."

He's got a win/win situation. If there are no floods, he's a born-again hero and they'll send even more money and prayer for his next cause. And if the river goes ahead an wipes out a few towns he can blame them for not praying hard enough (even though he collected a million bucks), so they should pray harder next time, ... and... uh... oh yea, ... Send more money!

[metamars]

Originally Posted by dudalb

Yeah, it is just a coincidence that every Conspiracy Theory seems to have a high number of people who have "issues" with the Jews among it's adherents.

Your eagerness to, as Barrie Zwicker would say, climb up the "abstraction ladder", (and thus conflate murderous and/or slanderous practices of a government with the people comprising the associated country on the one hand, and also conflate the existence of some (real or fake) anti-Semitic CT'ers with CT'ers as a whole, on the other), coupled with your complete ducking of the non-trivial issues I pointed to (lack of real research on the CT community, ease of multiple-identity fakery by a single, unbalanced individual, and detection of deliberate disinformation), shows us just how much a fair, deep thinker you are.

Thank-you, though, for continuing your smear effort. You have inspired me to change my sig to add expert testimony by William Schaap, of Covert Action Quarterly, on disinformation by the CIA and FBI. Therein is discussed a series of newpaper articles that the CIA cooked up, accusing Cuban soldiers of rape in Angola, subsequent capture by villagers, trial, and execution using their own weapons. A completely false set of imaginary stories.

Not to worry, though, dudalb. If you want to go around and proclaim that the Cubans did rape the Angolans, you go right ahead. In fact, you can spice it up, by saying that any time the Cubans ran into Jews, they raped them twice. Or raped them once, then ate them. Or any lie, at all.

Don't forget to climb up the abstraction ladder enough, though, such that you conflate all Cubans with anti-Semitic cannibals. They're still Commies, so they deserve everything they get. Right?

http://911blogger.com/node/14275

[SpaceMonkeyZero]

I want to go on record stating that someday, something dastardly will happen.

Just you wait!

You can quote me on it.

edit: metamars: sometimes your posts are a word salad.

[metamars]

Originally Posted by metamars

Such research, in order to be taken seriously by me, would have to select people from the general population, and not pretend that online personas cannot be easily faked, allowing highly motivated but unbalanced individuals to skew a 'sample', and that disinformation cannot be deliberately and insincerely injected, also.

I was listening to Thom Hartmann's show (of apparently around 6/5, but my mp3 6/5 file doesn't match the one on my computer) during lunch, and he related how his message board went through a period of getting spammed by shills spewing Republican talking points. So he instituted a policy of charging $4/year, payable via credit card, so that they could control this. He did some research on some of the names, and in one case, the guy was dumb enough to brag online that he was getting 10 cents per spam post. (Hartmann doesn't actually object to bona fide Republicans arguing on his board. He objects to shills who misrepresent themselves, and often make a single post on a thread containing the talking point, and then exit.)

I would suggest a twerp like this will just as easily make anti-Semitic posts for 10 cents per post, pretending to be a CT'er.

Some of the play for pay posters were working for 527's. He may have more info on his web site, http://thomhartmann.com/ .

[metamars]

Originally Posted by Sizzler

While the truth movement certainly has its fair share of yearly predictions, I don't necessarily think they are a product of the truth movement. These kinds of predictions occur in several other spheres of life. Economics and weather come to mind. So when is the "big one" supposed to hit again??

I think these kinds of predictions are more of a condition of the human mind.

I do personally hope the prediction in OP is wrong.

Me, too.

As has been pointed out, there have been predictions of an imminent attack on Iran, before. This one seems more credible, there having been a huge Israeli air force exercize the other day, involving in-flight refeuling, and runs about long enough to have reached Natanz, if they'd been pointed in that direction. Wayne Madsen has also reported on a huge spikes in procurement of Hellfire by the US, and its Brimstone equivalent by the British.

I find it disconcerting that nobody has a good answer to my question,

Quote:

What I'd like to know is if the war gamers who are gaming attacks on Iran have considered what happens if the Iranians respond via their Hezbollah allies, giving them nuclear materials to make, in effect, dirty rockets and missiles?

(Not to mention my learning curve question. )

I know next to nothing about war games, but whatever war games that were used for the 'Operation Iraqi Freedom', they don't seem to have correctly figured in the resulting asymmetric warfare. (Or did they? Some people think the US wanted chaos in Iraq, so as to get the oil deals we wanted, from a sufficiently weak Iraqi government.)

The amount of rockets which landed in Israel in the 2006 Lebanon War may have been militarily insignificant, but in the same numbers, utilized as dirty weapons, strikes me as sufficient to cause the eventual depopulation of Israel. From wikipedia:

Quote:

During the campaign Hezbollah fired between 3,970 and 4,228 rockets. About 95% of these were 122 mm (4.8 in) Katyusha artillery rockets, which carried warheads up to 30 kg (66 lb) and had a range of up to 30 km (19 mi).[61][62] An estimated 23% of these rockets hit built-up areas, primarily civilian in nature.

While a know-nothing ito war games, in my high school days I was the best chess player in my high school. Chess is all about looking ahead, at various scenarios, and I am having serious concerns about whether the war gamers looked ahead to the days and years, after.

[jaydeehess]

Originally Posted by dudalb

The really intresting think about the OP are the links at the bottom. More proof that Anti Semitism is no longer a Right Wing monopoly. In fact, that de facto Anti Semitism has become acceptable in certain militant left wing circles is one of the most disturbing developments of the past few years.

Whereas most CT's abhor the republicans there is also a large number that abhor Democrats, Socialism and Communism and other patently 'left wing' philosophies. So IMHO, trying to lay a left or right bent to the 'truth movement' is folly. They are sceptical to the point of paranoia, of big government or in fact any large organization be it religious or industrial. The world view of the CT's and specifically the TM, borrows heavily from the worst of the paranoid left and the paranoid right. Therefore they get to fear and hate whoever is in high office. If by some miracle, Ron Paul was elected POTUS they would turn on him within a month.

[metamars]

Seymour Hersh spills the beans about Bush's destablizing Iran, with Congressional approved funding.
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2...7fa_fact_hersh


Ray McGovern interviewed 6/30/2008 by Alex Jones
http://www.radiodujour.com/people/mc...aymcgovern.mp3

McGovern relates an 'interesting' (for lack of a better term) how Bush personally helped brand fraternity pledges. I found his remarks about the "Mafia lawyers" running interference for Bush's torture program particularly interesting. McGovern is from Brooklyn, and has personally observed mafiosi body language.

He also quotes General Taguba, describing his sense after General Abizaid told him that he was going to be investigated, that for the first time he felt like he was in the Mafia.

[hamelekim]

Originally Posted by T.A.M.

No, but you will have yet another bit of evidence (like you needed any) that people like McGovern, and others of his ilk (he is a truther), are paranoid delusionacs.

TAM

I'm so tired of the double standard you people have. You attack others personally, as nuts, and other pejorative terms, and then fly off the handle about ad hominen attacks when anyone criticizes you personally. Maybe you should take a look in the mirror.

Ray McCovern is a well educated, and highly distinguished individual, who has done more for his country and the world than you EVER have. The fact that you outright dimiss what he has to say shows your ignorance to the way the world works. If anyone knows international politics and espianoge it is ray McGovern. It was his life for several decades, so for you to dimiss him as a nut because his opinion, based off of his knowledge of the people in power, doesn't agree with yours, is pure ignorance.

When the attack does happen, I'm sure you will try to pass it off as some sort of accident and that Ray was arguing that it was going to happen for years so he is still a nut. I find it funny that so many skeptics lack true impartiality, when they claim to be more logical than everyone else.

Maybe, just maybe, your view of the world, and the motives of your political leaders, are not what you think they are.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_McGovern

Quote:

McGovern was born and raised in the Bronx. He graduated summa cum laude of Fordham University. A "Distinguished Military Graduate", he served in the US Army from 1962-64 as an intelligence officer. McGovern also received an M.A. in Russian Studies from Fordham University, a certificate in Theological Studies from Georgetown University and was a graduate of Harvard Business School's Advanced Management Program.

McGovern was a mid-level officer in the CIA in the 1960s where his focus was analysis of Soviet policy toward Vietnam. McGovern was one of President Ronald Reagan's intelligence briefers from 1981-85; he was in charge of preparing daily security briefs for Reagan, Vice President George H.W. Bush, the National Security Advisor, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Cabinet. Later, McGovern was one of several senior CIA analysts who prepared the President's Daily Brief (PDB) during the first Bush administration.

Upon retirement, McGovern was awarded the Intelligence Commendation Medal from Bush (which he later returned, see below) and worked for Washington-based non-profits before becoming co-director of the Servant Leadership School in Washington.

[metamars]

Originally Posted by metamars

McGovern is from Brooklyn

Oops. McGovern is from the Bronx, not Brooklyn. See post 38.

[metamars]

Originally Posted by metamars

What I'd like to know is if the war gamers who are gaming attacks on Iran have considered what happens if the Iranians respond via their Hezbollah allies, giving them nuclear materials to make, in effect, dirty rockets and missiles? If these come flying into Israel, causing a rash of birth defects, will Israelis be eager to reproduce?

U-235 and U-238 would not make very good warheads for a dirty bomb rocket.

From http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/11/...anium_dirt.php

Quote:

The dominant isotope of uranium, U-238, makes up over 99% of natural uranium and has a half-life of about five billion years. That means that if I have a pound of uranium and let is sit and “decay,” or break down into lighter elements, for five billion years, I will have half a pound left. (For comparison, the Earth is about five billion years old.) The lesser isotope, U-235 is 0.7% and has a half life of almost a billion years. This is to say uranium decays very slowly, which is to say it is not very radioactive. One way to think of this is to imagine that, on the day you were born, you swallowed an ounce of uranium and then lived with it inside you until you died and you lived to be 100 years old. Well, in those hundred years, you have lived just two hundred millionths of the half life, so if half of the uranium will decay in a half life, you would expect about one hundred millionth to decay during your lifetime. (The actual math is a bit more complicated because the decay is exponential, not linear, but not far enough different to change the point.) Not a very efficient way to irradiate someone. This is not to say that uranium is harmless. It is very slightly radioactive. In places where the natural rock has uranium in it, houses have higher concentrations of radon and that does have a risk. It is a heavy metal so it is poisonous, just as lead, mercury, cadmium and many other heavy metals are poisonous, but there are far more dangerous radioactive materials in common use in industry that could be used as dirty bomb material.

I have no idea how available nuclear materials which would be good for dirty bombs may be to Iran. I should think, though, that Iranian nuclear scientists are capable of handling them, if they can get a hold of them.

This is not a road the world needs to go down. In one sense, the current crises related to a high oil price may be a blessing in disguise. The resulting high food prices, as well as some food riots, may be just the reminder that Iran and Israel need in order to come to realize that feeding and securing their populations now and in the future requires peaceful coexistence, and would be facilitated by technological cooperation. E.g., I have read that Israel leads the world in water desalination technology. I don't know what the status is of Iran's water availability, but both Middle Eastern neighbors of both Iran and Israel likely are staring serious problems in the face. Does either Iran or Israel want to deal with neighbors that are becoming lawless and chaotic due to water shortages?

OK, I just did a quick search and this site has some interesting articles. One of them says that

Quote:

Twenty-five percent of Israel’s water supply depends on access to the Golan Heights. Since Israel’s 1967 occupation of the Golan Heights, Israel has claimed the territory as its own. To move peace negotiations forward, Israel should consider desalinization of the Mediterranean Sea as an alternative water source, and return the Golan Heights to Syria under a water-sharing agreement similar to that between Israel and Jordan.

Earth Policy Institute has this article: http://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/indicator7.htm

Quote:

Water shortages now plague almost every country in North Africa and the Middle East. Algeria, Egypt, Iran, and Morocco are being forced into the world market for 40 percent or more of their grain supply. As population continues to expand in these water-short nations, dependence on imported grain is rising.

Iran, one of the most populous countries in the Middle East, with 70 million people, is facing widespread water shortages. In the northeast, Chenaran Plain—a fertile agricultural region to the east of Mashad, one of Iran's largest and fastest-growing cities—is fast losing its water supply. Wells drawing from the water table below the plain are used for irrigation and to supply water to Mashad. The latest official estimate shows the water table falling by 8 meters in 2001 as the demand for water far outstrips the recharge rate of aquifers.

Falling water tables in parts of eastern Iran have caused many wells to go dry. Some villages have been evacuated because there is no longer any accessible water. Iran is one of the first countries to face the prospect of water refugees—people displaced by the depletion of water supplies.

(emphasis mine)

Frankly, I think that the idea that Iranian leaders wake up in the morning and begin thinking about the glorious day that they blow Israel off the map with nuclear weapons is ludicrous. As Israel already has nuclear weapons, nobody doubts that they would return the favor. And if the Iranians hates Jews so much, why don't they start by wiping out their indigenous population of Jews? What are they waiting for?

Meanwhile, nuclear energy is the preferred way to power desalination plants (that's my understanding, though I don't know much about the subject). There seems to be plenty of room for, and need of, a compromise. E.g., Iran could agree to a suspension of nuclear enrichment for 40 years (to make up a number), in return for guarantees from Russia and China (nobody should expect them to trust the West) for nuclear fuel. They can get desalination equipment from Israel, for which Israel could get cash, plus something far more valuable - good will. They could cement this relationship by jointly researching improvements in desalination technology.

Declaring a regional war against water shortage vs. risking unending hostility and radioactive contamination doesn't seem like such a hard choice to make. Ah, but that's the view from MetaMars.