Palin-Biden debate: Predictions

[Undesired Walrus]

Will it be utterly excruciating to watch? Short of setting herself on fire, Palin will likely exceed expectations at this stage.

However, as knowledgeable as Biden is, he doesn't seem to be a great debater. He seems to throw his hands up in the air and say 'Hey look' more often than nailing his opponent.

He should hope not to come off as a grumpy old parent at the back of the school hall interrupting someone else's child on stage.

[hgc]

I predict that McCain will find a way to cancel it.

[Cleon]

I think Palin's going to use the Clinton strategy. She's going to make as many comments about playing in the "boys' club" as she can, and try to avoid substantive answers to the questions. She'll try to be glib and "folksy." (Watch for lots of "lipstick"-type jokes.)

Biden, if he's smart, will avoid condescending to her at all costs. Bullying her will only make her look sympathetic. He'll probably hammer her on the "Bridge to Nowhere" business, which she has lied about constantly with the "thanks but no thanks" business. If he's feeling exceptionally stupid, he'll try to make jokes about her being a former "beauty queen;" there's no way that would come across as anything but condescending and slightly sexist, and would quite probably alienate many women.

[Malerin]

Some astrophysicists believe information lives on in a black hole. During the debate, Palin will reach a point of negative information and wink out of existence.

[David Wong]

I predict she will exceed expectations, mainly because the couple of terrible interviews she's done have lowered them so badly. But they will coach her until her brain can handle no more coaching, she'll have her responses memorized, and she'll come out ok.

They've got the format set up as favorably as possible to her, I don't see a disaster happening here.

[Gnu World Order]

Originally Posted by David Wong

I predict she will exceed expectations, mainly because the couple of terrible interviews she's done have lowered them so badly. But they will coach her until her brain can handle no more coaching, she'll have her responses memorized, and she'll come out ok.

They've got the format set up as favorably as possible to her, I don't see a disaster happening here.

I think she'll come across as someone who has her responses memorized.

She'll probably get in some carefully planned zingers at Obama/Biden, justified or not, which might blunt the effect of her being in over her head.

In '04, as I remember it, the veep debate was full of wild charges being thrown around, way too many to be corrected or fact-checked. I suspect this year's will end up being the same way, and be judged a draw.

[Oliver]

I predict that I will get headaches over trying to translate what the heck she was talking about.

[FaisonMars]

She will try to be folksy and tell stories-- I predict a lot of awkward (and for us, painful) transitions as she tries to segue from an question she can't handle into a pre-recorded, heavily practiced anecdote or laugh line. But there is tons of material out there for Biden to challenge her on without being condescending. Why does she keep lying about her support for the Gravina Island Bridge? Why is she obstructing the troopergate investigation if there's nothing to hide? How does Alaska's proximity to the least-densely populated corner of Russia give her foreign policy experience? Why won't Palin do media interviews? Etc. Family issues must (and should) be off limits, except perhaps the question of why Todd ignored the troopergate subpoena.

I worry that Gwen Ifill will let her nonsensical answers drift into the air in order to move on and save time. Ifill is going to have to do what both Gibson and Kouric did by asking the question again and again until she admits she doesn't have an answer.

Biden can score significant points in two ways: pointing out how Palin is like Bush ("ya can't blink," cronyism, lack of curiosity about the world, pushing an extreme evangelical agenda) and also by emphasizing that Palin is not qualified to be a "heartbeat" away from the Presidency.

[TheJim]

Don't forgot debates are not about who "Wins" but how according to the swing voter answers the questions they have of each individual candidate. That is why last nights debate that looked like a tie or possibly a small win for either candidate last night actually turned out to be a sizable win for Obama as he answered the questions that the swing voter had about his ability to look like a president and he had enough FP chops to at least hold his own against McCain.

With all of that said, it is also important that the Veep debate is almost always unimportant and really can not help the top of the ticket so much as it can hurt the top of the ticket. I would wager that this is the most watched VP debate since at least 92 if not of all time as still no one knows how Palin is. Biden does not really have to answer any question to the public as he is a known quality and as long as he shows her respect he will do his part.

This debate is all about Palin. I don't buy into low exceptions meme about her for a few reasons. First, because of McCain's age she is more likely to take over the presidency than anyone since Bush 1 so the swings will want to know there is someone that can jump in if needed. Second, McCain obviously will not use her as anything more than a glorified hostess but to the public the VP is now seen though the lens of Cheny who was a key part of an administration. Third, she has to have at least as much knowledge as the average congressperson on Meet The Press and she just has never dealt with national issues before so she could be the smartest person in the room and still she has to cram enough information to sound at least informed about Health Care, the Wall St bailout, housing, unemployment, taxes, the budget, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, NATO etc etc. She also has to explain away her previous interviews along with why she is hiding. I would not be surprised if either Gwen or Joe corner her into agreeing with doing a press conference or going on the Sunday talk shows that weekend. Without the interviews she only had about a 10 percent chance of not hurting the ticket but with the interview I just don't see how she does not cost McCain a point in the polls and each gaff she makes forces McCain to waste time at the next debate.

[Alferd_Packer]

A lot is going to depend on Gwen Ifill. One of the things I liked about Jim Lehrer is that he kept the answers focused on the questions.

If Gwen can do the same thing and not allow either candidate to give non-answers, then I suspect that Palin will not do well.

[R.Mackey]

I'd expect Palin to come out swinging. This is typical debate coaching with a weak participant -- Dan Quayle did it against Gore, for instance -- where one tries to make up for poor reactions by seizing the initiative.

Biden, if he's smart, will plan to let her do it, tossing in an odd barb here and there, and then suddenly turn and riposte about twenty minutes into the debate. The problem with the all-offense debate tactic is that when it breaks, it breaks hard.

Biden can lose if he comes across as patronizing or belittling. On the other hand, if he lets her dig a hole and then stops her cold by exposing her lack of knowledge, this can be a disaster for the GOP.

If I was a shark, I'd be smelling blood right about now...

[hgc]

Originally Posted by Alferd_Packer

A lot is going to depend on Gwen Ifill. One of the things I liked about Jim Lehrer is that he kept the answers focused on the questions.

If Gwen can do the same thing and not allow either candidate to give non-answers, then I suspect that Palin will not do well.

True - Jim Lehrer set a new standard for debate moderation last night. I hope to see the same from the rest of the debates.

[Thunder]

McCain and Palin will find some sort of excuse to cancel the debate. cause they know that Biden will wipe the floor with her.

[Just thinking]

There's only one thing more boring than watching presidential debates ... reading biased posts as to their outcome.

[uk_dave]

Originally Posted by R.Mackey

If I was a shark, I'd be smelling blood right about now...

....they're gonna need a bigger boat.

[hgc]

Originally Posted by Just thinking

There's only one thing more boring than watching presidential debates ... reading biased posts as to their outcome.

Another thing more boring: reading posts saying that other posts are boring. That tops them all.

[dudalb]

Originally Posted by Cleon

I think Palin's going to use the Clinton strategy. She's going to make as many comments about playing in the "boys' club" as she can, and try to avoid substantive answers to the questions. She'll try to be glib and "folksy." (Watch for lots of "lipstick"-type jokes.)

Biden, if he's smart, will avoid condescending to her at all costs. Bullying her will only make her look sympathetic. He'll probably hammer her on the "Bridge to Nowhere" business, which she has lied about constantly with the "thanks but no thanks" business. If he's feeling exceptionally stupid, he'll try to make jokes about her being a former "beauty queen;" there's no way that would come across as anything but condescending and slightly sexist, and would quite probably alienate many women.

The one thing that could blow this for Biden is if he acts condescending and/or acts like he is beating up on her.
You might argue that Palin knew she would get tough treatment when she signed on, but that does not matter to the a verage viewer if he thinks BIden is beating up on her.

[Whiplash]

Originally Posted by parky76

McCain and Palin will find some sort of excuse to cancel the debate. cause they know that Biden will wipe the floor with her.

I don't understand how you guys can say this "with a straight face" so to speak. Surely it's sarcasm. Otherwise, I honestly don't understand your mindset in the least. Is it wishful thinking?

[Denver]

My impressions of these VP candidates, from my limited exposure to date, is that Palin is way underqualified and essentially clueless, and that Biden is a smartass, and essentially clueless. When you mix a debate up with these elements, you'll have Palin trying to pull out random memorized facts at the wrong moments to justify irrelevant parts of the current question, and you'll have Biden trying not to laugh at and attack everything she says, failing that and coming off as condescending, while blowing smoke around his own non-answers.

So, as far as the political process: business as usual.

[Wangler]

I don't think that there is going to be a draw on this one.

Palin will either step-up, and by just doing that score a major victory, or she will post an epic fail on national network TV.

Everyone knows that Biden is going to drop a few sound-bite jabs and gaffes, and all the attention will be on Palin.

I just hope that the liberal pundits continue to lower the bar for her...easier for her to stick the landing.

[FaisonMars]

Originally Posted by Denver

My impressions of these VP candidates, from my limited exposure to date, is that Palin is way underqualified and essentially clueless, and that Biden is a smartass, and essentially clueless.

Biden is a smartass and a windbag, but he's not clueless. Look at the transcripts from his "Meet the Press" appearances and such... he can speak very intelligently about many issues, esp. foreign policy, and he can be good at handling tough questions directly.

[HarryKeogh]

I predict Palin will start the debate by blowing into her cupped hands producing a variety of animal noises. Her woodland friends will then burst into the auditorium, trampling Senator Biden and thus ensuring her victory in the debate.

Then she will cut open his belly and drink a cup of his still-warm blood. This will endear her to the "low information" voters even more than her inane ramblings and pregnant daughter have done.

[corplinx]

Palin has set the bar so low, she only needs to trip over it to be successful.

Biden comes in still being a largely undefined quantity to the electorate. A memorable gaffe could define him.

[Denver]

Originally Posted by FaisonMars

Biden is a smartass and a windbag, but he's not clueless. Look at the transcripts from his "Meet the Press" appearances and such... he can speak very intelligently about many issues, esp. foreign policy, and he can be good at handling tough questions directly.

I really have not seen much of him at all, so I am looking forward to the debates to really get the scoop on both of them.

[joobz]

Prediction:
It will end in tears and the slow removal of clothes. Palin will be dumbstruck by this display of Biden's.

[R.Mackey]

Originally Posted by HarryKeogh

I predict Palin will start the debate by blowing into her cupped hands producing a variety of animal noises. Her woodland friends will then burst into the auditorium, trampling Senator Biden and thus ensuring her victory in the debate.

The only "Woodland Friends" Ms. Palin has wear blaze orange and carry firearms.

Though it would be a useful super-power for a politician to have, no doubt. I'd rethink my opposition to her.

[MattusMaximus]

I think that ultimately the VP debate won't matter that much, despite the fact that I'd enjoy seeing Palin crash-and-burn.

I think that McCain has the most to lose in the VP debate, because of all the attention given to his "maverick" pick of Palin. If she royally screws up, it will reflect much worse on him than some ham-fisted gaffes from Biden hurting Obama.

In large part, the VP debate will be eclipsed by the remaining two presidential debates. And no matter how well, or poorly, Palin does in the VP debate, McCain going toe-to-toe against Obama is the real story.

And McCain did not carry it off as he needed to last night. Palin cannot save him from that, even if she blows Biden out of the water.

[IMST]

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[MattusMaximus]

Excellent post!

[Dragoonster]

It's dangerous to set the bar really low as people say. But after watching her interviews she might not even reach it no matter how low.

Originally Posted by Alferd_Packer

A lot is going to depend on Gwen Ifill. One of the things I liked about Jim Lehrer is that he kept the answers focused on the questions.

If Gwen can do the same thing and not allow either candidate to give non-answers, then I suspect that Palin will not do well.

Yep!

Even Palin's nonanswers have self-destructed in soft interviews. The "Russia" thing for example, she had to have been prepped on a response to that--but still came out with a muddled, irrational horror of a response. Couric didn't need to press much at all on that.

The range of topics is going to be vast enough that she'll have to answer some where she has no prepped response. And as demonstrated she may fail even things she's practiced.

If I were Biden my primary focus would be limiting my gaffes, or body language, tone--anything that a post-debate dissection could use as a 5-second "what was he doing here" clip. If he keeps that to a minimum, I think Palin will provide enough of her own so the majority of pundits are pointing to her flaws rather than his.

If I were Palin I'd try to draw Biden into emotional responses, perhaps by attacking Obama's position. OTOH I'd try to learn McCain's position during the next week, and focus more on answering what he'd do, rather than any anecdotes or theories of my own. (Might be a tall order, she's having trouble enough learning her own position!)

[gdnp]

I think although the expectations for Palin are low the bar is high. It's not good enough if people say "gosh, I thought she was a complete idiot, but she was almost coherent". Biden does not need to prove himself. He has been around long enough that there is little doubt that he is knowledgeable enough to step in as president should the need arise. Palin, on the other hand, has performed so poorly in every unscripted appearance that she really has only this one shot to prove herself capable of the job. If she puts on a Katie Couric level performance the McCain ticket is toast. There is no "round 2" for her to come back. Obama can survive a few Biden slips. Palin, however, will be under a microscope. She has to show that that she is ready to play with the boys. This is not a sexist thing: Hillary proved that she was ready. Palin might have been able to do the same if she had been through a year of primaries. She hasn't been. She has been dropped into the World Series directly from the minor leagues, with her team down 3 games to 2. She needs to come up with the performance of a lifetime without a teleprompter or the series may be over.

[chipmunk stew]

I agree with gdnp.

Biden's main objective is easy: Don't make a major gaffe that draws attention away from Palin.

Palin's is really, really hard: Reassure the voters that you can step up if the president goes down.

She may "win" the debate by surpassing low expectations, but even a tactical win will not be enough if she doesn't clear the reassurance bar.

[geni]

Originally Posted by chipmunk stew

I agree with gdnp.

Biden's main objective is easy: Don't make a major gaffe that draws attention away from Palin.

Palin's is really, really hard: Reassure the voters that you can step up if the president goes down.

She may "win" the debate by surpassing low expectations, but even a tactical win will not be enough if she doesn't clear the reassurance bar.

So both sides play it safe resulting in a VP debate so dull that it is used as a calibration for future measures of dullness.

[MaGZ]

If I were Biden I would take the debate easy and let Palin do as well as she can.

[chipmunk stew]

Originally Posted by geni

So both sides play it safe resulting in a VP debate so dull that it is used as a calibration for future measures of dullness.

Perhaps. But it's hard to imagine that these two going head-to-head could calibrate the dull-o-meter, no matter how safe they play it. Even if they respond entirely with canned responses, there will be enough to scrutinize in the body language and facial tics, etc. to make it more interesting than many a debate.

[MaGZ]

Originally Posted by HarryKeogh

I predict Palin will start the debate by blowing into her cupped hands producing a variety of animal noises. Her woodland friends will then burst into the auditorium, trampling Senator Biden and thus ensuring her victory in the debate.

Then she will cut open his belly and drink a cup of his still-warm blood. This will endear her to the "low information" voters even more than her inane ramblings and pregnant daughter have done.

That will never happen because her Black African exorcist pastor has removed all evil spirits, demons and witches from her.

[corplinx]

Originally Posted by chipmunk stew

Palin's is really, really hard: Reassure the voters that you can step up if the president goes down.

The electorate is largely stupid. All she has to do is look nicer and be more likable than Biden. HDTV and all, I have a feeling that whichever candidate looks nicer without completely flubbing is the winner.

I think this may explain why so many people thought McCain/Obama was a draw outside the hard partisans. However, when you look at the polls of the general public they show a slight Obama lead.

So as cynical as it is, Palin really doesn't have to show presidential quality. She just has to win the beauty pagent.

[joobz]

Originally Posted by corplinx

The electorate is largely stupid. All she has to do is look nicer and be more likable than Biden. HDTV and all, I have a feeling that whichever candidate looks nicer without completely flubbing is the winner.

I think this may explain why so many people thought McCain/Obama was a draw outside the hard partisans. However, when you look at the polls of the general public they show a slight Obama lead.

So as cynical as it is, Palin really doesn't have to show presidential quality. She just has to win the beauty pagent.

And they call liberals elitist.

[chipmunk stew]

Originally Posted by corplinx

The electorate is largely stupid. All she has to do is look nicer and be more likable than Biden. HDTV and all, I have a feeling that whichever candidate looks nicer without completely flubbing is the winner.

I think this may explain why so many people thought McCain/Obama was a draw outside the hard partisans. However, when you look at the polls of the general public they show a slight Obama lead.

So as cynical as it is, Palin really doesn't have to show presidential quality. She just has to win the beauty pagent.

In a sense, Obama had a similar hurdle to clear. There were a good number of people who have been uneasy about Obama as CIC. He had to reassure them that he was qualified. I think he did, and I think that's why the overall electorate gave him a slight edge.

Palin has to do the same thing, but many more people have misgivings about her than had about Obama. By her embarassing interview performances, she exacerbated people's misgivings, and it will take even more for her to reassure people than it would have if she'd skipped those interviews.

It's a gut-level gauging of the candidate, but I don't think it's as superficial as you make it out to be.

[ZenFountain]

It should be remembered that in 1988 Dan Quayle was practically beaten and dragged out of the VP debate by Lloyd Bentsen but the ticket still went on to win. Honestly find some clips of that debate.

And maybe McCain could learn something from George H.W. Bush on how to defend his candidate.

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Purely a discussion point, the thought of President Palin scares the hell out of me.