Tracking woo predictions??

nzric · 23rd December 2008, 06:38 PM

I really like the principle behind Long Bets (http://www.longbets.org/), which got me thinking... is there any website that tracks woo predictions and verifies/falsifies them?

Many psychics/kooks give predictions for the new year - it would be great if there was some place that records them people to review later on (i.e. when whatever they predict doesn't happen).

UNLoVedRebel · 23rd December 2008, 11:17 PM

I prefer to call them 'postdictions.'

blutoski · 24th December 2008, 02:48 PM

Originally Posted by nzric

I really like the principle behind Long Bets (http://www.longbets.org/), which got me thinking... is there any website that tracks woo predictions and verifies/falsifies them?

Many psychics/kooks give predictions for the new year - it would be great if there was some place that records them people to review later on (i.e. when whatever they predict doesn't happen).

I'm pretty sure that the big names are tracked at the JREF. Sylvia Browne makes annual predictions, as do many syndicated astrologers.

I'd support a dedicated site for this.

Your biggest challenge will be dealing with disappointment. Most predictors will have plenty of hits. The prognosticators know the Jeane Dixon strategy: make many contradicting predictions, and make them as vague as possible.

logical muse · 24th December 2008, 03:08 PM

I'm going to build a site to do this as part of my January project which I discussed here:

http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=130433

The site will be at: http://www.whopredicted.com/

Check progress here: http://www.samedaysites.com/site.php?p=predictions&d=15

blutoski · 24th December 2008, 03:17 PM

Originally Posted by logical muse

I'm going to build a site to do this as part of my January project which I discussed here:

http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=130433

The site will be at: http://www.whopredicted.com/

Check progress here: http://www.samedaysites.com/site.php?p=predictions&d=15

I don't understand your project, but regarding this specific website: do you need help? Do you have a plan?

Just an alternative thought to throw out... could we use the skepticwiki for this instead? (eg: each prognosticator would have a subject page, and we'd include a subsection for their [predictions] in a table format with a [review date] and a [came true = t/f] and subsequent [discussion] cell, if there's debate.)

blutoski · 24th December 2008, 03:21 PM

Also, to follow up... in the case of Sylvia Browne, the stopsylvia site seems to have independent articles about hand-picked predictions. eg: [Sylvia Browne's Presidential Election Predictions]

logical muse · 24th December 2008, 03:48 PM

Originally Posted by blutoski

I don't understand your project, but regarding this specific website: do you need help? Do you have a plan?

Just an alternative thought to throw out... could we use the skepticwiki for this instead? (eg: each prognosticator would have a subject page, and we'd include a subsection for their [predictions] in a table format with a [review date] and a [came true = t/f] and subsequent [discussion] cell, if there's debate.)

The project is just something to keep me busy next month. I'm going to make a bunch of web sites.

Regarding this one, yes, I do have a plan. Suggestions are always welcome though!

What I want to do with this site, is not just keep track of predictions, but also log all major world-wide events, and then see who predicted them.

blutoski · 27th December 2008, 08:26 AM

Originally Posted by logical muse

The project is just something to keep me busy next month. I'm going to make a bunch of web sites.

Regarding this one, yes, I do have a plan. Suggestions are always welcome though!

What I want to do with this site, is not just keep track of predictions, but also log all major world-wide events, and then see who predicted them.

You mean predictions by, say, economists or the US DOD?

logical muse · 28th December 2008, 04:09 PM

Originally Posted by blutoski

You mean predictions by, say, economists or the US DOD?

The idea is that the content is user-generated. You can submit whatever predictions you want; either your own or those that have been published in other media.

23rd December 2008, 06:38 PM	#1
nzric Thinker Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 214	Tracking woo predictions?? I really like the principle behind Long Bets (http://www.longbets.org/), which got me thinking... is there any website that tracks woo predictions and verifies/falsifies them? Many psychics/kooks give predictions for the new year - it would be great if there was some place that records them people to review later on (i.e. when whatever they predict doesn't happen).
nzric Thinker Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 214	__________________ A fanatic is one who can’t change his mind and won’t change the subject.

23rd December 2008, 11:17 PM	#2
UNLoVedRebel Hard Knocks Doctorate Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: School of Hard Knocks Posts: 5,507	I prefer to call them 'postdictions.'
	__________________ "All the Officialiers here typically have rancid alien avatars or else some kind of violent military-type avatar. Once again affirming my contention that 9/11 Officialiers are the most violent, murderous, group of people in the United States. Both statistically confirmed, but also anecdotally affirmed in almost every case of active pro-Officialers." - FloydGoethe

24th December 2008, 02:48 PM	#3
blutoski Philosopher Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Vancouver BC Canada Posts: 5,983	Originally Posted by nzric I really like the principle behind Long Bets (http://www.longbets.org/), which got me thinking... is there any website that tracks woo predictions and verifies/falsifies them? Many psychics/kooks give predictions for the new year - it would be great if there was some place that records them people to review later on (i.e. when whatever they predict doesn't happen). I'm pretty sure that the big names are tracked at the JREF. Sylvia Browne makes annual predictions, as do many syndicated astrologers. I'd support a dedicated site for this. Your biggest challenge will be dealing with disappointment. Most predictors will have plenty of hits. The prognosticators know the Jeane Dixon strategy: make many contradicting predictions, and make them as vague as possible.
	__________________ "Sometimes it's better to light a flamethrower than curse the darkness." - Terry Pratchett

24th December 2008, 03:08 PM	#4
logical muse LogMu Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,082	I'm going to build a site to do this as part of my January project which I discussed here: http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=130433 The site will be at: http://www.whopredicted.com/ Check progress here: http://www.samedaysites.com/site.php?p=predictions&d=15
logical muse LogMu Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,082	__________________ how to spell definitely evolution is not just a theory "Far from terminating the vicious regress, God aggravates it with a vengeance." -- Richard Dawkins

24th December 2008, 03:17 PM	#5
blutoski Philosopher Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Vancouver BC Canada Posts: 5,983	Originally Posted by logical muse I'm going to build a site to do this as part of my January project which I discussed here: http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=130433 The site will be at: http://www.whopredicted.com/ Check progress here: http://www.samedaysites.com/site.php?p=predictions&d=15 I don't understand your project, but regarding this specific website: do you need help? Do you have a plan? Just an alternative thought to throw out... could we use the skepticwiki for this instead? (eg: each prognosticator would have a subject page, and we'd include a subsection for their [predictions] in a table format with a [review date] and a [came true = t/f] and subsequent [discussion] cell, if there's debate.)
	__________________ "Sometimes it's better to light a flamethrower than curse the darkness." - Terry Pratchett

24th December 2008, 03:21 PM	#6
blutoski Philosopher Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Vancouver BC Canada Posts: 5,983	Also, to follow up... in the case of Sylvia Browne, the stopsylvia site seems to have independent articles about hand-picked predictions. eg: [Sylvia Browne's Presidential Election Predictions]
	__________________ "Sometimes it's better to light a flamethrower than curse the darkness." - Terry Pratchett

24th December 2008, 03:48 PM	#7
logical muse LogMu Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,082	Originally Posted by blutoski I don't understand your project, but regarding this specific website: do you need help? Do you have a plan? Just an alternative thought to throw out... could we use the skepticwiki for this instead? (eg: each prognosticator would have a subject page, and we'd include a subsection for their [predictions] in a table format with a [review date] and a [came true = t/f] and subsequent [discussion] cell, if there's debate.) The project is just something to keep me busy next month. I'm going to make a bunch of web sites. Regarding this one, yes, I do have a plan. Suggestions are always welcome though! What I want to do with this site, is not just keep track of predictions, but also log all major world-wide events, and then see who predicted them.
logical muse LogMu Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,082	__________________ how to spell definitely evolution is not just a theory "Far from terminating the vicious regress, God aggravates it with a vengeance." -- Richard Dawkins

27th December 2008, 08:26 AM	#8
blutoski Philosopher Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Vancouver BC Canada Posts: 5,983	Originally Posted by logical muse The project is just something to keep me busy next month. I'm going to make a bunch of web sites. Regarding this one, yes, I do have a plan. Suggestions are always welcome though! What I want to do with this site, is not just keep track of predictions, but also log all major world-wide events, and then see who predicted them. You mean predictions by, say, economists or the US DOD?
	__________________ "Sometimes it's better to light a flamethrower than curse the darkness." - Terry Pratchett

28th December 2008, 04:09 PM	#9
logical muse LogMu Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,082	Originally Posted by blutoski You mean predictions by, say, economists or the US DOD? The idea is that the content is user-generated. You can submit whatever predictions you want; either your own or those that have been published in other media.
logical muse LogMu Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,082	__________________ how to spell definitely evolution is not just a theory "Far from terminating the vicious regress, God aggravates it with a vengeance." -- Richard Dawkins