Paranormal activity decreasing?!?

[greymatters]

What Happened to Weird?
by Ransom Riggs - February 26, 2009 - 11:53 AM

Quote:

Despite the number of paranormal investigation reality shows on the air these days — which I’d wager have been multiplying recently more because they’re inexpensive to produce than because paranormal activity is on the rise — it seems like sightings are on the decline. The Guardian ran an article a few years ago to that effect, and cited some interesting facts:

Edited by Gaspode:

Breach of Rule 4 removed.

[Ernie M]

I present the following theories as to why paranormal activity may be decreasing. Please review them and feel free to comment. Don't hesitate to add you own theories as to what might be causing this apparent decline of paranormal activity.

• Nessie sighting are down
Theory #1: Nessie drowned after taking in a mouth full of water while laughing.
Theory #2: Nessie's been around so long and finally died of old age.

• Hauntings on the wane.
Theory #1: In general, ghosts are refusing to perform because they feel misrepresented. After all these years, they are getting of tired being asked to "make a knocking noise," when they feel they could do so much more.

Theory #2: Ghosts are tired of having their image portrayed with an infrared thermal camera, because they can't be seen clearly. They have repeatedly asked for the lights to be on while posing for a decent digital camera, but the paranormal investigators and producers of TV shows have refused to take pictures with the lights on.

Theory #3: As a result of improper representation, ghosts have formed a type of labor union/actor's guild, and won't perform until properly recognized as serious entities.

• UFOs aren't stopping by as often.
Theory #1: Some of the intelligent extraterrestrials feel that Stan Romanek let them down because he didn't release the entire video when they visited his house, so are limiting their appearances. Also, they aren't happy because Denver hasn't fully formed the extraterrestrial affairs commission that Jeff Peckman proposed.

[Safe-Keeper]

What immediately comes to mind in my eyes is this: What other sightings are on the rise? Could be that they're trading one bowl of soup for another.

[Ashles]

I guess it gets harder to exaggerate a mundane experience when you are in fear of people simply asking
"Why didn't you record it on your camera/video phone?"

[Drudgewire]

Originally Posted by Ernie M

Theory #2: Nessie's been around so long and finally died of old age.

Yeah well then why aren't Nessie ghost sightings on the rise Mr. Smarty Pants?

[Soapy Sam]

I predicted several years ago that the advent of cheap digital cameras spelled the end of many "sightings". I underestimated the explosion in cellphone use though- and that they would also feature cameras.
(Nor did I anticipate the identification of digital artifacts - orbs, rods etc) as "paranormal". Even to many believers, that was just stretching credulity too far.

When someone claims to have seen something these days, the first question is "Did you get a photo?" And "No" is a pretty unbelievable answer.

[Ernie M]

Originally Posted by Drudgewire

Yeah well then why aren't Nessie ghost sightings on the rise Mr. Smarty Pants? http://www.lethalwrestling.com/upload/colbert.gif

Nessie lived a full and happy life, and therefore, "crossed-over" while happy, so didn't have to stick around for a residual haunting due to unfinished business.

[Hellbound]

Nah.

I bet the aliens finally found Nessie, and decided to abduct her for study. This ticked the ghosts off, though, because Nessie was always a cheerful sort, and never hesitated to cover the tab at the bar. So the aliens fled with Nessie, and the ghosts went in pursuit.

Eventually they'll be back.

[Miss_Kitt]

I wonder, has anyone examined the possibility that the former UFO viewers / ghost haunted folks are now Conspiracy Theorists, seeing NWO death camps, martial law in Hayden Lake, ID, and tests of the plane-crash equipment in the Hudson landing?

I'm not sure what forms of whackjob woo are big in England, though. Maybe they're now campaigning against vaccination for diseases?

[Safe-Keeper]

Quote:

Tony Cornell is a vice-president of the Society for Psychical Research, the UK’s most prestigious ghost-busting association. Cornell has been investigating ghosts for 50 years but hasn’t been using his £8,000 of poltergeist-detecting equipment of late. “The society used to get maybe 60 to 80 reports of ghosts in a year,” he says. “Now we get none. None at all. A remarkable decline. It is still very strange.”

This needn't mean there are less ghost sightings, just that it's become less popular to report them to ghost hunters.

[ExMinister]

Perhaps people have switched to magically thinking their economic woes away using the Secret, and are just too busy to notice ghosts.

[Dunstan]

Skeptics have been using their negative skeptical energy to suppress paranormal activity.

[fromdownunder]

Did it occur to anyone that the ghosts may be dying?

Norm

[Akhenaten]

Originally Posted by Miss_Kitt

I wonder, has anyone examined the possibility that the former UFO viewers / ghost haunted folks are now Conspiracy Theorists, seeing NWO death camps, martial law in Hayden Lake, ID, and tests of the plane-crash equipment in the Hudson landing?

I'm not sure what forms of whackjob woo are big in England, though. Maybe they're now campaigning against vaccination for diseases?

I'm too lazy to examine the possibilty, but it sounds so reasonable that I'm going to go with it. It's very reminiscent of the way in which the god of the gaps is getting smaller and smaller as our knowledge of life, the Universe and everything increases.

I'm not sure that Australians subscribe to major conspiracy theories in a big way. Most of us seem content to blame politicians for everything that goes wrong, but due to incompetence rather than malice. We don't suspect people of trying to take over the world when we wouldn't even trust them to run a chook raffle.

[Limbo]

If paranormal activity is decreasing it could be part of a long-term decline and recovery trend.

"There are reasons, alas, to doubt that any given protocol will in fact remain robust and repeatable. This is surely one of the main reasons psi remains barricaded on the wrong side of the gates of science. Skeptics claim that replication problems are due to early apparently positive results being nothing more than errors, fraud, or simple coincidence, swiftly erased when the errors are located and corrected, the frauds hounded out of the laboratory, and coincidences dry up, as they must in any random process.

Plenty of close analysis by parapsychologists has demonstrated the futility of these simple explanations. Patterns were found early by such researchers as Dr. J. B. Rhine, who noticed in the handwritten records of card-guessing experiments that results tended to be abnormally positive at the start of a run, fall away toward chance, or even below, but then rebound somewhat, forming a sort of U shape. Rhine recommended attention to this modified-decline effect as a signal of the activity of psi, and indeed it was found subsequently in earlier records when they were examined. These days, Rhine's ready acceptance of this curious sag and rebound is cast into doubt by the discovery (or at least the claim) that later observers can exert a psychokinetic influence backward in time, modifying or corrupting whatever pressure the participant was attempting to exert.

If that kind of temporal entanglement turns out to be important, it's possible that Rhine and his obedient followers were themselves creating the U-shaped pattern in the old results. This way lies madness, you might suppose. Such "explanations" have the distinct look of cop-outs, post facto rationalizations. But decline effects are ubiquitous in anomalies research. Attention must be paid.

In 2001 Dr. Dick Bierman published a most unnerving study of failures to replicate apparently well-established anomalous phenomena. What he seems to have demonstrated is not just that psi declines within a given experimental run, nor even within the history of a particular participant or experimenter (which might be attributable to boredom or exhaustion), but within whole paradigms of research. Mapping six different paradigms - attempts to exert mental control over tumbling dice, early use of ganzfeld telepathy protocol, subsequent improved protocols using completely automated elements, precognitive card guessing, attempts to manipulate random number generator output by directed attention, and attempts to manipulate living systems by directed attention - Bierman showed vividly how over time the scatter of experimental scoring created a downward curve toward the mean and non-significance, and usually then continued on below the mean (negative scoring).

It was as if the light was dimming from one decade to the next, eyes struggling to compensate, hands reaching uneasily, knocking things over, blindness. And all of this working unconsciously, for most of us.

With the dice throwing, results hit the mean around 1979 and dropped under it. Early ganzfeld experiments dipped savagely in the mid-1990s. Something similar clearly occurred in attempts to modify the responses of living creatures, although previous dates are not available. Could this be some kind of secular oscillation or cycle, akin to the LST or to solar cycles marked by sunspots (but longer), or the great cycle of global heating and cooling (but very much shorter)? If so, one might expect to see a rebound from these dismal declines, should they continue long enough. And indeed, that is pretty much what Bierman found in the majority of databases recording results of attempts to modify random number generators by PK. Here the slow attenuation from 1955 to around the middle of the 1970s slowly reversed and climbed again to previous levels of effectiveness by 1990. In the center of that curve was a decade where average results were flat, although, of course, individual experiments continued to manifest scores above and below the mean.

More careful examination of several of these databases also showed a certain extended U-shaped pattern of decline and recovery. But the structure of experiments are also importantly variable. For example, Roger Nelson has commented:

"PEAR REG work does have declines (and some inclines, to be sure). But also the experiment evolved through several major versions, and there are a number of changing aspects even in the most basic manifestations: The Operators (participants) were numerous, and our protocol allowed them to take most of the 'experimenter' role; several potential modulators were always available as options (source of instruction, number of trials per button press, nature of feedback, etc.); remote and offtime operation was tested; and so on. Also, and most important, the attitude and intention of the PEAR REG program was perhaps a bit different from what you might find in some replication efforts. For me it was nicely expressed in a Sufi saying: 'Have fun, or try to learn something. If you do, you will annoy someone; if you don't, you will annoy someone.' (Private communication, February 11, 2007)"

If long-term decline and recovery trends are corroborated, we'll have another quite striking psi regularity, one not observed or expected from random coincidence. What could be responsible? That is a question requiring a theoretical answer, one that will drive experiments in the direction of greater specificity, accuracy, and, well, with luck, some satisfying explanation of this damned irritating phenomenon."

Outside the Gates of Science: Why It's Time for the Paranormal to Come in from the Cold by Damien Broderick, page 161-164

[ChongLee]

Originally Posted by Ernie M

• Hauntings on the wane.

• UFOs aren't stopping by as often.

My added theories are:

• Hauntings have declined because the horror film industries have successfully taken over the business. More and more ghosts have applied for unemployment.

• UFOs aren't stopping by much anymore because the price of fuel have been ridiculously expensive for the past 7 years. We'll just have to see if the coming of "change" will result in the returning of "ET".

[JohnG]

Originally Posted by Ernie M

• Nessie sighting are down
Theory #1: Nessie drowned after taking in a mouth full of water while laughing.
Theory #2: Nessie's been around so long and finally died of old age.

As always, The History Channel is way ahead of you. It recently devoted a program to the premise that the Loch Ness Monster did exist, but had recently died. The program was about a search for its corpse.

No, I'm not kidding.

All in all it's a very neat rationalization for why some beloved paranormal phenomenon cannot be proven. It did once exist, you see, but it is dead, or is in hiding from modern technology, or has evaporated into the ether due to lack of faith. That way you don't need to abandon your belief in whatever. Indeed you were right to believe in it all along, it's just that it was somehow recently destroyed or banished by modern man.

[Ersby]

The decline in UFO sightings is interesting. Previously, sudden increases in UFO activity has been linked to heightened paranoia about enemy states, ie the "airship flap" pre World War One, the high level of sightings during the Cold War.

These days there's plenty of paranoia around, but the enemy isn't a nation state with an air force, but a disparate collection of organisations who's tactics involve attacking from within, not above. Which is why the public isn't getting spooked by unexplained atmospheric phenomena.

Just thinking off the top of my head.

[Cuddles]

Originally Posted by Ersby

The decline in UFO sightings is interesting. Previously, sudden increases in UFO activity has been linked to heightened paranoia about enemy states, ie the "airship flap" pre World War One, the high level of sightings during the Cold War.

These days there's plenty of paranoia around, but the enemy isn't a nation state with an air force, but a disparate collection of organisations who's tactics involve attacking from within, not above. Which is why the public isn't getting spooked by unexplained atmospheric phenomena.

Just thinking off the top of my head.

Doesn't sound too implausible. I think another factor could be just familiarity. UFOs first became popular before we really had a solid presence in space. Space was mostly the domain of sci-fi, futurism and aliens, and with one being fiction and another not having arrived yet, aliens were the obvious choice for any mysterious things in the sky. However, we are now at a point where pretty much everyone and his dog is involved with space. Everyone knows that there are tons of satellites in the sky that we've put there, most people are aware that at least things like the ISS and Iridium are clearly visible at times, space tourism is a real, albiet still rather expensive, phenomenon and even private companies are starting to make regular rocket launches.

Aliens, demons, ghosts and so on have always been given as explanations for the unknown. Space just isn't anything like as unknown as it used to be, so aliens have lost a lot of ground.

[fromdownunder]

Originally Posted by JohnG

All in all it's a very neat rationalization for why some beloved paranormal phenomenon cannot be proven. It did once exist, you see, but it is dead, or is in hiding from modern technology, or has evaporated into the ether due to lack of faith. That way you don't need to abandon your belief in whatever. Indeed you were right to believe in it all along, it's just that it was somehow recently destroyed or banished by modern man.

See the Star Trek (the origiinasl series) episode, Who Mourns for Adonis?

Norm

[JohnG]

Originally Posted by fromdownunder

See the Star Trek (the origiinasl series) episode, Who Mourns for Adonis?

Norm

Oh, I have. Many times. Poor Apollo. Would it have hurt them to gather a few laurel leaves?

[paiute]

Originally Posted by Ernie M

I present the following theories....

Your theories are really hypotheses.

[Ernie M]

ChongLee:

Originally Posted by ChongLee

My added theories are:

• Hauntings have declined because the horror film industries have successfully taken over the business. More and more ghosts have applied for unemployment.

• UFOs aren't stopping by much anymore because the price of fuel have been ridiculously expensive for the past 7 years. We'll just have to see if the coming of "change" will result in the returning of "ET".

I can definitely see the cost of fuel keeping "ET" from returning to Earth, because of the distance. I know it costs a lot to ship blueberries from Chile, or California, to here on the east coast of the United States so I can put blueberries in my cereal, so I can understand that galactic travel could be expensive.

Perhaps on a future visit, someone on Earth can leave a cell phone for the "ET's" so they could call? I mean, if people leave milk and cookies for Santa Claus at Christmas, why not leave a cell phone for "ET?" "ET" could make good use of an "in network" calling plan, thereby saving on fuel costs. Besides, "ET" could send text messages, download travel maps of interesting places to visit, and use the GPS feature in case they get lost.

JohnG:

Originally Posted by JohnG

As always, The History Channel is way ahead of you. It recently devoted a program to the premise that the Loch Ness Monster did exist, but had recently died. The program was about a search for its corpse.

No, I'm not kidding.

All in all it's a very neat rationalization for why some beloved paranormal phenomenon cannot be proven. It did once exist, you see, but it is dead, or is in hiding from modern technology, or has evaporated into the ether due to lack of faith. That way you don't need to abandon your belief in whatever. Indeed you were right to believe in it all along, it's just that it was somehow recently destroyed or banished by modern man.

Darn it, I'm going to have a talk with my spirit guide- it looks like he talked with the History Channel before letting me know that Nessie died.

paiute:

Originally Posted by paiute

Your theories are really hypotheses.

I made a mistake. Thank you for the correction.

[fls]

Originally Posted by Limbo

If paranormal activity is decreasing it could be part of a long-term decline and recovery trend.

"There are reasons, alas, to doubt that any given protocol will in fact remain robust and repeatable. This is surely one of the main reasons psi remains barricaded on the wrong side of the gates of science. Skeptics claim that replication problems are due to early apparently positive results being nothing more than errors, fraud, or simple coincidence, swiftly erased when the errors are located and corrected, the frauds hounded out of the laboratory, and coincidences dry up, as they must in any random process.

I.E. the patterns formed by regression to the mean, chance, and removal of bias provide the same pattern of results as those seen in paranormal research.

Quote:

Plenty of close analysis by parapsychologists has demonstrated the futility of these simple explanations.

I.E. if we hold evidence for the pattern of chance and bias to a different standard than used when looking for evidence against the pattern - a standard that may miss the pattern more often than it will find it - we will allow ourselves to pretend that the pattern doesn't exist.

I calculated in a previous thread that Radin had a 40% chance of missing the effect of this artifact in his analysis of presentiment experiments. It hardly inspires confidence that it isn't there if you have a 40% chance of being wrong.

Linda

[kittynh]

decline here, but on the increase in other parts of the world.

Mexico has a UFO/Alien invasion that should kick the drug cartel violence off the front pages (and it often does). Even China, a place with no UFO sightings a few years ago is now reporting those pesky grays invading.

I'm giving a talk entitled "Mexico, the New Roswell".

Mind you nothing happened at Roswell, and nothing is happening in Mexico but the media there loves a good UFO story. Remember here in the US Ufo were coming to warn us to stop the Cold War and get rid of our nukes. In Mexico things are pretty grim. A UFO or alien makes people feel better. Really. Something BIGGER than the violence and such is happening.

You want UFOs just go to youtube and type in "Mexico UFO"