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Tags Igor Panarin , political speculation

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Old 31st December 2008, 10:56 AM   #1
SirPhilip
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Igor Panarin - U.S 2010 National Collapse (Wall Street Journal)

Igor Panarin is ex KGB and a professor, with apparently relevant experience (making this quite an interesting topic for critical analysis), recently he was featured in the Wall Street Journal. The bombshell, as it were, has gotten relatively moderate attention as news.



A full summary.
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Last edited by SirPhilip; 31st December 2008 at 11:04 AM.
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Old 31st December 2008, 11:03 AM   #2
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Clearly, this person does not understand America or Americans.
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Old 31st December 2008, 11:46 AM   #3
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LOL, The Texas Republic is getting kinda of screwed.
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Old 31st December 2008, 12:55 PM   #4
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Mexican influence? We couldn't influence Belize if we tried. if anything, Texas would control Mexico. Also, why are the Carolinas, Kentucky and Tennessee going with the NE instead of the South? Utah, Idaho and Arizona seem poorly placed as well.
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Old 31st December 2008, 01:02 PM   #5
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Um... someone needs to lay off the illegal drugs.
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Old 31st December 2008, 01:03 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by SirPhilip View Post
Igor Panarin is ex KGB and a professor, with apparently relevant experience
What on earth would qualify as "relevant experience"? Was he around the last time the United States broke up into four or five pieces?

As to his scenario,.... pfffffffft.

The chances of Idaho joining a California-dominated part of the world are nil; Idaho has more in common, culturally, with Montana and Wyoming than it does with California --- and among the commonalities it has is a burning hatred of all things Californian. (The word "Californication" existed long before the RHCP made their silly little ditty, with a completely different meaning.) And China neither has the resources nor the skillset to buy California; it's having a hard enough time with Hong Kong.

Any Mexicans that tried to claim Alabama and Mississippi would quickly find out just how lax gun control laws are in the Southeast.

There's no reason on earth for Alaska to go to Russia; they'd go to Canada instead -- half of them already are Canadian.

Et cetera. I could give a dozen reasons why the map is utter ********, but there seems no reason to waste the bits that otherwise could go to something useful like a stolen MP3.
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Old 31st December 2008, 01:36 PM   #7
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Reminds me of how the Russians periodically release their amazing plans for spaceflight in the next couple of years...

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Old 31st December 2008, 01:40 PM   #8
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Quote:
There's no reason on earth for Alaska to go to Russia; they'd go to Canada instead -- half of them already are Canadian.
Wikipedia search shows that Igor thinks that Alaska was only leased to the United States and not sold.
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Old 31st December 2008, 01:42 PM   #9
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Old 31st December 2008, 01:42 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by technoextreme View Post
Wikipedia search shows that Igor thinks that Alaska was only leased to the United States and not sold.
Goodness. So much for "relevant experience."
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Old 31st December 2008, 01:46 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by Vic Vega View Post
Clearly, this person does not understand America or Americans.
But he's doing a good job of projecting:

From one of the comments in the WSJ article, a comment I think is spot-on:

Quote:
Sometimes an observation from a commentator tell us less about the subject he's nominally discussing and more about his own fears and world view. It appears to me that the message that we should take away from this fellow's commentary is that the people who control Russia today are deeply afraid of civil war and the breakup of the Russian state.

Such fears are not surprising. They lost their empire and they've had secession problems in recent years. They're trying to reacquire the countries of the old Soviet Union by any means available and those countries want little to do with today's Russia. Moreover, they've had a sort of internal coup that has ended the substance of Russian democracy while retaining the outward form. There is no rule of law in Russia. In consequence, there are internal problems with the perception of the Russian government's legitimacy and the people's commitment to the state known as Russia. Basically, the social contract in Russia is very weak. That's a natural consequence of the internal coup and the way that Russia has been governed. Among people with choices, who would willingly live in Russia?

For many years, Russia has also maintained grandiose ideas about its own role in the world. Naturally, such grandiosity leads to resentment of U.S. leadership, while their historical paranoia leads them to believe that our government has as little legitimacy as theirs and that our social contract is no stronger than theirs. With this world view, it's natural to believe that the U.S. should expect similar results to those that the Russians fear for themselves.
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Old 31st December 2008, 01:48 PM   #12
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Dam you Dr. Kitten. You are right and you beat me to it. Just out of sheer curiousity what does this have to do with science?
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Old 31st December 2008, 01:54 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by technoextreme View Post
Dam you Dr. Kitten. You are right and you beat me to it. Just out of sheer curiousity what does this have to do with science?
Psychology is a science, yes?
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Old 31st December 2008, 01:59 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by drkitten View Post
What on earth would qualify as "relevant experience"? Was he around the last time the United States broke up into four or five pieces?
I'm guessing he's one of the few people who sat through [Amerika] or perhaps [Red Dawn].
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Old 31st December 2008, 02:01 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by technoextreme View Post
Dam you Dr. Kitten. You are right and you beat me to it. Just out of sheer curiousity what does this have to do with science?
His assertions don't fall into loose political or social commentary, but are analytical in nature. His backround does give his conclusions weight, although I've yet to see a full presentation of how these outcomes were determined.
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Old 31st December 2008, 02:11 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by drkitten View Post
Goodness. So much for "relevant experience."
You are supposed to raise educated counterpoints first, then add that at the end.
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Old 31st December 2008, 02:12 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by SirPhilip View Post
His backround does give his conclusions weight,
Er,... not at all, really.

In fact, if anyone in Russia took this clown seriously, this particular prediction would be classified drop-dead-before-reading while the Russians figured out a way to profit from this extraordinary opportunity in Weltpolitik. It's not even a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, more like an epoch-making opportunity like the fall of Rome or the 1815 Treaty of Paris.

The Russians are great at hiding their cards, even from each other if necessary; it's their one great diplomatic strength. If they thought that California could be pried loose from the USA, they'd try to snatch it up itself before it could possibly fall to China. (Instead, they'll settle for Alaska? What are they smoking?) At the very least, they'd try to cut a private deal with China -- support their claim to California (in secret) in exchange for a warm-water port in the Pacific, which they've wanted for centuries.

Instead, they publish this grandiose prediction in the Wall Street Journal?
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Old 31st December 2008, 02:13 PM   #18
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What Panarin is proposing sounds similar to what Joel Garreau wrote about in his book The Nine Nations of North America, published in 1981.

Here's the Wikipedia page about it.
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Old 31st December 2008, 02:13 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by SirPhilip View Post
You are supposed to raise educated counterpoints first, then add that at the end.
Already done. Read post #6.
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Old 31st December 2008, 02:18 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by Demigorgon View Post
LOL, The Texas Republic is getting kinda of screwed.
While I can't comment on Panarin, what would actually happen to the geography of the united states in an economic collapse of that magnitude is worth debating.
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Old 31st December 2008, 02:18 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by Corsair 115 View Post
What Panarin is proposing sounds similar to what Joel Garreau wrote about in his book The Nine Nations of North America, published in 1981.
Well, at least Garreau's cultural analysis isn't obviously and trivially wrong; Garreau correctly identified that South Carolina is closer culturally to Alabama than to Massachusetts, that New Mexico is closer to Arizona culturally than to Louisiana, and that Wyoming is closer culturally to Utah than to Illinois.

Of course, I also don't think that Garreau was proposing that the USA would split into separate nation-states based on those lines, or that it would do it in the next couple of years.

Perhaps Panarin should have read Garreau's book?
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Old 31st December 2008, 02:22 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by SirPhilip View Post
While I can't comment on Panarin, what would actually happen to the geography of the united states in an economic collapse of that magnitude is worth debating.
Translation : you got nuthin'
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Old 31st December 2008, 02:26 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by drkitten View Post
Of course, I also don't think that Garreau was proposing that the USA would split into separate nation-states based on those lines, or that it would do it in the next couple of years.

I thumbed through the book once many years ago while in a bookstore, and seem to recall reading that he was proposing that North America might evenutally break up into the nine nations he described. But my recollection could easily be wrong.


Originally Posted by drkitten View Post
Perhaps Panarin should have read Garreau's book?

I was thinking perhaps Panarin did and used it as the basis for his own ideas.
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Old 31st December 2008, 02:30 PM   #24
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One of the funniest little maps I've seen in sometime.

Ahhh nostalgia, I made up a similar map when I was 12 about the American Cyborg Wars. Ahhh, childhood fantasies.
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Old 31st December 2008, 02:35 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by paximperium View Post
One of the funniest little maps I've seen in sometime.

Ahhh nostalgia, I made up a similar map when I was 12 about the American Cyborg Wars. Ahhh, childhood fantasies.
Reminds me a little bit of the map for the old _Shadowrun_ game. (FASA? Is that who published it?)

... a game that suffered from the same flaws, really, as the theory under discussion. Wicked cool concept, totally unworkable mechanics, entirely unrealistic outcome.

... and basically unplayable.
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Old 31st December 2008, 02:50 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by drkitten View Post
Translation : you got nuthin'
Beg pardon?
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Old 31st December 2008, 02:51 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by drkitten View Post
Reminds me a little bit of the map for the old _Shadowrun_ game. (FASA? Is that who published it?)

... a game that suffered from the same flaws, really, as the theory under discussion. Wicked cool concept, totally unworkable mechanics, entirely unrealistic outcome.

... and basically unplayable.
Wasn't Shadowrun the game about the return of orcs and elves into a cyberpunk America?

I was more a Rifts kids. Massive magic explosion destroys America and the world. Ahhh, memories. Fascist Chicago with anthropomorphic cyborg attack dogs. Giant robots with nuclear weapons fighting dragons. Magic hippie Boston and Cyborg cowboy California with Atlantis reappearing from the ocean floor...sounds as plausible as this fella's fantasy.
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Old 31st December 2008, 03:10 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by paximperium View Post
One of the funniest little maps I've seen in sometime.
It is nonsensical, or at the least, clumsy naivete at first glance. Although I can be excused for assuming he'd know better. The Russians however understand the problems inherent in capitalism - it was of tactical interest throughout the cold war, and of philosophical interest over a century. Communism itself failed spectacularly outside theory. But if Russia was it's experiment, America was capitalism as a social foundation and consumerism as an individual goal.

Like it or not, we are seeing it's logical end. That is, consumerism as an end in itself and no community interdependence outside competition.
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Old 31st December 2008, 03:18 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by SirPhilip View Post
Like it or not, we are seeing it's logical end. That is, consumerism as an end in itself and no community interdependence outside competition.
Actually, consumerism is a later construct of the post-WW2 war period due to the over-industrialization and need to upramp consumerism to meet the level of production. Prior to that time, the post-Depression generation was rather anti-consumerism.

Capitalism in the US has been there since the start of the nation. It has worked very well despite its inherent flaws.

I don't see the connection you claim. I actually see the need to consume and spend as cheaply as possible leading to more communal interdependence along with competition to increase efficiency and in turn cheaper goods and services.
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Old 31st December 2008, 03:25 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by SirPhilip View Post
That is, consumerism as an end in itself and no community interdependence outside competition.
This is patent nonsense. Capitalism has created greater community interdependence through globalization and specialization; the reason the USA has such an enormous trade deficit is because it's not even trying to compete with other countries to produce raw materials, or in many cases even finished goods.

If you think there's no community interdependence, then explain why I have to fuel my Japanese-built lawnmower with gasoline from the Middle East that I store in a plastic fuel container made in China?
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Old 31st December 2008, 04:05 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by paximperium View Post
Actually, consumerism is a later construct of the post-WW2 war period due to the over-industrialization and need to upramp consumerism to meet the level of production. Prior to that time, the post-Depression generation was rather anti-consumerism.
Indeed it was, and consumerism steadily increased to become a cultural end. Life liberty and the pursuit of happiness after all, was the stated goal of American life. What community would this result in was the American experiment.

Quote:
Capitalism in the US has been there since the start of the nation. It has worked very well despite its inherent flaws.
That's because it isn't economic, but the presumption individual prosperity equals social equanimity. The reality is it results in living far in excess of basic needs, the motivation being that reward. Consider John McCain, with seven homes and numerous cars as an example. Ideally, such a disproportion should be awarded in proportion to social contribution, not priviledge or economic advantage.

Quote:
I don't see the connection you claim. I actually see the need to consume and spend as cheaply as possible leading to more communal interdependence along with competition to increase efficiency and in turn cheaper goods and services.
However nobody wants to own cheaper goods and services, and the first thing most will consider when considering a university major is the ability to buy consumer goods as a first priority and what they are interested in as a secondary consideration.
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Old 31st December 2008, 04:35 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by drkitten View Post
This is patent nonsense. Capitalism has created greater community interdependence through globalization and specialization; the reason the USA has such an enormous trade deficit is because it's not even trying to compete with other countries to produce raw materials, or in many cases even finished goods.
You've outlined the problem: global insularity. In American life, it is individual insularity from social responsibility. The responsibility to the welfare of anyone else is taxes and perhaps, jury duty.

Quote:
If you think there's no community interdependence, then explain why I have to fuel my Japanese-built lawnmower with gasoline from the Middle East that I store in a plastic fuel container made in China?
Because it is practical advantage, a mutually assured profit with remotely anything altruistically constructive involved. American companies outsource at cultural and social costs they consider irrelevant to the small cost saving advantages.
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Last edited by SirPhilip; 31st December 2008 at 04:44 PM.
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Old 31st December 2008, 05:02 PM   #33
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Sounds like a giant case of projection to me. It's the Russian psychosis about "The Time Of Troubles" retuning transplanted to the US.
Canada taking over the Midwest is really funny.
And after getting a good look at Sarah Palin I doubt if Russia wants Alaska back....
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Old 31st December 2008, 06:09 PM   #34
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This reminds me of how America got split up the Mack Maloney Wingman series.
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Old 31st December 2008, 06:21 PM   #35
Texas
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Originally Posted by SirPhilip View Post
Igor Panarin is ex KGB and a professor, with apparently relevant experience (making this quite an interesting topic for critical analysis), recently he was featured in the Wall Street Journal. The bombshell, as it were, has gotten relatively moderate attention as news.

http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/im...1228191715.gif

A full summary.
Well in the case of the Texas republic, include Oklahoma, Tennessee, west Virginia, the Carolinas and possibly Missouri. I'm not sure how the other republics are going to supply themselves with oil or defense and food since all three are heavily concentrated in the new Texas Republic. The new Canadian states are a joke though. They would either head to the California Republic or Texas.
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Old 31st December 2008, 07:19 PM   #36
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Oh, come on now!! Do you folks really not understand that if the western US fractures, it will be about 2/3rd the way up the California coast and west of the Cascades? We'll invite BC in, too. The generic term is "Ecotopia", all us tree-huggers will dropkick the Bootiful Peepul of SoCal, and the stinking desert watered with OUR rivers of Nevada and eastern/southern California. It's not clear whether the post-Silicon Valley revolution Bay Area will still join us, or not.

Of course, we will recognize the ex-Californians' Right of Return to the Golden State, en masse, if they so desire...

Seriously, this guy sounds a few needles short of a tree bough.


Ecotopia is a decent novel, if a little dated now, that brought the idea forward.
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Old 31st December 2008, 07:26 PM   #37
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I always thought this was a more likely scenario ....

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Old 31st December 2008, 07:57 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by drkitten View Post
Reminds me a little bit of the map for the old _Shadowrun_ game. (FASA? Is that who published it?)

... a game that suffered from the same flaws, really, as the theory under discussion. Wicked cool concept, totally unworkable mechanics, entirely unrealistic outcome.

... and basically unplayable.

I think the FASA game you're thinking of was "Crimson Skies." It was a fun, if clunky, little boardgame - but it did have air pirates based in zeppelins, which is kinda cool.
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Old 31st December 2008, 08:57 PM   #39
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The idea of South Carolina joining the EU is very amusing. If this was the kind of analysis the KGB offered no wonder the USSR is now just a footnote in history. Imagine the poor Politburo always waiting for the predicted dissolution of America into one giant, tyrannical super corporation that never happens. "Our experts say they'll all sell their own mother into slavery for more money so why aren't they doing it?"
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Old 31st December 2008, 09:30 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by Giggywig View Post
Mexican influence? We couldn't influence Belize if we tried.
I, for one, am trying to imagine what on earth the sinister "Canadian influence" could possibly consist of. Does it mean hockey's popularity skyrockets, or that maple syrup sales triple?
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