Are there any polls which reach the young urban demographic at all?

[BenBurch]

I'm talking about the 18-35 urban dwellers who have no landline telephones.

I can only think of one, the Zogby online poll, but that has issues as it is self-selecting and there have been partisan recruitment drives to get people to join it.

Any others?

[Pookster]

Gallup calls cellphones. I'm sure some other polls do too. They just can't use an auto-dialer when calling cellphones.

[XBoxWarrior]

Originally Posted by Pookster

Gallup calls cellphones. I'm sure some other polls do too. They just can't use an auto-dialer when calling cellphones.

I totally get the jest of this OP argument...but there are many folks who have "saved" their number from ATT for their cell phones.

They can call any number they want...I just wish they would call my land line?

The whole pre-fix number thing is falling away fast, but I agree that the number of grey hairs with land lines are getting the brunt of the calls. (if not the brunt of the willing answerers)

The polls don't actually reflect the electoral college state of our nation...and the networks don't report that Obama is winning that race...Sad

[ProbeX]

Originally Posted by Pookster

Gallup calls cellphones. I'm sure some other polls do too. They just can't use an auto-dialer when calling cellphones.

Most still don't. Rasmussen certainly doesn't.

Also, most pollsters are calling during early eve, when young people are out and McCain's senior peers are in.

[geni]

They don't generaly vote so who cares what they think?

[leftysergeant]

Originally Posted by geni

They don't generaly vote so who cares what they think?

Normally, they don't attend party caucuses, either. At mine, the average age was about 25, and there were people older than I am there.

[geni]

Originally Posted by leftysergeant

Normally, they don't attend party caucuses, either. At mine, the average age was about 25, and there were people older than I am there.

If they do vote on any significant level that means a large voteing block who you can't model at all which means ability to predict drops significantly.

[TheChadd]

The way they model it is by taking the few people in their demographic who do have land lines and then they make their numbers larger based on expected turnout of that general demographic. This exact same theory was touted fairly often on the Ron Paul forums... unfortunately while they might be slightly off due to the need to guess how many are likely to turn out in that demographic, it's not as if they just ignore them completely because they can't get hold of many of them.

[Pookster]

Originally Posted by ProbeX

Most still don't. Rasmussen certainly doesn't.

Also, most pollsters are calling during early eve, when young people are out and McCain's senior peers are in.

Rasmussen can't because they use an auto-dialer. Some of the polls that don't do attempt to account for cell phones in other ways, as TheChadd discusses.

Polls are generally from early to late evening too (5pm-9pm). And your generalization/stereotype of young people being out is likely not very accurate either. Yes, they are likely more so than older folks, but the generalization is rather exaggerated, IMO.

[ProbeX]

Originally Posted by Pookster

Rasmussen can't because they use an auto-dialer. Some of the polls that don't do attempt to account for cell phones in other ways, as TheChadd discusses.

Polls are generally from early to late evening too (5pm-9pm). And your generalization/stereotype of young people being out is likely not very accurate either. Yes, they are likely more so than older folks, but the generalization is rather exaggerated, IMO.

And those methods are based on "guestimations", it's not a science. That leaves room for inconsistencies that translate into a misrepresentation of particular voting blocs (like the youth vote).

How is it likely that I'm wrong in observing that young people, more than older people, tend to be out during evening hours? LOL

The election results should be interesting this year.

[ProbeX]

Originally Posted by geni

They don't generaly vote so who cares what they think?

True, they generally don't. This year is different. Observe the primaries.

[Pookster]

Originally Posted by ProbeX

And those methods are based on "guestimations", it's not a science. That leaves room for inconsistencies that translate into a misrepresentation of particular voting blocs (like the youth vote).

You're oversimplying this. Their "guesses" are rooted in math and statistics.

Originally Posted by ProbeX

How is it likely that I'm wrong in observing that young people, more than older people, tend to be out during evening hours? LOL

You didn't say "tend" ...

Quote:

... most pollsters are calling during early eve, when young people are out and McCain's senior peers are in.

Yes, they likely tend to be. I even stated so in my post ...

Quote:

Yes, they are likely more so than older folks, but the generalization is rather exaggerated, IMO.

But many poll organizations take such things into account too. It's not an exact science, but that's why they calculate confidence levels and margins of error.

[ProbeX]

Originally Posted by Pookster

You're oversimplying this. Their "guesses" are rooted in math and statistics.

They are still guesses, and therefore, there's no way around the fact that these polls can be, and often are, not a true representation of reality.

Quote:

Yes, they likely tend to be. ...

They do tend to be. And if there "guestimations" are off, then it's quite possible the youth vote is being calculated incorrectly. Methodology that's based on guesses (whether they be mathematical or astrological) are still guesses. There is still room for oft considerable error. If you look at past campaign results (trends), you will see that they can vary considerably when matched w election outcomes, even with the "science" they implore.