Beijing Olympics: any effect on the election?

gdnp · 26th July 2008, 08:23 AM

How, if at all, will the 2008 Beijing Olympics effect the 2008 presidential campaign?

The Olympic games have been used for political purposes throughout history, with Hitler's Berlin olympics the poster child, but I believe that olympic games have also played a significant role in two more recent presidential races.

During the 1980 election campaign Jimmy Carter boycotted the Moscow Olympics in protest of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. This did several things:

It demonstrated US impotence to a Soviet military challenge
It allowed Moscow a propaganda coup by winning unprecedented numbers of medals
It pissed off a bunch of "sports heros" who had trained for years for one shot at glory and then had it yanked away so an impotent president could make a "statement"

The overall effect was to paint the picture of America as weak, powerless, petty, incapable of leading the free world. And Carter got creamed in the election.

Fast forward 4 years with Reagan in power. It is often forgotten that he was not particularly popular during the first half of his first term, with approval ratings dropping from 70% just after inauguration to just under 40% after 2 years while the country was in recession. Then the Russians did him a big favor: they decided to boycott the 1984 LA Olympics, bringing 13 eastern bloc allies with them, including perennial power East Germany. Again, the effect on the games and mood was profound:

US athletes got showcased on their home soil in prime time
The US now wins unprecedented numbers of medals: who cares if it was against second-tier opposition?
US seen as ascendant, with the Russians seen as petty and impotent
Wave of patriotic feel-good fervor envelops the country, propelling Reagan to a second term

I don't see any of the more recent Olympic games having had so much of an impact on elections. There are several possibilities on how Beijing could play in, however

Appeals to national pride and patriotism tend to favor Republicans
Creates a fitting venue for Obama's "yes we can" feel-good change commercials while making "attack" commercials seem petty: this will favor the front-runner
The multicultural/high minority representation on the US Olympic team will highlight Obama's multiracial background and show minorities as patriotic Americans, making Obama's background less frightening.
If China cleans our clock in high-profile competitions and overall medal counts, it would reinforce the notion of the US in decline under Bush and the need for change
questions of Chinese human rights, Tibet, democracy, and protest are sure to come up. I'm not sure if this will play--no distinct advantage for either side.

Are there other thoughts out there? Will the Olympics boost one or the other candidate, and how much?

WildCat · 26th July 2008, 08:37 AM

Unless there's a terrorist attack targeting Americans it won't make a bit of difference.

chipmunk stew · 26th July 2008, 08:52 AM

Originally Posted by WildCat

Unless there's a terrorist attack targeting Americans it won't make a bit of difference.

I disagree. It will indirectly benefit Obama, who is taking advantage of all the American eyes who will be watching by putting up campaign ads during the Games, as in gdnp's possibility #2.

gdnp · 27th July 2008, 10:32 PM

I tend to agree. Obama's youth, optimism, and internationalism would seem to resonate better with the "Olympic spirit" than McCain's message, which seems to be "stay the course in Iraq" and "Obama bad".

26th July 2008, 08:23 AM	#1
gdnp useless idiot Join Date: May 2008 Location: New Jersey-You gotta problem wit dat? Posts: 4,999	Beijing Olympics: any effect on the election? How, if at all, will the 2008 Beijing Olympics effect the 2008 presidential campaign? The Olympic games have been used for political purposes throughout history, with Hitler's Berlin olympics the poster child, but I believe that olympic games have also played a significant role in two more recent presidential races. During the 1980 election campaign Jimmy Carter boycotted the Moscow Olympics in protest of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. This did several things: It demonstrated US impotence to a Soviet military challenge It allowed Moscow a propaganda coup by winning unprecedented numbers of medals It pissed off a bunch of "sports heros" who had trained for years for one shot at glory and then had it yanked away so an impotent president could make a "statement" The overall effect was to paint the picture of America as weak, powerless, petty, incapable of leading the free world. And Carter got creamed in the election. Fast forward 4 years with Reagan in power. It is often forgotten that he was not particularly popular during the first half of his first term, with approval ratings dropping from 70% just after inauguration to just under 40% after 2 years while the country was in recession. Then the Russians did him a big favor: they decided to boycott the 1984 LA Olympics, bringing 13 eastern bloc allies with them, including perennial power East Germany. Again, the effect on the games and mood was profound: US athletes got showcased on their home soil in prime time The US now wins unprecedented numbers of medals: who cares if it was against second-tier opposition? US seen as ascendant, with the Russians seen as petty and impotent Wave of patriotic feel-good fervor envelops the country, propelling Reagan to a second term I don't see any of the more recent Olympic games having had so much of an impact on elections. There are several possibilities on how Beijing could play in, however Appeals to national pride and patriotism tend to favor Republicans Creates a fitting venue for Obama's "yes we can" feel-good change commercials while making "attack" commercials seem petty: this will favor the front-runner The multicultural/high minority representation on the US Olympic team will highlight Obama's multiracial background and show minorities as patriotic Americans, making Obama's background less frightening. If China cleans our clock in high-profile competitions and overall medal counts, it would reinforce the notion of the US in decline under Bush and the need for change questions of Chinese human rights, Tibet, democracy, and protest are sure to come up. I'm not sure if this will play--no distinct advantage for either side. Are there other thoughts out there? Will the Olympics boost one or the other candidate, and how much?

26th July 2008, 08:52 AM	#3
chipmunk stew The Spikey Mace of Love and Mercy Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: SE PA Posts: 7,465	Originally Posted by WildCat Unless there's a terrorist attack targeting Americans it won't make a bit of difference. I disagree. It will indirectly benefit Obama, who is taking advantage of all the American eyes who will be watching by putting up campaign ads during the Games, as in gdnp's possibility #2.
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26th July 2008, 08:37 AM	#2
WildCat NWO Master Conspirator Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Albany Park, Chicago Posts: 48,983	Unless there's a terrorist attack targeting Americans it won't make a bit of difference.

27th July 2008, 10:32 PM	#4
gdnp useless idiot Join Date: May 2008 Location: New Jersey-You gotta problem wit dat? Posts: 4,999	I tend to agree. Obama's youth, optimism, and internationalism would seem to resonate better with the "Olympic spirit" than McCain's message, which seems to be "stay the course in Iraq" and "Obama bad".