How does the current financial crisis affect the Challenge funds?

alfaniner · 22nd September 2008, 07:23 AM

Seeing as the Challenge funds are currently in negotiable bonds at Goldman-Sachs, and hearing the news about all the bank buyouts, what does this mean for the million dollars? I know the Challenge will be retired soon, but I was wondering what would happen if the current value of the bonds falls below the million dollar level.

petre · 22nd September 2008, 07:56 AM

Originally Posted by alfaniner

Seeing as the Challenge funds are currently in negotiable bonds at Goldman-Sachs, and hearing the news about all the bank buyouts, what does this mean for the million dollars? I know the Challenge will be retired soon, but I was wondering what would happen if the current value of the bonds falls below the million dollar level.

Bonds aren't like stocks in that their values go up and down based on value estimated by buyers and sellers. They are more like a loan made to a financial entity in return for interest paid over time (similar to a savings account).

These are unusual economic times though, and since G-S has made the news recently I suppose one could suggest $900,000 of the prize money is at the risk of them becomming extremely illiquid forcing the FDIC to take over and possibly only making $100,000 of total available should the prize be awarded. Even given the recent news this seems unlikely (don't take my word for it though, feel free to research the matter more deeply and it may be more likely than I seem to claim here).

Perhaps the money would be safer in 10 seperate $100,000 FDIC insured accounts, but what 9 other banks would you put your money in if you were really concerned G-S would fold?

Startz · 22nd September 2008, 08:09 AM

Originally Posted by petre

Bonds aren't like stocks in that their values go up and down based on value estimated by buyers and sellers. They are more like a loan made to a financial entity in return for interest paid over time (similar to a savings account).

These are unusual economic times though, and since G-S has made the news recently I suppose one could suggest $900,000 of the prize money is at the risk of them becomming extremely illiquid forcing the FDIC to take over and possibly only making $100,000 of total available should the prize be awarded. Even given the recent news this seems unlikely (don't take my word for it though, feel free to research the matter more deeply and it may be more likely than I seem to claim here).

Perhaps the money would be safer in 10 seperate $100,000 FDIC insured accounts, but what 9 other banks would you put your money in if you were really concerned G-S would fold?

Goldman Sachs isn't a bank. I believe none of the money is FDIC insured. The JREF statement doesn't give details of how the money is invested.

Unless the assets invested in are particularly vulnerable, the likelihood of the value falling below one million is very, very low. I wouldn't worry too much about someone winning the challenge and JREF having to delay payment.

Moochie · 22nd September 2008, 09:52 AM

The Professor wins the MDC and has to accept an IOU.

M.

Jeff Wagg · 22nd September 2008, 08:09 PM

The money is very conservatively invested, and is quite safe. There is more than enough in the account to pay the million should we need to.

a_unique_person · 22nd September 2008, 08:31 PM

Not to imply any incompetence or deception on the part of Randi or the JREF, but many NGO's and Councils in Australia thought they had money invested in AAA rated funds, only to find the AAA rating was no longer AAA when the crises hit. These funds were supposed to be as conservative as you could get, these bodies were only allowed to invest in A rated or better, and they still lost money.

rjh01 · 23rd September 2008, 12:26 AM

"very conservatively invested, and is quite safe" This can only mean they are invested in the government. This is about the only organization that cannot go bankrupt. Anything less and money could be lost.

The Professor · 23rd September 2008, 09:26 AM

Originally Posted by Moochie

The Professor wins the MDC and has to accept an IOU.

M.

YIKES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I knew it

biomorph · 23rd September 2008, 11:51 PM

According to BBC Radio 4 this morning in the UK Warren Buffett (sp?) is allegedly about to purchase $5bn of Goldman Sach shares, he probably thinks they are at least safe enough to invest in.

The Professor · 28th September 2008, 08:06 AM

Where are we on this? I started a discussion on this problem SEVEN WEEKS AGO before anyone else thought of it. And BEFORE the big slide!
Here is the thread... It starts about six posts down.
http://www.themagiccafe.com/forums/v...=251&start=150

With MY 401K looking like a 201K I wonder how much of the Million is left?
Is the MDC now the $768,899 Challenge?

chillzero · 28th September 2008, 09:21 AM

Jeff already answered you in your challenge thread, that there is more than $1m in the account.

The Professor · 28th September 2008, 10:13 AM

Where's the link that once existed as proof?

Startz · 28th September 2008, 02:48 PM

Originally Posted by The Professor

Where's the link that once existed as proof?

http://www.randi.org/challenge/goldmansachs.pdf

This is reachable in two-clicks from the JREF main web page.

The Professor · 28th September 2008, 09:44 PM

Originally Posted by Startz

http://www.randi.org/challenge/goldmansachs.pdf

This is reachable in two-clicks from the JREF main web page.

Thanks!
This is an update from the previous one I believe, however a newer one would show the current trend in the market.
Is there a link to something "Current" since the market problems have arisen?

Inquiring minds want to know

shadron · 29th September 2008, 12:34 AM

Originally Posted by The Professor

Thanks!
This is an update from the previous one I believe, however a newer one would show the current trend in the market.
Is there a link to something "Current" since the market problems have arisen?

Inquiring minds want to know

It is dated Aug 31, 2008. I guess you'll have to wait until Thursday + smail-mail + website update time for the next, none of which entities owe you or me a favor. Think you can hold your britches for that long?

I predict the sum will have increased, my personal opinion. As stated above, while stocks are a share of a company's assets, a bond is a promissory note. It would seem that the former would be more stable (what company looses all it's assets, whereas companies default on loans more often than fail), but the opposite is the case. Defaulting on bonds will quickly put a company legally out of business via forced bankruptcy, while stock prices go up and down on whims. Further, if the company does fail, secured bond repayment comes well before final asset computation and reimbursement (even before owed employee compensation). Further, it looks like half of the binds are the USG's own.

You could, of course, read the pdf and do your own day-to-day estimates of the fund's current worth. It could be called the Unhatched Egg Study. Do have fun.

The Professor · 29th September 2008, 04:59 PM

Originally Posted by alfaniner

Seeing as the Challenge funds are currently in negotiable bonds at Goldman-Sachs, and hearing the news about all the bank buyouts, what does this mean for the million dollars? I know the Challenge will be retired soon, but I was wondering what would happen if the current value of the bonds falls below the million dollar level.

No one has really answered this yet.

fromdownunder · 29th September 2008, 06:19 PM

TP, I can answer the question. If the current value of the Bonds falls below One Million Dollars, they will no longer be worth One Million Dollars.

What do I win?

Norm

Thabiguy · 29th September 2008, 07:16 PM

Originally Posted by The Professor

No one has really answered this yet.

Why do you keep making such false statements?

Of course this has been answered. Repeatedly.

Question #1: How did the current financial crisis affect the million dollars?
Answer:

Originally Posted by Jeff Wagg

I checked the challenge account at Goldman Sachs and it contains well over the amount required for the challenge.

Question #2: What happens if the value of the bonds falls below the million dollars?
Answer:

Originally Posted by Jeff Wagg

We guarantee the million, even if the account falls below a million. There's doesn't appear to much chance of that at this point. If you win, you get $1,000,000 from us, regardless of the amount in the account.

As anyone of sound mind can see, 100% of the OP has been answered.

The Professor · 30th September 2008, 01:16 PM

Originally Posted by fromdownunder

TP, I can answer the question. If the current value of the Bonds falls below One Million Dollars, they will no longer be worth One Million Dollars.

What do I win?

Norm

Just got a gig in The Land Down Under, so I will buy you ten Pints of Beer!!!!!
(When I get there this March) Congratulations.

(I'm not kidding!)

I know Jeff says that the JREF will pay it but they can't if they don't HAVE IT. (Critical thinking here)
If it fall below $1,000,000 will they change the name or call the Carson estate?

Azrael 5 · 30th September 2008, 01:43 PM

Originally Posted by The Professor

Just got a gig in The Land Down Under, so I will buy you ten Pints of Beer!!!!!
(When I get there this March) Congratulations.

(I'm not kidding!)

I know Jeff says that the JREF will pay it but they can't if they don't HAVE IT. (Critical thinking here)
If it fall below $1,000,000 will they change the name or call the Carson estate?

*Takes deep breath*

Are you unable to comprehend simple statements.If the rules state you win a million dollars,that's what you win.
But all this is so premature for reasons I can't state in this thread.

The Professor · 30th September 2008, 01:52 PM

I can't win what you don't have

I can make rules all day that say whatever I want but that doesn't mean I've got a Million to back them up.
The rules don't create money that is already down the drain.

chillzero · 30th September 2008, 01:59 PM

Well, then, it's really just as well that they have more than enough, isn't it, as Jeff and others have already explained.

I don't really see the point in prolonging this thread.

Modesty78 · 30th September 2008, 02:02 PM

Originally Posted by The Professor

I can't win what you don't have

I can make rules all day that say whatever I want but that doesn't mean I've got a Million to back them up.
The rules don't create money that is already down the drain.

Is it feasible that JREF has other money than the ones mentioned in the .pdf?

Is it also feasible, considering Jeff Wagg has apparently stated as much, that should aforementioned bonds become worth less than 1 million dollars, JREF will provide proof of other liquid assets?

The answers to both questions are obviously yes, and considering Jeff said as much, it it more than feasible, it is very likely.

Brian-M · 30th September 2008, 02:14 PM

Originally Posted by The Professor

I can't win what you don't have

I can make rules all day that say whatever I want but that doesn't mean I've got a Million to back them up.
The rules don't create money that is already down the drain.

If the unthinkable happens, and the bonds become worthless and you win the million dollars, then JREF still has to pay you the money, either in installments from it's income, or by declaring bankruptcy and selling it's assets.

Of course, the chances of the bonds becoming worth less than the million dollars is only slightly less improbable than you passing the preliminary test.

The Professor · 30th September 2008, 02:57 PM

Originally Posted by Modesty78

Is it feasible that JREF has other money than the ones mentioned in the .pdf?

Is it also feasible, considering Jeff Wagg has apparently stated as much, that should aforementioned bonds become worth less than 1 million dollars, JREF will provide proof of other liquid assets?

The answers to both questions are obviously yes, and considering Jeff said as much, it it more than feasible, it is very likely.

All documentation of assets of the JREF must be available to the general public as they are a Not For Profit group. Hiding money is illegal.

Azrael 5 · 30th September 2008, 03:09 PM

Originally Posted by The Professor

All documentation of assets of the JREF must be available to the general public as they are a Not For Profit group. Hiding money is illegal.

Well Im sure Randi can just run up a few bills if there's a short fall.

The Professor · 30th September 2008, 07:46 PM

Made me Laugh!!!!

shadron · 30th September 2008, 08:46 PM

Originally Posted by The Professor

All documentation of assets of the JREF must be available to the general public as they are a Not For Profit group. Hiding money is illegal.

I would like to see this assertion backed up. I've done some looking in Wikipedia and at About.com, and can find no blanket disclosure requirement for non-profits, at either state or national levels.

MattC · 30th September 2008, 11:28 PM

Originally Posted by alfaniner

Seeing as the Challenge funds are currently in negotiable bonds at Goldman-Sachs, and hearing the news about all the bank buyouts, what does this mean for the million dollars? I know the Challenge will be retired soon, but I was wondering what would happen if the current value of the bonds falls below the million dollar level.

Originally Posted by The Professor

No one has really answered this yet.

I am going to set out to do so and beg you or anyone else who still has questions when I am finished to either ask in this thread or PM me all questions that may remain.

I fear that the initial question has been perverted throughout most of the thread. Instead of asking "what will become of the money?" (which is answered about as well as can be expected by Jeff Wagg, while the JREF's documents showing that the money is invested at Goldman Sachs are public, Goldman Sachs' documentation of how exactly the money is invested is understandably not. Startz' opinion upon this matter is probably the most accurate one proffered by a non-employee, Startz is generally right when he speaks), it has become "can the money be paid if won?"

The answer to this question is determined by the nature of the contract stipulated between the JREF and the applicant. Viewing the rules of the application, it is perhaps most significant to note this:

Originally Posted by Challenge Application

I, James Randi, through the JREF, will pay US$1,000,000 [One Million Dollars/US] to any person who can demonstrate any psychic, supernatural or paranormal ability under satisfactory observing conditions.

Mind you, this paragraph in no way specifies where the money will come from - considering the changeable nature of the markets (as we've witnessed, reversals can come quickly), this is the best way to go. Wisely the JREF has set up a primary account for the purpose of paying out this money (to put this more into the purview of most of the forum readers, a business that repairs computers would have an expense account set up labeled 'parts', whenever they buy new computer parts to repair computers with, they take the money from this account if it's possible) where the million can safely reside.

However, in no way does this lack of specificity in the nature of the payment serve as an out for the JREF to avoid paying - in fact, quite the opposite. If the contract stated, for example, that the million dollars would be paid from the JREF challenge account, then the applicant would be forced to take whatever amount happened to be in the account at the time of winning, regardless of whether or not it was less or more than a million (one could argue that a "million dollar challenge" that doesn't have a million dollars as a prize is a deliberate misdirection in court, but there are many viable defenses to this claim that could be used to reobtain most of that million if employed properly).

Indeed, according to the terms of the contract now, if the money in the prize account should be below one million dollars at the time of someone winning, then the JREF would be forced to make up the difference somehow - how they do this really isn't an issue so long as they do. As an example, say if the prize funds dipped to exactly $990,000 - ten thousand dollars less than the million required when the money was claimed. The JREF would then be required to make up the remaining ten thousand from any legal avenue - taking out a short-term loan, for example, for the ten thousand would certainly work. Selling office furniture or used computers would be another way to raise the money. The contract in its current state is more advantageous to the applicant than it is to the JREF for these reasons.

Originally Posted by Startz

Goldman Sachs isn't a bank. I believe none of the money is FDIC insured. The JREF statement doesn't give details about how the money is invested.

The banking arm of Goldman Sachs (called, conveniently, "Goldman Sachs Bank") is a member of the FDIC (certification number 57485), but the money is not held at Goldman Sachs Bank so far as I can see, so no it is not FDIC-insured. FDIC regulations only insure quote-unquote "deposit accounts", a complete list of which can be found at http://www.fdic.gov/consumers/consum.../fdiciorn.html along with a list of what they do not insure, also described at the same convenient address. As the JREF's money is in bond form, it would not qualify to be insured by the FDIC at all.

How the money is invested is covered in the statement in a very general form (under the heading "Portfolio Asset Allocation"), but information on how the money is currently being managed (as the JREF has effectively subcontracted Goldman Sachs to do this for them) is proprietary to Goldman Sachs and not to the JREF. Getting this information from Goldman Sachs would most probably require a subpoena from a judge, which would require you to prove that the information was both necessary and relevant.

Originally Posted by shadron

I would like to see this assertion backed up.

It's enforced through the IRS, hence why neither Wikipedia nor About knew much about it. Try searching for "transparency" instead of "disclosure", it got me closer to the crux of the matter. Essentially, it's the IRS making public the 990 forms of non-profit organizations. I think both sites you mentioned got confused by the word "disclosure", it seems to imply that the NPO itself was disclosing this information (many of them do upon qualified request) instead of the IRS.

I was able to find the JREF's 990 form through GuideStar for the 2007 year, it clearly lists and defines the financial status of the JREF throughout the 2007 year. The information is there for those desiring to find it.

------------------------------

If there are any further questions, please leave them in the thread or shoot them to me via PM.

~ MattC

The Professor · 1st October 2008, 05:28 PM

Originally Posted by shadron

I would like to see this assertion backed up. I've done some looking in Wikipedia and at About.com, and can find no blanket disclosure requirement for non-profits, at either state or national levels.

If either of you'd view tha DragonCon exposure video you would have seen Randi say that ALL of his records are open to the public. It's a statement he likes to make and in fact a Not for Profit can NOT have secret books!

Thanks for all of the verification

Pantaz · 1st October 2008, 05:56 PM

Originally Posted by The Professor

If either of you'd view tha DragonCon exposure video you would have seen Randi say that ALL of his records are open to the public. It's a statement he likes to make and in fact a Not for Profit can NOT have secret books!

Thanks for all of the verification

Have you been denied access to any records?

The Professor · 1st October 2008, 06:18 PM

Originally Posted by Pantaz

Have you been denied access to any records?

Not yet

But I do want to know if it's still the Million Dollar Challenge (Don't want to bounce any checks

)
Someone mentioned that there might be a new "Statement' tomorrow. Am I correct in this?

Pantaz · 1st October 2008, 11:58 PM

You appear to have some kind of selective reading comprehension difficulty. Jeff Wagg himself has twice answered the question of the status of the MDC funds:

Originally Posted by Jeff Wagg, 22nd September 2008, 08:09 PM

The money is very conservatively invested, and is quite safe. There is more than enough in the account to pay the million should we need to.

Originally Posted by Jeff Wagg, 25th September 2008, 04:21 PM

For the record, I checked the challenge account at Goldman Sachs and it contains well over the amount required for the challenge.

Why do you continue to infer all manner of wrong-doing by the JREF and James Randi?

steenkh · 2nd October 2008, 02:48 AM

Originally Posted by The Professor

Not yet

But I do want to know if it's still the Million Dollar Challenge (Don't want to bounce any checks

)
Someone mentioned that there might be a new "Statement' tomorrow. Am I correct in this?

Why does this actually bother you? Winning the Million Dollar Challenge will in any case catapult you to untold heights of fame with all the profit-earning opportunities you can imagine! You could probably make a fortune just out being the one who busted the JREF and James Randi financially, even if you only got a fragment of the promised prize sum.

DevilsAdvocate · 2nd October 2008, 02:54 AM

Originally Posted by The Professor

But I do want to know if it's still the Million Dollar Challenge.

It is. Jeff confirmed that. And the year is still 2008. And the sun is still warm. And two is still less than four.

You will be notified, or you can easily check, if any of these things have changed.

Sit back. Relax. Dream about a million dollars. Kick off your shoes. Work up a protocol.

The Professor · 2nd October 2008, 04:02 PM

Originally Posted by DevilsAdvocate

It is. Jeff confirmed that. And the year is still 2008. And the sun is still warm. And two is still less than four.

You will be notified, or you can easily check, if any of these things have changed.

Sit back. Relax. Dream about a million dollars. Kick off your shoes. Work up a protocol.

I will take your advice and grab some Sailor Jerry's Rum!!!!!
.... And Dream of Treasure here in the Florida Sunshine

BTW ...I have a protocol. I always have.
How did anyone miss it? Perhaps no one is actually reading what I've written?
I think that most have spent so much time on the "bashing" that they've missed what has been said.

jenski · 2nd October 2008, 04:24 PM

Originally Posted by Pantaz
Have you been denied access to any records?

Originally Posted by The Professor

Not yet

But I do want to know if it's still the Million Dollar Challenge (Don't want to bounce any checks

)
Someone mentioned that there might be a new "Statement' tomorrow. Am I correct in this?

Not yet as in your request has not been denied or Not yet as in you haven't actually asked for them?

The Professor · 2nd October 2008, 06:13 PM

Originally Posted by jenski

Originally Posted by Pantaz
Have you been denied access to any records?

Not yet as in your request has not been denied or Not yet as in you haven't actually asked for them?

I have received no records yet. OK?

I was told that TODAY would be the day they posted something current on the JREF Forum to show that they still had the money.
I don't see it?

Chris H · 2nd October 2008, 09:28 PM

I think you're concerning yourself with something that is not particularly relevant. One has to produce evidence of a paranormal ability or event to be awarded the million dollars. You are capable of neither, so it is of no concern to you.

Chris

MattC · 2nd October 2008, 11:18 PM

Originally Posted by The Professor

I have received no records yet. OK?

Ask (Google) and ye shall receive, my son. Wait, and thy time shall pass thee by.

~ Matt

22nd September 2008, 07:23 AM	#1
alfaniner Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Sorth Dakonsin Posts: 11,382	How does the current financial crisis affect the Challenge funds? Seeing as the Challenge funds are currently in negotiable bonds at Goldman-Sachs, and hearing the news about all the bank buyouts, what does this mean for the million dollars? I know the Challenge will be retired soon, but I was wondering what would happen if the current value of the bonds falls below the million dollar level.
	__________________ Science doesn't lie.

22nd September 2008, 09:52 AM	#4
Moochie Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 5,495	The Professor wins the MDC and has to accept an IOU. M.
Moochie Philosopher Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 5,495	__________________

22nd September 2008, 08:31 PM	#6
a_unique_person Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Mt Disappointment Posts: 33,326	Not to imply any incompetence or deception on the part of Randi or the JREF, but many NGO's and Councils in Australia thought they had money invested in AAA rated funds, only to find the AAA rating was no longer AAA when the crises hit. These funds were supposed to be as conservative as you could get, these bodies were only allowed to invest in A rated or better, and they still lost money.
	__________________ *Continually pushing the boundaries of mediocrity.* Everything is possible, but not everything is probable. For if a man pretend to me that God hath spoken to him supernaturally, and immediately, and I make doubt of it, I cannot easily perceive what argument he can produce to oblige me to believe it. Hobbes

23rd September 2008, 09:26 AM	#8
The Professor Banned Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 721	Originally Posted by Moochie The Professor wins the MDC and has to accept an IOU. M. YIKES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I knew it
The Professor Banned Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 721

28th September 2008, 08:06 AM	#10
The Professor Banned Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 721	Where are we on this? I started a discussion on this problem SEVEN WEEKS AGO before anyone else thought of it. And BEFORE the big slide! Here is the thread... It starts about six posts down. http://www.themagiccafe.com/forums/v...=251&start=150 With MY 401K looking like a 201K I wonder how much of the Million is left? Is the MDC now the $768,899 Challenge?
The Professor Banned Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 721

22nd September 2008, 07:56 AM	#2
petre Muse Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 887	Originally Posted by alfaniner Seeing as the Challenge funds are currently in negotiable bonds at Goldman-Sachs, and hearing the news about all the bank buyouts, what does this mean for the million dollars? I know the Challenge will be retired soon, but I was wondering what would happen if the current value of the bonds falls below the million dollar level. Bonds aren't like stocks in that their values go up and down based on value estimated by buyers and sellers. They are more like a loan made to a financial entity in return for interest paid over time (similar to a savings account). These are unusual economic times though, and since G-S has made the news recently I suppose one could suggest $900,000 of the prize money is at the risk of them becomming extremely illiquid forcing the FDIC to take over and possibly only making $100,000 of total available should the prize be awarded. Even given the recent news this seems unlikely (don't take my word for it though, feel free to research the matter more deeply and it may be more likely than I seem to claim here). Perhaps the money would be safer in 10 seperate $100,000 FDIC insured accounts, but what 9 other banks would you put your money in if you were really concerned G-S would fold?
petre Muse Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 887

22nd September 2008, 08:09 AM	#3
Startz Critical Thinker Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Santa Barbara, CA Posts: 388	Originally Posted by petre Bonds aren't like stocks in that their values go up and down based on value estimated by buyers and sellers. They are more like a loan made to a financial entity in return for interest paid over time (similar to a savings account). These are unusual economic times though, and since G-S has made the news recently I suppose one could suggest $900,000 of the prize money is at the risk of them becomming extremely illiquid forcing the FDIC to take over and possibly only making $100,000 of total available should the prize be awarded. Even given the recent news this seems unlikely (don't take my word for it though, feel free to research the matter more deeply and it may be more likely than I seem to claim here). Perhaps the money would be safer in 10 seperate $100,000 FDIC insured accounts, but what 9 other banks would you put your money in if you were really concerned G-S would fold? Goldman Sachs isn't a bank. I believe none of the money is FDIC insured. The JREF statement doesn't give details of how the money is invested. Unless the assets invested in are particularly vulnerable, the likelihood of the value falling below one million is very, very low. I wouldn't worry too much about someone winning the challenge and JREF having to delay payment.

22nd September 2008, 08:09 PM	#5
Jeff Wagg Eponymous Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Chicago Posts: 3,052	The money is very conservatively invested, and is quite safe. There is more than enough in the account to pay the million should we need to.

23rd September 2008, 12:26 AM	#7
rjh01 Gentleman of leisure Tagger Join Date: May 2005 Location: Planet Earth Posts: 17,183	"very conservatively invested, and is quite safe" This can only mean they are invested in the government. This is about the only organization that cannot go bankrupt. Anything less and money could be lost.

23rd September 2008, 11:51 PM	#9
biomorph Muse Join Date: May 2007 Location: here, and sometimes elsewhere Posts: 866	According to BBC Radio 4 this morning in the UK Warren Buffett (sp?) is allegedly about to purchase $5bn of Goldman Sach shares, he probably thinks they are at least safe enough to invest in.

28th September 2008, 09:21 AM	#11
chillzero Domestic Godless Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Top of the world, ma! Posts: 15,230	Jeff already answered you in your challenge thread, that there is more than $1m in the account.

28th September 2008, 10:13 AM	#12
The Professor Banned Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 721	Where's the link that once existed as proof?
The Professor Banned Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 721

28th September 2008, 02:48 PM	#13
Startz Critical Thinker Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Santa Barbara, CA Posts: 388	Originally Posted by The Professor Where's the link that once existed as proof? http://www.randi.org/challenge/goldmansachs.pdf This is reachable in two-clicks from the JREF main web page.

28th September 2008, 09:44 PM	#14
The Professor Banned Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 721	Originally Posted by Startz http://www.randi.org/challenge/goldmansachs.pdf This is reachable in two-clicks from the JREF main web page. Thanks! This is an update from the previous one I believe, however a newer one would show the current trend in the market. Is there a link to something "Current" since the market problems have arisen? Inquiring minds want to know
The Professor Banned Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 721

29th September 2008, 12:34 AM	#15
shadron Philosopher Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Colorado Posts: 5,719	Originally Posted by The Professor Thanks! This is an update from the previous one I believe, however a newer one would show the current trend in the market. Is there a link to something "Current" since the market problems have arisen? Inquiring minds want to know It is dated Aug 31, 2008. I guess you'll have to wait until Thursday + smail-mail + website update time for the next, none of which entities owe you or me a favor. Think you can hold your britches for that long? I predict the sum will have increased, my personal opinion. As stated above, while stocks are a share of a company's assets, a bond is a promissory note. It would seem that the former would be more stable (what company looses all it's assets, whereas companies default on loans more often than fail), but the opposite is the case. Defaulting on bonds will quickly put a company legally out of business via forced bankruptcy, while stock prices go up and down on whims. Further, if the company does fail, secured bond repayment comes well before final asset computation and reimbursement (even before owed employee compensation). Further, it looks like half of the binds are the USG's own. You could, of course, read the pdf and do your own day-to-day estimates of the fund's current worth. It could be called the Unhatched Egg Study. Do have fun.
	Last edited by shadron; 29th September 2008 at 12:41 AM.

29th September 2008, 04:59 PM	#16
The Professor Banned Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 721	Originally Posted by alfaniner Seeing as the Challenge funds are currently in negotiable bonds at Goldman-Sachs, and hearing the news about all the bank buyouts, what does this mean for the million dollars? I know the Challenge will be retired soon, but I was wondering what would happen if the current value of the bonds falls below the million dollar level. No one has really answered this yet.
The Professor Banned Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 721

29th September 2008, 06:19 PM	#17
fromdownunder Illuminator Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 3,091	TP, I can answer the question. If the current value of the Bonds falls below One Million Dollars, they will no longer be worth One Million Dollars. What do I win? Norm

29th September 2008, 07:16 PM	#18
Thabiguy Muse Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 783	Originally Posted by The Professor No one has really answered this yet. Why do you keep making such false statements? Of course this has been answered. Repeatedly. Question #1: How did the current financial crisis affect the million dollars? Answer: Originally Posted by Jeff Wagg I checked the challenge account at Goldman Sachs and it contains well over the amount required for the challenge. Question #2: What happens if the value of the bonds falls below the million dollars? Answer: Originally Posted by Jeff Wagg We guarantee the million, even if the account falls below a million. There's doesn't appear to much chance of that at this point. If you win, you get $1,000,000 from us, regardless of the amount in the account. As anyone of sound mind can see, 100% of the OP has been answered.
Thabiguy Muse Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 783

30th September 2008, 01:16 PM	#19
The Professor Banned Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 721	Originally Posted by fromdownunder TP, I can answer the question. If the current value of the Bonds falls below One Million Dollars, they will no longer be worth One Million Dollars. What do I win? Norm Just got a gig in The Land Down Under, so I will buy you ten Pints of Beer!!!!! (When I get there this March) Congratulations. (I'm not kidding!) I know Jeff says that the JREF will pay it but they can't if they don't HAVE IT. (Critical thinking here) If it fall below $1,000,000 will they change the name or call the Carson estate?
The Professor Banned Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 721	Last edited by The Professor; 30th September 2008 at 01:19 PM.

30th September 2008, 01:43 PM	#20
Azrael 5 Philosopher Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Yorkshire,Uk Posts: 5,029	Originally Posted by The Professor Just got a gig in The Land Down Under, so I will buy you ten Pints of Beer!!!!! (When I get there this March) Congratulations. (I'm not kidding!) I know Jeff says that the JREF will pay it but they can't if they don't HAVE IT. (Critical thinking here) If it fall below $1,000,000 will they change the name or call the Carson estate? Takes deep breath Are you unable to comprehend simple statements.If the rules state you win a million dollars,that's what you win. But all this is so premature for reasons I can't state in this thread.
	__________________ "I achieve these results through a mixture of magic,misdirection,suggestion and showmanship"-Derren Brown

30th September 2008, 01:52 PM	#21
The Professor Banned Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 721	I can't win what you don't have I can make rules all day that say whatever I want but that doesn't mean I've got a Million to back them up. The rules don't create money that is already down the drain.
The Professor Banned Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 721	Last edited by The Professor; 30th September 2008 at 01:54 PM.

30th September 2008, 01:59 PM	#22
chillzero Domestic Godless Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Top of the world, ma! Posts: 15,230	Well, then, it's really just as well that they have more than enough, isn't it, as Jeff and others have already explained. I don't really see the point in prolonging this thread.

30th September 2008, 02:02 PM	#23
Modesty78 Student Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: Denmark Posts: 25	Originally Posted by The Professor I can't win what you don't have I can make rules all day that say whatever I want but that doesn't mean I've got a Million to back them up. The rules don't create money that is already down the drain. Is it feasible that JREF has other money than the ones mentioned in the .pdf? Is it also feasible, considering Jeff Wagg has apparently stated as much, that should aforementioned bonds become worth less than 1 million dollars, JREF will provide proof of other liquid assets? The answers to both questions are obviously yes, and considering Jeff said as much, it it more than feasible, it is very likely.

30th September 2008, 02:14 PM	#24
Brian-M Daydreamer Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Downunder Posts: 4,267	Originally Posted by The Professor I can't win what you don't have I can make rules all day that say whatever I want but that doesn't mean I've got a Million to back them up. The rules don't create money that is already down the drain. If the unthinkable happens, and the bonds become worthless and you win the million dollars, then JREF still has to pay you the money, either in installments from it's income, or by declaring bankruptcy and selling it's assets. Of course, the chances of the bonds becoming worth less than the million dollars is only slightly less improbable than you passing the preliminary test.
	__________________ "That is just what you feel, that isn't reality." - hamelekim

30th September 2008, 02:57 PM	#25
The Professor Banned Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 721	Originally Posted by Modesty78 Is it feasible that JREF has other money than the ones mentioned in the .pdf? Is it also feasible, considering Jeff Wagg has apparently stated as much, that should aforementioned bonds become worth less than 1 million dollars, JREF will provide proof of other liquid assets? The answers to both questions are obviously yes, and considering Jeff said as much, it it more than feasible, it is very likely. All documentation of assets of the JREF must be available to the general public as they are a Not For Profit group. Hiding money is illegal.
The Professor Banned Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 721

30th September 2008, 03:09 PM	#26
Azrael 5 Philosopher Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Yorkshire,Uk Posts: 5,029	Originally Posted by The Professor All documentation of assets of the JREF must be available to the general public as they are a Not For Profit group. Hiding money is illegal. Well Im sure Randi can just run up a few bills if there's a short fall.
	__________________ "I achieve these results through a mixture of magic,misdirection,suggestion and showmanship"-Derren Brown Last edited by Azrael 5; 30th September 2008 at 03:09 PM. Reason: Missed a word.

30th September 2008, 07:46 PM	#27
The Professor Banned Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 721	Made me Laugh!!!!
The Professor Banned Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 721

30th September 2008, 08:46 PM	#28
shadron Philosopher Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Colorado Posts: 5,719	Originally Posted by The Professor All documentation of assets of the JREF must be available to the general public as they are a Not For Profit group. Hiding money is illegal. I would like to see this assertion backed up. I've done some looking in Wikipedia and at About.com, and can find no blanket disclosure requirement for non-profits, at either state or national levels.

30th September 2008, 11:28 PM	#29
MattC ducky's chatroom assassin Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: Freedonia Posts: 426	Originally Posted by alfaniner Seeing as the Challenge funds are currently in negotiable bonds at Goldman-Sachs, and hearing the news about all the bank buyouts, what does this mean for the million dollars? I know the Challenge will be retired soon, but I was wondering what would happen if the current value of the bonds falls below the million dollar level. Originally Posted by The Professor No one has really answered this yet. I am going to set out to do so and beg you or anyone else who still has questions when I am finished to either ask in this thread or PM me all questions that may remain. I fear that the initial question has been perverted throughout most of the thread. Instead of asking "what will become of the money?" (which is answered about as well as can be expected by Jeff Wagg, while the JREF's documents showing that the money is invested at Goldman Sachs are public, Goldman Sachs' documentation of how exactly the money is invested is understandably not. Startz' opinion upon this matter is probably the most accurate one proffered by a non-employee, Startz is generally right when he speaks), it has become "can the money be paid if won?" The answer to this question is determined by the nature of the contract stipulated between the JREF and the applicant. Viewing the rules of the application, it is perhaps most significant to note this: Originally Posted by Challenge Application I, James Randi, through the JREF, will pay US$1,000,000 [One Million Dollars/US] to any person who can demonstrate any psychic, supernatural or paranormal ability under satisfactory observing conditions. Mind you, this paragraph in no way specifies where the money will come from - considering the changeable nature of the markets (as we've witnessed, reversals can come quickly), this is the best way to go. Wisely the JREF has set up a primary account for the purpose of paying out this money (to put this more into the purview of most of the forum readers, a business that repairs computers would have an expense account set up labeled 'parts', whenever they buy new computer parts to repair computers with, they take the money from this account if it's possible) where the million can safely reside. However, in no way does this lack of specificity in the nature of the payment serve as an out for the JREF to avoid paying - in fact, quite the opposite. If the contract stated, for example, that the million dollars would be paid from the JREF challenge account, then the applicant would be forced to take whatever amount happened to be in the account at the time of winning, regardless of whether or not it was less or more than a million (one could argue that a "million dollar challenge" that doesn't have a million dollars as a prize is a deliberate misdirection in court, but there are many viable defenses to this claim that could be used to reobtain most of that million if employed properly). Indeed, according to the terms of the contract now, if the money in the prize account should be below one million dollars at the time of someone winning, then the JREF would be forced to make up the difference somehow - how they do this really isn't an issue so long as they do. As an example, say if the prize funds dipped to exactly $990,000 - ten thousand dollars less than the million required when the money was claimed. The JREF would then be required to make up the remaining ten thousand from any legal avenue - taking out a short-term loan, for example, for the ten thousand would certainly work. Selling office furniture or used computers would be another way to raise the money. The contract in its current state is more advantageous to the applicant than it is to the JREF for these reasons. Originally Posted by Startz Goldman Sachs isn't a bank. I believe none of the money is FDIC insured. The JREF statement doesn't give details about how the money is invested. The banking arm of Goldman Sachs (called, conveniently, "Goldman Sachs Bank") is a member of the FDIC (certification number 57485), but the money is not held at Goldman Sachs Bank so far as I can see, so no it is not FDIC-insured. FDIC regulations only insure quote-unquote "deposit accounts", a complete list of which can be found at http://www.fdic.gov/consumers/consum.../fdiciorn.html along with a list of what they do not insure, also described at the same convenient address. As the JREF's money is in bond form, it would not qualify to be insured by the FDIC at all. How the money is invested is covered in the statement in a very general form (under the heading "Portfolio Asset Allocation"), but information on how the money is currently being managed (as the JREF has effectively subcontracted Goldman Sachs to do this for them) is proprietary to Goldman Sachs and not to the JREF. Getting this information from Goldman Sachs would most probably require a subpoena from a judge, which would require you to prove that the information was both necessary and relevant. Originally Posted by shadron I would like to see this assertion backed up. It's enforced through the IRS, hence why neither Wikipedia nor About knew much about it. Try searching for "transparency" instead of "disclosure", it got me closer to the crux of the matter. Essentially, it's the IRS making public the 990 forms of non-profit organizations. I think both sites you mentioned got confused by the word "disclosure", it seems to imply that the NPO itself was disclosing this information (many of them do upon qualified request) instead of the IRS. I was able to find the JREF's 990 form through GuideStar for the 2007 year, it clearly lists and defines the financial status of the JREF throughout the 2007 year. The information is there for those desiring to find it. ------------------------------ If there are any further questions, please leave them in the thread or shoot them to me via PM. ~ MattC
	Last edited by MattC; 1st October 2008 at 12:05 AM.

1st October 2008, 05:28 PM	#30
The Professor Banned Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 721	Originally Posted by shadron I would like to see this assertion backed up. I've done some looking in Wikipedia and at About.com, and can find no blanket disclosure requirement for non-profits, at either state or national levels. If either of you'd view tha DragonCon exposure video you would have seen Randi say that ALL of his records are open to the public. It's a statement he likes to make and in fact a Not for Profit can NOT have secret books! Thanks for all of the verification
The Professor Banned Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 721

1st October 2008, 05:56 PM	#31
Pantaz Muse Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Van Nuys, CA Posts: 897	Originally Posted by The Professor If either of you'd view tha DragonCon exposure video you would have seen Randi say that ALL of his records are open to the public. It's a statement he likes to make and in fact a Not for Profit can NOT have secret books! Thanks for all of the verification Have you been denied access to any records?

1st October 2008, 06:18 PM	#32
The Professor Banned Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 721	Originally Posted by Pantaz Have you been denied access to any records? Not yet But I do want to know if it's still the Million Dollar Challenge (Don't want to bounce any checks ) Someone mentioned that there might be a new "Statement' tomorrow. Am I correct in this?
The Professor Banned Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 721

1st October 2008, 11:58 PM	#33
Pantaz Muse Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Van Nuys, CA Posts: 897	You appear to have some kind of selective reading comprehension difficulty. Jeff Wagg himself has twice answered the question of the status of the MDC funds: Originally Posted by Jeff Wagg, 22nd September 2008, 08:09 PM The money is very conservatively invested, and is quite safe. There is more than enough in the account to pay the million should we need to. Originally Posted by Jeff Wagg, 25th September 2008, 04:21 PM For the record, I checked the challenge account at Goldman Sachs and it contains well over the amount required for the challenge. Why do you continue to infer all manner of wrong-doing by the JREF and James Randi?

2nd October 2008, 02:48 AM	#34
steenkh Illuminator Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Denmark Posts: 3,472	Originally Posted by The Professor Not yet But I do want to know if it's still the Million Dollar Challenge (Don't want to bounce any checks ) Someone mentioned that there might be a new "Statement' tomorrow. Am I correct in this? Why does this actually bother you? Winning the Million Dollar Challenge will in any case catapult you to untold heights of fame with all the profit-earning opportunities you can imagine! You could probably make a fortune just out being the one who busted the JREF and James Randi financially, even if you only got a fragment of the promised prize sum.
	__________________ Steen -- Jack of all trades - master of none!

2nd October 2008, 02:54 AM	#35
DevilsAdvocate Illuminator Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 3,645	Originally Posted by The Professor But I do want to know if it's still the Million Dollar Challenge. It is. Jeff confirmed that. And the year is still 2008. And the sun is still warm. And two is still less than four. You will be notified, or you can easily check, if any of these things have changed. Sit back. Relax. Dream about a million dollars. Kick off your shoes. Work up a protocol.
	__________________ Heaven forbid someone reads these words and claims to be adversely affected by them, thus ensuring a barrage of lawsuits filed under the guise of protecting the unknowing victims who were stupid enough to read this and believe it! - Kevin Trudeau