The New Nostradamus...Psychohistory?

Bikewer · 1st December 2008, 07:42 AM

The History channel was running a show yesterday called The New Nostradamus, profiling mathemetician/social scientist Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, who has a computer program/model that can reputedly make accurate predictions about various human affairs and conflicts.

Alas, I did not get to watch the episode, which of course brought to mind Isaac Asimov's "Foundation" trilogy and the invention of "Psychohistory", which could make accurate predictions of human behavior.

There is a wiki article on the guy, and I found this article as well:

http://www.goodmagazine.com/section/...ew_nostradamus

Apparently, the guy makes some claim to a good track record with his predictions, but is also a bit controversial.
Anyone else heard of this guy and his notions?

seayakin · 1st December 2008, 08:42 AM

Wasn't it Isaac Asimov (or someone else) who had mentioned psychohistory in one of his novels? Whichever it was, the concept behind it was the same.

Gord_in_Toronto · 1st December 2008, 10:11 AM

Well. Speaking as one time meteorologist.

All I have to say is Chaos_theory^WP.

Doesn't work. Can't work.

dudalb · 1st December 2008, 11:11 AM

It's a terrible concept.
It comes out of the urge of some people to apply the same methods you use in the hard sciences to history, and it has predictably bad results. If you are a mathmetician who is interested in History, I think the "If the only tool you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail" rule applies.
It has been around for a while.
Asimov stated that he used psycho history as a plot device for his Foundation novels, and he never meant for it to be taken as a serious method of history. That is one reason he introduced the Mule into his Foundation stories, to show how improbable and unreliable a pure mathmatical approach to history is.
Heinlein has something simliar in Starship Troopers, but unlike Asimov, he apparently actually thought of it in a serious way. Heinlein was perhaps the best Sci Fi writer of all times, but he had some, let us say, wierd ideas.

Jeff Corey · 1st December 2008, 11:25 AM

In psychology, it refers to this: "Psychohistory. A Psychoanalytic Approach to History
This site contains a psychoanalytic interpretation of myths, Biblical stories, tales, and historical and current events."

I refer to it as Psycho History.

1st December 2008, 07:42 AM	#1
Bikewer Philosopher Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: St. Louis, Mo. Posts: 9,519	The New Nostradamus...Psychohistory? The History channel was running a show yesterday called The New Nostradamus, profiling mathemetician/social scientist Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, who has a computer program/model that can reputedly make accurate predictions about various human affairs and conflicts. Alas, I did not get to watch the episode, which of course brought to mind Isaac Asimov's "Foundation" trilogy and the invention of "Psychohistory", which could make accurate predictions of human behavior. There is a wiki article on the guy, and I found this article as well: http://www.goodmagazine.com/section/...ew_nostradamus Apparently, the guy makes some claim to a good track record with his predictions, but is also a bit controversial. Anyone else heard of this guy and his notions?

1st December 2008, 08:42 AM	#2
seayakin Muse Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Somewhere on a wave in the North Atlantic Posts: 857	Wasn't it Isaac Asimov (or someone else) who had mentioned psychohistory in one of his novels? Whichever it was, the concept behind it was the same.
	__________________ "I kayak, therefore I am"

1st December 2008, 10:11 AM	#3
Gord_in_Toronto Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 13,411	Well. Speaking as one time meteorologist. All I have to say is Chaos_theory^WP. Doesn't work. Can't work.
	__________________ "Reality is what's left when you cease to believe." Philip K. Dick

1st December 2008, 11:11 AM	#4
dudalb Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 22,782	It's a terrible concept. It comes out of the urge of some people to apply the same methods you use in the hard sciences to history, and it has predictably bad results. If you are a mathmetician who is interested in History, I think the "If the only tool you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail" rule applies. It has been around for a while. Asimov stated that he used psycho history as a plot device for his Foundation novels, and he never meant for it to be taken as a serious method of history. That is one reason he introduced the Mule into his Foundation stories, to show how improbable and unreliable a pure mathmatical approach to history is. Heinlein has something simliar in Starship Troopers, but unlike Asimov, he apparently actually thought of it in a serious way. Heinlein was perhaps the best Sci Fi writer of all times, but he had some, let us say, wierd ideas.
	Last edited by dudalb; 1st December 2008 at 11:13 AM.

1st December 2008, 11:25 AM	#5
Jeff Corey New York Skeptic Join Date: Aug 2001 Posts: 13,794	In psychology, it refers to this: "Psychohistory. A Psychoanalytic Approach to History This site contains a psychoanalytic interpretation of myths, Biblical stories, tales, and historical and current events." I refer to it as Psycho History.